2024 College Football Playoffs

[calvegas04]

ND would be favored by 3.5 over Bama.

Favored by a field goal you say...

 

[IrishLax]

Favored by a field goal you say...

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

ND would be favored by 3.5 over Bama.

That’s home advantage plus weather. Basically a pickem.

 

[NDpendent]

Based on what???

3 common opponents, but we only beat 2 of them by more than psu. Which only makes it even worse imo

Not sure who the other common opponent was but we beat Purdue be 20 more points then they did. Penn State needed the overtime and the zebras to beat USC and we dominated them.

Again Im not sure who the third is

 

[rtrn2glory]

2 week forecasts are showing highs of 37-40 degrees 3 days prior


What the shit... we need it *****COLD******

To kids that grew up and live in the South East.... That's freezing you them. Shit I'm Midwest born and bread so I'd even be layered up lol

 

[LifelongFan]

This is kind of where I'm at. I don't think we can actually win 4 games in a row without 1) a better passing attack with better WRs 2) BenMo not getting hurt. So I care less about our "draw" and am more like "fuck it, if Bama wants to come to ND in December that sounds like a hell of an opportunity to make a statement."

I also think there's something to playing a tough team at home in the first round if you want to win a championship. If Bama is really good and scary, I'd rather play them at home in the cold than in the semifinals in a dome in the South after they've had a chance to feel themselves and get momentum. Knock them out early and who knows who the semifinal opponent ends up being. It could be Small Game James or a Cinderella.

 

[ThePiombino]

Based on what???

We're better than them in just about every data point other than record. We hold a 14pt margin of victory over our sole common opponent, whereas they won by 3...in OT. With records being the same, how should they be ranked ahead of us?

 

[NDMD]

We're better than them in just about every data point other than record. We hold a 14pt margin of victory over our sole common opponent, whereas they won by 3...in OT. With records being the same, how should they be ranked ahead of us?

You'll be a lot less stressed when you realize this is not a true playoff, but a B10/SEC invitational.

 

[stlnd01]

We're better than them in just about every data point other than record. We hold a 14pt margin of victory over our sole common opponent, whereas they won by 3...in OT. With records being the same, how should they be ranked ahead of us?

There's no objective reason why Penn State should be ranked ahead of us right now. But also aside from beating USC by more than they did, we haven't done a ton to warrant jumping ahead of them. It's not like we beat a top 10 team either. So it's just been priors/status quo for weeks.
That'll change Saturday though, when they either gain a big win or take a second loss. Hopefully it's the latter and not close.

 

[ColoradoIrish]

Not sure who the other common opponent was but we beat Purdue be 20 more points then they did. Penn State needed the overtime and the zebras to beat USC and we dominated them.

Again Im not sure who the third is

Miami of Ohio was the third shared opponent.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

All ND had to do was not lose to NIU.

Best they'd still be is 5th if they had.

That's my guess based on the logic of these seedings.

 

[NDpendent]

Miami of Ohio was the third shared opponent.

They didn't play Miami

 

[ColoradoIrish]

They didn't play Miami

Thanks for the correction, stupid block M's on ESPN look the same. Got Maryland and Miami of Ohio mixed up when taking a quick glance at schedules. Mea culpa

 

[Irish#1]

Bama has talent, but with three losses, it isn't the juggernaut of old.
They have speed, but the speed of our D is on par with anyone else in the country.
Milroe runs hot and cold. If we're getting pressure he's not going to kill us.
Milroe isn't Caleb Williams and Golden found a way to hold him in check. With a couple of weeks to prepare I expect Al will be ready.
Bama got smoked by Oklahoma who ran the ball down their throats. Oklahoma a 6-6 team.
If the weather is in the 30's or lower Bama is going to be looking for the heated benches.
USC has talent and speed, yet ND's talent won out.
MF has had ND in playoff mode since NIU. I doubt there would be a let down now.

 

[stlnd01]

Bama has talent, but with three losses, it isn't the juggernaut of old.
They have speed, but the speed of our D is on par with anyone else in the country.
Milroe runs hot and cold. If we're getting pressure he's not going to kill us.
Milroe isn't Caleb Williams and Golden found a way to hold him in check. With a couple of weeks to prepare I expect Al will be ready.
Bama got smoked by Oklahoma who ran the ball down their throats. Oklahoma a 6-6 team.
If the weather is in the 30's or lower Bama is going to be looking for the heated benches.
USC has talent and speed, yet ND's talent won out.
MF has had ND in playoff mode since NIU. I doubt there would be a let down now.

All true. And I certainly think we can beat them. But I'd still rather play any of the other teams in the mix for bottom third of the bracket. There's a reason we'd only be favored by 3.5.

 

[IrishLax]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

 

[NDRock]

Not really a surprise on any of it. I assumed they would try to match things up favorable for ratings.

 

[NDMD]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

That all makes sense. The CFP is about making the most compelling postseason possible under the guise of a playoff. ND vs Bama would do WAY more $$$$$ than ND vs ASU.

Bummer as it's a riskier game for us but is what it is. Bama has the name recognition and Saban isn't there anymore. A W would go a long way to changing the casual narrative.

 

[Irish#1]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

Given they want an ND / Bama matchup, you have to figure the networks are applying the pressure to make this happen. It's always about the money.

 

[NDLS_USMC]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon....

You are hereby back in the community good graces. Continue the good work!

And thank you!

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

This has been an inevitability for years. The process has been expedited with conference realignment and the playoff. We're going there whether anyone wants to or not.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I'm not dismissing the effect of cold weather on an Alabama or Georgia, but I think most of you are greatly overestimating its effect on southern teams. Southerners who live above the Florida state line see plenty of freezing temps every winter. Those players who grew up in the South have spent lots of time outdoors hunting, working, and playing in bitterly cold weather. They won't enjoy it and aren't as used to it as guys from up north, but it's not going to be some "Oh my god! What's this white stuff?" thing either. Remember, these guys do just fine playing in cold weather cities in the NFL.

 

[GowerND11]

Bring back the BCS as how we determine this. The biases, as shown by LAX, are getting in the way. It's becoming more and more about sports "entertainment" than sports. Sickens me.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

Any word about if our game will be on that Friday night? Thanks for the info.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

This has been an inevitability for years. The process has been expedited with conference realignment and the playoff. We're going there whether anyone wants to or not.

I think the continuing existence of the ACC is the final obstacle. Somewhat ironically, FSU's collapse may help keep it together a little longer.

 

[MPClinton22]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

So this also likely means SMU is totally screwed if they lose to Clemson, right?

 

[ab2cmiller]

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

This is undoubtedly good news for ND going forward. Focus on eyeballs and revenue mean that if ND is ever a borderline team, they will almost certainly get in.

 

[NDpendent]

We are most likely to finish in 4th place after the B1G championship game and will be the 5th seed and play the winner of the Big12

 

[NDohio]

I'm not dismissing the effect of cold weather on an Alabama or Georgia, but I think most of you are greatly overestimating its effect on southern teams. Southerners who live above the Florida state line see plenty of freezing temps every winter. Those players who grew up in the South have spent lots of time outdoors hunting, working, and playing in bitterly cold weather. They won't enjoy it and aren't as used to it as guys from up north, but it's not going to be some "Oh my god! What's this white stuff?" thing either. Remember, these guys do just fine playing in cold weather cities in the NFL.

Meh. There is a big difference between a southern guy that moves up north and begins spending time in the cold and it not having a huge affect on him and a southern guy that lives in the south and goes into cold weather for one single event. Living in the cold helps you acclimate to it know matter where you are from.

Did you watch the Green Bay vs Miami game on Thanksgiving? That Miami team was absolutely miserable in the cold of Green Bay.

 

[NorthDakota]

All true. And I certainly think we can beat them. But I'd still rather play any of the other teams in the mix for bottom third of the bracket. There's a reason we'd only be favored by 3.5.

Being favored by 3.5, in my opinion, means Vegas would expect Notre Dame to win by more than that or do i got that backwards?

I have some juicy gossip / inside info for the first time in a blue moon... from an AD at a MAC school who is extremely connected to the committee:
*The committee is intentionally angling for the Bama @ ND matchup and will do whatever they can to get that matchup. If Penn State loses, they will either drop Penn State to #6 and leapfrog the Big 12 champ to #11 or they will keep everyone put. If there is total chaos, their hand may be forced, but they want to keep the matchup if at all possible and have spent weeks aiming for it. They also want to send an SEC team to Ohio State as the other prime time game (originally they expected OSU to beat Michigan and would send an SEC team to Penn State).
*The committee will if at all possible avoid SEC vs SEC or Big Ten vs Big Ten in the first round. They will put their finger on the scale and jerry-rig the rankings as necessary to ensure this if they can.
*There is an unspoken agreement to get 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and SEC into the field each year. Everyone understands this, and it was the only way to get a deal done while preserving a "seat at the table" for the other conferences. The rankings are done in a way to ensure you have (if possible) 8 teams from the SEC/Big Ten in the field.
*They are looking into the "byes" for next year. They wanted to incentivize playing conference championship games and it was part of larger compromises but it was designed assuming five power conferences and the committee thinks it really makes their job harder. Everyone is aware that the 4/5 bracket is completely busted right now, this isn't just fans and talking heads noticing it's "easier" relative to the #1 seed. Technically the agreement is still good for 2025 though so it would take full consensus to change things which may not happen.
*Expect the system to be totally blown up in 2026. Not just a potential move to a 16 team playoff, but also potentially major changes to how football is done overall. The G5 schools are worried about being entirely excluded and put in a subdivision closer to FCS. Like you may see true three-tiered college football system. He said the main thing they're angling for is financial.

If the G5 gets excluded they will be an unsustainable FCS with bloated expenses.

Sagarin has Boise ranked 36. South Dakota State is 37. UNLV and North Dakota State are 44 and 45. Montana State and Army are 62 and 63.

Those G5 schools have athletics budgets over twice the size of FCS schools, and absent playoff access, how is it remotely justifiable?