Russia Invades Ukraine

[ab2cmiller]

There are videos of Russian captives calling home telling their loved ones they’ve been captured and their families are shocked when they tell them they’re in Ukraine.

Is this typical? Just seems odd to me. Here, I will let you call "home". What's to stop a captive from headquarters and relaying on some coded message?

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Seems plausible to me. Who knows what the general public and even the military were being told inside of Russia.

On a side note, I don't think the entire world knew that he was going into Ukraine. There were a lot of "experts" that were claiming all along that it was Putin posturing, trying to get what he wanted by simply amassing troops on the border.

Correct. Even until mid to late January, Zelenskyy himself was blowing off the potential of an invasion publicly.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Our intelligence community knows plenty. Ever since his rebuke in 2014, Putin has been chafing to get Ukrainian access for convenient shipment of raw materials etc across Ukraine, but they gave him the (rightly so) middle finger. Our response to things like this (and other geo-political nastiness like Taiwan) has been gamed in the CIA and Pentagon think tanks over and over. The problem is obviously that we cannot not support a serious manpower-oriented play on the ground in Russia's backyard sandpile. There is a view by the way that any serious extension of heavy fire-fighting will only result in maximizing civilian deaths and destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure --- not my favorite vision of Ukraine's future.

I'd rather it be something like Finland with a secure cross-country transport system (employing Ukrainians) shipping Russian materials from Crimea and central Asia. These guys can't outcompete the US or Germany due to things like that; they just need it to become even a small serious player in world economy. Right now economists refer to them as essentially a big gas station of a country. ... and, by the way, the path to completely neutralize Russia is to completely embed them in the global economy, so that things like this become unthinkable for them. Despite the Nervous Nellie's, this is what has happened to China.

This current crap is about two things: a psychological issue with Putin and his self-image and political survival, and the Russian economy's need for easy and secure mass goods transport. And as for anyone thinking that nukes are in play, baloney. Making the place radioactive when you want to use it for massive goods transfer doesn't compute for anyone, even a semi-crazy one.

As to Russia's economy and China: China only represents 16% thereabouts of Russia's export buyers. If Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands begin shutting off their purchasing (this doesn't have to go to zero to really hurt the average Russian's lifestyle) China will not be interested in buying all the unsold stuff --- especially since Putin's bonehead play messes with overall world economics, which is really what China cares about. China has been known to us to have set global economic stability as the number one priority of their global view plan. They KNOW that they can outcompete everyone in stable conditions, even US on most things. They do not like meddling idiots, which Putin now overtly is.

 

[PerthDomer]

The communications isn't as big of a deal as it seems. Much of the march to Baghdad was done with little to no communication capabilities. Assaults and convoys were literally launched from Kuwait with a general order, with no/limited/unsecure communication lines to alter, change, or be alerted once begun. These were often 200-400 mile treks.
The discrepancy in U.S. military versus iraq's made much of this possible. While not as vast, russia's superiority versus Ukraine's should work in their favor as well.
The planning prior to the invasion was also a huge advantage for the U.S.

Russian doctrine is much more centrally oriented than ours. We devolve decision making and let people make their own decisions and they don't.

Also, Russia's oligarchs make money by skimming off the top of the industries they run, and the military industrial complex is a big industry. Their military is weak because it's run in the same way the whole Russian state is.

 

[Irish#1]

Is this typical? Just seems odd to me. Here, I will let you call "home". What's to stop a captive from headquarters and relaying on some coded message?

Playing devils advocate, this is a great way to build discourse inside Russia. Let them call home. "My son just called. They told him it was just a training exercise they were doing, but he's been captured in Ukraine. "

 

[Johannes]

For all the shortcoming of the modern American media landscape, I am eternally grateful for the freedom of the press.

 

[bobbyok1]

For all the shortcoming of the modern American media landscape, I am eternally grateful for the freedom of the press.

Agreed . . .

And yet, sadly the BBC's piece doesn't sound much different from what most major news outlets are doing in the US.

Certainly am very grateful for Freedom of Press in the form of Independent Journalists, otherwise, there would be little to gain from such freedoms.

 

[IrishLax]

Russian doctrine is much more centrally oriented than ours. We devolve decision making and let people make their own decisions and they don't.

Also, Russia's oligarchs make money by skimming off the top of the industries they run, and the military industrial complex is a big industry. Their military is weak because it's run in the same way the whole Russian state is.

Bingo. There was a piece a couple days ago that said exactly this -- that basically the reason the military was so woefully undersupplied was because there have been decades of corruption. They cook the books to say "our force readiness is X" when really they had nowhere close to the munitions, food, fuel, supplies, etc. that they had on paper. When Ukraine didn't fall in 48 hours they didn't have the logistics to continue pushing forward. It's a matter of time until they get those supplies and then Ukraine is cooked.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Interesting Twitter follow….

https://twitter.com/ruoligarchjets?s=21

 

[Whiskeyjack]

How is this not a comparison with Russia and Nazi Germany? It is the same thing! The West is so afraid of starting something up that they dont dare want to stand up to evil. So they let people die and it wont stop Putin from his goals just like it didnt stop Hitler from his.

The post you quoted explains the differences quite clearly: nukes and NATO. When the bad guy has enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world several times over, it's never as simple as just "standing up to evil". What's currently happening in Ukraine pales in comparison to the devastation Putin could unleash if he felt painted into a corner.

A nuclear armed Russia. Russia has been nuke armed for fifty years now. So what? Just roll over and let them do whatever they want until they plant their flag in your backyard? Im sure then you will man all the way up right?

You seem to be projecting a lot of masculine insecurity onto this issue. God willing, cooler heads than yours will prevail.

Putin will not stop with Ukraine. His full intention is reclaiming the USSR and that means several NATO states.

He's looking to reconstitute Imperial Russia, not the Soviet Union. I doubt he's suicidal enough to invade a NATO member, and even if he is, it doesn't look like the Russian military has the capability to project power much beyond their immediate neighbors anymore. You're wetting yourself over the international equivalent of a gas station with a Soviet military museum attached as a roadside attraction.

But I guess it is okay to let 4.1 million people die and lose everything just as long as they dont knock on NATOs steps right? What happens then? Will you still be in the fetal position saying dont tempt a nuclear-armed Russia then too?

Where are you getting your news? 4.1m is a strangely specific figure. There's no indication that Putin is going to start liquidating huge numbers of civilians. These hysterical reactions are not persuading anyone.

 

[stpeteirish]

Tough times for Russian oligarchs. If you put your money in western banks your assets are frozen and if you left it in rubles it’s lost half it’s value.
But they probably have most of their money in hard assets and crypto.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Moldova next?

Ukraine war: Belarus dictator stands in front of battle map on live TV

Alexander Lukashenko, dictatorial ruler of Belarus, stood in front of a large map apparently detailing Russia's attack plan for Ukraine as he addressed his security council today.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Moldova next?

Ukraine war: Belarus dictator stands in front of battle map on live TV

Alexander Lukashenko, dictatorial ruler of Belarus, stood in front of a large map apparently detailing Russia's attack plan for Ukraine as he addressed his security council today.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Likely intentional disinformation. I’d expect a Baltic invasion first.

Unless they are really that inept. surely they aren’t THAT inept.

 

[WilliamWallace]

I just heard on NPR that American Petroleum company Exxon-Mobil still has ties with Russia. They were talking about the impact of how BP, and Shell have severed business ties.

We need to pressure E-M to follow suit. At some point the isolation will be too much.

 

[notredomer23]

I know all of this is embellished, but the post-mortem is gonna show the true badassery of these Ukrainians.

 

[WilliamWallace]

I know all of this is embellished, but the post-mortem is gonna show the true badassery of these Ukrainians.

I certainly hope this is true, this would be significant. Keeping handing Putin the blows, I just hope they can hold out until Putin has to tuck tail, however he’s forced to do so.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I just heard on NPR that American Petroleum company Exxon-Mobil still has ties with Russia. They were talking about the impact of how BP, and Shell have severed business ties.

We need to pressure E-M to follow suit. At some point the isolation will be too much.

I have no clue how these companies will be able to divest if everyone is looking to sell. Russia has said that they are putting in rules to make it "temporarily" impossible for Western companies from fleeing their investments. LOL. Yeah, we will see how long "temporary" is.

 

[ACamp1900]

War zone, military bloggers,….. brave new world

 

[GATTACA!]

War zone, military bloggers,….. brave new world

Get combat footage and a nice quiche recipe all at once.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

I have no clue how these companies will be able to divest if everyone is looking to sell. Russia has said that they are putting in rules to make it "temporarily" impossible for Western companies from fleeing their investments. LOL. Yeah, we will see how long "temporary" is.

Their ownership stakes may be irrecoverable sunk costs now, but Russia can’t stop them from not putting a single new dime into any of it… 🤷‍♂️ I

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Tax code probably allows for this to be counted as a loss. Companies will be ok. Lmao

 

[Ndaccountant]

Regarding (2), Russians rank 32nd worldwide in median income. So while they're not as poor as the average Arab living in a petrol-state, they're certainly not wealthy by European standards. And public opinion in Russia re Putin is divided between those who support him because he's the only option they're ever offered, and those who are largely apathetic, having despaired of ever improving their own situation. It's not like Russia is famous for its open and fair elections. Point being, punishing the average Russian for Putin's imperial aspirations would likely be counter-productive.

Regarding (3), invading a NATO state is an obvious line in the sand. Putin apparently wants to reconstitute the Russian empire, but its borders varied hugely over the years. Some of the countries in his near abroad (like Ukraine) he can take by force (but can he hold them thereafter?) Others (like Belarus) will willingly join him. Others still (like Azerbijan) can be pressured into giving him the influence he wants via other means. Hopefully NATO has a clear idea of what he's after and how to contain him.

Trying to figure out the motivations of a madman is largely futile. But I have to wonder if his mortality is starting to catch up to him and he is reacting accordingly (he is very close to life expectancy for a male in Russia). His desire to re-unite Soviet States has been well documented. While being odd bedfellows considering their territorial history, Russia and China need each other to "defeat the west", whatever that means.

When you combine his age, current China relations with the US, his ability to blame the US for his "security concerns", and the war fatigue that has gripped the west via the Middle East (and the Afgan train wreck), it is/was now or never. In one way, if he was thinking this way, he was correct in that much of the west wants no business in formally getting involved. He was also correct in that China, at least internally, is much in his corner as the average person in China equates this Russian battle to how they "defeated" the US in Korea (oddly enough, they are approaching 70th anniversary). As long as he stays clear of NATO states, he probably felt he could do whatever he wanted. But I think he badly miscalculated his military strength, the strength of his "enemies", the motivation of his military and citizens, and the massive economic burden this is going to create. Deep down, he knows he fucked this up. But his only way to at least put a feather in his old Soviet cap is to get "territory back". Problem is, I just don't see how that happens at this point without massive / prolonged fighting.

 

[WilliamWallace]

I have no clue how these companies will be able to divest if everyone is looking to sell. Russia has said that they are putting in rules to make it "temporarily" impossible for Western companies from fleeing their investments. LOL. Yeah, we will see how long "temporary" is.

Right! Hey Russia, we’re done! You can’t, we did!!!

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

If that’s true, that’s fucking bananas

 

[Ndaccountant]

If that’s true, that’s fucking bananas

yea...that is.....something else. Equal parts fascinating and terrifying.

 

[Irish#1]

Interesting Twitter follow….

https://twitter.com/ruoligarchjets?s=21

I think that’s the same kid that had Musk in an uproar for following his jet.

 

[ab2cmiller]

3 Biggest Container Shipping Groups announced they would no longer take bookings for goods from Russia and were suspending all deliveries of non-essentials.

 

[ab2cmiller]

When you read this twitter thread, it really is astonishing all that has happened. Even if Russia would've put together a "worst case" scenario beforehand, I can't imagine it would've been anywhere close to this.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]