2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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IrishinSyria

In truth lies victory
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Understand analysis and proposing tweaking...for instance instead of all or nothing, an apportioned approach.

I totally do not get the point about faithless voters changing the vote because that is NOT how the system is intended to work, nor is it utilizing any constructive means to long term change, and would indeed cause tremendous damage to faith and trust in the institution. I think we all know there is a difference between hating how the system works, and changing it, and circumventing a system for an outcome in terms of buy in form EVERYONE.


To be clear, I am not advocating for faithless electors and my feelings are very mixed as to whether or not I want them to go rogue (they won't).

But they are unquestionably a part of the system- for reasons buried way back in the founding era and that arguably no longer exist, we set up a system that allowed for that possibility.

The possibility of faithless electors changing the outcome is imo the worst feature of a bad (or outdated) system.
 

Irish#1

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Disagree. As citizens (and even if they are not) they have a right to express their opinion, it is just a matter of how much credence you give to their opinions.

Does being an entertainer make you smarter than the rest of the citizenship? Obviously the answer is no. Here's the problem with them speaking out. They have a platform that reaches hundreds of thousands of people. You, me, the local mechanic don't have that luxury or platform to push our agenda. If these folks were graduates from Yale, Harvard, etc. and were experts that would be different.
 

BGIF

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Does being an entertainer make you smarter than the rest of the citizenship? Obviously the answer is no. Here's the problem with them speaking out. They have a platform that reaches hundreds of thousands of people. You, me, the local mechanic don't have that luxury or platform to push our agenda. If these folks were graduates from Yale, Harvard, etc. and were experts that would be different.


While Yale and Harvard grads have been a significant part of U.S government/policy over two centuries you may want to re-word "that would be different".

George W. Bush graduated from both Yale and Harvard.

Barack Obama has a Harvard Law Degree.
 

Ndaccountant

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I don't think the electoral college is necessarily the problem. The problem is that all three elected bodies (President, Senate, House) use voting systems that favor the same set of voters.

The Senate is the most obvious example of this, and was deliberately set up so that rural states wouldn't be ignored. That's fine. But it becomes problematic when a rural voter has a louder voice in all three elected bodies as is the case today.

I think there were originally semi-valid concerns about cities wielding a disproportionate amount of power because their concentrated populations were easier to reach (I say semi-valid because you can't really talk about the structure of our government without acknowledging that a lot of it was set up to protect slavery). But as the country has shifted from largely rural to largely urban (63% of the country lives in cities or suburbs) the system that was set up to keep cities from gaining a disproportionate share of power is now pretty demonstrably giving rural areas a disproportionate share of power.

I also don't agree that rural states would be ignored if we shifted to a popular vote system. Sure, Ohio and Pennsylvania and a handful of other swing states wouldn't get the insane number of visits they get now, but you still couldn't win an election by ignoring rural concerns unless you captured close to 100% of the urban vote.

At the end of the day, it's a lot of hot air. Whether through formal agreement or Constitutional Amendment, the system's not going to change without the cooperation of states that have a vested interest in keeping it in place. To the extent the popular vote's relevant, it's relevant in defining the scope of Trump's mandate.

I view the EC as a hybrid of the Senate and House and it is by no means perfect. Races are not bound by districts, but each state gets a % of the overall weighting. As is with most elections, turnout is often the determining factor and if urban voter turnout was higher this election, nobody would be arguing today.
 

IrishinSyria

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I view the EC as a hybrid of the Senate and House and it is by no means perfect. Races are not bound by districts, but each state gets a % of the overall weighting. As is with most elections, turnout is often the determining factor and if urban voter turnout was higher this election, nobody would be arguing today.

It absolutely is a hybrid but they're all variations on the same theme and they all reward the same class of voters. And I'm pretty sure that when all is said and done Clinton will have gotten close to the total number of votes Obama got in 2012 so I'm not even sure turnout explains it fully.
 

IrishinSyria

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...like I said I can see my way to apportioned results coming from each state as a reasonable step to consider. So even in fly over states, the cities may well tilt Democrat..which makes them now matter. But if you do not have a clear trace to each state's will, you are inviting a fight you should avoid. We already give states with more people more EC votes...now it seems like folks want cities to count more...YEA, NO THANKS!

Lol, I think city folks want to count in proportion to their share of the population. But I do think apportioned results make a lot of sense and would be a good way to preserve the system.
 

ulukinatme

Carr for QB 2026!
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Just to vent:

I'm growing tired of the "We need to use the popular vote!" or "The Electoral College is unfair!" complaints. Someone whom I highly respect for their intelligence completely let me down today with an argument about the Elec. voting and how poorly weighted it is using the WY vs CA comparison (perhaps you've seen the meme). While I don't disagree that the weighting is off based on population per state per electoral vote, even when you re-run the numbers with fair weighting, Trump still crushes Clinton. She was a horrible candidate and it showed by how few states she won. A better Dem candidate could've fought for FL, PA, MI, WI...maybe even OH and IN. But she lost ALL of those. Again, even with better distribution of the 530+ electoral votes, Trump still wins EASILY. I hate it, but facts are facts.

Secondly, the popular vote completely eliminates any representation Heartland America would receive. All future POTUS would be elected via the big/populated Dem-leaning cities. Which is completely unfair. I can't seem to understand why smarter people don't recognize this.

I saw this comparison between California and Wyoming today too.
For one, I believe nearly 1/10th (Estimated at as many as 3.5 million) of California's 38.8 million population could be illegal. They don't mention that in the comparison.
Second, they picked Wyoming to compare which is the least populous state in the US and is already tied at the lowest number of electoral college votes at 3 along with several other states. It's easy to see why Wyoming was chosen given no state has fewer than 3, even though some states have nearly twice the population of Wyoming and are still at the minimum 3 votes.

In any case, so the left wants to whine about the electoral college distribution using that analogy, but in fact the votes are fairly well distributed among the big boys. When you look at all the major players in the electoral college they have a fairly proportional number of votes based on population. So, I posed this solution to those people...if you took the 8 least populous states, which are all at 1 million people or below (No DC): Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, and Rhode Island....and you reduced them from their 3 electoral votes to 1 and gave those extra votes to California...Hillary still loses the election. For one, 3 of those states were already blue. The other 5 states would only be flipping 10 electoral votes to blue California, so it does the left no good.
 

IrishLax

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<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mUkv_jPgTeg?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Really worth a watch, some money quotes:
I don't believe we're a fundamentally different country today than we were two weeks ago. ... The same country that elected Donald Trump elected Barack Obama.
There is now this idea that anyone who voted for him has to be defined by the worst of his rhetoric. Like, there are guys in my neighborhood that I love, that I respect, that I think have incredible qualities who are not afraid of Mexicans, and not afraid of Muslims, and not afraid of blacks. They’re afraid of their insurance premiums.
 

ulukinatme

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Interesting to see Jon Stewart so rational and reserved here. Seems like he's been rather outspoken about Trump throughout the election, but he had some very good points in that interview and I think realized why this happened. I think it's good that someone of the left wing also realizes that painting all of Trump's supporters with a racist broad stroke is a bad move that will ultimately leave a bigger divide and push both sides further apart. I mean, that's one of the reasons this election went the way it did to begin with.
 

IrishinSyria

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ld-trump-is-in-the-white-house-because-of-me/

An interview with the dude who wrote all those fake news stories.

You mentioned Trump, and you’ve probably heard the argument, or the concern, that fake news somehow helped him get elected. What do you make of that?

My sites were picked up by Trump supporters all the time. I think Trump is in the White House because of me. His followers don’t fact-check anything — they’ll post everything, believe anything. His campaign manager posted my story about a protester getting paid $3,500 as fact. Like, I made that up. I posted a fake ad on Craigslist.

I guess I’m curious, if you believed you might be having an unfair impact on the election — especially if that impact went against your own political beliefs — why didn’t you stop? Why keep writing?

I didn’t think it was possible for him to get elected president. I thought I was messing with the campaign, maybe I wasn’t messing them up as much as I wanted — but I never thought he’d actually get elected. I didn’t even think about it. In hindsight, everyone should’ve seen this coming — everyone assumed Hillary [Clinton] would just get in. But she didn’t, and Trump is president.
 

fightingirish26

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It's so creepy when people call her "Hillary." Do they know her personally? "Mrs. Bill Clinton" is more accurate.

The good news is nobody has to give a damn about either of them anymore.

I always hated that tradition (Mr. and Mrs. [husbands's first name] Last name). Really wipes the woman of her identity.
 

BGIF

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ld-trump-is-in-the-white-house-because-of-me/

An interview with the dude who wrote all those fake news stories.


So the Dems can relax now. No need to fire Brazile. No need to banish Wasserman Schultz. No need to embrace the middle class. No need for your candidate to visit college campuses, union halls, or African American churches or states in the Blue Wall. Everything the Dems and Hillary did was right.

Just make sure Mr. Fake News Writer doesn't participate in the mid-terms or 2020 elections and you guys will rebound to retake the White House, Senate, and Congress.

The strains of "Happy Days Are Here Again" will once again echo across the redness ... and in 20 or 30 years you'll retake SCOTUS.
 

BGIF

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It's so creepy when people call her "Hillary." Do they know her personally? "Mrs. Bill Clinton" is more accurate.

The good news is nobody has to give a damn about either of them anymore.


Obviously not a student of history.

Ms Hillary RODHAM Clinton was the way the media was instructed to refer to her when she became First Lady.

Now that the election is over I wouldn't be surprised to see divorce papers served as he's nothing but baggage now and no longer has any coattails to ride on.

But then there's Chelsea's Run to consider. The family that stays together ...

Who says you can't fool some of the people all of the time.
 

IrishinSyria

In truth lies victory
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So the Dems can relax now. No need to fire Brazile. No need to banish Wasserman Schultz. No need to embrace the middle class. No need for your candidate to visit college campuses, union halls, or African American churches or states in the Blue Wall. Everything the Dems and Hillary did was right.

Just make sure Mr. Fake News Writer doesn't participate in the mid-terms or 2020 elections and you guys will rebound to retake the White House, Senate, and Congress.

The strains of "Happy Days Are Here Again" will once again echo across the redness ... and in 20 or 30 years you'll retake SCOTUS.

Yup, that totally was meant to be a comprehensive retrospective on the election on my part and this is a good faith response.
 

IrishSteelhead

All Flair, No Substance
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7a533ad10b7fcfeda0a8360bc731b9f1.jpg
 

Irish#1

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In more serious news, did this really happen?

0c54343f6f73b4c63b4db5d980863eb7.jpg


That's pretty sick

Could this be a little shot at the press for the way they kept hammering on Trump during the election? Press trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill.
 

Irish YJ

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Kanye West: I didn't vote but if I did, 'I would have voted for Trump' - CNN.com

So Debra Messing/Hollywood's list isn't even correct.
I'm sure Trump is moist now that he has Kanye's support. Lol.

TOLERANCE ALERT! Debra Messing blasts Susan Sarandon for not backing Hillary – twitchy.com

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">To all those who find blaming me less painful than introspection, never knew I was this powerful. <a href="https://t.co/etgSWBcH6a">pic.twitter.com/etgSWBcH6a</a></p>— Susan Sarandon (@SusanSarandon) <a href="https://twitter.com/SusanSarandon/status/798944467399147520">November 16, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Hollywood eating their own
 

connor_in

Oh Yeeaah!!!
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All this makes me wonder who Taylor Swift voted for...

Didn't you see the articles on election day. What she wore gave you the clue to how she voted (per the srticles).


Sadly, I am not kidding, https://www.yahoo.com/style/taylor-swift-voted-everyone-around-164521228.html

However, as reported on Racked, Taylor Swift's outfit is not merely the clothes she threw on haphazardly this morning after the 20th birthday party she threw for Lorde last night.

Rather, the off the shoulder look is a subtle nod toward Hillary Clinton, for whom she is presumably voting.

Kaitlyn Tiffany first pointed out on Twitter that Swift's shouldeless top is a reference an Instagram posted by occasional squad member Lena Dunham.
 

Irish YJ

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connor_in

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Nah, if it looks like he could do it, KK would hang for it. Think of all the great Keeping Up episodes they'd have for E!
 
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