2025 College Football Playoffs

Bane

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Committee's eye-testing right now.

Who do we think is Wowing them more? (We did some amazing things vs Pitt.)

They still might choose the wrong way, but ...
They also use all the advanced metrics which are basically quantified "eye tests" and all of those have us well ahead of Miami. In fact, many of them have had us a solidly top 5 team most of the season.
 

IrishLax

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There’s a world where teams like James Madison and North Texas win their conference and are ranked ahead of the ACC champion. Unlikely.
The major problem with the system is that the autobids were originally designed with the idea that you have five power conferences of reasonable size and then you were going to have a 6th "BCS" style auto-inclusion. With realignment and the PAC12 folding, the SEC and Big Ten got WAY BETTER... the ACC got diluted and the Big 12 got raided. But the G5 also lost most of their top teams to the Big 12 to mitigate their losses. So your G5 teams are worse than ever, the ACC is worse than ever, and the Big 12 is arguably getting shorted relative to the talent of their top teams because of bloat in the SEC.

When you look at the metrics, there are ~9 teams with a reasonable chance to actually compete for a title. Then there are another ~4 teams (Bama, Oklahoma, Miami, USC) that could hypothetically make noise... though Oklahoma and USC have flaws on one side of the ball that doesn't make them legitimate contenders. No one else is relevant. Expand it to 16 teams, or put a clause in that any G5 team has to be in the Top 20 of the committee rankings to be considered.
 

OrlaNDomer

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I'd argue that Miami has the best win (ND), but overall Miami's 8 wins are only marginally better than ND's wins. It's obvious that ND's two losses are far better than Miami's two losses (@ Miami by 3 > vs Louisville by 3 & vs Texas A&M by 1 > @ SMU by 6). If Miami beat ND by 2 scores then fine, put them over ND, but a coin flip game to open the year at home is not enough for me to say the head-to-head is the determining factor of which team deserves to get in. ND will have a chance to play two teams that Miami has already beaten to close the year, would be a good thing to beat them more convincingly (Stanford by 35 and Syracuse by 28).

Miami WinsNotre Dame Wins
1Notre Dame1USC
2Florida2Pittsburgh
3South Florida3Boise State
4Florida State4Arkansas
5NC State5NC State
6Stanford6Navy
7Syracuse7Purdue
8Bethune Cookman8Boston College
Miami LossesNotre Dame Losses
1Louisville1Texas A&M
2SMU2Miami
 

Bane

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The major problem with the system is that the autobids were originally designed with the idea that you have five power conferences of reasonable size and then you were going to have a 6th "BCS" style auto-inclusion. With realignment and the PAC12 folding, the SEC and Big Ten got WAY BETTER... the ACC got diluted and the Big 12 got raided. But the G5 also lost most of their top teams to the Big 12 to mitigate their losses. So your G5 teams are worse than ever, the ACC is worse than ever, and the Big 12 is arguably getting shorted relative to the talent of their top teams because of bloat in the SEC.

When you look at the metrics, there are ~9 teams with a reasonable chance to actually compete for a title. Then there are another ~4 teams (Bama, Oklahoma, Miami, USC) that could hypothetically make noise... though Oklahoma and USC have flaws on one side of the ball that doesn't make them legitimate contenders. No one else is relevant. Expand it to 16 teams, or put a clause in that any G5 team has to be in the Top 20 of the committee rankings to be considered.
I think they should do away with the conference autobids or acknowledge the new reality of the sport and shrink them down to the two highest rated conference champions getting them. The ACC, Mid12, and the G5 conferences don't deserve an autobid.
 

NDQuebec

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I mean, anything could happen. But also Michigan has shown no signs of being able to beat anyone with a pulse. Taking out Ohio State and Indiana back-to-back seems unlikely?

Would they go to the Big 10 title game if they beat Ohio State? Or would the winner of USC/Oregon? I'm unclear on the tie breakers there.

Also an interesting question where Michigan would land if they beat Ohio State and finished third in the conference at 10-2 overall. Both their losses were rough and besides Ohio State they'd have no other meaningful wins. But they would have the season's biggest win of anyone.
If Michigan beats OSU:
 
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NDWarrior

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I'd argue that Miami has the best win (ND), but overall Miami's 8 wins are only marginally better than ND's wins. It's obvious that ND's two losses are far better than Miami's two losses (@ Miami by 3 > vs Louisville by 3 & vs Texas A&M by 1 > @ SMU by 6). If Miami beat ND by 2 scores then fine, put them over ND, but a coin flip game to open the year at home is not enough for me to say the head-to-head is the determining factor of which team deserves to get in. ND will have a chance to play two teams that Miami has already beaten to close the year, would be a good thing to beat them more convincingly (Stanford by 35 and Syracuse by 28).

Miami WinsNotre Dame Wins
1Notre Dame1USC
2Florida2Pittsburgh
3South Florida3Boise State
4Florida State4Arkansas
5NC State5NC State
6Stanford6Navy
7Syracuse7Purdue
8Bethune Cookman8Boston College
Miami LossesNotre Dame Losses
1Louisville1Texas A&M
2SMU2Miami

What a clown...

"2) They just faced two teams who chose NOT to compete at 100% (Navy and Pitt)."

 

MrNimbus

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What a clown...

"2) They just faced two teams who chose NOT to compete at 100% (Navy and Pitt)."


So is that the formula? Play all your 2nd string players, go 0-12, claim you didn't try, make the playoffs?

That's genius. You'll be well rested and have an excuse of not having time to gel if you get blown out.
 

NorthDakota

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What a clown...

"2) They just faced two teams who chose NOT to compete at 100% (Navy and Pitt)."


Yes there are people going through the stages of grief right now. They desperately want to believe Notre Dame isn't a game that gets circled by every team every year.

Also the G5 getting a spot is fine and I dont even care that its generally going to be a bodybag game. But make no mistake, this is some goofy nostalgia from back when there were some very good programs in the Mountain West and American conference.

I am fine letting them have that spot even if its a 8-4 MAC champ or something. Whomever they are stealing a spot from probably weren't making a run either.
 

IrishLax

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Yes there are people going through the stages of grief right now. They desperately want to believe Notre Dame isn't a game that gets circled by every team every year.

Also the G5 getting a spot is fine and I dont even care that its generally going to be a bodybag game. But make no mistake, this is some goofy nostalgia from back when there were some very good programs in the Mountain West and American conference.

I am fine letting them have that spot even if its a 8-4 MAC champ or something. Whomever they are stealing a spot from probably weren't making a run either.
I sorta disagree on the latter considering that the finals last year was the #7 seed vs the #8 seed. I see at least 10 real contenders this year and maybe as many as 13, most wide open year ever. I don't understand the point of wasting multiple spots on teams that have no prayer of competing (UVA, GT, JMU, whoever) and having crappy blowout matchups.
 

IRISHDODGER

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The major problem with the system is that the autobids were originally designed with the idea that you have five power conferences of reasonable size and then you were going to have a 6th "BCS" style auto-inclusion. With realignment and the PAC12 folding, the SEC and Big Ten got WAY BETTER... the ACC got diluted and the Big 12 got raided. But the G5 also lost most of their top teams to the Big 12 to mitigate their losses. So your G5 teams are worse than ever, the ACC is worse than ever, and the Big 12 is arguably getting shorted relative to the talent of their top teams because of bloat in the SEC.

When you look at the metrics, there are ~9 teams with a reasonable chance to actually compete for a title. Then there are another ~4 teams (Bama, Oklahoma, Miami, USC) that could hypothetically make noise... though Oklahoma and USC have flaws on one side of the ball that doesn't make them legitimate contenders. No one else is relevant. Expand it to 16 teams, or put a clause in that any G5 team has to be in the Top 20 of the committee rankings to be considered.
This will be all the evidence that the powers that be need (CFP, TV Networks, P4 Conferences) to justify expanding to 16. And then they’ll be right back to the same argument and want to expand again. We all know it’s going to end up being two monster conferences at some point.
 

Wild Bill

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I'm not sure if the
Unless Vegas is just way off here, it's implied strongly that ND will be ranked over Bama on Tuesday:
That may have more to do with Bama’s path than whatever their ranking is on Tuesday. They’ll be favored @ Auburn, but they’ll likely be a dog in the SEC title game, assuming they even get there. It'll get real interesting if they lose taht game.
 

IrishLax

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I'm not sure if the

That may have more to do with Bama’s path than whatever their ranking is on Tuesday. They’ll be favored @ Auburn, but they’ll likely be a dog in the SEC title game, assuming they even get there. It'll get real interesting if they lose taht game.
I had totally forgotten that they had the inside track for that given that they beat Georgia head-to-head.
 

ab2cmiller

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So do you think Kiffin is definitely interested in these two options or is this a strategic application of leverage to get Ole Miss to overpay to keep him?
 

stlnd01

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.
I'm not sure if the

That may have more to do with Bama’s path than whatever their ranking is on Tuesday. They’ll be favored @ Auburn, but they’ll likely be a dog in the SEC title game, assuming they even get there. It'll get real interesting if they lose taht game.
Bama is more likely to win the SEC than they are to get knocked out of the playoffs for losing the SEC title game.
 
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Bane

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Yes there are people going through the stages of grief right now. They desperately want to believe Notre Dame isn't a game that gets circled by every team every year.

Also the G5 getting a spot is fine and I dont even care that its generally going to be a bodybag game. But make no mistake, this is some goofy nostalgia from back when there were some very good programs in the Mountain West and American conference.

I am fine letting them have that spot even if its a 8-4 MAC champ or something. Whomever they are stealing a spot from probably weren't making a run either.
It's so funny to me that ND has been every opposing team's Super Bowl for decades to the point that when a surefire first ballot NFL HOFer in Aaron Donald was asked what he remembered about his days in Pitt he said "beating Notre Dame" with clear pride, now all of a sudden no one cares about playing ND and doesn't even try.
I sorta disagree on the latter considering that the finals last year was the #7 seed vs the #8 seed. I see at least 10 real contenders this year and maybe as many as 13, most wide open year ever. I don't understand the point of wasting multiple spots on teams that have no prayer of competing (UVA, GT, JMU, whoever) and having crappy blowout matchups.
I don't believe in conference autobids. If we have them it should be limited to 2 which is in better recognition of the reality of today's landscape. No way the ACC or the "Big" 12 (which is just a Frankenstein G5 conference) should get an autobid.
There's certainly an argument to be made that the committee will value ND being a complete team over Bama, who can't run the ball particularly well or stop the run either.
The committee certainly seems to value being a complete team and they've mentioned several times that part of their love of ND is the fact that our defense has turned it around and is playing at a very high level. For that reason if we're ranked above OU and Alabama I wouldn't be surprised (but wouldn't complain about OU jumping us either). OU is not a complete team, their offense sucks.
It is just really hard for me to see him not going to UF.

UF is a big dog. Ol' Miss is not.
Someone pointed out in the watchparty thread that that even with Kiffin's recent success at OM their team talent composition was 21. UF hasn't been good for 15 years and their team talent composition is 12.
 

jprue24

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I don't believe in conference autobids. If we have them it should be limited to 2 which is in better recognition of the reality of today's landscape. No way the ACC or the "Big" 12 (which is just a Frankenstein G5 conference) should get an autobid.
C'mon, at the moment I think it's clearly a better football conference than the ACC.
 

NorthDakota

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C'mon, I think it's clearly a better football conference than the ACC, at the moment.
The ACC at least mostly looks like a conference. And two of their three big programs are down right now (F$U and Clemson).

The Big 12 is just a shit ton of P5 "fillers" with an assortment of G5 teams.
 

jprue24

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The ACC at least mostly looks like a conference. And two of their three big programs are down right now (F$U and Clemson).

The Big 12 is just a shit ton of P5 "fillers" with an assortment of G5 teams.
That doesn't have anything to do with the quality of football.
 

Rudy89

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If we get the shaft (not saying we are going to but we have gotten the shaft before) is our destination the Pop Tarts bowl? I only ask as I might be taking a trip around the holidays to San Diego so if we can’t be in the playoffs if the Holiday Bowl is an option with its ACC tie in I might be able to go to that game…
 

2013Irish

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That fat slob Fallica is flapping his gums about Miami being wronged in the rankings. No one feels bad for a team that plays in the worst power conference and lost to two unranked teams.

Listening to him get analytical about sports betting and I'm reminded of this Onion article:

 
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