'16 CA LB Caleb Kelly (Oklahoma Verbal)

Domina Nostra

Well-known member
Messages
6,251
Reaction score
1,388
I would say the percentages aren't really probabilities, but rather the percentage of confidence the poster has that he will commit, i.e, I am 45% confident he will pick ND.

I kind of think of it as, based on experience, similarly-situated kids will pick ND x% of the time.

Here, the kid has a lot of traits of kids that end up going to ND, but he is a NSD kid from Fresno, so 0.0%.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,605
Reaction score
20,075
I would say the percentages aren't really probabilities, but rather the percentage of confidence the poster has that he will commit, i.e, I am 45% confident he will pick ND.

Looking at an article on CBS Sports it shows 247 has a 95% CB to OU. The other 5% is a cloudy CB.
 

ab2cmiller

Troublemaker in training
Messages
11,453
Reaction score
8,532
This Fresno guy is evidently a radio personality covering high school sports. Probably knows nothing, but he is guessing ND

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clovis West superstar Caleb Kelly will have 3 hats on the table Wed & will let the World know<br>Who wins?<br>I guess ND</p>— PAG METER (@PAGMETER) <a href="https://twitter.com/PAGMETER/status/694229582535225344">February 1, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Crazy Balki

Site Assigned Optimist
Messages
7,868
Reaction score
4,477
112% chance he ends up at ND.

Does our ridiculous, madeup percentages have to make sense?
 

NDShark

Well-known member
Messages
1,343
Reaction score
563
Based on all of the information I have consumed, I have developed what we in the business refer to as an expert opinion, which you should all take as fact. Here it is: we have a 32.1% - 45.6% chance of landing this prospect. That's right, it's a range!
 

KPENN

Well-known member
Staff member
Messages
13,019
Reaction score
11,346
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Usually don't comment on fans but damn this ignorance is crazy. Recruits let it be known to ignore people like this! <a href="https://t.co/7uJvUoayCy">pic.twitter.com/7uJvUoayCy</a></p>— KANAI™ (@calebkkelly) <a href="https://twitter.com/calebkkelly/status/694283459729031168">February 1, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

TheChosen1

New member
Messages
2,754
Reaction score
113
Im going to go out on a limb and say that's a fan of another school acting as an Oklahoma fan.
 

IrishLion

I am Beyonce, always.
Staff member
Messages
19,128
Reaction score
11,077
Yeah, obvious troll is obvious. This could reflect poorly on the ND fanbase in a roundabout way.
 
B

Bogtrotter07

Guest
Disappointing that this is almost definitely an ND fan...

Or an Oregon fan, or a fan of any of the butt hurt schools that didn't make the cut.

Or, get this! Maybe not a football fan at all! Just someone who knows the procedure and has made a little time to maximize enjoying really pissing people off!

I for one ain't smart enough to figure this guy out, and anyhow, I doesn't care. Period.
 

NDBoiler

The Rep Machine
Messages
4,455
Reaction score
1,826
Yeah, obvious troll is obvious. This could reflect poorly on the ND fanbase in a roundabout way.

Hopefully it wasn't an ND fan. It's comical how some people think they are entitled to demand an 18 yr old kid who they don't know make their college decision on their own self centered timeline.
 

IrishLion

I am Beyonce, always.
Staff member
Messages
19,128
Reaction score
11,077
really? Not sure you can judge any group of millions of people by one guy.

I'm not saying it's right, but Kelly felt the need to point out this one guy that he had a bad experience with. So it's already had a negative effect. If it turns out that it's an ND-related troll, that's bad.
 

irish4ever

Well-known member
Messages
3,792
Reaction score
896
ND's past experience w/ the "Fresno connection" as a reference, I'd say it's 12.5% (1 in 8) chance he ends up signing w/ ND.
 

Cpnd1

Well-known member
Messages
1,401
Reaction score
1,455
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Latest on LB Caleb Kelly heading into tomorrow night's decision. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Oklahoma?src=hash">#Oklahoma</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotreDame?src=hash">#NotreDame</a> ($) <a href="https://t.co/oSOw0UWYdm">https://t.co/oSOw0UWYdm</a> <a href="https://t.co/NK0UgInlio">pic.twitter.com/NK0UgInlio</a></p>— Irish Sports Daily (@ISDUpdate) <a href="https://twitter.com/ISDUpdate/status/694558720651563008">February 2, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

GBdomer

People's Champion
Messages
6,845
Reaction score
555
Basically he's torn and can't wait for this to be over with. Good news for us
 
Top