2024 College Football Playoffs

[ACamp1900]

You’d think if ratings is all they care about they’d want the big names in long enough to get more than one game out of any of them instead of clustering them in the first round,… and if ND is a ratings draw they’d want them in the easiest line to the semis possible. Also, they want the most big and sec teams possible but don’t want any of them to play each other?? Ok

 

[sixstar]

I'm not dismissing the effect of cold weather on an Alabama or Georgia, but I think most of you are greatly overestimating its effect on southern teams. Southerners who live above the Florida state line see plenty of freezing temps every winter. Those players who grew up in the South have spent lots of time outdoors hunting, working, and playing in bitterly cold weather. They won't enjoy it and aren't as used to it as guys from up north, but it's not going to be some "Oh my god! What's this white stuff?" thing either. Remember, these guys do just fine playing in cold weather cities in the NFL.

It was in the 30s last night all across the Southeast. It was in the teens in parts of East Tennessee.

 

[Huntr]

We are most likely to finish in 4th place after the B1G championship game and will be the 5th seed and play the winner of the Big12

The guys I follow on social media who independently model this stuff (and who almost impeccably predict the CFP rankings) also believe ND will end up with the 5 after penn state loses to Oregon.

Who ND plays depends on the CC games.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

I think Penn State loses their next two games and I don't really care who they play in the second one. They'll get beat. Who, when, where and why won't really matter.

 

[IrishLax]

So this also likely means SMU is totally screwed if they lose to Clemson, right?

Yeah this situation is the one where I think it's murky. If PSU loses to Oregon and SMU loses to Clemson I'm not sure exactly what happens. But if PSU wins and SMU loses I 100% think SMU is getting bounced. It's implied very strongly that the committee is actively looking to put Bama in and limit the ACC to 1 team and may have even tried to do that with Miami vs SMU kicking out whoever lost.

I think there is a roundabout scenario where both PSU and SMU lose and they have to move both down to look "consistent"... and then you end up with Clemson either at #11 headed to Penn State (?) with Bama at #12 headed to #5 ND or this is maybe one of the very few scenarios where ND ends up playing someone other than Bama and instead hosts Clemson at #12. I don't know. You can only put your finger on the scale so much, and if you have total chaos (Texas loses to Georgia again, SMU loses to Clemson, PSU beats Oregon) I don't know if anyone really knows what they'll do except try to make sure you don't have SEC vs SEC or the equivalent conference matchups in the first round. It seemed crystal clear that they are going to go out of their way to avoid rematches or intra-conference playoff games if at all possible.

 

[ACamp1900]

I’ll add that for a decade I’ve been screaming that none of these playoffs formats having anything to do with ‘real champs’ or ‘most deserving’ and everything to do with money in the pockets of espn and the like and for years I was dismissed as crazy. Frustrating to see everyone now just shrug and be like, ‘well yeah’. I’d like to go back in time and just undo all of this

 

[IrishSpartan]

I’ll add that for a decade I’ve been screaming that none of these playoffs formats having anything to do with ‘real champs’ or ‘most deserving’ and everything to do with money in the pockets of espn and the like and for years I was dismissed as crazy. Frustrating to see everyone now just shrug and be like, ‘well yeah’. I’d like to go back in time and just undo all of this

your back and its not a comment about food

 

[pumpdog20]

It was in the 30s last night all across the Southeast. It was in the teens in parts of East Tennessee.

But what was in Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and Southern California where all their players are from?

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

If we see Texas and UGA three times in a season, I'm officially giving up on the idea of America.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

If you don't want Bama, just root against Boise St. That's the cleanest way to avoid them.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

It was in the 30s last night all across the Southeast. It was in the teens in parts of East Tennessee.

Cold just means more in the north.

Am I doing it right?

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Any word about if our game will be on that Friday night? Thanks for the info.

John Brice & others have reported that the committee wants ND playing on Friday night so it sounds like that is what we can expect

 

[BoredIrish]

When Bama has looked bad, its because they have crapped the bed. Bama in the playoffs would have a new lease on life and would have nothing to lose. The chances of them pulling a stinker under those circumstances is low.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

When Bama has looked bad, its because they have crapped the bed. Bama in the playoffs would have a new lease on life and would have nothing to lose. The chances of them pulling a stinker under those circumstances is low.

How do you know they crapped the bed vs just not being very good?

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Oregon is only a 3.5 point favorite right now.

Franklin desperately needs a big game win, but it's probably best for Penn State to craft a game plan to keep the game close so it'll be interesting to see how they approach it. If Penn State sticks with the run to chew clock and shorten the game, their defense is good enough to prevent big plays and force Oregon to grind out long drives. I think it'll be a one possession game that Oregon controls start to finish.

Hopefully Franklin takes some chances and Lanning belts his their ass.

I think this is the most likely scenario. PSU probably has to get blown out to drop below ND & I don’t see that happening. Also brings up the cynical conspiratorial question as to whether an opponent would keep the score down to avoid the optics of a blowout to ensure their league counterpart didn’t get pushed out of the CFP. I know that PSU isn’t in that scenario but it’ll come up at some point in the future where the loser of the CCG cannot afford a lopsided loss. They’ll continue to give benefit of the doubt to losers of CCG so as not to punish them for playing extra game…assuming it’s competitive.

 

[IrishTusker]

SB weather is significantly different from other northern locations for two reasons. First, the windchill is worse than other parts of "the north" because it is flat. PA, WV, New England, parts of the west, etc., are mostly not flat, although obviously OH, WI, MN, IL, and the rest of IN mostly are. The windchill in South Bend drops the temperature 10 degrees rather than, say, 5 degrees elsewhere.

Second, because of SB's position relative to Lake Michigan there is a lot of "lake effect" snow. For example, in Columbus, it snows an average of 5.6 days in December and the average total snowfall for the month is 5.1 inches. In South Bend, the numbers are 9 and 13.7, respectively.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Did you watch the Green Bay vs Miami game on Thanksgiving? That Miami team was absolutely miserable in the cold of Green Bay.

Miami weather is a totally different thing. Tuscaloosa and Athens and Knoxville are closer to Chicago than to Miami. Miami is subtropical and almost never sees actual cold weather. Those other places routinely get very cold throughout the winter, and sub-zero temps happen occasionally.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Did you watch the Green Bay vs Miami game on Thanksgiving? That Miami team was absolutely miserable in the cold of Green Bay.

Miami practices in 80+ degree weather the entire season so their players have acclimated to that w/ little expectation of playing in colder weather due to the prevalence of domed stadiums. Of course there’s a handful of exceptions in Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, NY. Point is that you can’t compare Miami winter weather to winter weather in the southeast/Texas.

The only two ND opponents I’ve seen adversely affected by wintry weather was Miami in the 2010 Sun Bowl & FSU in a November game in South Bend. I wouldn’t pin your hopes on a UGA, Texas or Bama folding b/c of snow and 30 degree temps. Sure there will be some WR that are miserable but for the most part I don’t think it plays the factor so many fans are assuming. They are assuming it b/c southern teams rarely travel north for OOC gams in November which I get.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Just win baby!

The bitter cold wind on a December night means ND isn't attempting FGs anyways. IDGAF who's in town. Lets ride!

 

[Irish#1]

 

[arrowryan]

None of the 3 loss SEC teams deserve to be in. It’s also absolute bullshit that SMU could be left out if they lose on Saturday. Did Warde Manuel not say multiple times that a team shouldn’t be punished if they lose their conference championship?

Alabama has gotten the benefit of the doubt in back to back years now. They should’ve put 6 feet under by the committee when a .500 Oklahoma team curb stomped them.

But, with that being said, Alabama is absolutely good enough to get hot at the right time and make some noise.

The regular season results have to matter.

 

[sixstar]

But what was in Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and Southern California where all their players are from?

Yesterday, it was a low of:
27 degrees in Tuscaloosa, AL
27 degrees in Athens, GA
35 degrees in Dallas, TX

 

[MNIrishman]

SB weather is significantly different from other northern locations for two reasons. First, the windchill is worse than other parts of "the north" because it is flat. PA, WV, New England, parts of the west, etc., are mostly not flat, although obviously OH, WI, MN, IL, and the rest of IN mostly are. The windchill in South Bend drops the temperature 10 degrees rather than, say, 5 degrees elsewhere.

Second, because of SB's position relative to Lake Michigan there is a lot of "lake effect" snow. For example, in Columbus, it snows an average of 5.6 days in December and the average total snowfall for the month is 5.1 inches. In South Bend, the numbers are 9 and 13.7, respectively.

The air is typically very humid all winter, as well. Same reason for the lake effect snow---fetch from Lake Michigan.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

I miss Coach Leach

 

[MNIrishman]

This is the statistical delta between the two cities as we enter December. I hope the "freezing" vs "not freezing" aspect will make a difference.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Meh. There is a big difference between a southern guy that moves up north and begins spending time in the cold and it not having a huge affect on him and a southern guy that lives in the south and goes into cold weather for one single event. Living in the cold helps you acclimate to it know matter where you are from.

Did you watch the Green Bay vs Miami game on Thanksgiving? That Miami team was absolutely miserable in the cold of Green Bay.

No to mention the Dolphins were playing good football and winners of three straight heading into that one.

Tuscaloosa is obviously not the same climate as South Beach, but for Bishop to act like his guys will be "fine" playing in sub 30 degree temps with windchill likely in the teens...yeah, that's not something Bama guys are used to. They rarely play football games that even sniff the Mason-Dixon Line.

 

[MNIrishman]

Here's what it looks like with Miami added: And here's average wind speed: It looks like the wind chill delta would likely be massive and would amplify the known temperature delta.

 

[ab2cmiller]

What are the dotted lines?

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

I’ve had the opportunity to live in a few different places, central Florida, South Bend, Minnesota, Seattle… I have no scientific rationale for this, but 30 degrees feels different in all those places. Hell, even Indy 30 is different than South Bend 30.

that said, I don’t think it matters. I think ND is the better team, regardless of environs. This isn’t a Saban Bama team anymore. ND is probably 10 points better regardless of location, provided Leonard doesn’t make any early season dipstick throws.

 

[Bishop2b5]

The air is typically very humid all winter, as well. Same reason for the lake effect snow---fetch from Lake Michigan.

Stop trying to make fetch happen! It's not going to happen!