'11 GA S Avery Sebastian (Notre Dame Transferee)

[woolybug25]

I personally don't think he's our saving grace just because he's starting at FS on Sunday. I don't have the same faith is BVG's scheme or personnel decision making, that others due. Therefore, I think that some being concerned this turnouts like the Scmidt/Morgan, is valid. Essentially stunting a talented players growth.

It's great to hope, I hope he does too. Hope didn't have to do with my previous statement. People that are talking about what they actually think will happen and have reasons for it, that again are completely valid.

How can you say he isn't our saving grace this week when his backup is a banged up true freshman? The backup after that being God knows who.

Like I said before. You don't lose games because of one guy in the secondary. We should be in some kind of Cover 2 Man or Cover 4 all game against UT's offense anyway. If he has a bunch of mistakes, then that's on BVG. Sounds like your issue is BVG, not whoever is playing safety. If that's the case, then it doesn't matter who we put back or even the fact that Redfield isn't there. So the criticism of a guy you frankly don't know anything about (not an insult, nobody really does) seems a bit illogical.

 

[johnnycando]

I hope this kid comes out and balls out on Sunday. 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and a pick. And he shuts up everyone on this board.


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Agreed!

 

[Shamrock Theories]

Kelly is thinking on the road at Texas he wants a guy with college experience starting back there. He also said Studstill fell behind with the hamstring injury that kept him out of practice. Studstill will play this week and I think gradually his time will increase and eventually he'll start. Just not on the road at Texas.

Yup

Let me just add that I bet this is essentially a short term placeholder to deal with "the moment". I doubt we're at week 8 and see Avery taking more snaps than Studstill. Unless...... Avery is balling out, that'd be the only way I'd be disappointed.

And Yup.

 

[Luckylucci]

How can you say he isn't our saving grace this week when his backup is a banged up true freshman? The backup after that being God knows who.

Like I said before. You don't lose games because of one guy in the secondary. We should be in some kind of Cover 2 Man or Cover 4 all game against UT's offense anyway. If he has a bunch of mistakes, then that's on BVG. Sounds like your issue is BVG, not whoever is playing safety. If that's the case, then it doesn't matter who we put back or even the fact that Redfield isn't there. So the criticism of a guy you frankly don't know anything about (not an insult, nobody really does) seems a bit illogical.

I never said this was going to be the reason we'd lose. Just expressing that it's reasonable to doubt the move. BVG is a part of it. He made the personnel decision on Scmidt over Morgan. We were essentially told that might have stunted Morgans growth. That doesn't change the facts about Avery, your right.

Here is what I know, Sebastian has never been productive enough, in 5 years, to play starting FS for ND on Sunday. I hope he does, but I have all those reasons above to be skeptical.

 

[stlnd01]

Kelly is thinking on the road at Texas he wants a guy with college experience starting back there. He also said Studstill fell behind with the hamstring injury that kept him out of practice. Studstill will play this week and I think gradually his time will increase and eventually he'll start. Just not on the road at Texas.

The experience is a good point. UT on Sunday night could be a rough ride and this isn't Avery's first rodeo. Makes sense to use him now and ease Studstill in.
Still, both Avery and Tranquill have a lot of injuries in their past and neither shows much speed. The combo makes me nervous. Can't say I'm eager to see it last all season.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I sure hope he does but I don't think anyone is being ridiculous in their criticism here. He didn't have "starting S" productivity at Cal, he didn't last year at ND, and for those that have seen him (Spring/Summer) have not been impressed. Again, I hope he does, but this isn't misplaced negativity.



On top of that, we have a DC, that has given the fanbase a lot of reasons to challenge his decision making abilities. Whether that is personnel or scheme. So, I don't see it being unreasonable that folks question this move. Once again, I hope that BVG finally puts out a top 25 defense. I cheer for ND. But that doesn't change the past and how one would evaluate the current decision.

I never said that anyone was being ridiculous in their criticism. Or are being unfair to Avery. I'm just hoping come Sunday at 11:30 PM his play shuts up all the negative talk about him.

I don't know why you are singling me out, when I never said that the criticism in this thread was unfair or anything of that matter.


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[Luckylucci]

I never said that anyone was being ridiculous in their criticism. Or are being unfair to Avery. I'm just hoping come Sunday at 11:30 PM his play shuts up all the negative talk about him.

I don't know why you are singling me out, when I never said that the criticism in this thread was unfair or anything of that matter..

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Well you said "shut up everyone in this thread." Plus I don't feel like I aggressively blasted you. Just addressed the post with something fairly reasonable

 

[Crazy Balki]

Someone is forgetting 2011 Gary Gray @ Michigan lol

Close, but Tommy Rees' phantom fumble ruined a situation where we put them away for good.

 

[woolybug25]

Here is what I know, Sebastian has never been productive enough, in 5 years, to play starting FS for ND on Sunday. I hope he does, but I have all those reasons above to be skeptical.

That's pretty unfair to say he hasn't been productive when he's only started six games his entire career. His per snap production is actually pretty good. Im not saying this is what you're claiming, but there's a lot of chatter on here alluding to him sucking when he has been given the chance. That's not remotely true. The dude has started 6 games total and had good numbers in those games.

I'm not saying he has all star production or we should expect him to blow us away. But there is also no evidence of him sucking when you turn on the tape (linked below).

Notre Dame lands Cal graduate transfer Avery Sebastian – Inside the Irish

 

[Crazy Balki]

I don't think there's much to warrant negativity based on Sebastian's play. He's yet to see the field for us, so it's not like we know he's going to suck. Sometimes they just need the opportunity. I'm sure Avery originally was better suited for Strong Safety, but at just 5'11 195, he's not going to provide enough physicality. So the staff must be confident that Avery can be, at least somewhat solid in coverage to warrant the move.

My bigger concern is Avery actually being able to stay healthy. THAT has been his primary issue. He's yet to show he can do that in his career.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

'11 GA S Avery Sebastian (Notre Dame Transferee)

Well you said "shut up everyone in this thread." Plus I don't feel like I aggressively blasted you. Just addressed the post with something fairly reasonable

Again I never said he is being unfairly criticized. I just hope the kid proves the collective us wrong and shuts everyone up.

And I feel like you are always picking on me and criticize the majority of my post. You may not have "blasted" me in that post, but the majority of the time you do. Not really sure why you feel the need to always pick on me. I've always liked your posting and knowledge.


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[IrishLax]

I don't think there's much to warrant negativity based on Sebastian's play. He's yet to see the field for us, so it's not like we know he's going to suck. Sometimes they just need the opportunity. I'm sure Avery originally was better suited for Strong Safety, but at just 5'11 195, he's not going to provide enough physicality. So the staff must be confident that Avery can be, at least somewhat solid in coverage to warrant the move.

My bigger concern is Avery actually being able to stay healthy. THAT has been his primary issue. He's yet to show he can do that in his career.

The problem is everyone who was has watched him in close to a dozen practices now says he can't cover and is slow. Honestly, that's not the end of the world if you're playing with two high safeties, but Van Gorder has repeatedly asked his free safety to cover man-to-man.

 

[Luckylucci]

That's pretty unfair to say he hasn't been productive when he's only started six games his entire career. His per snap production is actually pretty good. Im not saying this is what you're claiming, but there's a lot of chatter on here alluding to him sucking when he has been given the chance. That's not remotely true. The dude has started 6 games total and had good numbers in those games.

I'm not saying he has all star production or we should expect him to blow us away. But there is also no evidence of him sucking when you turn on the tape (linked below).

Notre Dame lands Cal graduate transfer Avery Sebastian – Inside the Irish

In 5 years playing 6 games means he's not productive. If a guy doesn't produce, he doesn't produce, the reason doesn't matter. Whether it's talent or not, he hasn't produced at a starting FS level. You can't exclude missing the majority of his career due to injuries. Then everyone "could be" productive, essentially until they die and can't play anymore. This isn't about what I hope to happen, it's about what is reasonable to expect. The lack of production is reason to expect somewhat muted returns. I expect he'll be average but if someone came to me and said "I'm worried" and below average play. I couldn't disagree much

 

[tussin]

How healthy is he right now? Should we be holding our breath every time he makes a tackle?

 

[woolybug25]

In 5 years playing 6 games means he's not productive. If a guy doesn't produce, he doesn't produce, the reason doesn't matter. Whether it's talent or not, he hasn't produced at a starting FS level. You can't exclude missing the majority of his career due to injuries. Then everyone "could be" productive, essentially until they die and can't play anymore. This isn't about what I hope to happen, it's about what is reasonable to expect. The lack of production is reason to expect somewhat muted returns. I expect he'll be average but if someone came to me and said "I'm worried" and below average play. I'd totally see why.

Smh. Ok... So it doesn't matter that when he started, he did produce? It only matters that he doesn't have four years of compiled stats? I guess we shouldn't play anyone that isn't a fifth year then?

I don't know what more you want. If you are going to argue that he wasn't productive when he played, then you should only look at the time he was on the field. You're essentially punishing for not making more tackles in games he was sitting on the sidelines in a cast. It's a completely irrational argument.

If someone wants to poo poo on how reports have came back from practice or his injury history... Totally fair.... But you're on here trying to argue that he sucks because he didn't get tackles when he was hurt. Ok then. lol

 

[Luckylucci]

Smh. Ok... So it doesn't matter that when he started, he did produce? It only matters that he doesn't have four years of compiled stats? I guess we shouldn't play anyone that isn't a fifth year then?

I don't know what more you want. If you are going to argue that he wasn't productive when he played, then you should only look at the time he was on the field. You're essentially punishing for not making more tackles in games he was sitting on the sidelines in a cast. It's a completely irrational argument.

If someone wants to poo poo on how reports have came back from practice or his injury history... Totally fair.... But you're on here trying to argue that he sucks because he didn't get tackles when he was hurt. Ok then. lol

The point was he couldn't make the field, lol. Yes, that matters. And, yes, the next 6th year player that we have (with this little production) that is thrown into the starting rotation, not earn it, I'll probably have similar expectations.

 

[woolybug25]

The point was he couldn't make the field, lol. Yes, that matters. And, yes, the next 6th year player that we have (with this little production) that is thrown into the starting rotation, not earn it, I'll probably have similar expectations.

It would matter if you were claiming to be concerned that he couldn't stay on the field. Your claim is that he isn't going to play well because he hasn't been productive. Which is innacurate. I have said multiple times that it is totally fair if someone is concerned that he may not stay healthy. But in multiple posts, you have made it very clear that your concern is talent and his lack of production. Which is based on an illogical argument.

 

[stlnd01]

That's pretty unfair to say he hasn't been productive when he's only started six games his entire career. His per snap production is actually pretty good. Im not saying this is what you're claiming, but there's a lot of chatter on here alluding to him sucking when he has been given the chance. That's not remotely true. The dude has started 6 games total and had good numbers in those games.

I'm not saying he has all star production or we should expect him to blow us away. But there is also no evidence of him sucking when you turn on the tape (linked below).

Notre Dame lands Cal graduate transfer Avery Sebastian – Inside the Irish

Odds are, he's not terrible. But he has missed two of the last three seasons to injury and - in the one he did play - only played in seven games and couldn't crack the starting lineup on a mediocre Pac 12 team. Reports from camp haven't been so great. Oh, and he'll be playing free safety when his skill set suggests he's more natural as a strong safety. Skepticism doesn't seem unreasonable.
That said, of course you root for the guy. And Kelly obviously thinks Avery is the best start Sunday night. In a hostile, big-game road situation, compared to a true freshman, I get that.
If you want to point fingers on this decision, point them at Max Redfield. He created this situation.

 

[Luckylucci]

It would matter if you were claiming to be concerned that he couldn't stay on the field. Your claim is that he isn't going to play well because he hasn't been productive. Which is innacurate. I have said multiple times that it is totally fair if someone is concerned that he may not stay healthy. But in multiple posts, you have made it very clear that your concern is talent and his lack of production. Which is based on an illogical argument.

It is completely valid to look at past production as a harbinger of future performance and set expectations accordingly. Coaches do it every single day. I never said it was the only part of the equation but it's most definitely part. Let me just add, he wouldn't be playing, at all, if Redfield was here. So this isn't "earning a spot" like some players do late in their careers.

 

[woolybug25]

Odds are, he's not terrible. But he has missed two of the last three seasons to injury and - in the one he did play - only played in seven games and couldn't crack the starting lineup on a mediocre Pac 12 team. Reports from camp haven't been so great. Oh, and he'll be playing free safety when his skill set suggests he's more natural as a strong safety. Skepticism doesn't seem unreasonable.
That said, of course you root for the guy. And Kelly obviously thinks Avery is the best start Sunday night. In a hostile, big-game road situation, compared to a true freshman, I get that.
If you want to point fingers on this decision, point them at Max Redfield. He created this situation.

He wasn't able to crack the starting lineup as a freshman or sophomore, although he played plenty (with dare I say it... Production). His junior and senior years were injury plagued and his team moved on. When did starting at FS as a freshman or sophomore become a baseline? That's over performing if you ask me.

The rest of your post is accurate and fair.

 

[woolybug25]

It is completely valid to look at past production as a harbinger of future performance and set expectations accordingly. Coaches do it every single day. I never said it was the only part of the equation but it's most definitely part. Let me just add, he wouldn't be playing, at all, if Redfield was here. So this isn't "earning a spot" like some players do late in their careers.

You're being pretty dense here, man. You're right that it's fair to look at past performance to judge future performance. But where I disagree is that I doubt the coaches are looking at him on the sidelines when he's hurt trying to figure out why he isn't making more plays. I'm sorry, that's dumb as fuq. I'm trying to not be a dick here, but you keep continuing to claim that his actual play (not ability to stay healthy, etc) should be judged on his inability to make stats when injured. It's crazy.

 

[Luckylucci]

If he had ability to play, then he would've played more when healthy. He wasn't even playing in training camp, that's how much the staff liked him. The point is there are multiple data points to look at, production being one. It's why they keep stats. Nothing dense about it.

 

[woolybug25]

If he had ability to play, then he would've played more when healthy. He wasn't even playing in training camp, that's how much the staff liked him. The point is there are multiple data points to look at, production being one. It's why they keep stats. Nothing dense about it.

I agree that there are multiple data points, which I've pointed out multiple times. I've literally said that all along. The argument about him not beating out other players on our team for instance, is fair. But that hasn't been your point all along. If that would have been your point, we wouldn't be having this debate. It's the argument that he wasn't productive on the field. Which is innacurate. He hasn't had a productive career. There is a distinct difference.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

If he had ability to play, then he would've played more when healthy. He wasn't even playing in training camp, that's how much the staff liked him. The point is there are multiple data points to look at, production being one. It's why they keep stats. Nothing dense about it.

What I gather from what you are saying Lucky is you would rather have a true freshman play in a huge road game, with 100k screaming enemy fans, in a complicated defense that takes a player a few years to fully understand and who was injured for half of fall camp.

Look Avery is be best option right now. Deal with it and support the kid. Don't wish for him to fail.


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[jjsccer2]

https://youtu.be/UrIAnmtPnTo

#teamsebs

 

[IrishLion]

Having watched that highlight video...

Perhaps he's getting the start because of his run support ability? Texas is supposed to be running this vertical passing attack, but their strength is actually supposed to be their monster running backs. Perhaps the staff wants essentially two SS's out there to counter Texas' power runners? And we'll see Studstill on 3rd down?

 

[Luckylucci]

What I gather from what you are saying Lucky is you would rather have a true freshman play in a huge road game, with 100k screaming enemy fans, in a complicated defense that takes a player a few years to fully understand and who was injured for half of fall camp.

Look Avery is be best option right now. Deal with it and support the kid. Don't wish for him to fail.


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Haha, not even close but keep trying. Said, I hope he does well. Literally the opposite of what you posted.

I've said it's reasonable to have muted expectations. And for those think it could be bad, they'd have reasons, plural, to say that. Makes it really hard to argue that he should be our starting FS. Obviously the staff didn't think he was deserving at any point in the last 6 months.




Wooly, I've also said multiple times, more goes into than just production, but it's an important part of the discussion.

 

[NDinL.A.]

I don't think there's much to warrant negativity based on Sebastian's play. He's yet to see the field for us, so it's not like we know he's going to suck. Sometimes they just need the opportunity. I'm sure Avery originally was better suited for Strong Safety, but at just 5'11 195, he's not going to provide enough physicality. So the staff must be confident that Avery can be, at least somewhat solid in coverage to warrant the move.

My bigger concern is Avery actually being able to stay healthy. THAT has been his primary issue. He's yet to show he can do that in his career.

He's not 5'11". He's closer to 5'8" than 5'11".

I've seen him live in 3 practices. In all 3, he couldn't cover receivers. He simply sucks at it, at least in those practices. He is best at hitting people, which is why he is a SS and not a free.

Fortunately, in the last 2 media sessions, he played much better than in previous practices, which could be huge now that Max Redfield is gone. Like many, I wanted Studstill to start at the FS spot, but just 3 weeks ago I watched him do nothing at practice but work with a trainer, trying to get his leg right so he could practice again. So I could see why the coaches are going with the veteran in a hostile environment...

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Haha, not even close but keep trying. Said, I hope he does well. Literally the opposite of what you posted.



I've said it's reasonable to have muted expectations. And for those think it could be bad, they'd have reasons, plural, to say that. Makes it really hard to argue that he should be our starting FS. Obviously the staff didn't think he was deserving at any point in the last 6 months.









Wooly, I've also said multiple times, more goes into than just production, but it's an important part of the discussion.

So I don't get it. You still would rather have a true freshman who missed half of fall practice, hostile environment, etc start instead of Avery?


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[Henges24]

We keep talking about fairness in this thread. I think it's fair to say that he can lay the wood. Here's to hoping he has a few nasty hits like these on Saturday.

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