Domina Nostra
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I would say the percentages aren't really probabilities, but rather the percentage of confidence the poster has that he will commit, i.e, I am 45% confident he will pick ND.
I kind of think of it as, based on experience, similarly-situated kids will pick ND x% of the time.
Here, the kid has a lot of traits of kids that end up going to ND, but he is a NSD kid from Fresno, so 0.0%.