2018 CFP Rankings

[Dizzyphil]

bama fans can cry me a river, on a ND forum, with Irish fans, when 25% of alabama's regular season schedule does not include AR State, LA-Lafayette, and The Citadel.

 

[ulukinatme]

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dame's record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

I'm not gonna speculate every year, but this year? 11-1 regular season baring a hiccup, with the lone loss being 'Bama of course. We just played LSU at the end of last year and we're a better team defensively right now. Offensively the OL is a bit weaker, but arguably the offense is firing on all cylinders better. Now, granted, depending on how the schedule shook out we could be looking at 10-2. If we played LSU like we did Pittsburgh that would likely be a loss, but if Pitt is replaced with Ole Miss, Arkansas, etc we still probably win after having a bad game.

 

[RDU Irish]

That's a bullshit standard when you're trying to compare how we would do in the SECW vs. how you have done. You don't have to to play yourselves. The only way to make an apple to apple comparison is to give us your schedule.

Bingo! Getting to the top is a different schedule than staying on top. The only caveat for ND is Wimbush would probably be our QB and we would not be optimizing our offense if we had Bama's schedule.

(neutral site) Louisville - hot garbage easy win
Arkansas State ain't no Ball State
@ Mississippi - Look out they can score! (until good D like Bama, LSU or Auburn holds them to 7, 16 and 16 respectively)
TAMU - might have exposed Wimbush but hard to imagine we don't show up for our first real opponent of the year at home
LA-Lafayette ain't no Wake Forest or Vandy or Pitt or you get the point
@ Arkansas who lost to Co State AND North Texas this year
Mizzou - best win probably Purdue by 3 or Memphis by a lot and a "should have won" vs KY
@ Tennessee who is really good at losing reliably to good teams
BYE week - as if we need to catch our breath
@ LSU - dammit they make us play at their place every other year! Good thing any respectible defense can keep them under 10 points
MSST - WTF are they doing at #21? Thank God or else we would need
Citadel and
Auburn to provide us some SoS


I see us going undefeated easier on that schedule than ours - again, caveat being Book staying on the bench and Wimbush costing a game more likely to happen. What makes it easy is the spacing and 4 byes along with some pretty mediocre SEC West opponents.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Well, if we are in the SEC West, and we had 3-4 byes,.... that means we likely stopped caring about academics too. So if all that is a fair assumption, our recruiting would be a lot better, but we'd be second every year to a Satan coached Bama lol. But, if all that did happen, Satan would jump ship and come to ND and be a good Catholic, so really, ND would win the West every year.

So... 8-5 most years, an occasional 9-4, and 10 wins every five years or so?

 

[T Town Tommy]

That's a bullshit standard when you're trying to compare how we would do in the SECW vs. how you have done. You don't have to to play yourselves. The only way to make an apple to apple comparison is to give us your schedule.

I asked how Notre Dame would do as a member of the SEC West. Not how Notre Dame would do against Bama's schedule.

 

[stlnd01]

I asked how Notre Dame would do as a member of the SEC West. Not how Notre Dame would do against Bama's schedule.

This year? They’d lose to Bama (who wouldn’t?), LSU would be a tossup, ND should beat the rest. Could see an LSU game go either way but right now I think we have a better team than the one that beat LSU in a close game on a neutral field in January. Figure nonconference is USC, Navy and whoever. Throw in a couple teams from the East not named Georgia.

So does an 11-1 Notre Dame team that comes in second in the SEC West deserve a playoff spot?

 

[BabyIrish]

https://youtu.be/5uPUIWm4gfs

Interesting video from Joe Klatt

 

[T Town Tommy]

This year? They’d lose to Bama (who wouldn’t?), LSU would be a tossup, ND should beat the rest. Could see an LSU game go either way but right now I think we have a better team than the one that beat LSU in a close game on a neutral field in January. Figure nonconference is USC, Navy and whoever. Throw in a couple teams from the East not named Georgia.

So does an 11-1 Notre Dame team that comes in second in the SEC West deserve a playoff spot?

Would depend on who the loss was to and what the results were for other teams in other conferences. I think most years coming in second in the SEC West isn’t going to be good enough for any team.

 

[stlnd01]

Would depend on who the loss was to and what the results were for other teams in other conferences. I think most years coming in second in the SEC West isn’t going to be good enough for any team.

Unless you’re Bama.

 

[ND88]

Unless you’re Bama.

They’d have to lose 1 game AND the eye test.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Unless you’re Bama.

Even Bama. They were only able to get in last year due to Wisconsin losing. Otherwise they don’t make it. Don’t know about you but I would rather not have to depend on someone else losing in order to make the playoffs. Better to win out and not have to worry about it

 

[ThePiombino]

Nothing new on the subject of confirmation bias, but the Beamer stuff was interesting for sure.

https://youtu.be/5uPUIWm4gfs

Interesting video from Joe Klatt

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

 

[ickythump1225]

I asked how Notre Dame would do as a member of the SEC West. Not how Notre Dame would do against Bama's schedule.

You asked it in the context of comparison to Alabama. The only fair way to make that comparison is to have us play your schedule.

 

[stlnd01]

Even Bama. They were only able to get in last year due to Wisconsin losing. Otherwise they don’t make it. Don’t know about you but I would rather not have to depend on someone else losing in order to make the playoffs. Better to win out and not have to worry about it

Of course it’s better to win out. But if Bama loses close to LSU this weekend they’re likely still a top four team come playoff time. The only one-loss, non-SEC team that might get in over them would be the winner of Michigan/OSU.

 

[Irish YJ]

3T/Bish,

So let's compare things with this years schedules, and normalize the teams given their average performance over the last 10 years. I can make it more scientific by getting their final rankings if you want, but for this i'm guestimating.

I'll line teams up as close as possible going from best team on each's schedule to worst. Feel free to change the order.

Stanford / LSU
USC / Aub
FSU / TAMU
Mich / MissSt
VT / TN
Syr / Louis
NW / Miz
Pitt / Miss
Navy / Ark
Wake / Ark St
Vandy / Louisianna
Ball St / Cit

Still trying to understand the thing about surviving in the SEC W.
I'd bet that the most teams on ND's schedule have a higher average end of season raking than Bama and their SEC W schedule.

 

[phork]

Reading through and catching up to this thread. This year is why conference champs should not have Auto-Bids. The Pac12 and to a lesser extent the BIG12 are garbage. Their Conf champ is not one of the best 4 teams. Maybe 8, definitely not 4.

 

[ickythump1225]

Reading through and catching up to this thread. This year is why conference champs should not have Auto-Bids. The Pac12 and to a lesser extent the BIG12 are garbage. Their Conf champ is not one of the best 4 teams. Maybe 8, definitely not 4.

I don't support auto bids either. I actually don't like the playoffs, I hate the committee more than the BCS, and want to go back to the BCS bowl system with a +1 NCG the week after New Year's bowl games.

 

[Circa]

Even Bama. They were only able to get in last year due to Wisconsin losing. Otherwise they don’t make it. Don’t know about you but I would rather not have to depend on someone else losing in order to make the playoffs. Better to win out and not have to worry about it

God you are so damn condescending.

 

[Bishop2b5]

3T/Bish,

So let's compare things with this years schedules, and normalize the teams given their average performance over the last 10 years. I can make it more scientific by getting their final rankings if you want, but for this i'm guestimating.

I'll line teams up as close as possible going from best team on each's schedule to worst. Feel free to change the order.

Stanford / LSU
USC / Aub
FSU / TAMU
Mich / MissSt
VT / TN
Syr / Louis
NW / Miz
Pitt / Miss
Navy / Ark
Wake / Ark St
Vandy / Louisianna
Ball St / Cit

Still trying to understand the thing about surviving in the SEC W.
I'd bet that the most teams on ND's schedule have a higher average end of season raking than Bama and their SEC W schedule.

This year is a little odd. Your schedule looked brutal in August, but became a lot weaker as many of your opponents are having a down year (much as ours did last year). Bama's schedule is probably about what was expected at the start of this year. Any single season doesn't really reflect what playing in the SECW is like in general though. Occasionally it's weak other than Bama, but most years it's a tough row to hoe with multiple teams able to beat you any given Saturday. I know you guys like to bitch about our schedule, but according to Sagarin, Bama's had a tougher schedule than ND 8 of the past 10 seasons (2008-2017).

 

[T Town Tommy]

You asked it in the context of comparison to Alabama. The only fair way to make that comparison is to have us play your schedule.

I asked YJ (who happens to be one of my favorite posters out here) how the Irish would fair year over year as a member of the SEC West. I thought I was clear enough but evidently for some I was not.

 

[T Town Tommy]

God you are so damn condescending.

How so?

Unlike a lot of Bammers, I don't take any team lightly and think you can lose on any given Saturday. Neither do I come on here and paint sunshine and unicorns when Bama does win. Quite the contrary. I rarely post in the appropriate threads on this board about Bama's game.

 

[NDRock]

This year is a little odd. Your schedule looked brutal in August, but became a lot weaker as many of your opponents are having a down year (much as ours did last year). Bama's schedule is probably about what was expected at the start of this year. Any single season doesn't really reflect what playing in the SECW is like in general though. Occasionally it's weak other than Bama, but most years it's a tough row to hoe with multiple teams able to beat you any given Saturday. I know you guys like to bitch about our schedule, but according to Sagarin, Bama's had a tougher schedule than ND 8 of the past 10 seasons (2008-2017).

Can you provide a link? Or at least one that only has regular season. Bama’s SOS is always good at the end because of the SEC CG, playoffs, etc... I’m interested in regular season.

 

[stlnd01]

I don't support auto bids either. I actually don't like the playoffs, I hate the committee more than the BCS, and want to go back to the BCS bowl system with a +1 NCG the week after New Year's bowl games.

I tend to agree. There was this endless drumbeat that the BCS was so terrible, but most years - all but one or two, really - they got it right. And adding a +1 championship game would make getting it right even clearer.

I don't mind the four team playoff, but all you've really done is swap a debate between No. 2 and 3 for a debate between No. 4 and 5. Not a big difference.

I worry expanding to eight - though it appears inevitable - will water down the regular season and discourage teams from playing big-time nonconference games (which is one of the more fun things about college football, IMO).

 

[stlnd01]

This year is a little odd. Your schedule looked brutal in August, but became a lot weaker as many of your opponents are having a down year (much as ours did last year). Bama's schedule is probably about what was expected at the start of this year. Any single season doesn't really reflect what playing in the SECW is like in general though. Occasionally it's weak other than Bama, but most years it's a tough row to hoe with multiple teams able to beat you any given Saturday. I know you guys like to bitch about our schedule, but according to Sagarin, Bama's had a tougher schedule than ND 8 of the past 10 seasons (2008-2017).

"It's just a week in, week out grind of a schedule. Everybody's playing to win and these programs do not like each other. In this conference you never know what's going to happen until they strap on the helmets and start playin' ball."

 

[T Town Tommy]

I tend to agree. There was this endless drumbeat that the BCS was so terrible, but most years - all but one or two, really - they got it right. And adding a +1 championship game would make getting it right even clearer.

I don't mind the four team playoff, but all you've really done is swap a debate between No. 2 and 3 for a debate between No. 4 and 5. Not a big difference.

I worry expanding to eight - though it appears inevitable - will water down the regular season and discourage teams from playing big-time nonconference games (which is one of the more fun things about college football, IMO).

I think that with some of the current court litigations concerning ametuer college athletics, we may end up with four superconferences within the next decade and that will drive a four team playoff with conference champs. Additional at large bids may or may not be a consideration. Hope I am wrong as the outcome of some of the cases could change college athletics as we know it.

As it stands right now, I go back and forth on automatic bids. A part of me wants to believe that it would create stronger OOC games as teams don't have to worry about wins and losses. Another side of me believes that it would not. For the near future, I don't think the conference commissioners are interested in expansion.

 

[stlnd01]

How so?

Unlike a lot of Bammers, I don't take any team lightly and think you can lose on any given Saturday. Neither do I come on here and paint sunshine and unicorns when Bama does win. Quite the contrary. I rarely post in the appropriate threads on this board about Bama's game.

You're a good sport and a quality poster (unlike that Haverford character who shows up whenever Michigan's winning). Don't take it personal. I just think people get a little bent when people act like 'Bama is just like any other program. They're not. They're really really good these days. And for that they get a benefit of the doubt - call it "the eye test" - that other programs won't. I'm not saying they don't deserve it. I tend to think they do. But I get why it rubs people wrong.

As a hypothetical: Let's say Bama loses close to LSU this weekend, and Notre Dame loses close to Syracuse (best team we have left) in a couple weeks. Whose more likely to be the fourth playoff team? Alabama (best win: A&M/Miss. State) or Notre Dame (best win: Michigan)?
I think we all know how that's going to go.

You can say they only squeaked in last year because Wisconsin lost, and I suppose that's true. But it was Alabama who squeaked in despite not winning their conference. And it could easily happen again this year.

 

[Irish#1]

This year is a little odd. Your schedule looked brutal in August, but became a lot weaker as many of your opponents are having a down year (much as ours did last year). Bama's schedule is probably about what was expected at the start of this year. Any single season doesn't really reflect what playing in the SECW is like in general though. Occasionally it's weak other than Bama, but most years it's a tough row to hoe with multiple teams able to beat you any given Saturday. I know you guys like to bitch about our schedule, but according to Sagarin, Bama's had a tougher schedule than ND 8 of the past 10 seasons (2008-2017).

There's that SEC bias showing up. Throw out specific years and looking at it in general. If you strip out Clemson for Bama and insert ACC Atlantic teams FSU, NCS, Syracuse and Louisville and you have a comparable schedule to SECW.

Overall, I would say the Big 10 East with, OSU, MSU, Mich, PSU is on par if not more formidable than the SECW on a regular basis.

 

[T Town Tommy]

You're a good sport and a quality poster (unlike that Haverford character who shows up whenever Michigan's winning). Don't take it personal. I just think people get a little bent when people act like 'Bama is just like any other program. They're not. They're really really good these days. And for that they get a benefit of the doubt - call it "the eye test" - that other programs won't. I'm not saying they don't deserve it. I tend to think they do. But I get why it rubs people wrong.

As a hypothetical: Let's say Bama loses close to LSU this weekend, and Notre Dame loses close to Syracuse (best team we have left) in a couple weeks. Whose more likely to be the fourth playoff team? Alabama (best win: A&M/Miss. State) or Notre Dame (best win: Michigan)?
I think we all know how that's going to go.

You can say they only squeaked in last year because Wisconsin lost, and I suppose that's true. But it was Alabama who squeaked in despite not winning their conference. And it could easily happen again this year.

That would be a tough one for me as I don't think either team's schedule this season is doing them any favors. I do think that the narrative for a one loss Notre Dame not making the playoffs is already being laid out by some of the talking heads in sports media. Luckily they don't get a vote, but I do think they are at least heard by some on the committee.

 

[stlnd01]

That would be a tough one for me as I don't think either team's schedule this season is doing them any favors. I do think that the narrative for a one loss Notre Dame not making the playoffs is already being laid out by some of the talking heads in sports media. Luckily they don't get a vote, but I do think they are at least heard by some on the committee.

As our schedule has weakened (through no fault of our own, unless you count spraining Bryce Love's ankle), it feels like the narrative has shifted from "a one-loss ND probably makes it" to "one loss and ND is out." We'll see how things break, but there could be very some interesting debates around one-loss teams come the end of the season.

 

[Blaise]

As our schedule has weakened (through no fault of our own, unless you count spraining Bryce Love's ankle), it feels like the narrative has shifted from "a one-loss ND probably makes it" to "one loss and ND is out." We'll see how things break, but there could be very some interesting debates around one-loss teams come the end of the season.

If Bama and Clemson go undefeated, ND loses a close game, I think the debate between ND, MI/OSU, Oklahoma, Wash ST would be crazy and super interesting