2016 Presidential Horse Race

[IrishLax]

Sounds like Mexico is going to have one hell of a tab to pay.

Couldn't help myself.

One way to jump start the economy, amirite?

 

[Bluto]

One way to jump start the economy, amirite?

The Mexican side would have a kick ass stucco job and bitchin murals. The US side would probably just be plain white paint.

 

[ulukinatme]

Stole this from the Shag

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fNkniZU4VsA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[ulukinatme]

Interesting, more fake news and bogus racism from the election blow back:

"Police take action against sign promoting lynching over ‘equal rights’"
https://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/ha...st-sign-promoting-lynching-over-equal-rights/

Long story short, the owner of the home displaying the offensive banner (I won't link it here, although it may have made it's way here on a previous page) is actually African American. I know there are some inexcusably racist things going on in the last week, but it's hard to get a gauge on how much of it isn't manufactured to fuel more outrage...especially when some of these more overt actions and heinous ones turn out to be fake.

 

[Cackalacky]

IMO, because it makes no sense. It's not viable. It's been studied.

I worked on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SBInet

I have extensive CBP/DHS experience. I've worked in every sector and most stations on the Mexican border. A wall is just really fucking stupid... a physical barrier is not viable in many locations. And in places where a physical barrier is viable, there are lots of other problems with installing one.

I imagine what will happen is that once Trump is given all this information he will push for a border security program that includes a small section of beefed up "wall" + other funding for measures that will actually be effective. That's my guess. It should also be noted that our border security right now is not nearly as bad as it's made out to be and there is surprisingly little illegal immigration at the moment (at least last I was actually appraised of data which was awhile ago so that might not still be accurate).

Thanks for this post Lax. I just lacked the time to go into in more detail. I also want to add that during the primaries when Trump said he was going to make Mexico pay for he was it talking about a metaphorical wall and I don't think he meant a metaphorical and I don't think his supports thought he was talking about metaphorical wall so let's stop trying to reframe his campaign ormoise into something it's not.

Secondly if he was to build a complete wall which as Lax and I have said is completely unlikely to be built, there would have to be so much more infrastructure installed to fully seal the border. It would take nonstop patrols, tunneling surveys, several "bases" to house and protect border patrols etc. It would need to be fully manned 24-7 to stop everyone and that is unreasonable. Sure we have all that technology but we would have to have enough officers to react to that data immediately.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I'm not a big wall guy...but, I have seen, touched, and implemented sensors and related technologies in buildings which detect

1) damage
2) tectonic activity
3) heat sources
4) water / water damage
5) air born disruption (fly over)
6) Chemical and bio agent presence

They also characterize damage to themselves, and inform likely remedies.

Do you need a huge wall...na, you do need some structure though.

I think if you frame this simply as a chain link fence from 1972, yea, prolly not.

If you see the fence as a metaphor for deployment of sensor and signal nets...now you might be closer. If you see this as a potential to be part of a defense, DEA, and immigration enterprise, then I think this starts to make more sense to more folks.

How much territory did those sensors cover? How much did they cost per mile?

 

[Cackalacky]

The Mexican side would have a kick ass stucco job and bitchin murals. The US side would probably just be plain white paint.

I forsee one huge Mexican city along the entire southern border. South Carolina is already promoting and has been for 66 years

 

[IrishinSyria]

Adviser says Trump won't rip up Iran deal, signals he may not move embassy | The Times of Israel

The great walk back continues. I view this as a huge positive, tearing up the Iran deal would have been a mistake.

 

[Irish#1]

And again, to be very clear, there are very large stretches of the border where various forms of wall already exist. They have limited effectiveness, even the ones that are like 15' tall. They're basically decent at stopping vehicles from crossing but through tunnels and other means it's really not that hard to figure out how to beat a wall... the freaking Mongolians hundreds of years ago figured out a much more robust wall than Trump could ever hope to build.

What does work is surveillance and patrols... thinks like IR cameras, etc. People would be shocked at how competent our border security is right now. Professionals (e.g. cartels) still find workarounds through tunnels or boating from Mexico out to the Pacific Ocean and trying to beat the Coast Guard or smuggling straight through POEs. And a bigger wall isn't really going to fix any of that.

Listen to LAX. I'm by no means an expert, but if any of you have watched any of those TV shows that are on border security, there already are some walls and technology in place. It can be improved, but a true wall of that magnitude is not feasible for so many reasons.

I'm also in the camp that never believed he would build a wall. I think that was a strategy used in his campaign to garner votes.

 

[connor_in]

I didn't see this posted yet

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SHG0ezLiVGc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[BleedBlueGold]

1) The way the Left is handling this election outcome is counterproductive and lacks any self-evaluation and reflection. It's beyond annoying.

2) LOL at Trump's (a) cabinet selections (b) his 60 Min interview. Non-Trump supporters have been saying this entire election that he doesn't have concrete policies and now he's just proving us all right in the way he's back pedaling and changing his tone. Drain the swamp? Yea, how's that going? Deportation squads to get rid of the 11M illegals? Yea, how's that going? Build a wall? Repeal ACA?

In regards to the last two, we've been over this hypothetical wall scenario and LAX (as in the past and again now) is right on the money. Politicians have had a wall policy on the shelf for decades. There's a reason they don't actually go through with it. Secondly, in regards to ACA...Trump's campaign has been talking about keeping these provisions the whole time. I'm not sure why this is such news. Also, everything I've read suggests that House Rs have had a replacement plan (that includes these provisions) on deck, just waiting for the time to actually have the ability to repeal ACA so they can replace it. So I hate to defend Trump ever, but he's going to take heat from this from the Left (for not totally repealing ACA like he supposedly "promised" [which he didn't] and they'll call him a hypocrite just to push their narrative) and from the Right Trumpbots (for backing off his 100-days in promise to repeal it completely).

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Woman arrested at anti-Trump protest in Fort Lauderdale after throwing water on Trump supporters.<a href="https://t.co/MxGe5QooYI">pic.twitter.com/MxGe5QooYI</a></p>— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) <a href="https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/797992033159966720">November 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I didn't see this posted yet

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SHG0ezLiVGc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I miss Dave Chappelle so much.

 

[greyhammer90]

Is there anyway to move the PC/revolts discussion to the PC thread and make this thread a discussion of Trump presidential policies/effects going forward? Or we could do the reverse and leave this thread to the election fallout and move the serious discussion to the Politics thread? Whatever you're looking for it feels like a lot to wade through.

 

[wizards8507]

I didn't see this posted yet.

His monologue was great, too.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/--IS0XiNdpk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Is there anyway to move the PC/revolts discussion to the PC thread and make this thread a discussion of Trump presidential policies/effects going forward? Or we could do the reverse and leave this thread to the election fallout and move the serious discussion to the Politics thread? Whatever you're looking for it feels like a lot to wade through.

I agree. I'd vote to just start a new Trump Presidency thread (I just puked in my mouth).

His monologue was great, too.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/--IS0XiNdpk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

He killed it. I wish he'd bring his show back and do it on Netflix or HBO and be completely uncensored.

 

[RDU Irish]

I agree. I'd vote to just start a new Trump Presidency thread (I just puked in my mouth).



He killed it. I wish he'd bring his show back and do it on Netflix or HBO and be completely uncensored.

N bomb doesn't count because it was ending in "a" and not "er"?

I was deeply offended by his bigoted remarks against white people - I might go protest.

 

[wizards8507]

I agree. I'd vote to just start a new Trump Presidency thread (I just puked in my mouth).

He killed it. I wish he'd bring his show back and do it on Netflix or HBO and be completely uncensored.

Did you actually watch the clip that you said Chapelle "killed"? "I'm wishing Donald Trump luck, and I'm going to give him a chance."

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Did you actually watch the clip that you said Chapelle "killed"? "I'm wishing Donald Trump luck, and I'm going to give him a chance."

I'm confused by your question.

Specifically what you quoted - I heard it as Trump wasn't someone he wanted to see win, but hoping for his failure is essentially hoping for America to fail. I think he's trying to be a voice of reason to everyone on the left crying "racism" and suggesting we give Trump a chance to be a good POTUS. But he also said that he hopes Trump essentially represents the disenfranchised and doesn't turn his back on them.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm confused by your question.

Specifically what you quoted - I heard it as Trump wasn't someone he wanted to see win, but hoping for his failure is essentially hoping for America to fail. I think he's trying to be a voice of reason to everyone on the left crying "racism" and suggesting we give Trump a chance to be a good POTUS. But he also said that he hopes Trump essentially represents the disenfranchised and doesn't turn his back on them.

My point is that your comment "I'd vote to just start a new Trump Presidency thread (I just puked in my mouth)" is counter-productive in the spirit of "giving him a chance."

 

[connor_in]

I'm confused by your question.

Specifically what you quoted - I heard it as Trump wasn't someone he wanted to see win, but hoping for his failure is essentially hoping for America to fail. I think he's trying to be a voice of reason to everyone on the left crying "racism" and suggesting we give Trump a chance to be a good POTUS. But he also said that he hopes Trump essentially represents the disenfranchised and doesn't turn his back on them.

Just for background...

Dave Chappelle Rips Clinton: ‘She’s Not Right and We All Know It’ | Observer

written pre-election, 11/05/16

 

[BleedBlueGold]

My point is that your comment "I'd vote to just start a new Trump Presidency thread (I just puked in my mouth)" is counter-productive in the spirit of "giving him a chance."

I get what you're saying.

Look, I'm not doing cartwheels and backflips over Trump being in the WH, but I also believe that the POTUS should be respected - held accountable, but respected regardless.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

His monologue was great, too.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/--IS0XiNdpk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Agreed. He's a brilliant guy.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Touching on many points I made last week, here's The Week's Michael Brendan Dougherty with an article titled "What if we really can make America great again?":

Success has its own kind of persuasion. And in the wake of Donald Trump's stunning electoral victory, many conservatives who long opposed him are trying to talk themselves into President Trump.

We don't know what sort of president Trump will be, largely because he campaigned out of both sides of his mouth. Will he seek peace in the Middle East or will he "knock the hell out of" ISIS and take the oil? Will he get bored and hand over legislation to fiscal conservatives like Paul Ryan and supply-siders like adviser Stephen Moore? Or will he pursue an expansionary fiscal policy, building big beautiful infrastructure projects? Does he really believe in free trade? Or will he resort to tariffs and punishing currency manipulators?

Or will it all collapse in a heap because Donald Trump is so personally inept?

Some conservatives openly worry that Trump has no patience for reading briefing material, or adjudicating arguments among his advisers. That's so much of what presidents actually do every day. At the same time, there is some humility about how much we've underestimated Trump before. And frankly, that feeling of humiliation is accompanied by some relief that Republicans will appoint Antonin Scalia's replacement on the Supreme Court, and that we've avoided Hillary Clinton.

Some conservatives are even beginning to say to each other, "I know it's crazy, but what if we really can make America great again?"

I'm one of them.

Maybe it's just the post-election concussion talking, but in this moment, I can almost squint and see a path whereby Republicans really can save Trumpism from Trump, and reinvigorate the country.

The 2016 election shows a way forward. Trump won the election by campaigning in what Michael Moore called "the Brexit states": Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states gave Trump the election. He expanded the GOP's share of lower-income voters. He expanded its share of Hispanic and black voters, presumably many of them in the working class as well. In these voters was a mandate for a new economic nationalism. Republicans must take the radical, risky, and painful steps to actually become the party Trump promised he would lead.

These working-class voters were former Obama supporters who continue to demand the redistribution of economic resources and opportunities. They were the people that thrilled to Trump when he said, in front of Ford executives, that if the automaker moved its plants from Detroit to Mexico, he'd hammer them with a 35 percent tariff. Trump must deliver for these people in his first term or they will return to the Democrats in 2020. Partisanship on culture war issues and other forms of tribalism locks in most voters. But the Brexit states proved that they can swing to the GOP.

Democrats used to be the party that delivered tangible material benefits to their clients: Social Security, welfare, Affirmative Action. But increasingly, they've gotten worse at this. ObamaCare is janky, user-unfriendly, and expensive for its beneficiaries. Democrats have tried to make up for it by promising other less tangible goals, like humiliating the "deplorables" and defeating sexism. That's not enough for the Brexit states.

Republicans in Congress already drive Democrats crazy in the way the GOP becomes the party of green eyeshades and budget constraint under Democratic presidents, and the party of fiscal expansion under Republican presidents. Well, here we go: The GOP should become dramatically expansionary and seek to make good on Trump's promises. That means infrastructure spending. It also means Republicans should fight to make the country a better place to employ workers. One of the easiest places to start is to make the corporate tax rate at least competitive with Germany, Canada, or even Ireland. It also means finding ways to check the currency manipulation of China and Germany, which use American money and credit to subsidize foreign workforces. Republicans could even seek what Edward Conrad calls "balanced trade" policies that demand China and other trade partners buy American goods rather than treasuries.

At the same time, the GOP must encourage Trump to strip the racist baggage from his rhetoric, and scrupulously expand the appeal of the new nationalism from older whites to American workers of all races. Republicans can win when the Democrats become the party of Goldman Sachs, safe spaces on campus, and the redistribution of economic opportunity to non-Americans. All over Europe and other parts of the world, right-wing nationalist parties are pitching themselves to the working class, and pushing the party of social liberalism to embrace the unpopular politics of economic liberalism, enforced cosmopolitanism in culture, and mass immigration. The center-left has increasingly justified its support of the free movement of labor and capital because it breaks up the private hierarchies of cohesive national cultures. Call this liberaltarianism, if you like. It's an ideology that conservatives can defeat over and over again if they are willing to become a workers' party.

Republicans should learn from Trump to personalize their economic message. Jeb Bush promised an economic metric — 4 percent growth — and he lost. Trump said he would punish countries and companies that don't play by the rules, and he won. Republicans should say they will work tirelessly to create a country where if one member of your household works hard, that household has a decent standard of living and the children of that house have a fair shot at a better one. By doing so, they can begin to divide the alliance between workers with material needs from the political system, and the affluent cultural left of the cities. If it costs the Republicans a few white guys in bow-ties who love to talk about the markets, so be it.

Of course, this is probably all an impossible ask. All the potential good of a Trump presidency is likely to be destroyed by Trump's personal incompetence and corruption, his short attention span, his malice, and his propensity to hire loyalists that share his touchy ego and taste for vengeance. The best argument against Trump from the very beginning is that he sells you on what you want to hear, and then sticks you with his moral and financial debts. He's a con man.

Instead of a workers' party, Trump will likely give the plum economic offices to decrepit supply-siders who think America is still living in 1979. Instead of realists who pull America back from the abyss of violence and disorder in the Middle East, he'll give the jobs to Jacksonian hawks looking for payback. And instead of seeking to make the new nationalism accessible to workers of all races, he'll further alienate blacks and Hispanics by appointing hardliners to top law enforcement positions, and saying nasty things about his black and Hispanic critics.

But just give me this one moment. I'm still concussed, and thought someone should describe the revolutionary potential of this moment before it is flushed away down a gold-plated toilet in the White House.

"Why the GOP ought to cut wizards loose."

 

[GoIrish41]

Right up front, I’m going to apologize for the length of this post. I’ve kind of backed away from posting since the election to give myself some time to wrap my head around the result of this election. Like most people, including those in his campaign who spoke off the record last Monday, I was floored by the result. I think I’ve been clear over the past year, so I’m not going to rehash my distaste for a Trump presidency here.

The fact is that Donald Trump will be our president (I just threw up in my mouth a little). I’m not calling the election “rigged,” or denying the legitimacy of the peoples’ choice. I’m not protesting in the streets or calling people names. As he will be our new president, I wish him success as I said in a post on election night. If he is successful as the chief executive, the country will be successful.

So, as most of you can imagine, my family – wife, two daughters and two sons – are all liberals. And each of us kind of absorbed the blunt force trauma of a Trump presidency in our own way.

For all of the things that Donald Trump said during the course of the election, Daughter #1 could not get past his stance on climate change. His view that it is a Chinese hoax in view of all of the scientific data is insanity, and that his election as our chief executive previews a world fundamentally worse off than the one he inherited. She believes that his views will make it more difficult for this country to do the right thing to save the planet from catastrophic harm and the world she and her generation will face will be one with more dire long term consequences in favor of inaction for the short term profits of the billionaire class.

Daughter #2, who has spent her 21 years as the paragon of empathy, finds Trump offensive in every conceivable way. She finds his divisive rhetoric to be the source of contempt between people who have been divided into demographic groups – Muslims who may not be allowed into the country, Mexicans who will always be looked upon as “takers” despite their legal status in the country, African Americans who have been systematically mistreated, and women as emotional, secondary citizens who will not receive equality in the male dominated world under Trump’s watch. Her primary concern is that people in this country will be mistreated, not only by the candidate, but by fellow citizens. Her world view is that this can’t possibly make things in this country better, only worse. She is afraid for minority groups who could be mistreated as Trump’s supporters are emboldened by Trump’s rhetoric.

Son #1 believes that Trump is a white supremacist who did not merely use his hateful rhetoric to appeal to lower educated, un-nuanced voters. He is convinced that he actually believes the hateful things he has said. His reaction is visceral and he is angry at people who supported Trump – that they had so little respect for minorities and women to vote this guy into the most powerful position on earth. Incidentally, he has no misgivings about the Clinton machine that is so despised by the right. He views them as a couple who realized long ago how government works, and no matter how disgusting it was, they were willing to roll up their sleeves to make it work to accomplish what they envisioned for the country. He doesn’t view them as evil, he views them as sausage makers. And while he understands how gross the making of sausage no doubt is, he rationalizes that if you focus on what is going on inside the grinder you may never want to eat sausage again. And that would be your loss, because sausage is delicious. While he is not Clinton fan, he didn’t think it was fair to focus on the sausage making to the point that you turn your nose up at the result. This is particularly true when the country has appeared to forego sausage for four years of haggis.

Son #2, who is not yet of voting age and did not have an opportunity to reject Donald Trump, is afraid of what will happen in the world with a loose cannon like this in charge. He fears there will be a massive war, and as he approaches adulthood his only experiences of this nation’s place in the world will be framed by war and hatred. He has listened as to Trump say very aggressive things about other countries (even allies) and he cannot fathom how such incendiary talk cannot lead to conflict. He is afraid.

My wife believes that Trump has so little respect for women that he cannot logically or morally lead a country that is half women. The video of him making remarks about grabbing women by the pussy because he is rich inspired more disgust than anything I’ve ever seen in the 25 years since I’ve known her. She is appalled by people who defend him and all of the horrible things he’s said about minorities and women. Those who claim “he didn’t mean that,” when he has said all manner of ignorant and offensive things during his campaign, has affected her view of people in general and their capacity for civility and respect. She is taking this election personally.

I have no doubt that my kids’ and my wife's political ideas have been shaped by my own. But all of them have carried ideas I’ve had further and made them their own. I’m proud of all of them for becoming politically active and engaged, but part of elections is that your candidate does not always win. And like a lot of people (dad included) my kids have been disappointed, to say the least. But, it might interest many of you that in my household this week, GoIrish41 has been the voice of reason. (lol) Here is what I told my family.

First and foremost my generation – the Baby Boomers – sucks at running a country. Everything we have touched has turned to shit. The culmination of our failures has led to a nation that has been willing to accept Donald J. Trump as the President of the United States of America. If you want a better America than that, you need to seize this government back in four years. Rip it from the grasp of the incompetent and the ignorant, and make it your country! After lifetimes of everyone telling you that you don’t know shit, take your country back and prove them wrong. You are not the lazy, whiny shits that need constant coddling -- you are a generation that cares about humanity, and decency, about the world in which you live. This is what elections are for, and apathy and “principled” votes for third parties or abstentions because Bernie didn’t win the primaries are a recipe for putting a guy like Donald Trump in charge.

I told them to take elections seriously, but don’t wait for four years to do it. Begin today. We all saw the map and what it would look like if just Millennials voted – it is within their power to make the map look like that in four years even when everyone votes. Get off your asses and get your face out of your telephones. Stop telling people what they can’t believe and show them a better way. Convince them! Talk to people – organize – build something. Young people represent the largest and fastest growing voting block in this country and THEY will decide who the next president is either through the ballot box, or through apathy. It is up to them. If they want a country that faces the danger inherent to a changing climate, or that puts a premium on civility and respect, or a nation that views war as a last resort and not a means to every end, and one that treats all of our citizens with fairness and dignity, they need to figure out what they are prepared to do about shaping it for their future. They can continue to eat the shit sandwich that my generation keeps putting in front of them, or they can remake the country that they want it to be. It is really up to them!

Let this be a lesson to them – elections are decisions about national direction, yes, but sometimes they are a choice about the lesser of two evils. There is no safe space in general elections – you have to choose one or you will absolutely live with the consequences of the other. Donald Trump is going to be our president. If that offends you to your core, as it does me, today is the day to begin making sure that only lasts for four years.

 

[connor_in]

WOW: Here’s what the Obama era has done for Dems in 1 brutal chart – twitchy.com

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This chart is stunning<a href="https://t.co/g7jrBV8R02">https://t.co/g7jrBV8R02</a> <a href="https://t.co/YXCUQOPYgQ">pic.twitter.com/YXCUQOPYgQ</a></p>— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/797896165362569216">November 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

One of the comments in the article says the 2018 midterm elections will have 25 D senate seats up for re-election. so only about 8 R senate seats...is that correct?

 

[Irish#1]

I didn't see this posted yet

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SHG0ezLiVGc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Saw it Saturday night. Might be one of the best all time skits on SNL.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Republicans have 33 red-red legislatures (plus Nebraska) one shy of the # to call an Article V constitutional convention <a href="https://t.co/pPKADTLuDB">pic.twitter.com/pPKADTLuDB</a></p>— election accepter (@cd_hooks) <a href="https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/797480012446388225">November 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Article V Convention of the States FTW. #MakeAmericaFederalistAgain

The Liberty Amendments

1. Impose Congressional term limits
2. Repeal the Seventeenth Amendment, returning the election of Senators to state legislatures
3. Impose term limits for Supreme Court Justices and restrict judicial review
4. Require a balanced budget and limit federal spending and taxation
5. Define a deadline to file taxes (one day before the next federal election)
6. Subject federal departments and bureaucratic regulations to periodic reauthorization and review
7. Create a more specific definition of the Commerce Clause
8. Limit eminent domain powers
9. Allow states to more easily amend the Constitution by bypassing Congress
10. Create a process where two-thirds of the states can nullify federal laws
11. Require photo ID to vote and limit early voting

 

[IrishBroker]

Yes, Chappelle killed it. If there is any indication he needs to comeback, it's the huge ratings he got.

When I saw Silky Johnson, I lost my mind. Miss his show. College memories.....

I though Key and Peele would take the torch..but they've kinda fizzled out.

 

[connor_in]

WHOA. Democrats will stop at NOTHING to stop Trump; are they doxing electoral college reps? – twitchy.com