41 is a pretty low scoring game. You realize that’s the combined total for both teams, right? You’ll rarely see lines lower than that. It’s the third lowest of the weekend.
I'm well aware.
Given ND's offensive struggles, poor OL play, and new QB and the fact that they've only averaged 15 ppg so far this year, I just don't see them scoring more than 24 or 27 points against Cal, who has a decent defense in their own right.
Cal's offense isn't great either and will be going against ND's strength (although admittedly, hasn't looked spectacular so far this year). I think ND holds them below 20.
I think ND has to score in the 30s for this game to hit the over and I'm not confident it'll happen given what we've seen so far this year. I genuinely hope I'm wrong, because it'll likely mean a ND victory, but I'm in "show me" mode now because so far, they haven't shown anyone anything.
Edit: For the record, Vegas always knows, so I believe the line is probably just right. I guess what I'm saying is that my gut tells me the probability of <41 has to be higher than the probability of >41. For example, in my above scenario, if ND wins 27-14, they'll cover the spread and push the O/U. I think that outcome is highly likely. I think our defense plays more inspired, holding them to less than 14 though, which means ND better score 30+....and they haven't shown they're capable of doing that yet (especially against teams with pulse on defense).