I see where you are going, but Vegas does not reflect the public perception, at least not after true cappers start laying their bets one way or another.
Right now Bama is favored by 10 or 10.5. Once the sharps start laying they will push the line whichever way they want to.
What? Can you try to explain what you're getting at in more detail?
Trust me when I say this, I am no stranger to Vegas, lines, etc. and how it all works. And I even have a couple friends who do this kind of thing professionally (online... they take advantage of the inefficiency in moneylines between different online books using computer programs... moved to South America in order to do it legally). I don't understand what you're trying to say though.
Are you saying that a huge amount of "shark money" came in on the OVER 7 wins while the "public money" all came in on the UNDER? This kind of thing happens, but it's not common. Especially with pre-season betting because you have to front the money and then wait 3+ months to collect on it. Typically pre-season props are not heavily bet by the syndicates because it's a waste of their capital... much less bet so heavily it's going to affect a line by a win or two. Is your premise that public perception would've put the line at 5 wins or less but the "shark money" kept it high?
Do you have any evidence of that?
