2014 Win Prediction Thread lol

[irishtrooper]

Out dont know about this. If rankings are suppose to be telling you who are the best teams on a specific day, then why does a loss that happened months ago mean the same amount as a loss last week? Teams grow and crumble throughout the season. I want the rankings to tell me who the best teams are, not just a W/L column paired with SoS number.

Yes, but the preseason rankings screw all of this up. Take for example Auburn this year and us last year. Teams unranked or ranked at the bottom of the top 25 because maybe a few "impact players" graduated and a schedule is deemed too tough (again based on very incomplete information). It was and will be a lot more difficult to climb from way back there to the top. They really should not rank teams until at least 2-3 weeks into the season. I realize this will never happen as the rankings generate interest in publications or clicks, but it is simply not a good way to truly gauge the team on the current season. Too many things poison the well. These are the same crazy issues that pop up when we beat a team ranked say 5-6 spots ahead of us and we end up ranked just behind them even with the same record. I realize who you lose to matters, but I recall Az St. and us were in a similar spot just this year and our losses weren't bad at the time Ok and Mich (remember I said at that time). There probably isn't a realistic way to remedy this that the establishment will accept, but that doesn't mean I agree with the way its done.

 

[irishtrooper]

Rice - W (90%)
scUM - L (50% - Really this comes down to how VanGorder does against the spread because Gardner looked godly against us this year; I'm confident they won't stop our offense)
Purdue - W (90%)
Syracuse - W (80%)
Stanford - L (50% - Should be a very close game)
UNC - W (80%)
FSU - L (25% - If VanGorder proves to be inept vs. the spread, Winston will torch us and their D is loaded with enough talent to stop our offense)
Navy - W (90%)
ASU - W (60%)
NW - L (ND's annual WTF game)
Louisville - W (80% - shouldn't be close with Bridgewater gone)
USC - W (65% - let's see how Sark does with all that talent)

So 8-10 wins - not too bad with this schedule and it should get our defense enough valuable experience to make a serious run for a championship WIN in Golson's senior year.

If we lose to Mich I will want to murder someone. Just sayin.............

 

[returnofthemack]

If we lose to Mich I will want to murder someone. Just sayin.............

I loathe michigan - I hate everything about them. Unfortunately, I've accepted that even though we are the better team, we just find ways to lose against them and their bumbling, buffoonish, Fred Flintstone-looking baboon's ass they call a coach.

 

[irishtrooper]

I loathe michigan - I hate everything about them. Unfortunately, I've accepted that even though we are the better team, we just find ways to lose against them and their bumbling, buffoonish, Fred Flintstone-looking baboon's ass they call a coach.

Just got a transfer where I work that is a Mich fan and he is insufferable. Thinks the fat guy is a great coach and Lewan is the next Orlando Pace. I hate that we beat ourselves against them because he really thinks we got out of our "historic rivalry" because we are scared. My blood boils even thinking about that game.

 

[NDPhilly]

I'm insane for expecting more than 8 wins a year? Kelly will have all his guys starting besides Lombard, maybe Moore, and maybe Collinsworth. I'm wrong for expecting atleast 9 wins a year from here on out?

 

[wizards8507]

If we lose to Mich I will want to murder someone. Just sayin.............

 

[phork]

I'm insane for expecting more than 8 wins a year? Kelly will have all his guys starting besides Lombard, maybe Moore, and maybe Collinsworth. I'm wrong for expecting atleast 9 wins a year from here on out?

You are wrong for calling for a hot seat, not believing ND should be a 9+ game winner. Kelly is averaging 9.25 wins a year right now.

 

[wizards8507]

You are wrong for calling for a hot seat, not believing ND should be a 9+ game winner. Kelly is averaging 9.25 wins a year right now.

Averages only count for so much (see: not at all). 8 wins in your first year is much different than 8 wins in your fifth. If we win 8 next year, it means 2012 was a fluke, not a trend.

 

[wizards8507]

It's crazy how a little success has made us so shortsighted. I guess some of you forgot what it was like to change crappy coaches every three seasons. Sheesh...

Doing better than the worst you've ever been is a pretty low standard.

 

[NDPhilly]

You are wrong for calling for a hot seat, not believing ND should be a 9+ game winner. Kelly is averaging 9.25 wins a year right now.

Ok Hot seat was the wrong word but his seat will be getting warm for me atleast. Another 8-4 or 7-5 season would be awful for this program And people (myself included) would begin to believe that the 12-1 season was just a anomaly in a run of 8 win seasons.

 

[woolybug25]

Averages only count for so much (see: not at all). 8 wins in your first year is much different than 8 wins in your fifth. If we win 8 next year, it means 2012 was a fluke, not a trend.

So if a coach wins 8 games against a difficult schedule, regardless of circumstances, that coach should be on the hot seat?

Sorry, I'll give the coach that averages over 9 wins a season and already taken us to a title game the benefit of the doubt. If we put our coach on notice the first time he doesn't overachieve, then I wouldn't blame him for jumping ship for the NFL and no big time coach wanting to waste his time coaching here.

Ungrateful bastards...

 

[NDPhilly]

Chizik averaged 8.25 wins a year at Auburn. Does that tell the whole story of his tenure?

 

[wizards8507]

So if a coach wins 8 games against a difficult schedule, regardless of circumstances, that coach should be on the hot seat?

Sorry, I'll give the coach that averages over 9 wins a season and already taken us to a title game the benefit of the doubt. If we put our coach on notice the first time he doesn't overachieve, then I wouldn't blame him for jumping ship for the NFL and no big time coach wanting to waste his time coaching here.

Ungrateful bastards...

9 wins isn't overachieving. 9 wins is par for the course (or should be).

Notre Dame is number one… in all-time winning percentage | CollegeFootballTalk

Statistically, that's an average of 9.5-3.5. I think we should have the expectation of getting "used to" 9-4 or 10-3.

 

[woolybug25]

Chizik averaged 8.25 wins a year at Auburn. Does that tell the whole story of his tenure?

That's almost a game less in average with one less season. I also don't remember BK having any 3 win seasons.

We would be considering firing a guy that averaged 9 wins a season for over 20 years because of one slightly off season. Chizik was a .500 coach over his career with on outlier season. Completely different scenarios.

 

[woolybug25]

9 wins isn't overachieving. 9 wins is par for the course (or should be).

Notre Dame is number one… in all-time winning percentage | CollegeFootballTalk

Statistically, that's an average of 9.5-3.5. I think we should have the expectation of getting "used to" 9-4 or 10-3.

If it's our historical average, then yes. Are you saying that any coach that doesn't win at a better clip than the historical best winning percentage should be fired?

 

[Irish Insanity]

9 wins isn't overachieving. 9 wins is par for the course (or should be).

Notre Dame is number one… in all-time winning percentage | CollegeFootballTalk

Statistically, that's an average of 9.5-3.5. I think we should have the expectation of getting "used to" 9-4 or 10-3.

I stated at one point not to long ago that I expect a BCS game (to me 10 wins) yearly and was slaughtered by a few for it. Something about needing to alter my expectations yearly as circumstances change or I was being unreal.

 

[woolybug25]

I stated at one point not to long ago that I expect a BCS game (to me 10 wins) yearly and was slaughtered by a few for it. Something about needing to alter my expectations yearly as circumstances change or I was being unreal.

I'll say the same thing that I said to you then. Prepare yourself for disapoinymemt then. There are zero teams that have averaged 10 wins a season over their history and none that have averaged that in your lifetime. So if you aren't happy unless we average 10 wins, life is going to tough for you.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'll say the same thing that I said to you then. Prepare yourself for disapoinymemt then. There are zero teams that have averaged 10 wins a season over their history and none that have averaged that in your lifetime. So if you aren't happy unless we average 10 wins, life is going to tough for you.

Your argument wasn't the one I found absurd. It was the other few that basically demanded I was unreasonable for expecting such. I understand the argument of changing circumstances and even that no team averages 10 wins over their llifetime, but I see no reason to expect less. I would rather expect 10 and be disappointed (or understanding depending upon the circumstances) with 8 or 9 than enter each season only expecting mediocrity (8).

 

[wizards8507]

I'll say the same thing that I said to you then. Prepare yourself for disapoinymemt then. There are zero teams that have averaged 10 wins a season over their history and none that have averaged that in your lifetime. So if you aren't happy unless we average 10 wins, life is going to tough for you.

Did someone say 10 wins? I think someone said 8 would be a disappointment, which would be an expectation of 9. 9 wins isn't unrealistic, especially if you include the bowl game. Hell, THIS team got 9 wins.

 

[woolybug25]

Did someone say 10 wins? I think someone said 8 would be a disappointment, which would be an expectation of 9. 9 wins isn't unrealistic, especially if you include the bowl game. Hell, THIS team got 9 wins.

Uhh... Insanity just did. What are you talking about?

 

[wizards8507]

Uhh... Insanity just did. What are you talking about?

I was talking about NDPhilly's post.

Anything less than 9-3 will be a HUGE Dissappontment in Kelly's 5th year. Shit I'd be pretty disappointed with 9-3 personally. He goes 8-4 again in 2014 he definitely should be on the Hot Seat in 2015

 

[woolybug25]

I was talking about NDPhilly's post.

You are the one that asked "who is saying 10 wins", not me. Keep up.

I addressed Philly's comments separately.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

Chizik averaged 8.25 wins a year at Auburn. Does that tell the whole story of his tenure?

Gene Chizik went 14-0 then 8-5...which is similiar to Kelly. If you look at most programs after a National Title they have a down year. Bama is the exception. Most teams are not getting the quality and development top to bottom in their program to have that type of success, much less the luck factor that you take into account in getting to a title game.

Chizik then went 3-9 in his second year after the title. Soooo he was put on the hot seat, add in some shadyness....you have a coach that was fired. If Brian Kelly, goes 3-9 next year, he should be on the hot seat. ND isnt going 3-9.

Chizik is also 38-38 as a head coach. Less than a stellar track record.

Kelly is 208-72 as a head coach.

Please refrain from trying to use Chizik as someone you compare Kelly to in a discussion. You look foolish.

 

[gkIrish]

Realistic ceiling is 11-1. Realistic floor is 8-4.

I think 9-3 with losses to Stanford, FSU, and ASU.

 

[phork]

I am happy with 8-4 and being competitive in games It means that in special years we hit 11-1 or 12-0. I expect no less than 9 wins next year, but I would hardly say hot seat at 8 wins.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Realistic ceiling is 11-1. Realistic floor is 8-4.

I think 9-3 with losses to Stanford, FSU, and ASU.

Are they expected to be better next year. We are, and we only lost by 7 and on the other won by 3?

 

[gkIrish]

Are they expected to be better next year. We are, and we only lost by 7 and on the other won by 3?

I don't know that Stanford will be better but I don't have a great feeling about that game. ASU will probably be just as good and I hate the way we match up with them. We played arguably our best game against them this year and they played one of their worst. Plus it will be an away game in 2014.

 

[bobbyok1]

13-1 national champs. Lose to FSU in a close one. Make top four based on SOS and only one or no undefeated teams. Defense peaks in December/January after a shaky start to season. Offense off the charts for ND

 

[stlnd01]

10-2. We lose to FSU and USC. We have enough offense for a change to overcome defensive growing pains against Michigan and Arizona State. Stanford slips a notch. The new coach gets USC, by season's end, to play up to their potential.
We miss the playoff but land in whatever the 2014 equivalent of a BCS bowl is.

 

[GBdomer]

9-3

Lose to FSU by 70.

2015 we should be really,really good

btw pass the freaking kool aid.