ACamp1900
Counting my ‘bet against ND’ winnings
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'14 OH QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame Signee)
- Thread starter STLDomer
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Wouldn't think so but way too early to predict. Quite certain he won't have a 1st round grade on him from teams but that doesn't mean he won't get drafted in 1st round. Keep in mind last year at this time no one had Carson Wentz even sniffing the 1st round much less being overall #2. On the flipside Teddy Bridgewater at this time of year was being projected as #1 pick in draft and Minnesota ended up trading up from round 2 to take him as last pick in round 1.
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koonja
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He was actually awesome vs. Texas. Pretty average the rest of the year though.
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You're entitled to your opinion too. He's all over the place with the "experts". Phil Steele has him as the #9 WR. Completely depends on combine and interviews. He's from Chicagoland so as a Bears fan, I hope he's the best available when they pick at #35ish.
They will get a stud with that pick regardless. This draft is loaded with quality WR's
I've never considered Steele a draft expert. Mike Williams, John Ross and Corey Davis are top three. It can be easily argued that Davis is the most pro ready. Actually combine and interviews only make up about 10% of a kids grade. The rest is all tape.
zelezo vlk
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Depends on his combine. WR and CB are stopwatch positions.
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Somewhat true. Moreso for CB's although Joe Haden ran poor times at combine and was still top ten pick. Tape was too good. GM's and coaches know the difference between track speed and football speed. Because of Corey Davis size and route running ability his time is less important. More important for smaller guys like Ross. Small and slower than expected can drop you out of first round.
Sherm Sticky
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To me it's Mike Williams and then Juju Smith. Smith draft stock took a hit this year. But he played through most of the year injured. I'm interested to see Smith's 40 time. If he runs 4.45 I think he goes in the first.
I believe Smith is a better player than Woods, Lee and Agholor.
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#1rish
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I'd be very surprised if he didn't. After the 2015 season he should have accelerated his classes to graduate early.
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More opinions.
JuJu, Dupree, Westbrook and SMU's Courtland Sutton are all in various Top 3's. I pulled mocks from a composite list that tracks the top mock drafters. And forget Steele, I just used him as an example. Obviously, I don't agree with Steele about Davis being #9 if I think it's possible he could be there at #34-#36.
Lastly, if you don't think the combine / interviews can make the difference between Corey Davis going from the #2 WR to the #4 WR or JuJu going from #3 to #1 then, well ok but I'd remind you to go back and look at the Pro Bowlers Darius Heyward Bay and Tavon Austin leap-frogged at the combine. It 100% happens.
N
ND Fan Vancouver
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Let's say Kizer's stays...What do you guys think would happen regarding QB competition regarding spring reps etc. Who would start week one and how the season would shake out regarding the QB position. I personally think there would be a 50/50 rep share in the Spring. I bet Wimbush would slightly outperform Kizer in the blue and gold game but Kizer would get the nod as starter and fans would outrage. I think Kizer would then go on to have a better year than 2016 but not as good as 2015 and Wimbush would only see garbage time. I don't think Wimbush would transfer though as he would be sure to be the starter in 2018. All this being said, I hope Kizer leaves so we can see what we have with the this Wimbush kid. I'm really excited to see him.
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Happens most every year. Some guy comes to the combine and performs better than scouts have him ranked, then boom. They climb up the board and get drafted earlier than projected.
Blaise
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You are aware he threw for more yards, TDS and less INT in 2016 than he did in 2015 right? The only thing that really took a hit was comp percentage but only that was off by 6%.. His two years were very similar and really only difference was the win loss record.
I stay away from mock drafts and rely on respected scouts like Daniel Jeremiah and a few others. As to Tavon Austin he was always going to go high. That was even before the combine. DHB was drafted by Al Davis. Enough said. If Davis went from #2 WR to #4 in your scenario he'd still be a first rounder. Dupree, Westbrook and Sutton aren't in same league as Davis.
Irish Insanity
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This
And he needs to go. The risk with returning just isn't worth it for him. He may not even start.
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koonja
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Don't be ridiculous. BK doesn't play the better player if any upperclassmen with experience is available.
N
ND Fan Vancouver
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I'm aware of this but sometimes there's more to the story than stats. He missed way to many wide open throws ESPECIALLY when it really counted. I also felt like he threw far more ugly INT's in 2016 than 2015 and his decision making was worse somehow.
Hammer Of The Gods
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Whats crazy is that Kelly has only had one QB drafted in his entire coaching career. So, not really sure I trust his judgment or his ability to coach or call plays in regards to the QB position.
ulukinatme
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Well, for one he spent a number of years at GVS. Not likely going to get NFL players there.
He only spent a few years at each Central Michigan and Cincinnati, although Pike was the one that got drafted.
As far as ND, look at what he's had to work with in his time here. Crist had bad knees and lost his mojo (I think he did spent some time in Preseason with the Ravens, don't recall). Tommy had to play for us all 4 years at ND in some capacity because of the way QB depth/development worked out. He got to try out with the Redskins, but there was no way that was ever going to really happen, he just didn't have the tools. After Tommy we've had Golson who was never going to make it to the NFL given his height and size. Kizer has really been the first NFL capable QB Kelly has had at ND aside from Crist that hasn't completely collapsed upon himself or blown his knees out.
So yeah, that's a lot there. He's no Jimbo Fisher, but look at what Jimbo has had to work with, and his proteges haven't exactly lit the NFL world on fire. I don't necessarily think Kizer is ready for the NFL, but I don't honestly think he would get all that much out of another year in college either. I think he matured quickly, and his ceiling wasn't nearly as high as some people thought it was. Not every quarterback gradually gets better in college, some peak early. I'd rather see Kizer move on at this point and see a new leader under/behind center.
N
ND Fan Vancouver
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Great post. Very similar to my thoughts. I feel that athletically and physically Kizer has reached his ceiling and that's a pretty good ceiling. He also has fairly good poise and smarts. I do think he has room to develop in his reads and decision making and its possible that that will improve. If it does improve next year, I hope it'll be from the bench on an NFL team next year.
GO WIMBUSH!!
Irish Insanity
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I'm not on the BK ruins QB side. But, I don't think he exactly makes them better or builds them up. I don't think him staying another year will help him grow from where he's at.
Domina Nostra
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EDITED FOR KIEL
The problem has been QB recruiting, IMO. That's Kelly's fault, but not the same as wasting QBs.
Crist - completely overrated; good get by Weis on paper, but mis-evaluated as potential star. He needed to be eased into a RB heavy system. Should have gone to Stanford or Harvard or somewhere like that. Recruiting grade: C.
2010 - Recruiting grade: C (but give him a pass, Weis' fault)
Rees - not much to work with at all; easy get, low ceiling, but tough as nails.
Hendrix- completely overrated ; decent effort to keep him, not sure Kelly was ever enamored with him. Recruiting grade: C.
Massa - Let's assume he was recruited to lure his friend and to hedge against Rees and Hendrix being bad. Recruiting grade: C.
2011 - Recruiting grade: B+
Golson - ton of talent, head case, Kelly swung and missed on Bubba Starling and others. Kelly did pretty well aldngin him later in the season, but probably misjudged how hard he would be to coach (ask Jimbo).
2012 - Recruiting grade: A-
Kiel - ton of talent, no chest (kidding). While neither side seemed enamored with the other, Kelly did well hanging around and landing him later in the season, but probably misjudged how his intention to sit more than a year. Recruiting grade: A-.
2013 - Recruiting grade: B
Zaire- He clearly has the Tim Tebow as pro issue. This was not a great get by Kelly since Kelly LOVES to throw and he is not a great passer. Zaire should have gone to Tech.
2014 - Recruiting grade: B+
Kizer- First great recruit, but he fell into Kelly's lap, was not his first, second, or third choice. Would he even have played but for Golson transferring and Zaire getting injured? I think, NO.
2015 - Recruiting grade: A.
Wimbush- first really good QB recurit that was targeted and acquired after our first choices fell through.
2016 - Recruiting grade: C.
Book- Granted it's hard to land a QB when the roster starts to get crowded, but this kid is not a top prospect.
2017 - Recruiting grade: B-
Davis- too small, and too erratic a passer to be in Kelly's system. This is another space filler hoping for the best.
2018 - Recruiting grade: A
Jurovek - if he comes, this will be only the second excellent QB recruit that Kelly identified and landed. Recruiting grade: A (A+ if he was not a semi-legacy).
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stlnd01
Was away. Now returned.
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Oh come on about the recruiting. Crist, Rees and Hendrix were all essentially pre-Kelly recruits, so not really on him. I agree Crist never lived up to billing but I'd go back to his knee injuries on that. Rees did the best he could. Hendrix? Meh.
Zaire and Golson were both very good recruits for the offense BK wants to run. good enough that Gunner Kiel (who you forgot to mention but was the #1 QB recruit in his class) didn't feel like he could win the job. Then Kizer was, IMO, kind of a gift - and probably the best development job we've had.. There was a sentiment around here going into 2015, after we landed Wimbush and when MZ looked like the guy, that Kizer might never see the field.
And now Wimbush and the rest. Point being, since Golson, Kelly has landed a top tier QB who fits his offense every cycle, except maybe last year when he could sell a top kid on on waiting on Wimbush.
We've had some issues at QB, but recruiting isn't really one of them.
Zaire and Golson were both very good recruits for the offense BK wants to run. good enough that Gunner Kiel (who you forgot to mention but was the #1 QB recruit in his class) didn't feel like he could win the job. Then Kizer was, IMO, kind of a gift - and probably the best development job we've had.. There was a sentiment around here going into 2015, after we landed Wimbush and when MZ looked like the guy, that Kizer might never see the field.
And now Wimbush and the rest. Point being, since Golson, Kelly has landed a top tier QB who fits his offense every cycle, except maybe last year when he could sell a top kid on on waiting on Wimbush.
We've had some issues at QB, but recruiting isn't really one of them.
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ulukinatme
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From a recruiting standpoint I think you're underestimating Zaire's potential coming out of high school. He was pretty highly thought of as a dual threat QB in his class. He was considered higher than Golson. I'd switch their grades. Zaire actually had a higher composite than Kizer too, but honestly I've always seen Kizer as more of a passing/pro QB myself. The plays he makes with his legs are more of a function of defenses respecting his arm and less to do with him being shifty or lightning fast.
In any case, you're pretty spot on on these grades above.
Domina Nostra
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I drew it all out above because it's a complicated history, but in my opinion, 2016 was the first year he had a legit depth chart. I don't think playing true freshman that don't earn the #1 spot to be a good option:
2010: No decent QB options (bad Crist, freshman Rees and Hendrix)
2011: No good QB options (bad Crist, mediocre Rees, and true freshman Golson)
2012: One good option (RS freshman Golson), we get to a NC
2013: No good QB options (Mediocre Rees, bad Hendrix, true freshman Kiel)
2014: One decent QB option (Golson post-suspension)
2015: One decent QB option (RS freshman Kizer, no meaningful snaps in spring, and true freshman Wimbush)
2016: Great situation overall
I don't blame Kelly for 2010, but it was not a good situation.
I don't blame Kelly for the fact that Golson was a head case, but between the lack of talent in front of him and his antics, it through off 3 years.
I don't blame Kelly for playing Rees over Kiel, or signing Kiel, but we recruiting a flighty 5-star QB who had already moved on from 2 schools before taking a snap, so was he a great recruit?
I disagree that Zaire is a great fit. He is not a great passer (despite his massive arm), and Kelly loves to throw and throw and throw.
Kizer fell into Kelly's lap, was not going to play, but was a great get. Wimbush followed.
So they are the first two that panned out once they were here. And next year we are back to two question mark recruiting years.
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