South Florida Bulls concerns

[Old Man Mike]

Many people continue to evince serious concern that USF will be one of our toughest challenges. I'm creating this thread because it is hard for me to see them as one of the best we will play, and I want to hear the reasons why that's a poor assessment. I am perfectly happy to be wrong on this.

ESPN had an on-going list of assessments of Big East talent rated one-through-eight position by position. Here are USF's pre-season rankings:

Defense: Defensive line= fourth. They lost three starters, and have little DT depth.
Linebacker= first. Their tandem is rated superior and depth is good.
Cornerbacks= third.
Safeties= second; overall a decent unit with some questions on the D-line.

Offense: Quaterback= fourth [behind Smith[WVU], Collaros, and Pitt's QB].Comment was that the returning starter is inconsistent and maybe too much hope is being placed on one game, Clemson, at the end of the year.
RBs=sixth. Lots of hope about unproven transfers, the alleged best of the two not showing well in Spring.
TE=fifth. Lost the starter.
WRs= sixth. Lost leading receiver.
Offensive line=fifth. Lost center and both tackles. RT to be a red-shirt freshman.
Generally, a second tier unit in the Big East.

There may be far more there than I see [Skip Holtz is one such ingredient that's true] and I'd like to hear about why they are so dangerous [especially with this being at home and Kelly getting extra time to prepare].

 

[ndcoltsfan2010]

In my opinion I think it will be a good game, but I see us winning easily down the stretch. I have a feeling that BK will have our team ready to play and I think our players are going to be hungry when this game comes around. I don't foresee us losing this one, because I think we are a better focused and disciplined football team than in the past. No longer do I think we look past certain games as a sure thing. Having lost to the likes of Navy, Tulsa and others in the past should serve notice that we cannot take any team lightly and we sure are not going to take USF lightly in my opinion. BK and staff will have our team focused and ready to play and I see us winning this game comfortably. USF will be a decent football team but I think we are much better.

 

[mgriff]

Many people continue to evince serious concern that USF will be one of our toughest challenges. I'm creating this thread because it is hard for me to see them as one of the best we will play, and I want to hear the reasons why that's a poor assessment. I am perfectly happy to be wrong on this.

ESPN had an on-going list of assessments of Big East talent rated one-through-eight position by position. Here are USF's pre-season rankings:

Defense: Defensive line= fourth. They lost three starters, and have little DT depth.
Linebacker= first. Their tandem is rated superior and depth is good.
Cornerbacks= third.
Safeties= second; overall a decent unit with some questions on the D-line.

Offense: Quaterback= fourth [behind Smith[WVU], Collaros, and Pitt's QB].Comment was that the returning starter is inconsistent and maybe too much hope is being placed on one game, Clemson, at the end of the year.
RBs=sixth. Lots of hope about unproven transfers, the alleged best of the two not showing well in Spring.
TE=fifth. Lost the starter.
WRs= sixth. Lost leading receiver.
Offensive line=fifth. Lost center and both tackles. RT to be a red-shirt freshman.
Generally, a second tier unit in the Big East.

There may be far more there than I see [Skip Holtz is one such ingredient that's true] and I'd like to hear about why they are so dangerous [especially with this being at home and Kelly getting extra time to prepare].

I'm with you OMM--I'm not worried about the Bulls, but I understand why some are. USF has a history of starting very well and then imploding later on in the year, well after we've seen them. They also have a history of playing better than anticipated many seasons, as well as the ability to reload with quality players. They have been very consistent since they've been in the Big East, and it's simply an unnerving team to have up first on the schedule. I think people may be giving them a bit too much credit, because, as you pointed out, they aren't that great on paper. USF just has a knack for being a pest and overperforming.

 

[Rocket89]

I think everyone's just concerned because it's the first game. I seriously don't see USF being any better than the Purdue team we faced last year, and we had that game from start to finish.

They have some athletes on defense (this will be repeated ad nauseum until September 3rd), but nowhere near the depth, experience, and talent across the board to be really even considered a tough defense.

I think some are worried our offense is going to be rusty and out of sync and USF is going to cause a couple turnovers and keep the game really close. I just don't see that happening with the amount of time Kelly has had to prepare.

This isn't going to be like a Weis team where we look great in a couple series and then fade down the stretch in the second half. Kelly will have this team ready to roll for 4 quarters, and I don't think USF is ready to handle that.

Offensively, USF is not scary at all.

 

[ND_HAS_RISEN]

My concern is that USF is a quality opponent. I would rank them on or about the same level as a West Virginia, or a Pittsburgh. Playing ANY quality opponent in the opening game is dangerous.

They have talent. And they have SPEED. With that combination, anything is possible.

While I agree that BK has ample time to prepare, there is "usually" a lot of things missing in the first game (timing, mistakes, wrong pursuit angles, etc..). Every single year ND takes on a schedule for the first 4-6 weeks of dangerous, quality opponents. I honestly believe that if our schedules would have been flip flopped for at least the 5 years, we really could have had much different results. Why do all the conferences schedule the conference games at the latter half of the season? ND will always have this problem due to scheduling because of conference games.

Anyways, I kind of rambled a bit, just woke up . But the point is, I don't fear USF mid way in the season nearly as much as I do out of the gates.

 

[Kingbish01]

South Florida is well coached and has some pretty good athletes. I think Skip Holtz will have them ready to play, he did really well at ECU. I think it will be close in the 1st half, with ND playing a shutout 2nd half. ND 31-14

BUT WHAT THE H DO I KNOW!! lol

 

[tankjeep]

i agree ndwr. it's a quality opponent as far as athleticism is concerned. but on top of that, they are well coached. that to me is a combination worth worrying about. i'm not going to lose sleep over it, but it definitely isn't a cupcake of a game.

 

[Kingbish01]

Also B.J Daniels stunk it up last year against every team with a decent D. 65 QB rating against UF, WVU, Pitt, Miami, and Cuse (Cuse won 13-9)

 

[RyCo1983]

35-7 we win running away. Kelly goes for the throat. Stomps on it. And doesn't let up.
that 35 could easily be 45 but I don't think the offense will be clicking the first game.

 

[Rhode Irish]

If USF were on the schedule for late October this wouldn't be a game I would circle. My concern isn't about USF as much as it is about Notre Dame. This is not a game we should be worried about, and I believe that in the Brian Kelly era we won't have to worry about this type of game. But I need to see it on the field to confirm my beliefs. I wasn't worried about Tulsa last year, or UConn or Syracuse.

Unfortunately, following this team over the last few years has led me to be extremely paranoid about games "we should win." I want to believe that those days are behind us. I feel like Sept. 3 could go a long way toward convincing me that they are, but I can't take it on faith. I need to see it.

 

[hrc08]

38-17 and we're resting by the 4th.

Daniel's running worries me a tad. They replace 3 lineman so I can see a senario that he makes a few plays when his protection breaks down.

Big day's for Cierre and Manti.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Lots of the usual hand-waving about "quality opponent" and Skip Holtz.

USF's defense ranked 29th last season, and returns most of their starters; should be respectable on that side of the ball.

Their offense ranked 74th, and they only return 4/11 starters. Even if Skip Holtz is a brilliant coach, it's going to be a task just ensuring this unit doesn't a step back from last year's weak performance.

I simply don't see how USF hangs enough points on our defense-- on the road in the first game of the year-- to even make this game close.

 

[Kingbish01]

Skip Holtz is a great coach, and everyone plays the game of their lives in Notre Dame stadium. I really believe that Tulsa, Navy, Uconn, and Syracuse all won because it was at ND. Most of those athletes know that winning there will be a story they will tell their kids and grandkids. So ND gets everyones best shot and Skip probably talked about this game in his interview...That being said, out with the old and in with the new. BK is now on the sidelines and I have a good feeling every Saturday they step on the field.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Lots of the usual hand-waving about "quality opponent" and Skip Holtz.

USF's defense ranked 29th last season, and returns most of their starters; should be respectable on that side of the ball.

Their offense ranked 74th, and they only return 4/11 starters. Even if Skip Holtz is a brilliant coach, it's going to be a task just ensuring this unit doesn't a step back from last year's weak performance.

I simply don't see how USF hangs enough points on our defense-- on the road in the first game of the year-- to even make this game close.

I'd really like to agree with you, but I think you could have made a strong case for why Tulsa, UConn or Syracuse didn't have a shot, either.

The one thing you said that I disagree with is the point about how many starters are returning. I don't ever buy that argument in college sports. Roster turnover is a part of college football. If the younger guys stepping into the roles vacated by graduating players are more talented than those they are replacing, then the team could improve rather than decline. As far as the first game, yes, maybe there is an argument that first-game jitters or lack of experience could hurt them.

Overall, I'll pick ND to win the game. I think they are the better team. So, in that sense, I agree with what you and just about everyone else is saying. At the same time, though, Notre Dame has had a habit of losing a couple games every year that I was confident they would win. That is where my nervousness comes from. I'm not "scared" of USF, but I'm anxious to see Notre Dame show up and play consistently up to expectations over the course of a full season.

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

The only reason I have any concern about this game is because it is the first game of the season. I believe this game will have a similar outcome to the Nevada game two years ago. I'm thinking 31-10 something like that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'd really like to agree with you, but I think you could have made a strong case for why Tulsa, UConn or Syracuse didn't have a shot, either.

Saying, "I have a hard time seeing how USF beats us" isn't the same as saying, "there's no way we could possibly lose to this team." In the immortal words of Gordon Gee, we don't play the Little Sisters of the Poor. Any team on our schedule could potentially beat us if we come out flat.

That being said, the only productive way to analyze these match ups ahead of time involves statistics; and statistically, USF is a long-shot to win this game.

The one thing you said that I disagree with is the point about how many starters are returning. I don't ever buy that argument in college sports. Roster turnover is a part of college football. If the younger guys stepping into the roles vacated by graduating players are more talented than those they are replacing, then the team could improve rather than decline. As far as the first game, yes, maybe there is an argument that first-game jitters or lack of experience could hurt them.

There's a reason the # of returning starters features prominently in every preseason poll out there; it's the most reliable indicator of whether a team will improve over last years performance, or whether there will be inconsistency/ rebuilding/ etc.

It's very rare for a freshman or unblooded bench warmer to step in and do better than a starter who just graduated; that's why he was sitting on the bench last year.

Overall, I'll pick ND to win the game. I think they are the better team. So, in that sense, I agree with what you and just about everyone else is saying. At the same time, though, Notre Dame has had a habit of losing a couple games every year that I was confident they would win. That is where my nervousness comes from. I'm not "scared" of USF, but I'm anxious to see Notre Dame show up and play consistently up to expectations over the course of a full season.

That's totally legitimate, but I'll suggest that most of those head-scratching losses can be attributed to poor coaching, player development, and a lack of proper conditioning. All three of those seem to be fixed now, but there's only one way to find out.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The only reason I have any concern about this game is because it is the first game of the season. I believe this game will have a similar outcome to the Nevada game two years ago. I'm thinking 31-10 something like that.

This is exactly what I wanted to type. Purdue last year had that same uneasy feeling. I believe it's due to the fact that it's the first game of the season and no one can truly know what to expect. Nevada looked amazing on paper. Purdue wasn't supposed to be that bad last year, yet ND prevailed. I look for a similar outcome this year. I believe our guys will possess that cut-throat, kick 'em while they're down, nail in the coffin, show no mercy attitude. I think the last 4 games of last season gave them a taste of winning big games and it gave them confidence to not be afraid of anyone (not saying USF deserves to be feared). There most definitely will be a buzz around campus. I just don't see USF coming in and being able to compete against a much improved ND defense.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

Well, if we want to be at the BCS championship level we better beat them by at least 25 points. They simply do not have the resources on offense, defense or coaching that ND has.

No more of this 21-17 crap with teams we should pummel. The schedule gets real next year, the time to bully teams is now. ND needs to come out strong and dominate USF 44-13.. or something in that ballpark. I believe they will.

 

[aubeirish]

The biggest concern I have is BJ Daniels. He can either be really good or really awful. We can only assume the really good is going to show up at Notre dame stadium comes September.

 

[BGIF]

Many people continue to evince serious concern that USF will be one of our toughest challenges. I'm creating this thread because it is hard for me to see them as one of the best we will play, and I want to hear the reasons why that's a poor assessment. I am perfectly happy to be wrong on this.

...

I'm puzzled by the need for this thread seeing as we just discussed our opponents in the Ranking Notre Dame Opponents thread 4 days ago. There was one poster, whose opinion I value, who pointed out there were 3 ways to look at rankings:

1) simple excellence
2) physicality plus rivalry
3) national psychology

He ranked USF the 5th Best Team, the 8th most physical/rivarly, and the 3rd "most important to win". That averages out to a 5.3. When I averaged the 3 sets of rankings the poster provided it showed the ranking of our 12 opponents from 1 to 12. USF was 5th tucked close behind SU who is forecast as Top 10 Team.

1) USC average score 1.0
2) MSU 3.3
3) UM 3.0
4) SU 5.0
5) USF 5.3
6) PIT 6.3
7) UMD 7.0
8) BC 7.3
9) USN 8.0
10) AF 9.7
11) PU 10.0
12) WF 10.3

In that same thread I posted:

Steele likes USF. He pegs them as his #5 Surprise Team in '11 (ND is #2). Holtz like Kelly is in his second year there. And like Kelly at previous stops, UCon and ECU, he got players to overachieve. USF graduated some people but Steele has them as his #25 Preseason Team. Holtz's and his OC will be in their 7th year together.

IF we have a QB out of the gate hitting receivers rather than hitting their feet, the decent running game we expect, AND the Defense continues the way it ended last season, ND could roll in this game. USF isn't USC but then, neither was Tulsa.

And for clarification Steele Preseason Ranking is his PREDICTION for the Final Rankings, i.e., USF at #25. That's not based on power alone but includes the schedules.

Steele's Power Poll lists ND and our opponents in this Top 120 as:
7) ND
14) SU
17) USC
22) MSU
34) PIT
35) USF
44) UM
47) BC
48) AF
53) PU
59) UMD
74) WF
86) USN

Once again USF falls into the 5th toughest, this time ahead of UM.

In his USF review he notes:
QB - 'I look for much improved QB play in the 2nd yr of Holtz's system."
RB - "I predict USF will have their most productive leading rusher since Andre Hall's 1,374 in '05."
WR/TE - "Despite the loss of the top guy, this is a much more exp'd unit with the ret. of Love and Griffin."
OL - "New LT Popek has 9 career sts and while less exp'd with just 2 st'rs back, they are in the 2nd year of Holtz's offense and colud be more productive."
DL - "This group is just as exp'd as '10 and is now in the 2nd yr of Holtz's system.
LB - "They basically had zero st'rs back LY and this year return 2 plus add JUCO Jeune and should be stronger."
DB - "They lost CB Raymons ... but this time have 7 of their top 8 back incl 3rd TM BE SS Lejiste, and the Bulls should make significant strides.
ST - "USF was only #67 but this yr with everyone back this should be one of the BE's top ST units."
Coaches - "The DC is Mark Snyder who was the HC at Marshall for 5 yrs. He was also tOSU's LB coach '01-'03 and DC '04.
Phil's Forecast - "Holtz 2nd ssn but has just 11 ret st'rs and only 3 BE HG's. This is still a very talented tm and they only lose 15 letterman (fewest BE). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and 1 will call for them to top last year's 8 win total."


ND and USF had two common opponents last year PIT and MIA. Both beat MIA, USF 23-20 in OT at MIA; ND 33-17 neutral site. USV lost to PIT 10-17 at home; ND beat PIT 23-17 in SB. Both teams has close games that could have gone either way. ND had the far tougher schedule Steele #6 while USF was his #62. (In '11 he has ND #14 and USF #64 Toughest Schedules).

I don't know of anyone who thinks USF is our toughest game. But it is one of the toughest. The people who take USF lightly are the same people that took Navy and Tulsa lightly last year. And as that sage poster noted in the other thread this is one of most important games from a national PR viewpoint:

3). USF ["Watch out world, here we come!!"]

That's essentially what Coughlin said in the lockerroom before the ND games. It's what Navy, AF ('96), Syracuse, and UCon coaches told their players before the kickoffs. "They think we're nobody. Well nobody here got an offer to go to Notre Dame. They said you weren't good enough. Show them on the field today!"

 

[Rhode Irish]

Saying, "I have a hard time seeing how USF beats us" isn't the same as saying, "there's no way we could possibly lose to this team." In the immortal words of Gordon Gee, we don't play the Little Sisters of the Poor. Any team on our schedule could potentially beat us if we come out flat.

That being said, the only productive way to analyze these match ups ahead of time involves statistics; and statistically, USF is a long-shot to win this game.

I totally agree. I don't think I could even come up with an argument for why USF is dangerous, honestly. My point is that ND has lost plenty of games where fair analysis would have predicted them to win easily, and that is why I'm not ready to say we will blast them 42-0. Games don't always play out the way they look on paper, and that is the only reason I am anxious about the game.

There's a reason the # of returning starters features prominently in every preseason poll out there; it's the most reliable indicator of whether a team will improve over last years performance, or whether there will be inconsistency/ rebuilding/ etc.

It's very rare for a freshman or unblooded bench warmer to step in and do better than a starter who just graduated; that's why he was sitting on the bench last year.

If you had a situation where a sophomore was pushing a senior last year, but due to experience in the system or loyalty or just weak coaching the senior was starting, that position can improve. If that situation plays out in a couple different positions, you could have an improved team. On most championship-caliber teams you need to have a lot of returning starters (I think Auburn started ~15/22 returning starters last year), but USF is not going to compete for a national championship. I think it is possible that they improve compared to last year.

That's totally legitimate, but I'll suggest that most of those head-scratching losses can be attributed to poor coaching, player development, and a lack of proper conditioning. All three of those seem to be fixed now, but there's only one way to find out.

We share an opinion on this, definitely. But that is why I am anxious to get rolling. I want this proved to me, and until it is I will have the thought in the back of my mind that we've been down this road before (the "we're back!" talk). The USF game will either be the beginning of my getting over that fear, or totally exacerbate it.

And that is really my only point about the USF game. It isn't USF. It could be any legit FBS team, really. I'm not worried about the game because I think USF is vastly underrated or because I know anything about them that indicates that they're sneaky-dangerous. I just have a small fear that we've seen this movie before, and I'm anxious to have that eradicated.

I'm worried about the game only because of the damage that a clunker could do to the momentum of the program.

 

[ND_HAS_RISEN]

^THIS!!!^

Seriously, NUFF SAID!!! BGIF you are my IDOL

 

[Riddickulous]

Lots of the usual hand-waving about "quality opponent" and Skip Holtz.

USF's defense ranked 29th last season, and returns most of their starters; should be respectable on that side of the ball.

Their offense ranked 74th, and they only return 4/11 starters. Even if Skip Holtz is a brilliant coach, it's going to be a task just ensuring this unit doesn't a step back from last year's weak performance.

I simply don't see how USF hangs enough points on our defense-- on the road in the first game of the year-- to even make this game close.

Their rushing offense was ranked 74th. Their total offense was ranked 103rd heading into bowl season.

The gameplan for this one appears pretty simple: Choke off the running lanes and force Daniels to throw, while pounding the rock on offense and keeping passing to a minimum.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Their rushing offense was ranked 74th. Their total offense was ranked 103rd heading into bowl season.

I was citing to Football Outsiders F/ + Combined Ratings: 74th Offense, 27th Defense, 41st Overall.

Since they don't account for SoS, NCAA's vanilla statistics are misleading.

 

[IrishandColts]

41-14

 

[Old Man Mike]

Post#20 of this thread apparently stands in opposition to my even creating this thread. To all of you out there who feel that way, I apologize.

In a useless [and in theory unnecessary] attempt to explain my actions, I'll say the following in as calm a way as I can: A). The thread was started in response to a feeling on the board that this game was going to be better than I thought and I wanted to hear from everybody why. The discussion has been interesting to me, at least.

B). My ranking of USF as our #5 opponent on a previous thread in terms of quality does not mean that I think that they pose a serious threat to this ND team. I, perhaps foolishly, do not think that our schedule is loaded with many powerful teams this year. We have a lot of decent teams on it, but my judgement of our own team says that we should control any game with a merely decent team.

C). Everybody's going cabin-fever bonkers waiting for the season, and this gives them something at least mildly interesting to talk about [especially since it's the first game, and I sense that most didn't know much about USF].

I'm tempted to say more "in my defense", but sense that it would bear only rotten fruit, so I'll shut up.

 

[tadman95]

I like the thread OMM, especially this time of year. On paper we're better but like the man said, "It's why we play the game". A couple of turnovers, an injury, a bad call and anything can happen.

Holtz can coach too, and it's his second year so there should improvement on their side too. We'll win but I'll be glad when it's over.

 

[Praytorian]

I kind of liked the part where we would be resting in the 4th quarter. Poor opposing qbs though, 2nd string has the BEAST Mr. Lynch if I'm correct, and he will be able to go all out pass rush if we know they will be throwing all the time.

Go Irish

 

[ACamp1900]

I'm concerned more on our side of the ball than USF's....

 

[ND101]

I believe we iwin also but unless we contain there qb who is very dynamic yet sporadic then it is a ballgame. Saying this I believe KLM and Ethan and the boys with physically dominate the line of scrimmage and we roll. Cant wait for the start the start of the season. Go Irish!