National Signing Day 2016

[IrishLion]

Put the question differently. Would you accept a 10-2 regular season every year for the next 5 years? Nothing worse, nothing better.

I would not. I want to make the playoffs.

Exactly.

What is "exactly" about that lol?

You guys are acting like we are going to win nothing but 10, ever.

If that's the case, then yes, that would become disappointing. But that's not a realistic scenario lol. College football is much too fluid for that. It's like you guys WANT to be disappointed about something lol.

 

[greyhammer90]

Put the question differently. Would you accept a 10-2 regular season every year for the next 5 years? Nothing worse, nothing better.

I would not. I want to make the playoffs.

That's not really the same question. The whole reason why a ten win season is seen as a positive is because it strongly indicates a program with growth and momentum with good odds at making the playoffs next year and winning a championship. If you take away that possibility, then a ten win season doesn't have any inherent advantages if your goal is to win a national championship.

To put it another way, would you consider an undefeated regular season and losing in the championship game a disappointment? No. Would you take that for the next five years? Again probably no, because it eliminates the positive aspects of that kind of season.

 

[dublinirish]

Recruit Shavar Manuel's flip to Florida State Seminoles from Florida Gators planned, assistant coach boasts

Listen to this prick talk:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J3--yF0lIVg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Irish Insanity]

What is "exactly" about that lol?

You guys are acting like we are going to win nothing but 10, ever.

If that's the case, then yes, that would become disappointing. But that's not a realistic scenario lol. College football is much too fluid for that. It's like you guys WANT to be disappointed about something lol.

I don't want to be disappointed about something. However, I won't settle for mediocrity.

 

[NDohio]

I don't want to be disappointed about something. However, I won't settle for mediocrity.

10-2 for five straight years is mediocrity?

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I don't want to be disappointed about something. However, I won't settle for mediocrity.

10 wins is "mediocre"?

 

[IrishLion]

I don't want to be disappointed about something. However, I won't settle for mediocrity.

By that definition, you think anything less than the playoffs every year is mediocrity.

The only team that would not disappoint you is Bama.

 

[yankeeND]

I feel like every three years we will make the playoffs moving forward, but will be in contention every year while Kelly is at the helm. I really like where we are right now and with Sanford and Denson getting after it on the trail too, the next couple years should be a lot of fun!

 

[Irish Insanity]

10-2 for five straight years is mediocrity?

No

10 wins is "mediocre"?

Under certain circumstances, yes.

By that definition, you think anything less than the playoffs every year is mediocrity.

The only team that would not disappoint you is Bama.

No. And BK doesn't average 10 wins per year. A 10 win year under BK doesn't seem to be the norm. It seems to be, at this point, the exception.

 

[kmoose]

Put the question differently. Would you accept a 10-2 regular season every year for the next 5 years? Nothing worse, nothing better.

I would not. I want to make the playoffs.

1. You seem to think that 10-2 is going to disqualify you from the playoffs every year, and college football is just not that predictable.

2. Why is making the playoffs more important than sustained excellence?

 

[gkIrish]

1. You seem to think that 10-2 is going to disqualify you from the playoffs every year, and college football is just not that predictable.

2. Why is making the playoffs more important than sustained excellence?

We haven't had sustained excellence under BK or any other coach after Lou. If you think 8-4 or 7-5 is "excellence" we can agree to disagree.

 

[IrishLax]

The data I mentioned goes back to 2003, so it holds long before the Bama dynasty started. It is more than four total teams, too (it includes LSU, Texas, USC, Bama, Florida, Auburn, FSU, and Ohio State, and of course there are different versions of several of them in that time span).

We're talking about about two different things. Basically, you're saying "look at this historical data" and nothing you've said is incorrect. I'm saying "historical data is pointless because we're in a completely different era of football right now." To me, 2003 might as well be 1980. It's that different.

If you look at the state of college football in 2003 and contrast it to now, not only is the landscape wildly different but the only top 25 schools to even have the same coaches are TCU and Oklahoma. We're not even in the "oversigning SEC era" yet much less the "Bama dynasty era"... much less entering what could be the "CFP era" though we'll have to wait and see how distinct that is or isn't from the "Bama dynasty era." From 1999 to 2005 the SEC would win zero titles, from 2006 to 2012 they would win every single one.

So I don't think it's valuable to look at those teams and what it took to win championships. I think it's valuable to look at 1) what Bama does 2) what the other slightly-flukey teams to win titles have been doing and 3) what other teams that are in the picture are doing.

Again, I don't disagree with anything you're saying. I just don't think evaluating "what it takes to win a championship in 2016" from the perspective of what got it done in 2003 really works.

 

[irishff1014]

I feel like every three years we will make the playoffs moving forward, but will be in contention every year while Kelly is at the helm. I really like where we are right now and with Sanford and Denson getting after it on the trail too, the next couple years should be a lot of fun!

Don't count you chickens before they hatch. It's going to be really hard to keep Sanford here.

 

[kmoose]

We haven't had sustained excellence under BK or any other coach after Lou. If you think 8-4 or 7-5 is "excellence" we can agree to disagree.

And you don't think 50 wins in 5 years, which is the scenario you provided, is sustained excellence?

 

[koonja]

Loy's behind the scenes tunnel vision is out for 2016 if anyone wants to read it. It's very detailed for each player, so there's really no way to summarize it, so I apologize for that.

 

[IrishLax]

Loy's behind the scenes tunnel vision is out for 2016 if anyone wants to read it. It's very detailed for each player, so there's really no way to summarize it, so I apologize for that.

It's a really, really good read btw. A lot of information that was already known, but he does a really good job of telling it as a chronological story. And there is a whole lot of "oh yeah! wtf happened with that guy anyways?" that make you think about the road less traveled.

The #1 takeaway for me is that we consciously chose a lot of lesser-rated guys over "4" types or even "elite" players. Makes you think...

 

[koonja]

It's a really, really good read btw. A lot of information that was already known, but he does a really good job of telling it as a chronological story. And there is a whole lot of "oh yeah! wtf happened with that guy anyways?" that make you think about the road less traveled.

The #1 takeaway for me is that we consciously chose a lot of lesser-rated guys over "4" types or even "elite" players. Makes you think...

We were really damn close with Caleb Kelly. If signing day were a different day, he'd be Irish. I wish he didn't sign yesterday.

 

[irishff1014]

It's a really, really good read btw. A lot of information that was already known, but he does a really good job of telling it as a chronological story. And there is a whole lot of "oh yeah! wtf happened with that guy anyways?" that make you think about the road less traveled.

The #1 takeaway for me is that we consciously chose a lot of lesser-rated guys over "4" types or even "elite" players. Makes you think...

I thought the same thing.

 

[irishff1014]

We were really damn close with Caleb Kelly. If signing day were a different day, he'd be Irish. I wish he didn't sign yesterday.

I think kelly was blowing somke to make it sound better due to the good relationship he had with Loy. Give Loy credit he can earn a recruits respect and get info from them.

 

[koonja]

I think kelly was blowing somke to make it sound better due to the good relationship he had with Loy. Give Loy credit he can earn a recruits respect and get info from them.

In a nutshell, Kelly decided he was going to ND and wasn't joking, although Loy thought he was. Asked Loy not to change his CB when he realized it, but then texted Loy a few days later saying go ahead and change it. Then Mike Stoops visited and he said I can't say no to Oklahoma.

 

[irishff1014]

In a nutshell, Kelly decided he was going to ND and wasn't joking, although Loy thought he was. Asked Loy not to change his CB when he realized it, but then texted Loy a few days later saying go ahead and change it. Then Mike Stoops visited and he said I can't say no to Oklahoma.

I know i read the whole article.

 

[Irish Insanity]

And you don't think 50 wins in 5 years, which is the scenario you provided, is sustained excellence?

Yes, it is. But the question was would you take that or 1 Championship over that time paired with our current ups and downs.

 

[Luckylucci]

I was going to put together a lengthier post later on and pick out some guys that I really liked that we either moved on from or never really went after. However, Lax's posts brings this guy to my mind right away.

Cameron Brown OLB and PSU commit. I'd really like to have that guy in this class.

 

[kmoose]

Yes, it is. But the question was would you take that or 1 Championship over that time paired with our current ups and downs.

No it wasn't. The question was would you take 10-2 for the next 5 years? And gk said he would not, because he wanted a shot at the playoffs.

Put the question differently. Would you accept a 10-2 regular season every year for the next 5 years? Nothing worse, nothing better.

I would not. I want to make the playoffs.

It's not an either/or scenario. All I did was ask him why a shot at the playoffs (which 10-2 does not automatically negate) is more important than sustained excellence. And then he tried to say that 8-4, 7-5 is not sustained excellence. So I just reminded him that his scenario was 50-10 over 5 years, not 5 years of 8-4,7-5.

 

[Irish Insanity]

No it wasn't. The question was would you take 10-2 for the next 5 years? And gk said he would not, because he wanted a shot at the playoffs.



It's not an either/or scenario. All I did was ask him why a shot at the playoffs (which 10-2 does not automatically negate) is more important than sustained excellence. And then he tried to say that 8-4, 7-5 is not sustained excellence. So I just reminded him that his scenario was 50-10 over 5 years, not 5 years of 8-4,7-5.

Ha. I stand corrected. In my busy day at work, skimming thru threads, I apparently lost reading comprehension.

However, that question still remains from me to you. And another.

5 years with 10 wins, or a Championship?

5 years with 10 wins, or 2 playoff runs?

 

[kmoose]

Ha. I stand corrected. In my busy day at work, skimming thru threads, I apparently lost reading comprehension.

However, that question still remains from me to you. And another.

5 years with 10 wins, or a Championship?

5 years with 10 wins, or 2 playoff runs?

I will always go with the max number of wins, assuming that we don't dumb down our schedule to get them. It's not that I DON'T want a Championship, but I would rather have 10 wins than have 8 wins and a Championship. That is an extra two Saturdays that I will be grinning like the proverbial Cheshire cat.

I think most people want the Championships and Playoff runs because of the thrill and adrenaline of the "big game". For me, I get that same adrenaline rush and edge of your seat thrill from watching a 9-2 ND beat a 10-1 USC in the final game of the regular season. And if we go 10-2 for five years in a row, chances are probably about 50-50 that we are going to get into the playoffs at least once, if not more, in those 5 years.

 

[gkIrish]

I will always go with the max number of wins, assuming that we don't dumb down our schedule to get them. It's not that I DON'T want a Championship, but I would rather have 10 wins than have 8 wins and a Championship. That is an extra two Saturdays that I will be grinning like the proverbial Cheshire cat.

I think most people want the Championships and Playoff runs because of the thrill and adrenaline of the "big game". For me, I get that same adrenaline rush and edge of your seat thrill from watching a 9-2 ND beat a 10-1 USC in the final game of the regular season. And if we go 10-2 for five years in a row, chances are probably about 50-50 that we are going to get into the playoffs at least once, if not more, in those 5 years.

You would rather go 10-2 and 10-2 instead of 8-4 and 13-0? That's absolutely insane.

 

[BeauBenken]

You would rather go 10-2 and 10-2 instead of 8-4 and 13-0? That's absolutely insane.

In your scenario, technically, 8-4 and 13-0 is a higher max number of wins (21) than 10-2 and 10-2 (20).

Well I guess it's his scenario orginally...either way, a championship = more wins. And certainly, if I graphed it and did the mathematics, more utils aka utility aka happiness. (I skipped my Econ 301 class today so I might have to do that.)

 

[kmoose]

You would rather go 10-2 and 10-2 instead of 8-4 and 13-0? That's absolutely insane.

So now we are doing a 2 year model? Based on your initial proposition, I would rather go 50-10 over 5 years, with no NC, than to go 8-4, 9-3, 8-4, 13-0, 7-5(45-16). Now if you are going to ask about a 2 year period where I actually get more wins, then it would be consistent with my previous statement that I would take more wins, which in this (new) scenario would include a NC.

 

[gkIrish]

So now we are doing a 2 year model? Based on your initial proposition, I would rather go 50-10 over 5 years, with no NC, than to go 8-4, 9-3, 8-4, 13-0, 7-5(45-16). Now if you are going to ask about a 2 year period where I actually get more wins, then it would be consistent with my previous statement that I would take more wins, which in this (new) scenario would include a NC.

Would you rather go 11-2 and 11-2 or 13-0 and 7-6?

The bolded is absolutely insane too. I can't believe anyone feels that way.