2025 College Football Playoffs

[Dale]

Utah is at 13 and has a loss to both BYU and Texas Tech. So the loser should theoretically go to 11 after this week. For Tech to be a 2 loss team ahead of so many others seems dumb. That may have been a bad choice by the committee to put Utah there. They are on a bye so they could fix it by having teams hop Utah this week based off wins. Sliding Utah to like 16 and Tech to 15 for example. BYU as a one loss sliding from 7 to 11 makes more sense but still feels like a pretty small drop for a Big 12 school after a loss.

 

[Dale]

Speaking of Utah, the brand bias to ND complaints are funny in that regard. This is Utah’s resume: 2 Top 10 losses. 0 ranked wins. I haven’t seen a single complaint registered Utah’s way on being #13 ahead of every ACC school and many B1G and SEC 2 loss teams. Utah brand bias?

 

[NorthDakota]

Parity may be at an all-time high.

Parity among those with money is certainly higher than it was. G5's have less money, fewer alumni, fewer engaged alumni, and their best programs all joined the Big 12 and ACC.

 

[sixstar]

Speaking of Utah, the brand bias to ND complaints are funny in that regard. This is Utah’s resume: 2 Top 10 losses. 0 ranked wins. I haven’t seen a single complaint registered Utah’s way on being #13 ahead of every ACC school and many B1G and SEC 2 loss teams. Utah brand bias?

And the fact that Utah has a 24-point loss at home to TTU, where they got outgained by 220 yards.

 

[LifelongFan]

The BYU scenario only matters if Texas or Oklahoma jumps us. Right now at 10 we occupy the last at-large spot, with two conference champ autobids behind us. If there's a third - Texas Tech - then we'd have to be the nine seed. Right now, we would be. But if, say, Texas were to jump ahead of us, and one-loss BYU stays ahead of us, we might get squeezed out.

This is all very unlikely, to be clear. Probably all these teams plus Oregon lose and we're like the 7 seed by the time the dust settles. My sheets are dry as the Sahara. I'm just talking through scenarios in my head.

If Texas and Oklahoma win out they deserve to jump us and knock us out. They have very tough schedules coming up and neither team is very good, so that would be quite shocking.

If Texas does beat Georgia, I think to hedge we just have to root for GT to win out and knock Georgia out of the playoffs. GT can be the ACC champs and Texas can replace Georgia in the playoffs.

 

[stlnd01]

Speaking of Utah, the brand bias to ND complaints are funny in that regard. This is Utah’s resume: 2 Top 10 losses. 0 ranked wins. I haven’t seen a single complaint registered Utah’s way on being #13 ahead of every ACC school and many B1G and SEC 2 loss teams. Utah brand bias?

I don't really understand why people think the Big 12 is better than the ACC, but there's a similar effect to the SEC where all the teams get credit for ranked wins/losses because so many teams are ranked. An echo chamber of brand bias.

 

[Dale]

I don't really understand why people think the Big 12 is better than the ACC, but there's a similar effect to the SEC where all the teams get credit for ranked wins/losses because so many teams are ranked. An echo chamber of brand bias.

I think Texas Tech spending spree has a lot to do with it. Utah is a traditional 21st century power, ASU at least competed in the CFP last year, and Texas Tech spent the money. The idea this year has been those 3 programs in particular are respectable. BYU has just not lost and been a beneficiary of it.

 

[AKRowdy]

If Texas and Oklahoma win out they deserve to jump us and knock us out. They have very tough schedules coming up and neither team is very good, so that would be quite shocking.

If Texas does beat Georgia, I think to hedge we just have to root for GT to win out and knock Georgia out of the playoffs. GT can be the ACC champs and Texas can replace Georgia in the playoffs.

Are you serious? You can’t watch both Texas and Oklahoma and see that they aren’t good.

 

[Dale]

Are you serious? You can’t watch both Texas and Oklahoma and see that they aren’t good.

Not sure which side you’re arguing for but if Texas beats UGA and Texas A&M they will certainly have become a good team to do so. I don’t think either has been particularly good so far though. Mateer isn’t good and Arch can’t throw it past 5 yards

 

[LifelongFan]

Are you serious? You can’t watch both Texas and Oklahoma and see that they aren’t good.

They both have terrible QBs which is why Oklahoma's best win is a terrible Michigan team and Texas's best win is a gimmick team full of 2 stars. Oklahoma defense hits really hard and that's it. Texas lost to Florida and had to sneak by Kentucky. Both teams stink.

 

[AKRowdy]

They both have terrible QBs which is why Oklahoma's best win is a terrible Michigan team and Texas's best win is a gimmick team full of 2 stars. Oklahoma defense hits really hard and that's it. Texas lost to Florida and had to sneak by Kentucky. Both teams stink.

100% agree. One thing that gives me hope with the committee is that it seems they truly are going off of the eye ball test, with looking at some advanced metrics.

 

[AKRowdy]

Not sure which side you’re arguing for but if Texas beats UGA and Texas A&M they will certainly have become a good team to do so. I don’t think either has been particularly good so far though. Mateer isn’t good and Arch can’t throw it past 5 yards

Arguing that Texas and Oklahoma are not good teams.

 

[Bane]

Not sure which side you’re arguing for but if Texas beats UGA and Texas A&M they will certainly have become a good team to do so. I don’t think either has been particularly good so far though. Mateer isn’t good and Arch can’t throw it past 5 yards

Agreed. Neither Texas or OU are particularly great imo, but if they win out with their remaining schedules they will be in and they would deserve to be in. The good news for us is I don't think either team is good enough to win out.

 

[IrishLax]

Speaking of Utah, the brand bias to ND complaints are funny in that regard. This is Utah’s resume: 2 Top 10 losses. 0 ranked wins. I haven’t seen a single complaint registered Utah’s way on being #13 ahead of every ACC school and many B1G and SEC 2 loss teams. Utah brand bias?

Agree with you 100% that "brand bias" is a fake thing. What the committee is doing -- and I don't know why the talking heads are lying about it -- is that they are looking at efficiency metrics and other advanced stats. They are looking at things like game control, SP+, FPI, whatever... we don't know exactly what they are weighing and how much... but they are looking at how good you are playing not just W/L record or strength of schedule.

Utah has really strong efficiency metrics. So does Notre Dame. Utah and Notre Dame are basically tied in SP+ and different efficiency metrics slightly favor one versus the other. Utah's SOS (#53) is much worse than ND though.

 

[IrishBryan77]

yes

I'm still thinking about the pumpkin. 🤣

 

[IrishLax]

When you look at their rankings, they basically breakdown like this:

Tier 1 -- really good undefeated teams
Ohio State
Indiana
Texas A&M

Tier 2 -- Strong resume 1-loss teams and BYU
Bama
Georgia
Ole Miss
BYU

Tier 3 -- Strong metrics 2-loss teams and weaker resume 1-loss teams
Texas Tech
Oregon
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
Utah

Tier 4 -- Teams with flaws but decent records that mostly control their own destiny
Virginia
Louisville
Vanderbilt
Georgia Tech
Miami
USC

Tier 5 -- Teams that need some help but are still technically alive
Iowa though everyone else... they don't really care about sorting these teams right now

Within each tier, they seem to have sorted by whoever they think is "best"... they aren't comparing Miami with Notre Dame because they aren't in the same tier. They are sorting Bama-Georgia-Ole Miss based on their head to haad results. They are sorting the Tier 4 ACC schools against each other. They are sorting Texas and Oklahoma based on head-to-head.

 

[SportsingHard]

Parity among those with money is certainly higher than it was. G5's have less money, fewer alumni, fewer engaged alumni, and their best programs all joined the Big 12 and ACC.

Yeah, but the portal's a thing, too. Lots of former P4 talent in the G5.

 

[IrishLax]

If Georgia loses it's either to Texas or GT, both of which would probably jump us in that case. I think we need Oregon to lose and the TT and BYU is an inevitable spot for us.

Maybe Florida can pull through against Ole Miss. Bama also has LSU, Oklahoma, and an unhinged Auburn team. But I think Bama would need 2 losses to fall behind us.

Yes, our big risk is ACC chaos that somehow makes them a multi-bid league. The easiest version of that is GT beats Georgia then loses ACC Championship game.

I am extremely skeptical that there is a scenario where 5x SEC schools get in and ND gets left out, but the clearest version would be Texas beats Texas A&M + Georgia and Oklahoma beats both Bama + Missouri. Both (especially Texas) would have strong cases to jump Notre Dame and it's near impossible that Bama/TAMU would drop far enough in the rankings to get left out.

 

[rtrn2glory]

I honestly think based off of last night we are completely fine to get in as long as we win out. Now they only thing that we need to pay attention to is where we fall in the bracket. I wouldn't be mad getting to 7-6 seed and play at home with the chance to play anybody, but Ohio St in the quarters.

 

[Green Mountains]

If each of Texas and Oklahoma beat Georgia and Alabama, there is a reasonable likihood that a 2 loss Alabama and a 2 loss Georgia team, not playing in the SEC championship game both drop behind ND. TX and OK might jump above, but 'Bama and Georgia drop behind. The committee has made it clear, ND is ascending. Each of Bama and Georgia would no longer strong winning streaks.

Would Alabama's losses (FSU and Oklahoma) be better than ND's losses? Helz no. Georgia's losses (in this scenario - Bama and TX) feel like better loses than ND's. In this scenerio, Georgia stays ahead of ND and Bama falls behind along with the loser of TX Tech and BYU.

I think it's not likely as Oklahoma is going to get boat raced by Alabama...and Texas isn't beating both Georgia and A&M. If Texas does run the table, it has a better resume than ND.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I honestly think based off of last night we are completely fine to get in as long as we win out. Now they only thing that we need to pay attention to is where we fall in the bracket. I wouldn't be mad getting to 7-6 seed and play at home with the chance to play anybody, but Ohio St in the quarters.

I didn’t think it was possible, so I’m still in JUST GET IN AND IM HAPPY mode.


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[SportsingHard]

 

[NDMatt91]

I assume we want Texas Tech to beat BYU, right?

 

[SportsingHard]

I assume we want Texas Tech to beat BYU, right?

I suppose the desirable thing would be that the highest ranked Big 12 team wins the Big 12 Championship. I'd love for that to be BYU.

 

[irishjim]

We definitely want Miami to lose again

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Agree with you 100% that "brand bias" is a fake thing. What the committee is doing -- and I don't know why the talking heads are lying about it -- is that they are looking at efficiency metrics and other advanced stats. They are looking at things like game control, SP+, FPI, whatever... we don't know exactly what they are weighing and how much... but they are looking at how good you are playing not just W/L record or strength of schedule.

Utah has really strong efficiency metrics. So does Notre Dame. Utah and Notre Dame are basically tied in SP+ and different efficiency metrics slightly favor one versus the other. Utah's SOS (#53) is much worse than ND though.

Which makes sense from the CFP Committee's perspective. They want those early CFP games to be as competitive as possible. Blowouts aren't good for ratings.

 

[burmafrd1944]

We win out and we are in
no way that does not happen

we would be on a 10 game win streak; doubtful any others will do better except maybe OSU
The Committee has shown in the past that the hot teams get an edge
early season losses are always discounted

and there is so much carnage that I am betting there might be only 3 or 4 teams with one loss or better

There are not going to be 8 two loss teams that are considered better than us

 

[Old Man Mike]

There don't have to be. There are five automatic bids. Several of those don't have to be considered better than us. I believe that we're in too, but this is not grade school math --- there are many complications and commentators are pointing them out. It's all the SECs underneath A&M, Alabama, and Georgia plus the Tech/BYU thing that should concern us. 3B1Gs+2Big12s+1ACC+1Little+3 automatic SECs=10 --> only TWO spots left --> Us vs the rest of the SEC. ND vs Vandy, TX, OK, MO, TN. If there are TWO Big12s, we need to beat out FOUR of those SECs. ... not a certainty. It is my feeling that we outrank Vandy, TN, MO, and OK at least. TX is kind of an overrated media darling because of the overrrated QB. Vandy is an obvious darling. If one of Tech or BYU are gone, it's easier.

 

[BeatSC]

I'm a man. I'm 40.

Those are some stressful 30 hours I would think.

 

[stlnd01]

There don't have to be. There are five automatic bids. Several of those don't have to be considered better than us. I believe that we're in too, but this is not grade school math --- there are many complications and commentators are pointing them out. It's all the SECs underneath A&M, Alabama, and Georgia plus the Tech/BYU thing that should concern us. 3B1Gs+2Big12s+1ACC+1Little+3 automatic SECs=10 --> only TWO spots left --> Us vs the rest of the SEC. ND vs Vandy, TX, OK, MO, TN. If there are TWO Big12s, we need to beat out FOUR of those SECs. ... not a certainty. It is my feeling that we outrank Vandy, TN, MO, and OK at least. TX is kind of an overrated media darling because of the overrrated QB. Vandy is an obvious darling. If one of Tech or BYU are gone, it's easier.

Vandy will have a hard time jumping us now with two losses, even if they beat Tennessee. B/c that means Tennessee falls out of the rankings. Vandy's best win would be... Mizzou?

Texas or Oklahoma, should they win out, would probably deserve to jump us. But given their remaining schedules and how they've played thus far, that seems unlikely.

That leaves the Big 12. If BYU and Texas Tech split in the "wrong" way, they could both land in the playoffs, possibly with one-loss BYU ahead of us. Even then we make it as long as Texas and Oklahoma both finish behind us. The biggest risk to us not making the playoffs is our own team losing a game.