2017 Bold Prediction thread

[koonja]

Koon, since you seem to be enamored with Georgia's RBs and are confident in them having a good OL.

Imagine you were given the option for the game to decide who we have on our sideline: would you take Georgia's OL/RBs vs our OL/RBs (it's a packaged deal)? Would you take their QB over Wimbush? Would you take their TEs over ours? WRs?

We'll cover defense next but I'm curious which position groups you'd honestly swap with Georgia.

That's a fair question. I'd take our package of OL/RBs, but I don't think that's an easy answer. As talented as our OL has been individually with HH, they never dominate in the way we expect them to. And I think Chubb/Sony/5 star freshman will be better than our backs this year. However - who do I expect to have more success in the game? I expect their package, because they'll be going against our defense, and we'll be going against theirs, which is significantly better IMO.

I would take Eason this year over Wimbush. He's the higher rated player coming out of highschool, and I'll take 1 year's starting experience over 2 years sitting the bench any day.

I don't know enough about their TEs to make a guess there.

I'd take their WRs. We have ESB and that's about it now. No one else is claiming the #2 spot, let alone #3, and back up spots.

 

[IrishLion]

Bold prediction:

Greer Martini leads the team in TFL's by a very wide margin. Teams will be so worried about Morgan and Tranquill after they make life tough for UGA's RB's in week 2, that Martini is gonna be left to feast with opportunistic gameplans the rest of the way.

Notre Dame beats UGA soundly, complete with a timely turnover and a huge play-action passing play over the top, and we are all reminded of the game at OU in '12.

Ohio State wins the playoff, and ND gets rid of BK to make room for Urban. Urban actually comes to ND this time, fueled by his ego after Savvy Jack whispers sweet everythings into his ear, like "Win a Natty at ND and be remembered as the GOAT, even better than Saban"

Urban gets here and goes 7-6 in 2018.

 

[Meatloaf]

I would take Eason this year over Wimbush. He's the higher rated player coming out of highschool, and I'll take 1 year's starting experience over 2 years sitting the bench any day.

Really disagree with this as I think you way overvaluing Eason's year of experience. He had rough spring game where he had a sub 50% completion percentage in the first half and is being pushed by a true freshman with no starting experience. I go on the Georgia 247 board every once and a while and many of the posters think Eason should be on a short leash at that Fromm is the better QB. His stats when under pressure last year were terrible and Wimbush is a much better fit for our offense with his athleticism.

Here's also a quote form this article
:

"To be honest, I think (Jacob) Eason is a pretty average quarterback. I really don’t know how much he likes football. It’s hard to dispute his talent, and he can make every throw. But when you watch him, he’s not consistent at all. He’s as physically gifted as anybody around, but he doesn’t scare you."

 

[koonja]

Really disagree with this as I think you way overvaluing Eason's year of experience. He had rough spring game where he had a sub 50% completion percentage in the first half and is being pushed by a true freshman with no starting experience. I go on the Georgia 247 board every once and a while and many of the posters think Eason should be on a short leash at that Fromm is the better QB. His stats when under pressure last year were terrible and Wimbush is a much better fit for our offense with his athleticism.

Here's also a quote form this article
:

"To be honest, I think (Jacob) Eason is a pretty average quarterback. I really don’t know how much he likes football. It’s hard to dispute his talent, and he can make every throw. But when you watch him, he’s not consistent at all. He’s as physically gifted as anybody around, but he doesn’t scare you."

Your point is fair. But all things equal, I'll always take the QB who is starting his 13th game, rather than his 1st game. You cannot emulate game experience, especially on the big stage at night.

And for as many Eason doubters there are, there are others that believe that's a true freshman playing the most difficult position to come in and win at, in a conference that is unforgiving. And they expect him to make a huge stride and show why he was a 5-star this year.

Maybe Wimbush just comes out and blows the doors off, but that's not typically the case for first time starters.

 

[IrishLax]

Please remember Georgia finished the year ranked 59th by F/+ ... they were 68th by S&P+, with an offense that rated 93rd. That's right... 93rd out of 128 eligible FBS teams. Their OL rated 101st in the country.

The only way Georgia is scary is if Eason takes a huge step forward, which is possible. And if their re-tooled OL takes a huge step forward, which is also possible. If the 2016 Georgia shows up, we should be a minimum 10 point favorite... that team was considerably worse than Temple.

 

[woolybug25]

That's a fair question. I'd take our package of OL/RBs, but I don't think that's an easy answer. As talented as our OL has been individually with HH, they never dominate in the way we expect them to. And I think Chubb/Sony/5 star freshman will be better than our backs this year. However - who do I expect to have more success in the game? I expect their package, because they'll be going against our defense, and we'll be going against theirs, which is significantly better IMO.

I would take Eason this year over Wimbush. He's the higher rated player coming out of highschool, and I'll take 1 year's starting experience over 2 years sitting the bench any day.

I don't know enough about their TEs to make a guess there.

I'd take their WRs. We have ESB and that's about it now. No one else is claiming the #2 spot, let alone #3, and back up spots.

Why would you take their WR's? It's literally the worst part of their team with no major contributor returning. In fact, their second leading receiver from last year returns from a massive 130 yard season last year and he is expected to be their #1 guy. They are terrible at the position. You just pulled that one out of your arse, didnt'cha?

https://dawnofthedawg.com/2017/02/10/georgia-football-2017-position-battles-wide-receiver/

Georgia wide receivers without a ‘go-to guy’ in 2017

Kirby Smart:

“I wouldn’t say we’ve got a go-to guy,” Smart said. “I don’t know that we’ve just got a dominant wideout.”

 

[NDRock]

I'd take their WRs. We have ESB and that's about it now. No one else is claiming the #2 spot, let alone #3, and back up spots.

I've listened to a couple of podcasts on camp so far and everyone seems very high on Adams, Jones Jr., and Dexter. I think Mike Frank said that Adams and Jones were definitely two of our best 11 offensive players. That being said, does anyone think we'll play many two back sets? Hopefully we'll play to our strengths this year (OL, RB) and won't have to see many 3 WR sets (a man can dream).

 

[Wild Bill]

That's a fair question. I'd take our package of OL/RBs, but I don't think that's an easy answer. As talented as our OL has been individually with HH, they never dominate in the way we expect them to. And I think Chubb/Sony/5 star freshman will be better than our backs this year. However - who do I expect to have more success in the game? I expect their package, because they'll be going against our defense, and we'll be going against theirs, which is significantly better IMO.

I would take Eason this year over Wimbush. He's the higher rated player coming out of highschool, and I'll take 1 year's starting experience over 2 years sitting the bench any day.

I don't know enough about their TEs to make a guess there.

I'd take their WRs. We have ESB and that's about it now. No one else is claiming the #2 spot, let alone #3, and back up spots.

They have Jeb! Blazevich, a captain, and Isaac Nauta, freshman all american last year. Nauta could be a problem for our secondary, especially if they're running the ball well.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Bold Prediction: ND goes 6-6. Changes in OC and DC cause too much confusion in year one of the new schemes. Respective sides show flashes of brilliance, but just don't get over the hump. DL is thin. Safety is terrible. ND fields an improved, but still mediocre-to-bad defense. Wimbush makes typical mistakes of any first-year-starter. Teams stack the box against ND forcing BW to beat them in the air and with only ESB as a true #1, we see an offense that sputters against better defenses. BK is out as ND's coach.

What I truly think happens: ND goes 9-3 with a top 30 defense and top 20 offense that focuses on the run. The playoffs are out of the question but ND gets paired against a formidable team in a decent bowl game....and wins. 10-3. BK is back next year. 2018 becomes The Year for ND to get back to the playoffs with, what seems to be on paper, an easy schedule and lots of returning starters.

 

[koonja]

Why would you take their WR's? It's literally the worst part of their team with no major contributor returning. In fact, their second leading receiver from last year returns from a massive 130 yard season last year and he is expected to be their #1 guy. They are terrible at the position. You just pulled that one out of your arse, didnt'cha?

https://dawnofthedawg.com/2017/02/10/georgia-football-2017-position-battles-wide-receiver/

Georgia wide receivers without a ‘go-to guy’ in 2017

Kirby Smart:

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose every day.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has production similar to ESB - there's no advantage there for us). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

 

[NDRock]

Please remember Georgia finished the year ranked 59th by F/+ ... they were 68th by S&P+, with an offense that rated 93rd. That's right... 93rd out of 128 eligible FBS teams. Their OL rated 101st in the country.

The only way Georgia is scary is if Eason takes a huge step forward, which is possible. And if their re-tooled OL takes a huge step forward, which is also possible. If the 2016 Georgia shows up, we should be a minimum 10 point favorite... that team was considerably worse than Temple.

That depends, is the 2016 Notre Dame team also showing up? I think Georgia is scary because they have two very good running backs and will probably try to pound it. As of now, I have little faith in our DL and Safety play. Worst case scenario is they run it on us well and then play action us to death and beat us over the top (Eason has a big arm).

I do think this is going to be a huge game for ND's season. A win there and I see a possible 10 win season. We lose and the negativity from last year will pick right back up. I'm not convinced Kirby Smart is very good, so we've got that going for us.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has more career production than ESB). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

Meh. I get that this is a discussion about WRs as an individual position group, but in this offense, I don't personally believe the passing production will come from a #2 and #3 wideout. ESB, Alize, and RBs that can catch out of the backfield, imo, are the ones who will dominate that passing production.

I see Finke as a strong situational player who has the ability to get behind most corners. I don't see him being ND's "it factor" on a weekly basis though. BTW, just my opinon, but this "walk on" flat out destroys our secondary in practice on a regular basis.

 

[IrishLax]

That depends, is the 2016 Notre Dame team also showing up? I think Georgia is scary because they have two very good running backs and will probably try to pound it. As of now, I have little faith in our DL and Safety play. Worst case scenario is they run it on us well and then play action us to death and beat us over the top (Eason has a big arm).

I do think this is going to be a huge game for ND's season. A win there and I see a possible 10 win season. We lose and the negativity from last year will pick right back up. I'm not convinced Kirby Smart is very good, so we've got that going for us.

The 2016 4-8 ND team would've still been favored over that 2016 Georgia team on paper... at home, by over a TD.

 

[koonja]

Meh. I get that this is a discussion about WRs as an individual position group, but in this offense, I don't personally believe the passing production will come from a #2 and #3 wideout. ESB, Alize, and RBs that can catch out of the backfield, imo, are the ones who will dominate that passing production.

I see Finke as a strong situational player who has the ability to get behind most corners. I don't see him being ND's "it factor" on a weekly basis though. BTW, just my opinon, but this "walk on" flat out destroys our secondary in practice on a regular basis.

When it comes to who has a better WR crew, we're really having a cripple fight. Neither should instill faith in the group at this point - but I'd still take theirs for the aforementioned reasons. But you're right, how they're used and what they're asked to do will probably determine who's better this year.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The 2016 4-8 ND team would've still been favored over that 2016 Georgia team on paper... at home, by over a TD.

Here's hoping ND rolls out the 3-3-5 against this powerful passing attack in GA.

 

[Wild Bill]

They're 11-0 headed into Cali to play Stanford. A big goal line stand gives them the win and a 12-0 season. Wimbush isn't a Heisman contender but he is an adequate field general who gets bailed out by his QB coach, Tommy Rees, whenever he finds himself in a bind. Nyles Morgan steps up and plays out of his mind against MSU in a prime time game after the tragic loss of his fake g/f, and the performance inspires the defense to play lights out the rest of the season. We get into the playoffs where a 4 seed Alabama team back-doored their way into the game b/c of fluke losses by teams ranked higher. Beau Scarborough comes out looking like Chris Zorich in a cut off jersey and sets single game record for rushing yards as Alabama cruises to the title game. Wimbush instantly becomes a Heisman contender headed into 2018 but rumors swirl about an academic "incident".

 

[IrishLax]

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose every day.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has production similar to ESB - there's no advantage there for us). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

Star ratings would tell you that those Oregon teams that shredded everyone had no business even being on the field with the "loaded" USC teams they were beating by 5+ TDs. They'd also tell you Wisconsin's OL should've been mediocre-at-best when they were bowling over teams and that Michigan State would've had a terrible defense with all of their 2-star players.

Once you are actually in college and have film out there, star ratings become completely irrelevant. They only matter for projecting development of true and RS freshmen. Keith Marshall wasn't better than Todd Gurley just because Marshall was the higher rated RB in the class, and so on and so forth.

If you want to make the case that some of those unproven sophs could make a leap, then you should pick exactly who you think is going to be good and explain why they're going to be good. Hand waving at their recruiting ratings is dumb.

The strength of their team is a decent defense (34th and 36th in advanced stats last year) that returns everyone and should be a top 20 squad. But what if I told you that post-BVG last year's ND defense was actually stronger than Georgia's and that's the obvious "weakness" of this team? ND's defense returns 7 of 11 starters... only one person being replaced was a drafted player, and 3 out of the 4 "replacements" basically got starter level reps at the end of last year where the defense played at a high level.

 

[woolybug25]

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose every day.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has production similar to ESB - there's no advantage there for us). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

{/insert wrong gif}

We return 1,881 receiving yards from last year with our #1 and our #2 (Stepherson) both returning. UGA has 1,029 total receiving yards returning and that 5-star WR you spoke about absolutely did not have similar numbers to ESB. That is straight up garbage talk. He (Godwin) had 379 yards to EQ's 961 yards. How is that similar?

 

[irishfan]

Please remember Georgia finished the year ranked 59th by F/+ ... they were 68th by S&P+, with an offense that rated 93rd. That's right... 93rd out of 128 eligible FBS teams. Their OL rated 101st in the country.

The only way Georgia is scary is if Eason takes a huge step forward, which is possible. And if their re-tooled OL takes a huge step forward, which is also possible. If the 2016 Georgia shows up, we should be a minimum 10 point favorite... that team was considerably worse than Temple.

Chubb back at 100% wouldn't hurt either...

 

[koonja]

{/insert wrong gif}

We return 1,881 receiving yards from last year with our #1 and our #2 (Stepherson) both returning. UGA has 1,029 total receiving yards returning and that 5-star WR you spoke about absolutely did not have similar numbers to ESB. That is straight up garbage talk. He (Godwin) had 379 yards to EQ's 961 yards. How is that similar?

What's the career production look like? Godwin's is like 800 yards receiving. ESB's is right at 1,000? Big difference.

 

[IrishLax]

{/insert wrong gif}

We return 1,881 receiving yards from last year with our #1 and our #2 (Stepherson) both returning. UGA has 1,029 total receiving yards returning and that 5-star WR you spoke about absolutely did not have similar numbers to ESB. That is straight up garbage talk. He (Godwin) had 379 yards to EQ's 961 yards. How is that similar?

Not to mention -- <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No. 22 on our Preseason Top 25 - the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. <a href="https://t.co/JDbKJcDbLi">pic.twitter.com/JDbKJcDbLi</a></p>— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/893645497008877568">August 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Shows that EQ and Stepherson were both highly efficient WRs last year.

 

[IrishLax]

What's the career production look like? Godwin's is like 800 yards receiving. ESB's is right at 1,000? Big difference.

Yes, it's 25% more production.

 

[woolybug25]

What's the career production look like? Godwin's is like 800 yards receiving. ESB's is right at 1,000? Big difference.

Also wrong. 969 to Godwin's 776. But that is also moving the goal posts from my point. That they are not returning studs or production from last year. We are.

 

[NDohio]

They're 11-0 headed into Cali to play Stanford. A big goal line stand gives them the win and a 12-0 season. Wimbush isn't a Heisman contender but he is an adequate field general who gets bailed out by his QB coach, Tommy Rees, whenever he finds himself in a bind. Nyles Morgan steps up and plays out of his mind against MSU in a prime time game after the tragic loss of his fake g/f, and the performance inspires the defense to play lights out the rest of the season. We get into the playoffs where a 4 seed Alabama team back-doored their way into the game b/c of fluke losses by teams ranked higher. Beau Scarborough comes out looking like Chris Zorich in a cut off jersey and sets single game record for rushing yards as Alabama cruises to the title game. Wimbush instantly becomes a Heisman contender headed into 2018 but rumors swirl about an academic "incident".

And Notre Dame wins in a forfeit after Beau is disqualified because of the "Zeke Elloitt" rule outlawing crop top jerseys...

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose every day.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has production similar to ESB - there's no advantage there for us). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

Wooly already pointed out the disparity between the #1s on both teams but to add to that, we have to find 3 suitable receivers from these rankings:

.8709 (fr)
.8706 (fr) - people are very high on Young already

.9464 . (soph)
.9258 . (soph)
.8615 . (soph) - Stepherson
NR - Finke

.9685 (jr) - Alize' (who people are saying will be flexed out a good amount)
.9287 (jr) - ESB
.9177 (jr)
.8997 (jr)

.8187 grad transfer
.8928 grad transfer

 

[Irish Insanity]

No - the only thing I pull out of my ass is your nose every day.

We have ESB. Then our 2nd best WR is arguably a walk on in Finke.

Then we have Claypool who can't catch and is still learning the position.
Boykin who is slow and also has the drops.
Stepherson who simply doesn't care.
Canteen who wasn't even on a team last year.
McKinley who had a broke leg last year and we've heard nothing about in fall camp.

Meanwhile, to go along with a 5-star TE (higher rated than Alize), they have WRs on their roster with the following ratings. I think they'll figure out a way to find a #2 from this list:

.93 (soph)
.93 (soph)
.90 (soph)
.90 (soph)

.99 (Jr)
.90 (jr)
.88 (jr)

.90 (sr)
.88 (sr)

Point is - neither team has a proven WR tandum (their 5-star WR has production similar to ESB - there's no advantage there for us). They simply have more talent there to work with, though, so I'll take their WRs.

Wait, so you'd rather have their 1 year shity experience QB over our 2 year ride the bench dude. But you'd rather have their 'insert star' no experience WRs over ours with experience.

 

[fitz_bu47]

I'm with Lax, and some others. Don't really consider it a bold prediction, the Irish beat Georgia by 10+.

I really believe this is a double digit win team, the offensive fire power and switch to Long, combined w/ Elko and his changes has me very pumped for the season to start.

My truly bold prediction is the other team I care about, the Kansas Jayhawks win at least 4 games (hopefully 6, bowl game would be huge!) and have a consensus all american in Dorance Armstrong!

 

[koonja]

Wait, so you'd rather have their 1 year shity experience QB over our 2 year ride the bench dude. But you'd rather have their 'insert star' no experience WRs over ours with experience.

Their star WR has experience. And take away the Syracuse game of ESB, and they virtually have the same career production.

God bless you guys for having so much faith in ND WRs. I hope you're right.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Their star WR has experience. And take away the Syracuse game of ESB, and they virtually have the same career production.

God bless you guys for having so much faith in ND WRs. I hope you're right.

Correct. But you're ignoring every WR outside of those 2. And it's not about having faith in our WRs as much as it's having faith our WRs are better than Georgia's.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Their star WR has experience. And take away the Syracuse game of ESB, and they virtually have the same career production.

God bless you guys for having so much faith in ND WRs. I hope you're right.

Bless your heart Koon, you have so much faith in the Georgia WRs. We all hope you are wrong.