2016-2017 Notre Dame Men's Basketball

[ACamp1900]

just seems like a Cleveland Browns thing at this point.

yourself... go fuck it.

 

[IrishLax]

That would be crazy.

After they beat Wisconsin, literally every CBB writer in America was talking about how Northwestern was finally a lock for their first ever tourny appearance.

It seriously is crazy, because since then:
-They're 1-3, with the only win coming over lowly sub-.500 Rutgers.
-Two of those losses are to teams projected on the outside of the tournament bubble.
-Wisconsin has continued losing and is now only a projected 6 seed... barely a top 25 win.

So they play two tournament teams coming up. A win over either should get them in. But if they lose both, they will have two total wins on their resume against tournament teams... Wisconsin and Dayton (AQ). If you consider that you basically need to be a top 40 team to secure an at large, their RPI and BPI and SOS all being outside that cutoff is certainly scary for them.

 

[irishfan]

ND #19 in the AP

The AP Top 25 Poll | NCAA Men's Basketball

 

[zelezo vlk]

It seriously is crazy, because since then:
-They're 1-3, with the only win coming over lowly sub-.500 Rutgers.
-Two of those losses are to teams projected on the outside of the tournament bubble.
-Wisconsin has continued losing and is now only a projected 6 seed... barely a top 25 win.

So they play two tournament teams coming up. A win over either should get them in. But if they lose both, they will have two total wins on their resume against tournament teams... Wisconsin and Dayton (AQ). If you consider that you basically need to be a top 40 team to secure an at large, their RPI and BPI and SOS all being outside that cutoff is certainly scary for them.

Didn't they lose their best player recently?

 

[Ndaccountant]

At least we control our own destiny on the double bye - but GREAT point made on value of #3 vs #4. Waiting until the finals for UNC would be great.

Very unusual game - SV missing the front end of that 1-1 at the end was very uncharacteristic! I want Steve to get back into baby face assassin mode before the season is through and really hope that miss lights the fire back up.

Way too reliant on 3s - I think Brey saw that and part of why he was so animated.

Bonzi is ACC POY - not even close, IMO (unbiased of course). 6-5 leading ACC in rebounding - double-doubles everywhere - just a remarkable accomplishment in a league stacked full of really good bigs. Screw ESPN and their marketing campaign to pump up the Duke/UNC matchup by making Kenard and Jackson out as de facto POY front runners. Hate how these things turn into - "best player on most popular team" trophies.

Can't wait for us to have a better record than Duke while they get a 3 seed and we get a 6 (or some crap like that). After two Elite Eight runs it would be nice to see the good guys get a seed bump and favorable matchups for a change.

1) - Brey was much more animated last night than I have seen in awhile. At one point in the 1st half during a TV timeout, he was ripping MF a new one. MF played better in the 2nd half and made some FT's, but overall he had a pretty crappy game, especially on defense.

2) - Agree 100% on Bonzi. This is probably the 3rd or 4th game this year that he stepped up his play and was the difference between a W and a L.

3) - SV has been dreadful scoring the ball. He has been good passing, leading the team in assists last night. He also hasn't let it impact his defensive game, which is good. I think he figures it out and has a VJ type run this March. Last night, advanced stats say he was actively involved (as shooter or driver) in less than 20% of the possessions he was on the floor. To put that in comparison, that was about the same as Gibbs. I think he needs to be a bit more aggressive and fix his funk through the FT line.

4) - While I agree Duke gets favorable treatment, I am not sure us finishing ahead of them in ACC play warrants us a better seed in of itself. ND's best non-conference win is NW, who appears to be, at best, a double digit seed. Meanwhile, Duke's best win is Florida and also has wins against Rhode Island (who owns a resume similar to NW) and an underachieving Michigan State. In conference, they have wins versus UNC, UVA, ND and split their series against Miami. The big difference for me is that Duke hasn't played all that well on the road in conference and has that bad NCSU loss while Coach K was out. In summary, I think they have better wins than ND at this point and even if they split their games this week, still probably deserves to be ahead of ND on the s-curve.

 

[RDU Irish]

Duke has lost to Va Tech by 14, FSU by 16, Louisville by 9, NCST by 2 (at home) and now back to back losses to Cuse by 3 and Miami by 5.

Also lost to Kansas by 2 early in the season.


We lost to Nova by 8 and Purdue by 5 early - crap stretch of FSU by 3, UVA by 17, GT by 2, Duke by 10 and UNC by 7 and have since gotten our groove back baby.

We have one loss to an unranked team - they have FOUR (many by large margins versus our pissing away OT in 2 seconds vs GT). Assuming we finish with the same number of losses (say one more regular season loss to a ranked team and ACC tourney loss to a probably ranked team) - I just can't produce the calculus to merit them getting a higher seed than us.

I also can imagine a world in which Duke finishes with five straight losses to finish 22-10 and we win the next five to be ACC champs at 27-7, yet they still get a higher seed because - you know - Coach K had a hang nail or something to excuse the pile of NBA players getting their ass kicked on the court.

 

[ACamp1900]

Duke has lost to Va Tech by 14, FSU by 16, Louisville by 9, NCST by 2 (at home) and now back to back losses to Cuse by 3 and Miami by 5.

Also lost to Kansas by 2 early in the season.


We lost to Nova by 8 and Purdue by 5 early - crap stretch of FSU by 3, UVA by 17, GT by 2, Duke by 10 and UNC by 7 and have since gotten our groove back baby.

We have one loss to an unranked team - they have FOUR. Assuming we finish with the same number of losses (say one more regular season loss to a ranked team and ACC tourney loss to a probably ranked team) - I just can't produce the calculus to merit them getting a higher seed than us.

I mean, I wouldn't even care if we get say a five and they get like a four... it'd be wrong but whatever... but if ND gets a 6 and they are a 3... I just can't....

 

[BabyIrish]

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

5 seed here....great bracket if we could sub in Nova or Gonzaga for UNC as the 1 seed.

I hope we stay very far from UT Arlington, they are a dangerous team. They would have made the tourney last year but lost there best player to a season ending injury.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Duke has lost to Va Tech by 14, FSU by 16, Louisville by 9, NCST by 2 (at home) and now back to back losses to Cuse by 3 and Miami by 5.

Also lost to Kansas by 2 early in the season.


We lost to Nova by 8 and Purdue by 5 early - crap stretch of FSU by 3, UVA by 17, GT by 2, Duke by 10 and UNC by 7 and have since gotten our groove back baby.

We have one loss to an unranked team - they have FOUR. Assuming we finish with the same number of losses (say one more regular season loss to a ranked team and ACC tourney loss to a probably ranked team) - I just can't produce the calculus to merit them getting a higher seed than us.

Simple....their SOS is better. Kenpom has them 8 spots ahead of ND for the year. In conference, Duke is #5 in the country (with games against FSU/UNC left) and ND (BC/UL) is 19.

I am not saying there is a 3 seed gap in resume, but I think 1 seed higher is justified considering they have better wins than ND at this point.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/in-conference-sos-by-other

 

[irishfan]

2/20 update

We are a 6 seed on Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

RPI: #24, SOS: #31
Kenpom: #26, SOS: #23
Sagarin: #23, SOS: #20
BPI: #21, SOS: #14

2/27 update

We are a 5 seed on Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

RPI: #21, SOS: #40
Kenpom: #25, SOS: #30
Sagarin: #25, SOS: #28
BPI: #21, SOS: #19

 

[IrishLax]

2/27 update

We are a 5 seed on Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

RPI: #21, SOS: #40
Kenpom: #25, SOS: #30
Sagarin: #25, SOS: #28
BPI: #21, SOS: #19

So if one takes this as gospel, Northwestern is about 9 spots from the cut line.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

So if UNC loses to duke on Saturday and we beat BC and Losuiville then we will share the regular season ACC title.

 

[Woneone]

Well, we still have a shot at a piece of the regular season title (although, does the ACC even recognize that?).

Would take two wins, and a Duke win in Chapel Hill. I can't imagine myself rooting for Duke, ever, but it may happen.

 

[Woneone]

Although, to be real, we really want VT to win tonight, and then beat Wake. I THINK that would make them the 5 seed (if UNC beats Duke).

I'd love to play VT as the 4 seed in the ACC Tournament.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Although, to be real, we really want VT to win tonight, and then beat Wake. I THINK that would make them the 5 seed (if UNC beats Duke).

I'd love to play VT as the 4 seed in the ACC Tournament.

I agree but we can still get the 3 seed too or 2 seed even so a lot of things can happen this week. If FL ST loses to duke and Miami and we win out we will get the 2 seed

So many scenarios its ridiculous and extremly hard to keep track of

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Well, we still have a shot at a piece of the regular season title (although, does the ACC even recognize that?).

Would take two wins, and a Duke win in Chapel Hill. I can't imagine myself rooting for Duke, ever, but it may happen.

And no the ACC does not recognize regular season winner as a champion. Which if you think about it its really dumb casue any team could get hot for 3-4 games and win the title like we did in 2015. Even tho that team was amazing so it wasnt a surprise

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Although, to be real, we really want VT to win tonight, and then beat Wake. I THINK that would make them the 5 seed (if UNC beats Duke).

I'd love to play VT as the 4 seed in the ACC Tournament.

I agree playing VT would be awesome but I dont think that would help us at all for the tourney if we beat them and only them in the ACC tournament

 

[texbender]

I hope we stay very far from UT Arlington, they are a dangerous team. They would have made the tourney last year but lost there best player to a season ending injury.

Agree. I know the family of their star...Kevin Hervey. Can rebound, play D, and score. NBA scouts are all over him.

 

[BabyIrish]

Agree. I know the family of their star...Kevin Hervey. Can rebound, play D, and score. NBA scouts are all over him.

Him and Neal together are lethal

 

[Irish#1]

Simple....their SOS is better. Kenpom has them 8 spots ahead of ND for the year. In conference, Duke is #5 in the country (with games against FSU/UNC left) and ND (BC/UL) is 19.

I am not saying there is a 3 seed gap in resume, but I think 1 seed higher is justified considering they have better wins than ND at this point.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/in-conference-sos-by-other

About three years ago, Derek Schultz (local sports talk radio) sat in on a mock NCAA Tournament seeding at the invitation of the NCAA. He got to watch the actual committee go through a mock seeding a few weeks before the real one. Apparently they do a run through before the actual process. According to what he learned, two factors that carry the most weight are wins against quality opponents and bad losses. Bad losses are losses to teams you have no business losing to. Losing to a .500 team in conference doesn't hurt as much as many think. Losing to a team with 10 or fewer wins will kill your seeding.

 

[Ndaccountant]

About three years ago, Derek Schultz (local sports talk radio) sat in on a mock NCAA Tournament seeding at the invitation of the NCAA. He got to watch the actual committee go through a mock seeding a few weeks before the real one. Apparently they do a run through before the actual process. According to what he learned, two factors that carry the most weight are wins against quality opponents and bad losses. Bad losses are losses to teams you have no business losing to. Losing to a .500 team in conference doesn't hurt as much as many think. Losing to a team with 10 or fewer wins will kill your seeding.

Agree.

So look at this objectively....Team A is 4-3 against the RPI top 25 and 9-5 against the top 50. Against the top 100 is 13-6 and has one loss outside the top 100....to the 104 team. Overall SOS is 26th and non-conf SOS is 91 (according to ESPN).

Team B is 2-6 against the top 25, 6-6 against the top 50 and 11-7 against the top 100. Worst loss is to the 93rd rank team. Overall SOS is 40th and non-conf SOS is 180th (according to ESPN).

To me, it isn't close. Team A has won more games against the top 25, top 50 and top 100 and the worst loss is only 11 spots below Team B's worst loss. Add to it they challenged themselves more in the non-conference.

To me, Team A wins the resume comparison and there isn't much of a discussion. Team A is Duke and Team B is ND.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

About three years ago, Derek Schultz (local sports talk radio) sat in on a mock NCAA Tournament seeding at the invitation of the NCAA. He got to watch the actual committee go through a mock seeding a few weeks before the real one. Apparently they do a run through before the actual process. According to what he learned, two factors that carry the most weight are wins against quality opponents and bad losses. Bad losses are losses to teams you have no business losing to. Losing to a .500 team in conference doesn't hurt as much as many think. Losing to a team with 10 or fewer wins will kill your seeding.

That's interesting info. Thanks for that. And we have no bad losses at all. Even the GT loss is a good loss. Pretty amazing to think about

 

[Ndaccountant]

There are a bunch of team hovering around that 3/4/5 line and if I am a potential number one seed (Kansas, Zags, Nova, Oregon, maybe UL or Kentucky), there are a few teams that I want to no part of.

UVA, WVU, Butler, Duke and ND are teams I want to see as a 3 or 6 seed. I would be especially anxious with UVA or Duke. Watching UVA thoroughly dismantle arguably the 1st or 2nd most talented team in the country was impressive. If they play D like that, nobody can beat them.

 

[RDU Irish]

There are a bunch of team hovering around that 3/4/5 line and if I am a potential number one seed (Kansas, Zags, Nova, Oregon, maybe UL or Kentucky), there are a few teams that I want to no part of.

UVA, WVU, Butler, Duke and ND are teams I want to see as a 3 or 6 seed. I would be especially anxious with UVA or Duke. Watching UVA thoroughly dismantle arguably the 1st or 2nd most talented team in the country was impressive. If they play D like that, nobody can beat them.

Holding UNC to 43 points is just this side of ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as that stupid man-bun on that VA kid. I'll be picking UVA to go deep in the tourney - that disciplined defense will eat up a lot of teams - reminds me of those Wisconsin Badger teams that always found their way deep into the tourney.

What would Gonzaga or Kansas do in the ACC if they had to run this gauntlet?

 

[ACamp1900]

Ha, it's crazy how good the ACC is... it's really amazing ND has held up as well as it has. It's hard to hold it against Kansas because it's still a great run in a power conference but yeah, it's kind of night and day out there compared to the ACC.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Holding UNC to 43 points is just this side of ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as that stupid man-bun on that VA kid. I'll be picking UVA to go deep in the tourney - that disciplined defense will eat up a lot of teams - reminds me of those Wisconsin Badger teams that always found their way deep into the tourney.

What would Gonzaga or Kansas do in the ACC if they had to run this gauntlet?

I think it is a great question that is really hard to answer. I think Kansas would be pretty close to UNC. Gonzaga is tough. I would expect them to fall somewhere between Miami/VT and ND.

 

[ACamp1900]

I think it is a great question that is really hard to answer. I think Kansas would be pretty close to UNC. Gonzaga is tough. I would expect them to fall somewhere between Miami/VT and ND.

You talking this year... or generally speaking? Are you saying this year's top ranked team for much of the season < Notre Dame, and it's all just conference?

 

[Ndaccountant]

You talking this year... or generally speaking? Are you saying this year's top ranked team for much of the season < Notre Dame, and it's all just conference?

In general. But as far as this year goes, I find it very hard to believe that Gonzaga would have 5 losses or Fewer.

 

[Irish#1]

There are a bunch of team hovering around that 3/4/5 line and if I am a potential number one seed (Kansas, Zags, Nova, Oregon, maybe UL or Kentucky), there are a few teams that I want to no part of.

UVA, WVU, Butler, Duke and ND are teams I want to see as a 3 or 6 seed. I would be especially anxious with UVA or Duke. Watching UVA thoroughly dismantle arguably the 1st or 2nd most talented team in the country was impressive. If they play D like that, nobody can beat them.

Butler is going to be a nightmare for anyone. I catch a lot of their games and they are really starting to peak at the right time. They beat Xavier on the road the other day. Tight game, about 15 lead changes and half a dozen ties. Xavier was hitting some crazy shots and finally takes the lead with about five minutes to go. Butler cranked up the D, had three steals that led to fast break buckets, grabbed all the rebounds then hit their FT's. Holtman has this team playing like the Brad Stevens teams. Keep an eye on Kamar Baldwin, Freshman G. Kid is crazy good and plays like a senior.

UVA will be very tough if they can maintain the defensive intensity, but they've been up and down lately.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

I agree with everyone but I think ND can be pretty lethal in the tourney too. We shoot great at the FT(#1 in country) which is extremely important during tourney time. We can hit the 3 at anytime. Every guy on the floor most of the time can step out and hit a 3. And last but not least experience and we have a ton of it. 4 of the starters have been to 2 elite eights and 1 of them(pflueger) got us to the elite eight last year. Our team can be very lethal. If we can just rebound like we did against Louisville and FL ST then we can pretty much beat anyone. I say FL st and losuiville cause those are the beat teams we have beaten and we put rebounded both of them when we shouldnt have with all the length they got.