General team info

[pumpdog20]

Isn't the Over/Under for Vegas at 9.5? Seems much more reasonable.

If Tyler Buchner pans out this is an 11-1 team. Probably finishing the season on an 11-game win streak, though I'd give a kidney to have them beat Ohio State this year.

IMO percent chance of winning each game...

at Ohio State - 25%
vs Marshall - 99%
vs California - 90%
at North Carolina - 80%
BYE
vs BYU 70%
vs Stanford 75%
vs UNLV 95%
at Syracuse 95%
vs Clemson 55%
at Navy 99%
vs Boston College 80%
at USC 60%

Draft kings was 8.5 last week

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

The people at PFF smoke crack.

It's pretty damn head scratching but they've had us at like 7.5-8.5 wins each oft he past three years and we've shattered their questionable win totals each time. I wouldn't read into it too much and Vegas certainly doesn't agree with PFF's analysis. I'd bet my house they win more than 6.5 games and sleep soundly at night lol

 

[du Lac]

It's pretty damn head scratching but they've had us at like 7.5-8.5 wins each oft he past three years and we've shattered their questionable win totals each time. I wouldn't read into it too much and Vegas certainly doesn't agree with PFF's analysis. I'd bet my house they win more than 6.5 games and sleep soundly at night lol

I can’t help but wonder if there’s a bit of racism in the mix with PFF. How can this talented a team lose 6-7 games with so many puppies on the schedule unless you think the coach is totally inept? 9-3 or 10-2 is far more likely. MF will be more than fine.

 

[KizerWilhelm]

I can’t help but wonder if there’s a bit of racism in the mix with PFF. How can this talented a team lose 6-7 games with so many puppies on the schedule unless you think the coach is totally inept? 9-3 or 10-2 is far more likely. MF will be more than fine.

Even if you think PFF is undervaluing Marcus Freeman, why would you chalk it up to racism rather than just that he's a first-time HC?

I think "we're not sold on Marcus Freeman" is a perfectly defensible position, even if I don't agree.

 

[notredomer23]

I can’t help but wonder if there’s a bit of racism in the mix with PFF. How can this talented a team lose 6-7 games with so many puppies on the schedule unless you think the coach is totally inept? 9-3 or 10-2 is far more likely. MF will be more than fine.

This is a take that you see on message board geniuses.

 

[du Lac]

Even if you think PFF is undervaluing Marcus Freeman, why would you chalk it up to racism rather than just that he's a first-time HC?

I think "we're not sold on Marcus Freeman" is a perfectly defensible position, even if I don't agree.

7 losses? I’m not a race card type (admittedly I’m a card carrying republican) but if Venables were named head coach would they be predicting 6-7 losses a year after going 11-1 and with a very very talented team? I’m not saying it’s definitely race related, but the extremism seems sus.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

7 losses? I’m not a race card type but if Venables were named head coach would they be predicting 6-7 losses a year after going 11-1 and with a very very talented team?

Although I certainly don’t agree with PFF’s assessment, I think the depth and/or proven commodity at WR and QB is a big factor in PFF’s analytics……not just the inexperienced coach(es). You use Venables as an example but even he has quite a bit more coaching experience than MF.

 

[du Lac]

Although I certainly don’t agree with PFF’s assessment, I think the depth and/or proven commodity at WR and QB is a big factor in PFF’s analytics……not just the inexperienced coach(es). You use Venables as an example but even he has quite a bit more coaching experience than MF.

If they said 4-5 I’d say stupid. 6-7 makes me look for an ulterior motive/bias, whatever jt may be. Even if Buchner lost the job to Pyne, we should only lose 4 games max.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

If they said 4-5 I’d say stupid. 6-7 makes me look for an alter I or motive, whatever jt may be.

I understand what you are saying……all the analytical models have flaws and this is most likely another example of that.

 

[du Lac]

To get to six losses you’d have to lose to Cal, BC, and NC on top of USC, Clemson, and OSU. To get to 7 you’d have to also lose to Stanford, Marshall, Navy, or UNLV. It’s not even remotely possible to get to 7. 6 would be an epic implosion, torn up locker room, dozens of injuries, inept coaches. Unless you hate ND, have no idea what you’re talking about, or you really really don’t like MF. MFs first game was a loss, but he also went up by 21 on a should’ve been playoff team in Ok St. and laid an egg. That group isn’t losing 4 games with AG as DC and HH as OL coach and several preseason AA’s.

 

[KizerWilhelm]

To get to six losses you’d have to lose to Cal, BC, and NC on top of USC, Clemson, and OSU. To get to 7 you’d have to also lose to Stanford, Marshall, Navy, or UNLV. It’s not even remotely possible to get to 7. 6 would be an epic implosion, torn up locker room, dozens of injuries, inept coaches. Unless you hate ND, have no idea what you’re talking about, or you really really don’t like MF. MFs first game was a loss, but he also went up by 21 on a should’ve been playoff team in Ok St. and laid an egg. That team isn’t losing 4 games with AG as DC and HH as OL coach.

First of all, you're leaving off BYU. That's a pretty losable game.

But more importantly, I think you have to look at this from the perspective of someone who has not been following Notre Dame religiously, does not care about secondhand reporting about how Merriweather and Buchner are looking in camp, and is working off a model that they tweak to be accurate across the board and not just specific to one team.

The facts are simply this:
- ND's head coach is a 36-year-old with 0-1 record.
- The model does not particularly care about Jack Coan putting up those 21 points in the game that Freeman lost.
- The model probably does care that we lost because one guy kept getting burned in the secondary, and oh, that guy is coming back, and starting.
- The model probably does care that we were a hair away from losing to FSU, Toledo, and Virginia Tech last year, and that our strength of schedule was actually rather middling, and that we lost to the only two teams on our schedule who finished the year ranked.
- The 2023 recruiting class was not yet born the last time Al Golden was a DC. HH is one position coach, for a position they're probably factoring as a strength anyway. It's not obvious either should factor that much in the model, and that Golden should even be considered a plus in the first place.
- Tyler Buchner is the presumptive starting QB and is, in their eyes, the 46th best QB in the country. His biggest flaw in the games he's played so far has been accuracy and decision-making, which is a pretty terrible combination with...
- Our returning WR depth is awful. No need to relitigate.

If we ND fans looked at this state of affairs for any team not called Notre Dame, would anyone blame anyone else for thinking an implosion could be imminent?

More importantly, even if you disagreed, would you reeeeally jump to "I see, you must be a racist!"

 

[NDPhilly]

Any time a talking head says something disparaging about ND we should just call them racist and get them taken off the air. Not a bad plan.

 

[du Lac]

Any time a talking head says something disparaging about ND we should just call them racist and get them taken off the air. Not a bad plan.

No, that’s not what I’m saying. Perhaps it was a bit extreme. But 7 losses is pathetic as a projection no matter how you spin it. It’s not like they said could happen. It was their projection. Even BYU assumes 4 losses. The other 3 habe to come from very bad teams.

 

[RDU Irish]

Any time a talking head says something disparaging about ND we should just call them racist and get them taken off the air. Not a bad plan.

Excellent payback for all those years of ND being racist for firing Ty Golfingham.

 

[du Lac]

Excellent payback for all those years of ND being racist for firing Ty Golfingham.

Or BK was racist to ESPN for yelling at a black coach.

 

[Rack Em]

Excellent payback for all those years of ND being racist for firing Ty Golfingham.

Is that racist? I can't tell anymore. Is there a resident Gen Z-er on this Board that can weigh in?

 

[Irish du Nord]

Is that racist? I can't tell anymore. Is there a resident Gen Z-er on this Board that can weigh in?

Well it’s not racist if you can prove the successor brings a decided schematic advantage

 

[RDU Irish]

Is that racist? I can't tell anymore. Is there a resident Gen Z-er on this Board that can weigh in?

ND was super racist before it was cool. Ty only got 3 years and the modern day ND standard up to that point was 5 years - I mean if Gerry Faust and Boob Davie get five years..... I don't think it was until he "led" Washington to that 0-12 season four years post ND that the last of the "ND is racist" crowd finally STFU.

WTF is a Gen Z?

 

[ab2cmiller]

ND was super racist before it was cool. Ty only got 3 years and the modern day ND standard up to that point was 5 years - I mean if Gerry Faust and Boob Davie get five years..... I don't think it was until he "led" Washington to that 0-12 season four years post ND that the last of the "ND is racist" crowd finally STFU.

WTF is a Gen Z?

I think you can identify a Gen Z by seeing if they call everyone over 40 a "Boomer".

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think you can identify a Gen Z by seeing if they call everyone over 40 a "Boomer".

Millennials love to dunk on Boomers as well. Gen Z/ Zoomers grew up with smart phones, and their minds have been irreversibly warped as a result.

 

[stlnd01]

First of all, you're leaving off BYU. That's a pretty losable game.

But more importantly, I think you have to look at this from the perspective of someone who has not been following Notre Dame religiously, does not care about secondhand reporting about how Merriweather and Buchner are looking in camp, and is working off a model that they tweak to be accurate across the board and not just specific to one team.

The facts are simply this:
- ND's head coach is a 36-year-old with 0-1 record.
- The model does not particularly care about Jack Coan putting up those 21 points in the game that Freeman lost.
- The model probably does care that we lost because one guy kept getting burned in the secondary, and oh, that guy is coming back, and starting.
- The model probably does care that we were a hair away from losing to FSU, Toledo, and Virginia Tech last year, and that our strength of schedule was actually rather middling, and that we lost to the only two teams on our schedule who finished the year ranked.
- The 2023 recruiting class was not yet born the last time Al Golden was a DC. HH is one position coach, for a position they're probably factoring as a strength anyway. It's not obvious either should factor that much in the model, and that Golden should even be considered a plus in the first place.
- Tyler Buchner is the presumptive starting QB and is, in their eyes, the 46th best QB in the country. His biggest flaw in the games he's played so far has been accuracy and decision-making, which is a pretty terrible combination with...
- Our returning WR depth is awful. No need to relitigate.

If we ND fans looked at this state of affairs for any team not called Notre Dame, would anyone blame anyone else for thinking an implosion could be imminent?

More importantly, even if you disagreed, would you reeeeally jump to "I see, you must be a racist!"

These are all true facts. What's weird about the PFF prediction is that everyone else is looking at that same set of true facts and picking us in the top 10. Personally I'd bet the middle and say we go 9-3, ranked around 15th.

 

[ulukinatme]

Excellent payback for all those years of ND being racist for firing Ty Golfingham.

Or BK was racist to ESPN for yelling at a black coach.

I'd be curious how many other blue bloods have hired two black HCs coaches in the last 20 years. The only other P5 program I can even think of that's done it is Colorado and they've actually had three, but spread out over like 5 years. Embree got canned quick, Mel Tucker got snatched by MSU after one year, and Dorrell has been there the last two.

Which brings me to my next point. Between Ty and BK, I feel it's in the program's best interest if we shut down the Warren and the Burke courses.

 

[stlnd01]

I'd be curious how many other blue bloods have hired two black HCs coaches in the last 20 years. The only other P5 program I can even think of that's done it is Colorado and they've actually had three, but spread out over like 5 years. Embree got canned quick, Mel Tucker got snatched by MSU after one year, and Dorrell has been there the last two.

Go back a little further than 20 and you have Stanford, with Ty and then Shaw (and Dennis Green before them).
Michigan State had Bobby Williams in the late 90s/early 2000s, and now Tucker 20 years later.

But yeah there sure aren't many.

 

[NDty9]

First of all, you're leaving off BYU. That's a pretty losable game.

But more importantly, I think you have to look at this from the perspective of someone who has not been following Notre Dame religiously, does not care about secondhand reporting about how Merriweather and Buchner are looking in camp, and is working off a model that they tweak to be accurate across the board and not just specific to one team.

The facts are simply this:
- ND's head coach is a 36-year-old with 0-1 record.
- The model does not particularly care about Jack Coan putting up those 21 points in the game that Freeman lost.
- The model probably does care that we lost because one guy kept getting burned in the secondary, and oh, that guy is coming back, and starting.
- The model probably does care that we were a hair away from losing to FSU, Toledo, and Virginia Tech last year, and that our strength of schedule was actually rather middling, and that we lost to the only two teams on our schedule who finished the year ranked.
- The 2023 recruiting class was not yet born the last time Al Golden was a DC. HH is one position coach, for a position they're probably factoring as a strength anyway. It's not obvious either should factor that much in the model, and that Golden should even be considered a plus in the first place.
- Tyler Buchner is the presumptive starting QB and is, in their eyes, the 46th best QB in the country. His biggest flaw in the games he's played so far has been accuracy and decision-making, which is a pretty terrible combination with...
- Our returning WR depth is awful. No need to relitigate.

If we ND fans looked at this state of affairs for any team not called Notre Dame, would anyone blame anyone else for thinking an implosion could be imminent?

More importantly, even if you disagreed, would you reeeeally jump to "I see, you must be a racist!"

Welp, you’ve deff sold me on the UNDER 8.5 ! Hahha

 

[HouseofPain]

First of all, you're leaving off BYU. That's a pretty losable game.

Any remotely decent team losing to a crap school like BYU deserves to be humiliated and run out of town. BYU hasnt recruited in the top 1000 for decades. If ND is remotely a contender, teams like BYU should be speedbumps.
I get it, question the OSU game but not a team like BYU. For crying out loud, BYU lost to frickin UAB.

 

[du Lac]

Any remotely decent team losing to a crap school like BYU deserves to be humiliated and run out of town. BYU hasnt recruited in the top 1000 for decades. If ND is remotely a contender, teams like BYU should be speedbumps.
I get it, question the OSU game but not a team like BYU. For crying out loud, BYU lost to frickin UAB.

Any loss this season not to OSU or Clemson is a coaches loss, not players.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/18301/notre-dame-2022-fall-camp-media-schedule-set

I bet the guys on the beat or excited. Way more access than most expected in Freeman's first year

 

[SouthSideChiDomer]

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/18301/notre-dame-2022-fall-camp-media-schedule-set

I bet the guys on the beat or excited. Way more access than most expected in Freeman's first year

Eh, probably not. Its only two full practices, which is the good stuff. Getting the first 5 periods seems like mostly just stretching and maybe a drill or two. All they will probably be able to tell us from that is who is injured.

Edit: This might be especially true since one of the full practices is the first practice, which IIRC, is where players can't wear pads.

The reporters might be happier about the variety of interviews after every practice.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Eh, probably not. Its only two full practices, which is the good stuff. Getting the first 5 periods seems like mostly just stretching and maybe a drill or two. All they will probably be able to tell us from that is who is injured.

ISD and Irish Illustrated both said they thought they'd be locked out after the first week or along those lines and they didn't expect much access at all. This is about average from Kelly's time so I believe they'll be happy but I'm sure they'll cover it on a future podcast and we can hear what they think.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

SIAP, but I was curious this morning so I figured I'd post here: Single game tix go on sale next Thursday, 7/28, at 6PM ET.

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