Russia Invades Ukraine

[Bishop2b5]

Seems like it.

Unfortunately, that's a pretty shitty lot in life for the Ukrainian people. And the fact that there seems to be no support, right now, of the russian people to overthrow putin. And then there's a lot of chaos to follow from that.

I'm FB friends with a Ukrainian woman whose world has been turned upside down by all this. She just bought a house a couple of years ago, has a successful business in Kiev, and now her neighborhood has been bombed. She took her mom, grandmother, and her dog and fled to Poland a few days ago, and has no idea when or if she'll be able to return, and what will be there to return to. Shitty lot for them indeed.

 

[notredomer23]

Oligarchs starting to turn on Putin.

 

[irishog77]

I'm FB friends with a Ukrainian woman whose world has been turned upside down by all this. She's just bought a house a couple of years ago, has a successful business in Kiev, and now her neighborhood has been bombed. She took her mom, grandmother, and her dog and fled to Poland a few days ago, and has no idea when or if she'll be able to return, and what will be there to return to. Shitty lot for them indeed.

I have a friend next door to Ukraine in Romania that works for IJM (although his forte is human slavery and trafficking), but he's going to be sending some links to legit places to send money for humanitarian aid. I'll share once he does.

 

[irishog77]

I'm FB friends with a Ukrainian woman whose world has been turned upside down by all this. She just bought a house a couple of years ago, has a successful business in Kiev, and now her neighborhood has been bombed. She took her mom, grandmother, and her dog and fled to Poland a few days ago, and has no idea when or if she'll be able to return, and what will be there to return to. Shitty lot for them indeed.

Also:

https://i0.wp.com/mvslim.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Im-confused-GIF.gif?fit=300,174&ssl=1

 

[bobbyok1]

I have a friend next door to Ukraine in Romania that works for IJM (although his forte is human slavery and trafficking), but he's going to be sending some links to legit places to send money for humanitarian aid. I'll share once he does.

International Justice Mission?

 

[irishog77]

International Justice Mission?

Yep

 

[bobbyok1]

Yep

GREAT Organization

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

As others have said... no, there isn't. This is important because war requires five factors in order to be considered just:

1. Just cause;
2. Last resort;
3. Declared by a proper authority;
4. Possessing right intention; and
5. Reasonable chance of success.

Ukraine undoubtedly has 1-4 here, but 5 is a problem. It's tempting to romanticize heroic last stands, but when faced with an overwhelming force and the prospect of massive civilian casualties, the right thing to do is often to surrender in the interest of saving as many lives as possible. I was pleasantly surprised to see how quickly most of the world rallied behind Ukraine's cause, but I worry that the distortions of social media may be causing many to overestimate their odds of successfully fending off the Russia invasion.

Even if they likely cannot prevent Russia from taking Ukraine, successfully holding it thereafter is a totally different game. And it's not one that Russia is equipped to win.

 

[GowerND11]

Fact:
Ukraine once possessed the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

However, the sovereign nation signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in which Russia, Britain and the U.S. committed to refrain from attacking Ukraine in exchange for the country turning over its nuclear arsenal to Russia to be dismantled.

Way to back up the written agreements Russia, UK and America!!!

The bold held their end of the deal, not sure why you even include them.

 

[ab2cmiller]

The bold held their end of the deal, not sure why you even include them.

Because part of the deal was that NATO wouldn't spread eastward towards Russia.

Nevermind, I wasn't remembering that right I guess.

 

[Irish#1]

I have a friend next door to Ukraine in Romania that works for IJM (although his forte is human slavery and trafficking), but he's going to be sending some links to legit places to send money for humanitarian aid. I'll share once he does.

When I first read that, I thought your friend was into human trafficking! lol

I'm not sure anyone thought Ukraine could realistically win this war unless they already had a massive arsenal at their disposal. All of the equipment being sent takes time to get there. With all of the companies taking their own initiatives, I do think the sanctions are going to work a little quicker than originally thought.

About five years ago I got to visit a company in the DC suburbs that manufactured drones. They were bidding on some government contracts. A couple I saw were larger than what even OMM described, but regardless they weren't built to fly or maneuver the same as a fighter jet so they are easier targets unless they are equipped with cloaking technology which sounds like the ones from Turkey.

Putin may want to siege and strangle the main cities, but unlike Grant slowly choking off Vicksburg, we have aircraft today where relief supplies can be dropped in under the guise of a UN humanitarian mission. Ukraine's best bet is to drag this out as long as possible IMO.

 

[Johannes]

Fact:
Ukraine once possessed the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

However, the sovereign nation signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in which Russia, Britain and the U.S. committed to refrain from attacking Ukraine in exchange for the country turning over its nuclear arsenal to Russia to be dismantled.

Way to back up the written agreements Russia, UK and America!!!

I hate to be that guy, but... Ukraine never had its own nuclear weapons arsenal. The weapons you reference were physically in Ukraine after their independence, but were still under Russian control as part of the former Soviet cache.

Yes, they agreed to hand them over, but it's not as if they had a ton of options and they couldn't effectively use them anyway.

FAQ on Ukraine and Nuclear Weapons

Read the answers to frequently asked questions about former Soviet nuclear weapons stationed in Ukraine.

www.icanw.org

The Budapest Memorandum also did not bar NATO from expanding eastward.

 

[NorthDakota]

When I first read that, I thought your friend was into human trafficking! lol

I'm not sure anyone thought Ukraine could realistically win this war unless they already had a massive arsenal at their disposal. All of the equipment being sent takes time to get there. With all of the companies taking their own initiatives, I do think the sanctions are going to work a little quicker than originally thought.

About five years ago I got to visit a company in the DC suburbs that manufactured drones. They were bidding on some government contracts. A couple I saw were larger than what even OMM described, but regardless they weren't built to fly or maneuver the same as a fighter jet so they are easier targets unless they are equipped with cloaking technology which sounds like the ones from Turkey.

Putin may want to siege and strangle the main cities, but unlike Grant slowly choking off Vicksburg, we have aircraft today where relief supplies can be dropped in under the guise of a UN humanitarian mission. Ukraine's best bet is to drag this out as long as possible IMO.

Not sure airdrops would be effective. The Berlin airlift was a huge deal..and that was with an airport and only supplied one city.

 

[Irish#1]

Not sure airdrops would be effective. The Berlin airlift was a huge deal..and that was with an airport and only supplied one city.

Yeah it was. The airport was somewhat "landlocked". IIRC they were flying in barely over rooftops to hit the runway. With the advancement in planes and helicopters equipped with today's technology it might not be as difficult. Having said that, Russia might have that as restricted air space at that point in time.

 

[Irish#1]

NBC is reporting that Manchin is introducing legislation to prevent importing oil from Russia. Will be interesting and telling to see if it goes anywhere.

Also mentioned that the U.S. has sent hundreds of Stinger missiles to Ukraine this week. Over 200 were sent on Monday.

 

[Rack Em]

That is why the inside Pentagon analysts refer to the US's Naval carried air and marine strike capabilities as "The Leviathan."

Funny because that's also Mrs. Wild Bill's nickname

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

While I don't suspect Ukraine is going to pull one out they absolutely haven't rolled over. The unfortunate result of this is that in the near term their major cities will likely be turned to rubble. In basically any modern war with determined defenders in major cities the only way to crush them is with overwhelming firepower. See Grozny, Fallujah, Mosul, Raqqa. All of those cities were basically moonscaped.

The interesting thing will be to see if Russia can keep in check a possible NATO backed insurgency in a country much larger and more populous than 2003 Iraq. Also Ukraine isn't such a great prize if it's infrastructure is blown to pieces. Pretty high price to pay for a country that doesn't have much in terms of natural resources other than some decent farmland.

 

[BrownerandFry]

I appreciate the support, but cannot echo your comments towards Philly.

He's a man that someday might be tested in a way he cannot comprehend right now.
He might pass. He might not ever be tested and that's ok too. It's America and everyone is created equal.

I remember being in basic training with some of the baddest men ever. Thinking that I was glad they were on my side and I'd hate to face them in a dark alley. I sized up everyone because I was forced to trust these men with everything. I wasn't afraid (too young to truly comprehend what might happen), but I was nervous that I wouldn't be able to meet their standards. Hell I was scared, but not terrified. There's a difference.
Long story short, some of the baddest guys were the ones that broke down, froze, and cried. They lost no respect amongst us, but it was eye opening. They're still my brothers, but it taught me not to judge anyone before putting them in the fire.

No one knows how they will respond when the furnace gets cranked up for real.

Me? I've been tested in a way that not everyone can say they have. I passed the test and sleep peacefully knowing that I won't freeze up if I'm ever forced to protect my family.

Well, you are free to give him a pass.

But, simply, He does not know what He does not know.

I'll bet he's neither Ukranian nor Polish. Prolly from some privileged background, mummy and daddy are paying for a jebbie school.
He's quick to cast aspersions on integrity and honor. Perhaps his parents told him "Nd Philly,
Everybody is VERY interested in your opinion.." Well they lied.

I use as my Proxy Dwayne "Rock" Johnson as in he should "Know your role and shut your hole."

It's laughable these sheeple.

Our veteran brother John McCain spent five and 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton then bonsespur bitch boy attacked him.

Again, when Nd Philly enlists (as they say in the sports book.,bet the UNDER, you can have him in your platoon .

Not me.

Give me Rondey B of Fresno, Roosevelst Sherman (deceased) of Long Beach ___________Swick of somewhee in the Midwest,s
Jessie Simpson (KIA) of Detroit, and John N.,...................................jmy homie from New Orleans.
They walked that walk with me.


You are free to select ND Philly and these other REMFS.; Good luck with that.

Na dzrowie, Pan!

 

[BrownerandFry]

I really don't want to treat this like a political thread... but man...


Biden has handled all this really well. I think he should have gone a little harder... but he's doing great getting the world behind the US

Well done.

This is a very subtle point And you MAY be correct.

the art in this, though, has been rebuilding TRUST with our European allies, which, simply was shattered and urinated on from 1/17 lto well behone 1/6/21.

He was cautios in gently building that alliance.
Herding Italy, Macron and the new German dude together makes herding cats look easy.

And freakin' Switzerland is in (everytime someone mentions Swiss banks I see that male ho' from Wolf of Wall Street"

When Zelensky got the standing O from the EU group while the German's voice was cracking during translation................................................

The other thing that is wild, and completely ALIEN to my military generation, is the sharing and blaring of intelligence
It SEEMS correct, but wow is it strange.

I look at the whole thing with the EU/NATO
and the intellignece sharing.

and I think my days in Vietnam were like the single wing, and I am flummoxed by the modern spread offense.



But I can watch................................Go Ukraine!!.

I just ordered a bunch of Ukrainian flag shirts for the family, It will be a lead balloon, but still....................

 

[irishog77]

Why did this thread get demoted down to some bottom-rung shithole that we can't even find anymore?

 

[317Irish]

Why did this thread get demoted down to some bottom-rung shithole that we can't even find anymore?

Don’t mean to make this awkward but…. U happen to have Browner on ur ignore list??

 

[WilliamWallace]

While I don't suspect Ukraine is going to pull one out they absolutely haven't rolled over. The unfortunate result of this is that in the near term their major cities will likely be turned to rubble. In basically any modern war with determined defenders in major cities the only way to crush them is with overwhelming firepower. See Grozny, Fallujah, Mosul, Raqqa. All of those cities were basically moonscaped.

The interesting thing will be to see if Russia can keep in check a possible NATO backed insurgency in a country much larger and more populous than 2003 Iraq. Also Ukraine isn't such a great prize if it's infrastructure is blown to pieces. Pretty high price to pay for a country that doesn't have much in terms of natural resources other than some decent farmland.

According to everything I’ve read, Ukraine is a gem to be had regarding Natural Resources. Not too mention land mass, and a separating country between Russia and Crimea. There’s more at play than just “Denazification”.

What Are The Major Natural Resources Of Ukraine?

Iron ore, coal, natural gas, etc., are important natural resources of Ukraine.

www.worldatlas.com

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Lmao. These clowns are so transparent.

 

[ACamp1900]

We were discussing this in class the other day and I predicted it would be a week or so until Russia starts claiming some wag the dog scenario on our part,… broken clock.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

According to everything I’ve read, Ukraine is a gem to be had regarding Natural Resources. Not too mention land mass, and a separating country between Russia and Crimea. There’s more at play than just “Denazification”.

What Are The Major Natural Resources Of Ukraine?

Iron ore, coal, natural gas, etc., are important natural resources of Ukraine.

www.worldatlas.com

Here's a clip of Col. Doug MacGregor claiming that Putin has no interest in claiming anything west of the Dneiper, and would be happy to withdraw from it provided western Ukraine remains a neutral state. One of the first plausible explanations I've heard as to how this could deescalate back into a stable status quo.

 

[INLaw]

I do not know if I would recognize a cremlin apparatchik but if that ass hole isn’t one 🤷🏻

 

[WilliamWallace]

Here's a clip of Col. Doug MacGregor claiming that Putin has no interest in claiming anything west of the Dneiper, and would be happy to withdraw from it provided western Ukraine remains a neutral state. One of the first plausible explanations I've heard as to how this could deescalate back into a stable status

Did you post a link?

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Lmao. These clowns are so transparent.

Lol, the leftist regime in the US is no where near capable of pulling off a move that savvy. Not anywhere close. Ffs.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Did you post a link?

You have to click on the word "Here" in my post. The video isn't hosted on a site that'll auto-embed here.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Here's a clip of Col. Doug MacGregor claiming that Putin has no interest in claiming anything west of the Dneiper, and would be happy to withdraw from it provided western Ukraine remains a neutral state. One of the first plausible explanations I've heard as to how this could deescalate back into a stable status quo.

I dunno, I don’t think we can allow Russia to dictate what other sovereign nations can and can’t be part of. That’s kinda why we are here.