I know the likelihood of those teams all running the table is basically nonexistent. But even with the one-loss field, ND will still need a lot of luck to get into the top 4. They basically need to beat Stanford and then have the Trees go on to win the PAC (a two-loss conf. champ will take a back seat to ND in this case because of head-to-head). They also need one other conference champ/leader to have two losses when it's said and done. THEN they need the committee to not over value conference champions and put a two-loss champ in ahead of one-loss ND.
I disagree. If we win out, and nothing badshit crazy happens, I think we're in the Top 4. This is the current AP Top 10:
tOSU
Baylor
Clemson
LSU
TCU
Michigan State
Alabama
Stanford
Us
Iowa
tOSU or Michigan State will drop when they play each other, and both teams could drop if Michigan beats tOSU, but I have a feeling tOSU wins out and someone from the B1G will be in the playoff anyway more than likely. In either case, we move up one here to #8 eventually.
LSU and Alabama play, so same scenario, one will drop and even if they don't, both aren't likely to get into the playoff so you have to eliminate one of them.
Baylor and TCU play, same scenario, both won't likely get in so one will drop.
That puts us at #6 just based on standard elimination.
We play Stanford, and if we win that puts us at #5.
As a hypothetical, that leaves say...tOSU, Alabama, TCU probably, and Clemson ahead of us. We obviously can't jump Clemson since they beat us, and maybe they lose, but I think they have the easiest road to the playoff now and I think the 2 point loss looks mighty good if they win out. I think tOSU and Alabama win out, but both still have a couple big games left and either way I don't see the SEC or B1G getting left out of the playoff, someone will take that spot most likely. Who is left? The Big 12 and TCU. TCU is a good team, but they've looked beatable at times. They struggled with Minnesota, barely won a shootout with Texas Tech, won a 1 possession game to a struggling Kansas State team, and weren't exactly that impressive against Iowa State. TCU's toughest games are still coming up with Baylor, OK State, and Oklahoma. Oklahoma is probably the best of these 3 teams, their Texas loss was a fluke night against a big rival and Texas has gotten better since September. If TCU picks up one loss they're likely done since their schedule is not very good and they have no conference championship to fall back on. That's where the 2 point loss to an undefeated Clemson would work in our favor.
We already know the Big 12 is going to cannibalize each other, it's just a matter of time. One team could escape unscathed, but it's unlikely. Pray for every Big 12 team to have at least 1 loss. If that happens and we win out, we're in.
I'm not going to go over any scenarios where a team jumps us again simply because it won't matter, they would likely be taking a playoff spot from a conference member ahead of them.