2016 Presidential Horse Race

[connor_in]

Uh Bogs my man, when quoting my post this morning you did see that I specifically bolded this...

The Republicans' biggest problem, IMO, has been the discrepancy between how they've campaigned and how they've governed

...and actually this is true for the Ds as well.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Actually I believe the Democrats may come out of this ahead. Donna Brazile, Nancy Pelosi, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz will be gone. As will the Clintons. That alone is worth it.

As far as the Republicans - I believe they will collapse under their own weight. Remember, they didn't win this election. Trump did. And he won it with Obama voters and traditional Democrats.

The fissures in the Republican Party will grow. Donald Trump is a conservatives nightmare. How long will it be before major elements begin an impeachment movement to remove Donald, and install Mike Pence. Remember, Donald goes on trial next week.

And how many of the people who wanted Hillary crucified are going to accept Donald, Bill, and Hillary becoming besties again?

Thinking that 2008 led to a great shift toward Democratic policies is false. Early Obama was all about doing anything to keep the economy from collapsing. And of course it really started to look a lot different than Bush, because Bush policies contributed so strongly to the near collapse; record deficit spending, wars, tax breaks, abdication of government controls, etc.

Of course the interesting part is as the economy started to recover, and Obama experience a lack of any kind of partnership on the part of Republicans, he decided to do things his own way, and totally abandoned and effort toward bipartisan cooperation. This in my opinion is one of the single most important reasons Hillary lost. And the Republicans are now poised to do the exact same thing.

This seeming concentration of Republican power hasn't been seen since 1928. But remember, because of gerrymandering, and the Electoral College it was done without the support of a majority of Americans. And those Americans that put Trump over the top, voted for Obama before. Think they are going to give Republicans much time to fill their campaign promises? Can the Republicans fill those promises? Or is the American public going to realize that the real problem is the House of Representatives, which has what, a nineteen percent approval rating at best?

I really hope this country opens things up to more than two parties. Maybe the Republicans will do that among themselves, because even Donald Trump said this is the last chance to put together his coalition. Even demographics are working against the traditional parties.

Like my grandpa said, "Do you really want to hire the alligator to drain the swamp?"

And, that the problem with alligators is that they have very short arms, so the reach of their teeth is greater than that of their arms.

Trump won the White House. Trump didn't win the House, Senate, and Governor seats nationwide. That was the point.

 

[NDgradstudent]

The rule for all of these "bullying" cases should be provide pictures or it did not happen. The presumption should be that these are fraudulent, given the well-known hate-crime hoaxes committed by liberals recently.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Neither free trade nor globalization have come at the expense of "working class Americans" if you know enough to look beyond the first-order effects of outsourcing, which, granted, working class Americans don't. If implemented, Trump's protectionist trade policies will have absolutely disastrous effects on they people they're supposed to help. This will come at dire political cost to the GOP.

*Note I said globalization, not globalism. There's a difference that I'm too tired to argue right now.

This is what
I've been saying
Trump ran on a platform
Of complete economic self destruction

Want to form a globalist anti populist pro immigration pro trade party? I'm ready to cut ties with the Bernie bros, but can't do it without at least some of the Ryan republicans.

I actually kind of think this would have happened if it weren't for wedge issues.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I think there's an aspect of the entire 2016 election that's been under-reported. Trump winning was a huge surprise and gets a ton of time and attention, as expected. But I think this election was a defeat for the entire Democratic party.

Republicans took the White House, held the House, held on to the Senate, and the country now has 33 Republican governors. If Trump beat Hillary but Dems took the House and Senate, you could solely blame Hillary. That's not the case.

2008 brought a huge shift to Democratic policies, and now 8 years later the pendulum swung heavily in the other direction.

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

 

[yankeehater]

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

How do we even know that? There are still millions not counted in CA including 400k in my county alone. My brother just checked and according to state records his ballot has yet to be counted in Colorado. We have already enacted new laws in Cali with this many ballots outstanding. I really don't understand the process now.


Secretary of State Alex Padilla reported on Friday afternoon that some 2.4 million votes remain uncounted from the statewide primary.

 

[NDgradstudent]

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

Popular vote winners have not become President four times previously (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016). Obviously this is made possible by our system, which places an emphasis upon states. Maybe now the Democrats will visit some of these states (PA, MI, WI) more during elections?

As for the House, any plurality electoral system with districts is going to have a discrepancy between share of the vote and share of the seats. Democrats mostly choose to live to highly dense areas. This is why there are 19 Democratic House seats at D+30 or higher, but only 3 GOP seats at R+30 or higher. Democrats have more ultra-safe seats where the GOP may not even field a candidate, but there is not a big difference in practice between a seat that is D+40 and one that is R+15; they are in practice both 'safe' for the different parties.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Popular vote winners have not become President four times previously (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016). Obviously this is made possible by our system, which places an emphasis upon states. Maybe now the Democrats will visit some of these states (PA, MI, WI) more during elections?

As for the House, any plurality electoral system with districts is going to have a discrepancy between share of the vote and share of the seats. Democrats mostly choose to live to highly dense areas. This is why there are 19 Democratic House seats at D+30 or higher, but only 3 GOP seats at R+30 or higher. Democrats have more ultra-safe seats where the GOP may not even field a candidate, but there is not a big difference in practice between a seat that is D+40 and one that is R+15; they are in practice both 'safe' for the different parties.

Wisconsin needed a little more TLC I agree but HRC hit PA and MI pretty hard.

Just tough to compete with a guy who makes promises he can't keep.

Otherwise, I agree with you.

 

[kmoose]

Just tough to compete with a guy who makes promises he can't keep.

No. It's tough to compete when you are someone who everyone knows makes promises you will only keep if the recipient can afford to make a sizeable donation to the family "charitable" foundation, or if the recipient can afford to pay a family member a very sizeable speaking fee.

 

[calvegas04]

Just tough to compete with a guy who makes promises he can't keep.

Like everyone that has run for president?

 

[Irish YJ]

TBF Trump isn't a repudiation of anything. He's a complete rorschach who will agree with whoever he happens to have talked to most recently. That's why he came away from his meeting with Obama talking about keeping parts of the ACA in place.

Everyone heard what they wanted to hear from Trump and no more. To the KKK, he was a white nationalist. To rust belt voters, he was a Builder who would revitalize the economy. To the GOP establishment, he was a champion of small government. To isolationists, he would get us out of wars. To neocons, he would win them.

Trump promised everyone everything over the past year. He doesn't stand for anything but Donald J. Trump, Inc.


tl;dr: the GOP establishment only came home because they believed they could shape Trump. The rust belt turned out for Trump because they believed the GOP couldn't. We're in for the mother of all proxy battles, because Trump has no clue who he is as a politician.

So how about HRC promising everything to the common man, but really being in the pocket of big business? What you just did is describe just about every politician. Actually, I'm not sure anyone knows what Trump will do.

The fact of the matter is the government actually does some things better than private industry.

Examples? All I've seen is inefficient performance from the government regardless of party. The government sure does spend money well.

So what would you hire the government to do if all things were equal. So you would invest your money with the government instead of a top 10 financial institution??

Like my grandpa said, "Do you really want to hire the alligator to drain the swamp?"

And, that the problem with alligators is that they have very short arms, so the reach of their teeth is greater than that of their arms.

Your choices are limited in the Swamp.... Who do you pick. The gator? The snake? Sometimes the only effective choice is the biggest, most dangerous option. We've already tried the snake. The swamp just got bigger...

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

So how about we let those whacky wonderful Cali folks go ahead and Calexit.... Then you would never have to worry about the above again. Actually, just let the <3rd of the state geographically go, Or let what is less than 20% of the geographical state of NY go... Let's face it, there are a few dense urban areas that totally alter the look of the nation, and the states which they occupy.

 

[connor_in]

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

This is BS and you know it. The electoral college is not new and wasn't just sprung on us November 1st. Appeal to voters in more states and get more electoral votes instead of winning Philadelphia and LA 98-2. Bill Clinton didn't win a majority of the votes but won the electoral count, Obama did win the majority and the electoral count, Gore won a majority and lost the electoral just in 2000...it even came up during this campaign so everyone knows it is quite possibility. If she would have visited WI maybe that does it...if she flips OH or FL...

If you don't want the electoral college then get them to change the set up before the election. However, if you think asking people to show ID to vote mutes certain people's voices but allowing metropolis areas to decide all for the rest of the country doesn't, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[NorthDakota]

In 2012, the Dems got more House votes than the republicans.

In 2012, Republicans won 52% of the votes for the house but won 57% of the races.

In 2016, the Dems got 200,000 more presidential votes than the republicans. They lost the presidency.

The story of this election is how the current allocation of voting power screws the Dems. I think a dem candidate is running at like a 3% handicap at this point. The republicans can more or less ignore urban populations because they're so concentrated that their voting power is diluted.

The urban cities shouldn't run America. Not in the mood to turn my part of America into a District in The Hunger Games. Quit your bitching. Maybe if all the hippie liberals didn't concentrate their population into the echo chamber concrete jungles, they'd, you know...win more seats.

 

[IrishinSyria]

This is BS and you know it. The electoral college is not new and wasn't just sprung on us November 1st. Appeal to voters in more states and get more electoral votes instead of winning Philadelphia and LA 98-2. Bill Clinton didn't win a majority of the votes but won the electoral count, Obama did win the majority and the electoral count, Gore won a majority and lost the electoral just in 2000...it even came up during this campaign so everyone knows it is quite possibility. If she would have visited WI maybe that does it...if she flips OH or FL...

If you don't want the electoral college then get them to change the set up before the election. However, if you think asking people to show ID to vote mutes certain people's voices but allowing metropolis areas to decide all for the rest of the country doesn't, then I don't know what to tell you.

In retrospect the language I used was too strong and suggested sour grapes when all I was trying to do was make an observation of fact:

Given the system we have and the geographical distribution of people we have, democrats are at a disadvantage.

I would put it like this: without knowing anything else, I would set the spread of a generic Democrat vs. a generic Republican at +2.5% for the Republican. Dems need a field goal to cover, and covering=winning the electoral college.

This only is an issue in really close elections, which is why it's only come up a few times.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Donald Trump will never “drain the swamp”: He’s already staffing his transition team with GOP insiders, Wall Street lobbyists - Salon.com

 

[CrownRoyal]

Totally delusional comments. Just state anything, whether its true or not, That has been the game plan.

The failure of that group who thought it was in the bag, who assumed the regular citizen wasn't listening, are now stunned.

This bunch that are in the WH, Senate, Congress and Clintons will go down in history as the most divisive group ever.

I have one question to those who think that Conservatives are out of touch, Why have the huge murder problems in cities such as Chicago, not been addressed in the media?

Anybody?

 

[IrishinSyria]

Totally delusional comments. Just state anything, whether its true or not, That has been the game plan.

The failure of that group who thought it was in the bag, who assumed the regular citizen wasn't listening, are now stunned.

This bunch that are in the WH, Senate, Congress and Clintons will go down in history as the most divisive group ever.

I have one question to those who think that Conservatives are out of touch, Why have the huge murder problems in cities such as Chicago, not been addressed in the media?

Anybody?

How does one respond to this?

Is Chicago’s ghastly murder rate the result of its 1990s anti-gang policies?

Chicago's 500 homicides: How we got here - CNN.com

Examining The Reasons For Chicago's Violence : NPR

Chicago Police Partner with Federal Officials to Crack Down on Gun Violence | NBC Chicago

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/04/us/chicago-shootings.html?_r=0

Inside Chicago's Endless Cycle of Gun Violence - Rolling Stone

Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release | FiveThirtyEight

all from the first page of google

 

[IrishinSyria]

Anyone want to bet on whether or not Trump follows through on his promise to lock Clinton up?

 

[Bogtrotter07]

The yada yada continues!
Stop reading into things that just are not there.
The People are not as stupid as the Liberals believe.
You can push and push, then the People push back, end of story!

How conciliatory you are!

Reading past the grammatical errors, and the ominous tone, I have a question. This the kind of pushing you taking about, Vern?



This was taken at the Jacksonville rally just hours before the election.

So the Trump campaign obviously didn't repudiate the alt-right movement, or the blatant racists among their midst.

Now you talk about the people speaking, or pushing back or something. This election was a clear example of masterful manipulation of several disparate groups, which together don't make up a majority. In fact the majority of the electorate voted for Hillary, many stayed at home that may have supported a more rational progressive candidate, and as Donald himself said, "This may be our one and only chance." He was speaking of the broadly changing demographics, that wouldn't favor the message he was able to send.

So I am interested, do you feel pushed? Taken advantage of and abused?

Are you one of those screaming, "Lock her up," or "CNN Sucks," at a fevered pitch? If that is you, I would like to maintain contact, and get your thoughts and feelings about giving Hillary a total pass the second the election is over. That piss you off, Vern?

Every time, Donald Trump, the candidate that is actually the dictionary definition of establishment, (look it up, his picture is right there next to establishment poster boy,) when he nominates big business establishment leaders, or Republican hierarchical, formerly obstructionists as candidates for all his cabinet positions, you going to get pissed?

And when he drops your taxes by $15, but all his buddies by $15 million, and the country starts to flounder under the oppressive weight of a 30 trillion dollar debt, you going to get madder?

I can't wait to continue more than a mono-syllabic conversation with all my friends that supported Donald Trump. This should be good.

 

[CrownRoyal]

Those are all small trinkets of coverage, I can goggle and post many articles about anything.

You posting as you did is dishonest.

There has not been a major report from the Democratic WH or media as if it was important.

 

[johnnycando]

How conciliatory you are!

Reading past the grammatical errors, and the ominous tone, I have a question. This the kind of pushing you taking about, Vern?



This was taken at the Jacksonville rally just hours before the election.

So the Trump campaign obviously didn't repudiate the alt-right movement, or the blatant racists among their midst.

Now you talk about the people speaking, or pushing back or something. This election was a clear example of masterful manipulation of several disparate groups, which together don't make up a majority. In fact the majority of the electorate voted for Hillary, many stayed at home that may have supported a more rational progressive candidate, and as Donald himself said, "This may be our one and only chance." He was speaking of the broadly changing demographics, that wouldn't favor the message he was able to send.

So I am interested, do you feel pushed? Taken advantage of and abused?

Are you one of those screaming, "Lock her up," or "CNN Sucks," at a fevered pitch? If that is you, I would like to maintain contact, and get your thoughts and feelings about giving Hillary a total pass the second the election is over. That piss you off, Vern?

Every time, Donald Trump, the candidate that is actually the dictionary definition of establishment, (look it up, his picture is right there next to establishment poster boy,) when he nominates big business establishment leaders, or Republican hierarchical, formerly obstructionists as candidates for all his cabinet positions, you going to get pissed?

And when he drops your taxes by $15, but all his buddies by $15 million, and the country starts to flounder under the oppressive weight of a 30 trillion dollar debt, you going to get madder?

I can't wait to continue more than a mono-syllabic conversation with all my friends that supported Donald Trump. This should be good.

Pace yourself.

8 years worth of repeating yourself bud.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Those are all small trinkets of coverage, I can goggle and post many articles about anything.

You posting as you did is dishonest.

There has not been a major report from the Democratic WH or media as if it was important.

Obama on Gun Violence: 'It Happens on the Streets of Chicago Every Day' | NBC Chicago

Here's Obama talking about violence in Chicago and measures he intends to push.

I don't know what to tell you. I just linked to a series of recent in-depth articles exploring the problem of violence in Chicago from a variety of "liberal" sources like NPR, NYtimes, and CNN. The President has spoken about the issue multiple times. You might disagree with the conclusions or solutions proposed, but to claim that it's been ignored by the media is just beyond disingenuous. TBH, it reveals more about the sources you get your information from than anything else.

My experience living in the south side of Chicago is that, if anything, the narrative is overplayed. Like don't get me wrong, gun violence and gangs are a huge problem in the city. But it is not hell. It's far safer than it was in the early 90s. Much of the violence is self contained (i.e. the vast majority of people being shot are gang members). Obviously, more needs to be done. But I'm telling you from first hand experience that the narrative of Chicago- even the South and the West side- as some sort of urban deathtrap is simply false.

 

[calvegas04]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1d9lm-T87AQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[NorthDakota]

How conciliatory you are!

Reading past the grammatical errors, and the ominous tone, I have a question. This the kind of pushing you taking about, Vern?



This was taken at the Jacksonville rally just hours before the election.

So the Trump campaign obviously didn't repudiate the alt-right movement, or the blatant racists among their midst.

You find the flag racist. Many others don't.

 

[CrownRoyal]

The interesting thing is, Trump would not be my choice, that's how it was set up. Blame those who allowed this to happen.

So you want to play the game of posting what's considered bad! Really, we could do that all day.

I have seen you spew more hateful rhetoric to other posters about their opinions then anyone else. So spare me your snide comments and nonsense.

You lost, Did I riot or my family when Obama won 2X, did I beat people up, NO

Get on with your life, in 4 years there will be another election, and maybe it will go your way.

To continue to demean people who vote for what they are want, does not make them racist or bigoted because you say so.

 

[CrownRoyal]

Again, my point was that it is not covered like it should be. We rather put on how disappointed Hollywood is or some group that says stupid stuff so they can be linked to Trump!

The continuous attack on those of us who voted for the party that won the WH is beyond pale. Spend more time on the bigger issues. 2 years now its been a constant attack not about policy, but lies and made up stories from both candidates and a President that does not address the every citizens problems.

I am a conservative, trust me, I did not like my choice. I cannot stand the Party leaders. This is the worst by far in my 60 years.

 

[CrownRoyal]

Interesting, I thought he was referring to the "Make America Great Again" Signs!

 

[IrishLax]

Donald Trump will never “drain the swamp”: He’s already staffing his transition team with GOP insiders, Wall Street lobbyists - Salon.com

So what? Having some experienced people who know the system is no proof of what he will or won't do. The entire premise and subsequent conclusion of the article is obvious bullshit. Insane amount of straw grasping right now... it's
embarrassing.

 

[IrishinSyria]

So what? Having some experienced people who know the system is no proof of what he will or won't do. The entire premise and subsequent conclusion of the article is obvious bullshit. Insane amount of straw grasping right now... it's
embarrassing.

I agree. I didn't promise to drain the swamp. *shrug* I also think it's a good thing he won't prosecute Clinton. That's why I would never have made that promise if I were running for president.

On a side note, this has to be one of my favorite quotes of all time:

Call to &apos;lock her up&apos; puts Trump in a bind over his threat to prosecute Hillary Clinton - LA Times

The answer, of course, rests with Trump. The president-elect may have signaled his intentions to forgo an investigation when he told supporters Wednesday morning during his victory address that the country owed Clinton “a major debt of gratitude for her service."

That doesn’t sound like what you would say when you are about to seek a special prosecutor, according to legal experts and political consultants. Trump is surely cognizant, they said, of the immense political and legal hurdles of forging ahead.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published online Friday, Trump suggested he had higher priorities. “It’s not something I’ve given a lot of thought, because I want to solve healthcare, jobs, border control, tax reform,” he said.

I love that they had to turn to legal experts and political consultants for that cutting edge analysis.

 

[gkIrish]

Still not getting it....


Clinton blames FBI's Comey for her defeat in call with donors