2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Buster Bluth]

So this is setting up to be the craziest election since... 2000? 1992? 1968? 1912?

 

[connor_in]

Hillary Clinton can't count on Bernie Sanders' supporters in November - Washington Times

 

[calvegas04]

Hillary Clinton can't count on Bernie Sanders' supporters in November - Washington Times

A lot of his supporters are young, I can see them staying home rather than going out to vote for her evil policy's

 

[GoIrish41]

Bernie as VP will bring a lot of voters into the Hillary camp.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Bernie as VP will bring a lot of voters into the Hillary camp.

Hasn't this been shot down numerous times?

Also, it would make zero sense.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The NYT's just published an article titled "Donald Trump's Backers Express Deep and Diverse Support":

Donald J. Trump won the vote of a 59-year-old cabdriver in the Boston suburbs who said he lost his trucking business after immigrants began delivering cargo for less.

In Loudoun County, Virginia, one of the country’s wealthiest, he won the backing of a newly separated mother and a longtime Democrat who spoke of the possibility of another terrorist attack, saying, “I don’t think we feel safe right now.”

And Mark Harris, a 48-year-old owner of an antiques shop in Canton, Ga., said he did not much care for Mr. Trump’s ego and worried that his impolitic speech could derail American diplomacy.

But Mr. Harris voted for Mr. Trump, too.

“He’s not afraid to get in the trenches and fight for you,” Mr. Harris said. “He’s going to be a bully, and he’s going to tell them what he thinks, and he’s going to push to get it done. He don’t care who he makes mad in the process.”

Mr. Trump’s string of victories Tuesday, the biggest day of primary voting, was not unexpected. But interviews with Trump voters from the middle-class suburbs of Minneapolis to the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains revealed a surprising depth and diversity of support that could sustain him as a front-runner in the critical weeks to come.

They delivered him victories in conservative Southern strongholds like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, as well as Northern states like Massachusetts, where centrist Republicans hold sway. And though he lost to Senator Ted Cruz in Mr. Cruz’s home state, Texas, Mr. Trump prevailed in Virginia, fending off Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

Early exit polls confirmed his broad support; in Virginia, for example, he was winning not only among lower-income voters, his usual base, but also in other categories including veterans and self-described conservatives and white evangelicals. In Texas, those calling themselves political moderates, the kinds of voters some rivals are counting on, were favoring Mr. Trump as well.

In interviews, Mr. Trump’s supporters did not appear defined by a common ideology. But they had a unifying motivation — a deep-rooted, pervasive sense of anxiety about the state of the country, and an anger and frustration at those they felt were encroaching on their way of life.

Asked what they liked in Mr. Trump, his voters described attributes that his opponents have tried to paint as failings. His fierce and sometimes offensive comments on Mexican and Muslim immigrants, and on waterboarding and killing family members of Islamic State fighters, demonstrate, his voters said, a refreshing willingness to disregard political correctness.

“He’s saying how the people really feel,” said Janet Aguilar, 59, clad in a Red Sox jacket, who voted for Mr. Trump in Everett, Mass. “We’re all afraid to say it.”

Where others see a twice-divorced ladies’ man now married to a much younger model, his fans saw the head of a successful family whose children, as Albert Banda, the cabdriver from Somerville, Mass., put it, are “respectable and decent members of society” who “aren’t running around like Paris Hilton and dragging their bodies through the mud.”

Mr. Trump’s huge ego? Not necessarily a problem. “He doesn’t just want to be a president. He wants to be the greatest president,” said Elizabeth Burns, the Virginia mother, who said she campaigned for Hillary Clinton in 2008. “That works in our favor because he doesn’t want to fail. He sees himself as too big to fail.”

Those supporting him did not always agree with everything he said, or the way he said it, and they were not even convinced that he would be able to follow through on all of his big, brash promises. But they were willing to give him their conditional support, drawn to him by his tough talk and bravado, as well as their own disappointment and even fatalism about the politicians they were used to seeing on the menu.

“This isn’t about whether he’s going to do a better job or not,” said Ken Magno, 69, leaving his polling place in Everett, Mass., Tuesday morning, wearing a red Donald Trump winter hat. “More or less, it’s the statement: Listen, we’re sick and tired of what you people do. And we’re going to put somebody in there — now that it’s our choice, we’re going to put somebody in there that basically you don’t like.”

Some of the voters supporting Mr. Trump openly expressed skepticism, and even discomfort, with some of his assurances, as well as with his talk. Mr. Harris, for instance, said that broken promises would transform the real estate magnate into an ordinary politician.

And John Rupert, 75, a retired mechanical engineer from Mahtomedi, Minn., said he was torn on Mr. Trump’s promise to deport the 11 million immigrants in the country illegally. “Oh man, that’s a hard one,” he said. “We have laws, and somehow you have to enforce them. I don’t know.”

But Mr. Rupert — a longtime Democrat who supported Jesse Ventura, the former professional wrestler, for governor — added that he had gradually come to accept Mr. Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigrants.

“At first I felt bad about the Muslim thing, but boy, you go ask Angela Merkel how she feels now with all the trouble they had with Muslim refugees from Syria in Berlin, so he’s not far off,” he said, referring to Germany’s chancellor. “It’s not a prejudice. It’s more of a racial profiling, and quite honestly, I’d be in favor of it.”

Mr. Trump, he added, “just seems to say things that I feel right about.”

One of the least likely Trump voters may have been Fadumo Yusuf, 34, a Muslim woman and Ethiopian immigrant who lives in Minneapolis. When she showed up at a pro-Trump rally on Sunday, she was practically mobbed by supporters who thanked her, and a Trump sticker made its way onto her hijab.

His comments about banning Muslims from entering the country, she said, were “hurtful,” and she also worried about his policies toward immigrants fleeing Central and South America.

But Ms. Yusuf, who earned an accounting degree in 2010 from a community college and has applied for more than 20 accounting jobs without any offers, said she felt “cheated.” She relies on her mother for help with necessities like diapers and car insurance, and thinks Mr. Trump will help small business owners by lowering taxes and allowing them to hire more employees.

“We came here to sacrifice and to a get visa. We are not terrorists,” she said. “I believe he has a heart, so I will overlook that.”

Another Trump supporter, Pam Fisher, 52, a retired flight attendant from Edina, Minn., said she was flying on Sept. 11, 2001, and was deeply shaken by the attacks that day. She said she felt comforted by Mr. Trump’s hard line on national security and immigration, and sounded much like Mr. Trump as she explained why she liked him.

“You’re letting refugees in, after what we’ve been through with 9/11? Are you kidding me? No! No, no, no,” she said. Using an acronym for the Islamic State, she added: “Now we have a bunch of people being killed, we’ve got ISIS cutting people’s heads off.”

Ms. Fisher said she was taken with Mr. Trump’s wife, Melania, even more than the candidate himself. “She’s got it, and it’s putting class back in this country,” Ms. Fisher said. “She walks off the airplane, and it’s like the Kennedys again, only the Republican side. I think they’re a stunning family.”

Ms. Fisher said she had voted Republican in the past, but had never been involved in campaigning. Yet with Mr. Trump, that’s just what she found herself doing, standing at the entrance of his recent rally in the suburbs of Minneapolis.

Handing out Trump stickers to the crowd, Ms. Fisher found herself tearing up as she talked about being unexpectedly drawn to this “huge movement” for the former reality television star. “It’s so out of my character to do something like this,” she said. “I just needed to rise up, and it’s a great feeling.”

These people don't deserve your disdain. Most of them are basically good, decent folks. Direct your anger at the elites who opened the door for a demagogue like Trump by serving the donor class to the exclusion of these people.

 

[ACamp1900]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eE6ica0t95Q" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[tussin]

These people don't deserve your disdain. Most of them are basically good, decent folks. Direct your anger at the elites who opened the door for a demagogue like Trump by serving the donor class to the exclusion of these people.

How would Trump better serve the working class? We see it in messaging but not in proposed policy.

 

[woolybug25]

Bruce Ackerman at the LA Times just published an op-ed called A presidential run by Michael Bloomberg could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.

the next couple of weeks, Michael R. Bloomberg will decide whether to launch an independent bid for the presidency. That's an enticing prospect, since the continuing strength of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders threatens to force a radical choice between two extremes. Nevertheless, before succumbing to centrist temptation, the former New York City mayor should take a hard look at the Constitution. He will find that his run for the White House could precipitate one of the worst constitutional crises in American history.

The problem is the 12th Amendment. Enacted in 1804, it establishes the rules for presidential selection if no candidate secures a majority of 270 electoral votes — a distinct possibility should Bloomberg enter the race. The sphere of competition will then move from the states to the House of Representatives, where Bloomberg will confront formidable challenges. He will have to persuade Republican and Democratic lawmakers to betray the tens of millions of loyalists who voted for their party's nominee. But he'll have to do more than gain a majority of House members. Under the amendment's special rules, each state delegation casts a single vote, and the winning candidate must convince 26 delegations to support him. Even if Bloomberg carries a few key states in November, his fate will be determined by representatives from regions that rejected his candidacy. In addition, there are 11 states with only one or two House members — and their idiosyncratic views will have a disproportionate say in the final choice.

Worse yet, if a state's delegation is equally divided, it can't vote at all. This means that the process will degenerate into a free-for-all as rival candidates engage in desperate efforts to nudge one or another fence-sitter in their direction.

At this point, a final factor will make for more melodrama. If the House can't pick a chief executive by Jan. 20, the amendment provides an interim remedy. It says that the new vice president will become acting president while the political bargaining continues.

The three vice presidential nominees will be in the same position as their running mates — none will have gained a majority of the electoral college. Anticipating this eventuality, the authors of the 12th Amendment designed another system for resolving the vice presidential contest.

The 12th Amendment [sets] the rules for presidential selection if no candidate secures a majority of 270 electoral votes--a distinct possibility should Bloomberg enter the race.
Under this secondary scheme, it's the Senate, not the House, that does the deciding, and a simple majority of senators suffices to make the choice. But the Senate can choose only between the top two, not the top three, candidates. As a consequence, Bloomberg's running mate might be barred from the competition from the start.

In any event, the major party in control of the Senate will almost certainly install its own candidate, not Bloomberg's. Suppose, for example, that the Democrats regain control of the Senate and put Sanders' running mate, Elizabeth Warren, into office. This might shock the previously paralyzed House into action: Perhaps the Republicans would abandon Trump and support Bloomberg in a desperate effort to save the country from Warren?

The emergence of a Bloomberg-Warren pairing illustrates a larger point. Given the arcane constitutional rules, the only way for Bloomberg to win is by manipulating procedures that will be utterly mysterious to the overwhelming majority of ordinary citizens. If the multibillionaire does succeed in backroom deals that procure him the presidency, his ascent will serve only as a dramatic display of the power of Wall Street to lord it over the American people.

Such a victory will have devastating consequences. Consider how the tea party pressured congressional Republicans to make life difficult for Obama. Life will be even more difficult for Bloomberg, who will also contend with the disappointed “political revolutionaries” among the Democrats inspired by Sanders. As the struggle between Congress and the president escalates, ordinary Americans will turn away in despair. This massive wave of alienation will permit the extreme right and the far left to become even more powerful forces in the next presidential election — with Trump and Sanders, or their successors, taking over both parties and competing with each other in their radical programs to sweep away the Washington elite.

The time for Bloomberg to consider this grim future is now. He has always presented himself as a thoughtful pragmatist who disdains ideological posturing. But only the blindest follower of Antonin Scalia — the most adamant constitutional originalist — can fail to recognize that the 12th Amendment, passed during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson, can't cope with the realities of modern politics.

If Bloomberg is a true patriot, he will not allow his personal ambition to throw the United States into a grave constitutional crisis.

Interesting notes on the 12th amendment.

 

[kmoose]

How would Trump better serve the working class? We see it in messaging but not in proposed policy.

Tax reform, for one thing:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-should-pay-more-in-taxes-than-everyone-else/

Simplifying the tax code is a goal that Trump said he shares, but he also believes that rich Americans should pay more on every dollar of additional income.

"The one problem I have with a flat tax is that rich people are paying the same as people that are making very little money," Trump, who is worth an estimated $2.9 billion, said Monday morning on "Fox & Friends." "I think there should be a graduation of some kind."

The Republican front-runner also advocated higher taxes on hedge-fund managers, a position shared by his Democratic opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Managers at hedge funds are able to count their income as returns on investments, allowing them to pay less in taxes than they would if they reported their earnings as a salary or a wage. It's known as the carried-interest loophole, and while it's difficult to know how much it costs the government, one estimate puts the price tag at a whopping $180 billion over 10 years.

Clinton said she'd close the loophole, and while Trump didn't mention carried interest specifically, he did say that hedge-fund managers should pay more in taxes.

"They should be taxed a fair amount of money," he said, without offering details. "They're not paying enough tax."

 

[connor_in]

Bruce Ackerman at the LA Times just published an op-ed called A presidential run by Michael Bloomberg could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.



Interesting notes on the 12th amendment.

I keep hearing about him possibly jumping in (Biden again too FWIW), but do we honestly think he will draw enough votes and thus draw enough electoral votes to bring this about? I just don't see clamoring for a Bloomberg presidency. I don't think he'd pull Ross Perot-like numbers; maybe Ralph Nader numbers...

 

[IrishLax]

Bruce Ackerman at the LA Times just published an op-ed called A presidential run by Michael Bloomberg could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.



Interesting notes on the 12th amendment.

That's wild, thanks for posting. Hope it happens, just to see the chaos.

 

[GoIrish41]

Hasn't this been shot down numerous times?

Also, it would make zero sense.

Shot down by whom? And why would it make zero sense? Because they disagreed while campaigning? It is a pretty standard presidential election year tactic ... just ask Bush Sr. who dubbed Reagan's economic policies as "voodoo economics." Al Gore was picked by Bill Clinton after failing to beat him in the primaries. Joe Biden was chosen by Obama after losing in the primaries. I would argue that with Hillary and Bernie, it makes much more sense because he has far more support than did any of those three during their presidential runs. In all these cases, including Bernie as VP, this helps the candidate win ... and in this case, helps keep the antichrist out of the Oval Office.

 

[drayer54]

and in this case, helps keep the antichrist out of the Oval Office.

Which one?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Trump released portions of his healthcare plan. I like one part of it: Allowing pharmaceuticals to be imported, driving down costs. I watched a documentary about this recently. It's unreal (though I shouldn't be surprised) at how much the big pharm industry gauges Americans. This is a perfect example of Trump being anti-establishment. John McCain is probably the only other GOP rep who's pushed for this same policy. It shouldn't shock anyone that pharma lobbyists pump money into Washington to ensure this doesn't happen. Trump wants to change that and it's one area I give him a thumbs up.

 

[kmoose]

Trump released portions of his healthcare plan. I like one part of it: Allowing pharmaceuticals to be imported, driving down costs. I watched a documentary about this recently. It's unreal (though I shouldn't be surprised) at how much the big pharm industry gauges Americans. This is a perfect example of Trump being anti-establishment. John McCain is probably the only other GOP rep who's pushed for this same policy. It shouldn't shock anyone that pharma lobbyists pump money into Washington to ensure this doesn't happen. Trump wants to change that and it's one area I give him a thumbs up.

IF it works. I'm not educated about the drug industry enough to know whether foreign pharmaceuticals are cheaper because they steal formulae from the US companies(instead of pumping billions into R&D) or if it is because of a lack of the same regulations as US Pharm companies deal with. If it is the latter, then I would have to assume that the imported drugs will have to be manufactured according to the same guidelines, and therefore the "for export to the US" drugs will end up being just as expensive as the US made drugs.

 

[pkt77242]

IF it works. I'm not educated about the drug industry enough to know whether foreign pharmaceuticals are cheaper because they steal formulae from the US companies(instead of pumping billions into R&D) or if it is because of a lack of the same regulations as US Pharm companies deal with. If it is the latter, then I would have to assume that the imported drugs will have to be manufactured according to the same guidelines, and therefore the "for export to the US" drugs will end up being just as expensive as the US made drugs.

US pharma companies sell the same pill for less in other countries.
ETA: basically we pay more for the exact same pill here than other countries do.

 

[kmoose]

US pharma companies sell the same pill for less in other countries.
ETA: basically we pay more for the exact same pill here than other countries do.

That could be due to bulk purchases. Maybe the drugs do not require a prescription in other countries and are sold OTC? So more people buy them?

 

[pkt77242]

That could be due to bulk purchases. Maybe the drugs do not require a prescription in other countries and are sold OTC? So more people buy them?

part of it is bulk purchase as the European countries and Canada buy in bulk as they have single payer health care (vs our system with various groups purchasing) and I believe that Medicare part D does not let Medicare negotiate the price of drugs. Multiple things go into the higher price of our drugs.

 

[irishfan]

Massachusetts is such an outlier for Trump. It's odd.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump won GOP voters with postgraduate degrees in Massachusetts, the crown jewel of American higher education <a href="https://t.co/gv2jIX7ptS">pic.twitter.com/gv2jIX7ptS</a></p>— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) <a href="https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/704968285423583233">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Like I said...pretty big outlier. This from a state that is considered to be very "educated" as well. I'm assuming he will win elsewhere in the Northeast? Weird that he does well with the educated up North, but doesn't seem to down South or elsewhere

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump won GOP voters with postgraduate degrees in Massachusetts, the crown jewel of American higher education <a href="https://t.co/gv2jIX7ptS">pic.twitter.com/gv2jIX7ptS</a></p>— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) <a href="https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/704968285423583233">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Like I said...pretty big outlier. This from a state that is considered to be very "educated" as well. I'm assuming he will win elsewhere in the Northeast? Weird that he does well with the educated up North, but doesn't seem to down South or elsewhere

Follow the racism, not education. There you will find your answers.

 

[calvegas04]

Follow the racism, not education. There you will find your answers.

that is every liberals answer to anything now days, everything is racism

 

[BGIF]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump won GOP voters with postgraduate degrees in Massachusetts, the crown jewel of American higher education <a href="https://t.co/gv2jIX7ptS">pic.twitter.com/gv2jIX7ptS</a></p>— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) <a href="https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/704968285423583233">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Like I said...pretty big outlier. This from a state that is considered to be very "educated" as well. I'm assuming he will win elsewhere in the Northeast?

Trump won two N.E. states on Super Tuesday. Vermont is still in the Northest.

Weird that he does well with the educated up North, but doesn't seem to down South or elsewhere

You haven't read any of the exit polling data have you?

Trump won the educated categories in AL, TN, and GA yesterday and if you'll check the results you'll find he won some with higher post graduate numbers than MA. Trump finished second in one category Post Grads in GA where he had 30% of the Post Grad Category and the Rubio had 32%. In AR Trump won 3 of the 4 education categories finishing second among Post Grads with 25% to Rubio's 35%.

In VA Trump won High School and Some College while Rubio won College and Post Grad.

In Texas, the favorite son Ted Cruz won all the education categories with Trump finishing second across the board.


Going back to other primaries and regions of the country Trump won all the Nevada Education Categories across the board. He had 42% of College Grads and 37% of Post Grads.

In Iowa there were only two education categories, College Grad, Non Grad in the exit polls. Rubio won CG 28%, Cruz 24%, Trump 22%. Among Non CG, Cruz won with 31%, Trump 27%, Rubio 17%.

Super Tuesday election results - CNNPolitics.com

 

[BGIF]

DOJ grants immunity to ex-Hillary Clinton staffer who set up email server - CNNPolitics.com

By Evan Perez, CNN Justice Reporter
Updated 10:23 PM ET, Wed March 2, 2016

Washington (CNN)Bryan Pagliano, a former Clinton staffer who helped set up her private email server, has accepted an immunity offer from the FBI and the Justice Department to provide an interview to investigators, a U.S. law enforcement official told CNN Wednesday.

The FBI has been asking for Pagliano's cooperation for months as dozens of investigators pored over thousands of Clinton emails in a secure room on the fourth floor of FBI headquarters.

The probe shifted into a new phase recently as investigators completed the review of the emails, working with intelligence agencies and the State Department to determine whether they were classified.

The Washington Post first reported Pagliano's cooperation.

...

 

[GATTACA!]

DOJ grants immunity to ex-Hillary Clinton staffer who set up email server - CNNPolitics.com

By Evan Perez, CNN Justice Reporter
Updated 10:23 PM ET, Wed March 2, 2016

Oh snap looks like we got a snitch. Hillary's in deep shit now.

 

[BGIF]

Hill Republicans push anti-Trump effort - CNNPolitics.com

(CNN)A day after Donald Trump's strong Super Tuesday finishes, nervous congressional Republicans grappled with how to deal with the brash billionaire's growing momentum towards winning the GOP presidential nomination.

Instead of grumbling acceptance of Trump as the presumptive nominee, a last ditch effort launched to get the remaining GOP candidates to work together so one alternative to Trump could consolidate support and rise up to beat him.

If you don't consolidate, Trump is going to win the nomination by plurality

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, one of the loudest voices for finding a way to block Trump.


Not by plurality, Lindsey! OMG!

Interestingly 18 U.S. Presidential Elections have been won by plurality (including Lincoln, Kennedy, Truman, Clinton, Wilson twice) and 4 were won when the loser won the plurality (John Quincy Adams, Hayes, Harrison, George W. Bush)

 

[BGIF]

Bob Beckel,a political analyst, on CNN just now.

All this discussion about stopping Trump doesn't matter if Rubio can't win Florida and Trump wins Ohio. If Trump wins those two it's all over.

 

[BGIF]

Exclusive: Koch brothers will not use funds to try to block Trump nomination | Reuters

BY MICHELLE CONLIN
Thu Mar 3, 2016 2:23am EST

The Koch brothers, the most powerful conservative mega donors in the United States, will not use their $400 million political arsenal to try to block Republican front-runner Donald Trump's path to the presidential nomination, a spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday.

The decision by the billionaire industrialists is another setback to Republican establishment efforts to derail the New York real estate mogul's bid for the White House, and follows speculation the Kochs would soon launch a "Trump Intervention."

"We have no plans to get involved in the primary," said James Davis, spokesman for Freedom Partners, the Koch brothers’ political umbrella group. He would not elaborate on what the brothers' strategy would be for the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama.

Three sources close to the Kochs said the brothers made the decision because they were concerned that spending millions of dollars attacking Trump would be money wasted, since they had not yet seen any attack on Trump stick.

The Koch brothers are also smarting from the millions of dollars they pumped into the failed 2012 Republican presidential bids of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, the sources said.

...

 

[BGIF]

In response to a reporter question, Kasich said tonight he will not make personal attacks on Trump.

I'll continue to speak on the issues and explain my position and will not engage in personal attacks.

 

[Buster Bluth]

that is every liberals answer to anything now days, everything is racism

It's about as ridiculous as every conservative denying that racism isn't sometimes a major issue.

I mean come on, when exactly did the US stop being racist? It's still here chief.