2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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NorthDakota

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to the older members, has there ever been this visceral of a reaction to the election like this
and to everyone could trump be the first president to walk into the door unpopular?

I've been wondering the same thing. I remember GWB being elected...but I was 8, so it doesn't count really. I remember Bush beating Kerry, reasonably well I think. I think I'd remember if shit was happening. I DEFINITELY remember Obama being elected. It was a dark day. Romney losing was disappointing, but I was a Junior in college...and I was not offered any counseling.
 

Bluto

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to the older members, has there ever been this visceral of a reaction to the election like this
and to everyone could trump be the first president to walk into the door unpopular?

Lincoln and Kennedy were assasinated....
 

NorthDakota

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Lincoln and Kennedy were assasinated....

Lincoln was assassinated by a foreign(in the eyes of the assassin) national. Though Lincoln's election did lead to a legitimate secession...your point stands though.
 

IrishLax

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<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GLG9g7BcjKs?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Truest shit ever. Think someone referred to this earlier in the thread.
 

phgreek

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update on Grubhub CEO's email blow-back..


Dropped 5% in share price, and now carries a 1 star rating in the apple store.

Will probably turn around...but totally unnecessary risk to investors and employees...will never invest a penny in them with that kind of stupidity at the helm.
 

phgreek

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<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GLG9g7BcjKs?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Truest shit ever. Think someone referred to this earlier in the thread.

Amen...I may never agree politically with that guy, but I'm on his side.
 

ulukinatme

Carr for QB 2026!
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I wondered how legitimate all these "attacks" on Facebook were that people were claiming. None of them had more proof or corroboration other than "I'm saying it on Facebook, so it must be true." I'm sure there are things happening out there, but it's not changing anyone. If people were assholes before the election, they're still assholes after, they just have a clever excuse.

That said, it's ridiculous to see the people that are getting assaulted for supporting Trump. You're not seeing Trump supporters attacking Hillary's side...there are a few instances of a single person throwing punches toward a disruptive protester at rallies, but nothing like we've seen from these anti-Trump mobs. Throngs of people, in multiple instances over the last year, are attacking Trump supporters and destroying their property...crazy.
 
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ulukinatme

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<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GLG9g7BcjKs?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Truest shit ever. Think someone referred to this earlier in the thread.

Saw it earlier tonight. He's a bit loud and energized, but he's spot on.
 

NorthDakota

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<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GLG9g7BcjKs?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Truest shit ever. Think someone referred to this earlier in the thread.

Raises some good points...all his criticism of the left, to me, is nearly 100% why The Don won this election. You try to embarrass and shame people who don't need to be shamed, and this is what you get. Congrats you dumb fucks. I love that the assholes on the coast are crying. They deserve it.
 

phgreek

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wizards8507

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I have no illusions about Trump himself. I'm talking about what the Rust Belt voters were voting against. And they were very much repudiating Ryan's economics.
Ryan's economics haven't been tried in decades. The GOP has been an opposition party for eight years and GWB was hardly a fiscal conservative. How can Rust Belt voters repudiate policies to which they've never been subject?
 
C

Cackalacky

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Are they really this tone deaf? Surely not.
According to Politico and Business Insider, Navin Nayak, head of the Clinton campaign’s opinion research division, sent an email to staffers outlining “early signals” as to why Clinton lost.

“We believe that we lost this election in the last week,” Nayak’s email, published by Politico, said. “Comey’s letter in the last 11 days of the election both helped depress our turnout and also drove away some of our critical support among
college-educated white voters—particularly in the suburbs. We also think Comey’s 2nd letter, which was intended to absolve Sec. Clinton, actually helped to bolster Trump’s turnout.”
 
C

Cackalacky

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Ryan's economics haven't been tried in decades. The GOP has been an opposition party for eight years and GWB was hardly a fiscal conservative. How can Rust Belt voters repudiate policies to which they've never been subject?

I'd be interested in you expounding upon this because from my recollection of Reagan and GWB economic policy was rebranded trickle down that included attempts at privatizing SS, fostering Wall Street policies that are boon for the elite and shit for everyone else, massive tax cuts that put us into large deficits all the while massively increasing spending. The whole time the political and insider narrative has been that Democrats are the ones that spend too much and have terrible economic policies. What would separate Paul from this mantra? Idon't see it. When were Ryan's policies last tried and worked?
 
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wizards8507

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I'd be interested in you expounding upon this because from my recollection of Reagan and GWB economic policy was rebranded trickle down that included attempts at privatizing SS, fostering Wall Street policies that are boon for the elite and shit for everyone else, massive tax cuts that put us into large deficits all the while massively increasing spending. The whole time the political and insider narrative has been that Democrats are the ones that spend too much and have terrible economic policies. What would separate Paul from this mantra? Idon't see it. When were Ryan's policies last tried and worked?
The Republicans' biggest problem, IMO, has been the discrepancy between how they've campaigned and how they've governed. As you rightly point out, they've been massively increasing spending while campaigning on promises of fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget. In this regard, they lose any credibility when they complain about the Democrats doing the same. I think it's too early to know for sure which side of this Paul Ryan will fall on, but he's at least saying the right things.

FWIW, the current social security privatization plan would be a benefit to everyone. The Democrats like to say that the Republicans want to "gamble your retirement on Wall Street," and the Republicans need to do a better job advertising that their plan is optional. Nobody has to put any money in Wall Street if they don't want to, but the option to do so will be a major boon to younger workers.

Side note, supply-side economics was never actually branded "trickle-down." That has always been a pejorative from the populists.
 

connor_in

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The Republicans' biggest problem, IMO, has been the discrepancy between how they've campaigned and how they've governed. As you rightly point out, they've been massively increasing spending while campaigning on promises of fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget. In this regard, they lose any credibility when they complain about the Democrats doing the same. I think it's too early to know for sure which side of this Paul Ryan will fall on, but he's at least saying the right things.

FWIW, the current social security privatization plan would be a benefit to everyone. The Democrats like to say that the Republicans want to "gamble your retirement on Wall Street," and the Republicans need to do a better job advertising that their plan is optional. Nobody has to put any money in Wall Street if they don't want to, but the option to do so will be a major boon to younger workers.

Side note, supply-side economics was never actually branded "trickle-down." That has always been a pejorative from the populists.

This...in spades
 
B

Bogtrotter07

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Bolded is why a lot of people went Trump.
The liberal mindset of you're too stupid to know what's good for you only we do.

The same mindset that allows people to attack a business owner over their personal beliefs, but when someone who's part of their belief structure posts that men will have to pay a 7% tax for the crime of being born with a different chromosone that's ok.

Rage Against the Machine once said "Fuck you I won't do what you tell me" the machine has now become ultra liberalism.

Just so you understand. I admit I am stupid. Just not that same kind of stupid. And I am sorry if I offend you with anything in my original and this statement.

I am stupid because I thought more people would see the Trump con for what it was.

People want their 80's and 90's jobs back - [in the those years I made more money than I deserved for some very specific technical skills (no not felatio or cunnilingus!) And add in some mediocre management skills and voila! Six figures before I completed my bachelors degree. (I had my mother-humper degree from our Uncle, before I got serious about four years back-to-back at a university of my choice.)] but they are gone forever, gone to obsolete business practices, not to another country, where they can be retrieved.

But most importantly, that fine paying career I had is gone. As is about a million and a half related jobs that the computer industry bled off between Y2K and eighteen months after 911, the height Gates Zero support initiative. But folks, those jobs aren't coming back. Technology has obsoleted them. The don't even do most of the things I got paid to be good at, anymore!

And the same is true of almost all of the rustbelt manufacturing jobs. They really didn't move to Mexico or China. (Talking China in one of these conversations makes me feel dirty, because it is so fraudulent. NAFTA if anything slowed Chinese job growth.) If you really want to look at the truth, base upon facts, rustbelt jobs were lost predominantly to automation, not export. Remember the days everyone bitched about US car manufacturers producing inferior products?

We were all accountable, because machines could do some of the jobs better, faster, and with more precision that humans could. Did we recognize this and retrain displaced workers? Hell no! So, who dropped the workers on their asses with no retraining or relocation? Free trade advocates that preached it was a sin to waste money on such frivolity, when the market would take care of such issues.

Yet in this election, the same progressive (labeled liberal) forces that fought through the Reagan, first Bush, Clinton, and W Bush years, have been demonized as the ones responsible for this. Democrats, Obama's, Clinton's, a bunch of down ballot candidates, a hundred million plus voters, and yes your humbled Bogs, all have shown stupidity at not realizing the mechanism of this con, and its power before the election.

Unfortunately, the country will some day in the not to distant future.

Another part of the con is painting the Clinton's, one or all as liberal. Oh my God, Myrtle! Bill Clinton was the best Republican President since Dwight David Eisenhower! The Democratic Party so sold out with Hillary! She moved the Democrats so right that there was hardly a difference with any of the Republican candidates except Trump!

When the party sold Bernie out for Clinton, the one thing that was absolutely necessary (in hindsight) for a victory was gone for the Democrats : Change. With Bernie, the Democrats could 'out-change' any Republican. And the Democrats gave up the high ground!

PS. I don't get the paragraph I highlighted with color.

And fun fact : The last time (and only time) the US elected a Republican President to a sitting Republican House and Senate was - - - 1928. And, at that time Congress was highly protectionist, and the President, not. This time that single dynamic is reversed.
 

johnnycando

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Just so you understand. I admit I am stupid. Just not that same kind of stupid. And I am sorry if I offend you with anything in my original and this statement.

I am stupid because I thought more people would see the Trump con for what it was.

People want their 80's and 90's jobs back - [in the those years I made more money than I deserved for some very specific technical skills (no not felatio or cunnilingus!) And add in some mediocre management skills and voila! Six figures before I completed my bachelors degree. (I had my mother-humper degree from our Uncle, before I got serious about four years back-to-back at a university of my choice.)] but they are gone forever, gone to obsolete business practices, not to another country, where they can be retrieved.

But most importantly, that fine paying career I had is gone. As is about a million and a half related jobs that the computer industry bled off between Y2K and eighteen months after 911, the height Gates Zero support initiative. But folks, those jobs aren't coming back. Technology has obsoleted them. The don't even do most of the things I got paid to be good at, anymore!

And the same is true of almost all of the rustbelt manufacturing jobs. They really didn't move to Mexico or China. (Talking China in one of these conversations makes me feel dirty, because it is so fraudulent. NAFTA if anything slowed Chinese job growth.) If you really want to look at the truth, base upon facts, rustbelt jobs were lost predominantly to automation, not export. Remember the days everyone bitched about US car manufacturers producing inferior products?

We were all accountable, because machines could do some of the jobs better, faster, and with more precision that humans could. Did we recognize this and retrain displaced workers? Hell no! So, who dropped the workers on their asses with no retraining or relocation? Free trade advocates that preached it was a sin to waste money on such frivolity, when the market would take care of such issues.

Yet in this election, the same progressive (labeled liberal) forces that fought through the Reagan, first Bush, Clinton, and W Bush years, have been demonized as the ones responsible for this. Democrats, Obama's, Clinton's, a bunch of down ballot candidates, a hundred million plus voters, and yes your humbled Bogs, all have shown stupidity at not realizing the mechanism of this con, and its power before the election.

Unfortunately, the country will some day in the not to distant future.

Another part of the con is painting the Clinton's, one or all as liberal. Oh my God, Myrtle! Bill Clinton was the best Republican President since Dwight David Eisenhower! The Democratic Party so sold out with Hillary! She moved the Democrats so right that there was hardly a difference with any of the Republican candidates except Trump!

When the party sold Bernie out for Clinton, the one thing that was absolutely necessary (in hindsight) for a victory was gone for the Democrats : Change. With Bernie, the Democrats could 'out-change' any Republican. And the Democrats gave up the high ground!

PS. I don't get the paragraph I highlighted with color.

And fun fact : The last time (and only time) the US elected a Republican President to a sitting Republican House and Senate was - - - 1928. And, at that time Congress was highly protectionist, and the President, not. This time that single dynamic is reversed.


Congrats.

participation_custom-bbe092ece7e478e97403f5ba8db69a1daedc3cc5-s6-c30.jpg


Your Commander in Chief, smoked his competitor.
 

johnnycando

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TBF Trump isn't a repudiation of anything. He's a complete rorschach who will agree with whoever he happens to have talked to most recently. That's why he came away from his meeting with Obama talking about keeping parts of the ACA in place.

Everyone heard what they wanted to hear from Trump and no more. To the KKK, he was a white nationalist. To rust belt voters, he was a Builder who would revitalize the economy. To the GOP establishment, he was a champion of small government. To isolationists, he would get us out of wars. To neocons, he would win them.

Trump promised everyone everything over the past year. He doesn't stand for anything but Donald J. Trump, Inc.


tl;dr: the GOP establishment only came home because they believed they could shape Trump. The rust belt turned out for Trump because they believed the GOP couldn't. We're in for the mother of all proxy battles, because Trump has no clue who he is as a politician.



Congrats.

participation_custom-bbe092ece7e478e97403f5ba8db69a1daedc3cc5-s6-c30.jpg
 

Polish Leppy 22

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I think there's an aspect of the entire 2016 election that's been under-reported. Trump winning was a huge surprise and gets a ton of time and attention, as expected. But I think this election was a defeat for the entire Democratic party.

Republicans took the White House, held the House, held on to the Senate, and the country now has 33 Republican governors. If Trump beat Hillary but Dems took the House and Senate, you could solely blame Hillary. That's not the case.

2008 brought a huge shift to Democratic policies, and now 8 years later the pendulum swung heavily in the other direction.
 

johnnycando

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I think there's an aspect of the entire 2016 election that's been under-reported. Trump winning was a huge surprise and gets a ton of time and attention, as expected. But I think this election was a defeat for the entire Democratic party.

Republicans took the White House, held the House, held on to the Senate, and the country now has 33 Republican governors. If Trump beat Hillary but Dems took the House and Senate, you could solely blame Hillary. That's not the case.

2008 brought a huge shift to Democratic policies, and now 8 years later the pendulum swung heavily in the other direction.

Thank God! Amen.
 
B

Bogtrotter07

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I'd be interested in you expounding upon this because from my recollection of Reagan and GWB economic policy was rebranded trickle down that included attempts at privatizing SS, fostering Wall Street policies that are boon for the elite and shit for everyone else, massive tax cuts that put us into large deficits all the while massively increasing spending. The whole time the political and insider narrative has been that Democrats are the ones that spend too much and have terrible economic policies. What would separate Paul from this mantra? Idon't see it. When were Ryan's policies last tried and worked?

The Republicans' biggest problem, IMO, has been the discrepancy between how they've campaigned and how they've governed. As you rightly point out, they've been massively increasing spending while campaigning on promises of fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget. In this regard, they lose any credibility when they complain about the Democrats doing the same. I think it's too early to know for sure which side of this Paul Ryan will fall on, but he's at least saying the right things.

FWIW, the current social security privatization plan would be a benefit to everyone. The Democrats like to say that the Republicans want to "gamble your retirement on Wall Street," and the Republicans need to do a better job advertising that their plan is optional. Nobody has to put any money in Wall Street if they don't want to, but the option to do so will be a major boon to younger workers.

Side note, supply-side economics was never actually branded "trickle-down." That has always been a pejorative from the populists.

This...in spades

Look. I have brought this up before. My dad used to say that politics was like a magic show. The magician gets you to focus on one hand while the other does all the work.

Trickle down, once and for all.
The actual originator of the term was Will Rogers when he spoke of supply side theorists plans for solving the woes of the Great Depression.

Then unfortunately David Stockman, chief Reaganomics proponent actually used the term, which was picked up by opponents and used in a mocking, jeering, M'arie Antoinette' sort of way. So populists started using it derisively, to expose the major, gaping flaw in the theory of supply side economics.

The major recent administrations that have purported supply side economics have been the Reagan and W Bush administrations. HW Bush couldn't move away from Reaganomics fast enough. The point being both administrations had stagnant job growth (relatively, to other administrations), greatly increased national debt, and had major, and nearly catastrophic economic downturns as hallmarks of their administrations economics policy.

Social Security Privatization
W Bush is the golden example of an actor that staked a lot of political capital on privatizing social security. If his administration hadn't bungled intelligence so badly, and then started two intractable wars, people may have remembered how badly he wanted to fuck the old people.

The fact of the matter is the government actually does some things better than private industry. It is popular to take everything that the government does, and find critical elements especially when taking the anecdotal stories out of context, (see Trump Campaign.) But the fact of the matter is that privatization can be incredibly expensive. Perfect example : See Indiana Toll road, and that is Mike Pence's baby, (great white hope of the Republican Party.)

The facts are still the same; thieves will say anything to steal your money. I still know people that were wiped out during the Bush administration (think Enron, other major insolvencies, including privatization of public pensions, relaxed rules on private pensions, and of course the repeated failures of S&L's through the housing collapse.

I have an acquaintance who served, I am thinking, about six months in Federal prison for his minor role in a fraudulent scheme to defraud the Workers Compensation Fund in the State of Ohio. This was only possible because of relaxed rules that promoted a path to privatization. Screw the fact that the private firms that came in to provide services for large employers in Ohio provided such bad service to injured workers that someone actually realized that these companies served the employers not the workers! Because nobody could figure out why these workers weren't getting better!

And this is what will happen if a private firm(s) are allowed to handle such a big concern, or outlay of public funds. The thieves will take what they don't think will be missed, until the whole thing comes to a crashing halt!

I have always wondered how someone that could label themselves as a conservative, could undertake such a radical task as fundamentally changing a government program that works. If you have a problem with Social Security, fund it. And don't eliminate front end programs that keep its cost down (ACA) fix them!

Specifically : "The Republicans' biggest problem, IMO, has been the discrepancy between how they've campaigned and how they've governed."

The Republicans biggest problem is the amount of lying they do to get elected.

They gerrymandered congressional districts so they will maintain advantage in the House until at least 2020, no matter what, and they repackage the same lies to get re-elected. But the fact of the matter is, the core of the Republican economic strategy has never worked. In part, because it is self serving; more provided for the wealthy. But partly because it requires a different type of government to make it succeed. England did better with laissez-faire because they had labor that would do their bidding, that they could then abuse, starve, kick, or kill like the Irish, Scottish, underclasses, and colonists around the world.

That is much more difficult to do in the United States. Or at least it has been.
 
B

Bogtrotter07

Guest
I think there's an aspect of the entire 2016 election that's been under-reported. Trump winning was a huge surprise and gets a ton of time and attention, as expected. But I think this election was a defeat for the entire Democratic party.

Republicans took the White House, held the House, held on to the Senate, and the country now has 33 Republican governors. If Trump beat Hillary but Dems took the House and Senate, you could solely blame Hillary. That's not the case.

2008 brought a huge shift to Democratic policies, and now 8 years later the pendulum swung heavily in the other direction.

Actually I believe the Democrats may come out of this ahead. Donna Brazile, Nancy Pelosi, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz will be gone. As will the Clintons. That alone is worth it.

As far as the Republicans - I believe they will collapse under their own weight. Remember, they didn't win this election. Trump did. And he won it with Obama voters and traditional Democrats.

The fissures in the Republican Party will grow. Donald Trump is a conservatives nightmare. How long will it be before major elements begin an impeachment movement to remove Donald, and install Mike Pence. Remember, Donald goes on trial next week.

And how many of the people who wanted Hillary crucified are going to accept Donald, Bill, and Hillary becoming besties again?

Thinking that 2008 led to a great shift toward Democratic policies is false. Early Obama was all about doing anything to keep the economy from collapsing. And of course it really started to look a lot different than Bush, because Bush policies contributed so strongly to the near collapse; record deficit spending, wars, tax breaks, abdication of government controls, etc.

Of course the interesting part is as the economy started to recover, and Obama experience a lack of any kind of partnership on the part of Republicans, he decided to do things his own way, and totally abandoned and effort toward bipartisan cooperation. This in my opinion is one of the single most important reasons Hillary lost. And the Republicans are now poised to do the exact same thing.

This seeming concentration of Republican power hasn't been seen since 1928. But remember, because of gerrymandering, and the Electoral College it was done without the support of a majority of Americans. And those Americans that put Trump over the top, voted for Obama before. Think they are going to give Republicans much time to fill their campaign promises? Can the Republicans fill those promises? Or is the American public going to realize that the real problem is the House of Representatives, which has what, a nineteen percent approval rating at best?

I really hope this country opens things up to more than two parties. Maybe the Republicans will do that among themselves, because even Donald Trump said this is the last chance to put together his coalition. Even demographics are working against the traditional parties.

Like my grandpa said, "Do you really want to hire the alligator to drain the swamp?"

And, that the problem with alligators is that they have very short arms, so the reach of their teeth is greater than that of their arms.
 

NDgradstudent

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TBF Trump isn't a repudiation of anything. He's a complete rorschach who will agree with whoever he happens to have talked to most recently.

At least in this campaign, he ran on a platform of immigration restriction. He is a repudiation of the liberal consensus on immigration: that it is good, perfect, we need more, we should grant an amnesty, etc.

The Democrats embraced an extreme platform, in favor of a blanket amnesty, no requirement that immigrants learn English, executive abdication of duty by refusing to enforce our laws, and so on.

Maybe Trump has been lying? Certainly possible. I have no idea what he will do. But for purposes of politics, his election means that the GOP will have to embrace an immigration restrictionist platform in the future.
 

BobbyMac

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The Democratic Party is dead. Long live the Progressive Party!

It's all that's... Left!

T-shirts and bumper stickers available soon.
 

CrownRoyal

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Actually I believe the Democrats may come out of this ahead. Donna Brazile, Nancy Pelosi, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz will be gone. As will the Clintons. That alone is worth it.

As far as the Republicans - I believe they will collapse under their own weight. Remember, they didn't win this election. Trump did. And he won it with Obama voters and traditional Democrats.

The fissures in the Republican Party will grow. Donald Trump is a conservatives nightmare. How long will it be before major elements begin an impeachment movement to remove Donald, and install Mike Pence. Remember, Donald goes on trial next week.

And how many of the people who wanted Hillary crucified are going to accept Donald, Bill, and Hillary becoming besties again?

Thinking that 2008 led to a great shift toward Democratic policies is false. Early Obama was all about doing anything to keep the economy from collapsing. And of course it really started to look a lot different than Bush, because Bush policies contributed so strongly to the near collapse; record deficit spending, wars, tax breaks, abdication of government controls, etc.

Of course the interesting part is as the economy started to recover, and Obama experience a lack of any kind of partnership on the part of Republicans, he decided to do things his own way, and totally abandoned and effort toward bipartisan cooperation. This in my opinion is one of the single most important reasons Hillary lost. And the Republicans are now poised to do the exact same thing.

This seeming concentration of Republican power hasn't been seen since 1928. But remember, because of gerrymandering, and the Electoral College it was done without the support of a majority of Americans. And those Americans that put Trump over the top, voted for Obama before. Think they are going to give Republicans much time to fill their campaign promises? Can the Republicans fill those promises? Or is the American public going to realize that the real problem is the House of Representatives, which has what, a nineteen percent approval rating at best?

I really hope this country opens things up to more than two parties. Maybe the Republicans will do that among themselves, because even Donald Trump said this is the last chance to put together his coalition. Even demographics are working against the traditional parties.

Like my grandpa said, "Do you really want to hire the alligator to drain the swamp?"

And, that the problem with alligators is that they have very short arms, so the reach of their teeth is greater than that of their arms.
The yada yada continues!
Stop reading into things that just are not there.
The People are not as stupid as the Liberals believe.
You can push and push, then the People push back, end of story!
 
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