'16 CO DE Carlo Kemp (Michigan Verbal)

[IrishLax]

I'm curious what role people think he would fill in our defense.

 

[Domina Nostra]

As much as I'd like to scold you for your facetiousness, I kind of agree.

5 years into Kelly's tenure, some patterns emerge. You can see it in play calling and recruiting. It is what it is. The truth is, there are up and down sides to every strategy. If you change to eliminate the negatives of one strategy.

Three things I would change, that wouldn't hurt much:
1) recruit more evenly year to year across the positions
2) run more on first down
3) rotate DL and RBs more.

 

[NDRock]

5 years into Kelly's tenure, some patterns emerge. You can see it in play calling and recruiting. It is what it is. The truth is, there are up and down sides to every strategy. If you change to eliminate the negatives of one strategy.

Three things I would change, that wouldn't hurt much:
1) recruit more evenly year to year across the positions
2) run more on first down
3) rotate DL and RBs more.

That's interesting. I thought we rotated too much the last couple of years. I like having a main guy (75% of the carries) with a couple guys spelling him.

 

[IrishLax]

5 years into Kelly's tenure, some patterns emerge. You can see it in play calling and recruiting. It is what it is. The truth is, there are up and down sides to every strategy. If you change to eliminate the negatives of one strategy.

Three things I would change, that wouldn't hurt much:
1) recruit more evenly year to year across the positions
2) run more on first down
3) rotate DL and RBs more.

1) The positions Kelly has had his hand in (namely QB and offensive skill players) ND has rarely had any recruiting holes, and is currently loaded at those positions.
1A) The issue is much more of a Diaco problem in that he started mailing it in after the 2012 recruiting class. He just didn't want to put in the work anymore, and accordingly front 7 recruiting became very uneven.
1B) This also falls a little bit on Alford who wasn't exactly the most organized but made up for it in other ways. But your recruiting coordinator should really be doing more to make the other coaches better.
1C) Cooks mailed it in his last year. He knew he was leaving. Hence, inexplicable secondary recruiting in 2014 (and 2013 too if we're being honest).
2) This is predictable, and predictability is bad. We run a lot, and already run a lot on first down. There is nothing wrong with play calling right now. Anyone who gripes isn't seeing the forest for the trees.
3) How exactly would taking two stud DL off the field in rotation not "hurt"? If there were other guys capable of gettingthe job done, they'd be playing. That's why you see rotation between Cage/Tillery and Okwara/Trumbetti because at those positions there isn't "hurt" in a rotation. You take Day or Rochelle off the field with the level they're playing at and it won't be very pretty. Can only afford to rotate them out against bad teams like BC, etc.

As for Kemp, I see a 3-star player with no upside. I think he'd be a pretty good rotational run stuffing DE. Or an undersized DT that could scrap. Seems like a poor man's Rochelle. He's a better recruit than a lot of the guys on the roster or in this class, but I'm perfectly happy passing on him because I don't see where he fits well in this defense.

I'm also perfectly happy taking him and simply oversigning.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

I agree with the statement we need to rotate the defensive ends more. The staff tends to do some stupid shit sometimes. For example. Why play Grant Blankenship or Bonner a few snaps in one game this season wasting their redshirt? If you are going to play them then play them.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't think he even has a commitable offer. I think his multiple delays were him trying to get one.

BREAKING: Recruit changes name to "Carl O'Kemp" in desperate bid to obtain offer from ND.

 

[ThePiombino]

BREAKING: Recruit changes name to "Carl O'Kemp" in desperate bid to obtain offer from ND.

Bah!

 

[TheChosen1]

Michigan

Carlo Kemp commits to Michigan

 

[OCIrish]

Good luck to the young man!!!!

 

[OCIrish]

Tom Haverford should be here ANY minute now.........

 

[NDPhilly]

I'd take him over Ogundeji I guess but Ogundeji actually has good potential if he can gain like 40 pounds. I dont think Kemp ever would have started and probably would have been a rotational player for run downs most of his career. Elite teams dont start kids with Kemp's athleticism

 

[ACamp1900]

Does ND actually lead for any other front seven guys? Or are we just in the mix with a handful or so guys...

 

[Booslum31]

Tom Haverford should be here ANY minute now.........

LOL

 

[Domina Nostra]

1) The positions Kelly has had his hand in (namely QB and offensive skill players) ND has rarely had any recruiting holes, and is currently loaded at those positions.
1A) The issue is much more of a Diaco problem in that he started mailing it in after the 2012 recruiting class. He just didn't want to put in the work anymore, and accordingly front 7 recruiting became very uneven.
1B) This also falls a little bit on Alford who wasn't exactly the most organized but made up for it in other ways. But your recruiting coordinator should really be doing more to make the other coaches better.
1C) Cooks mailed it in his last year. He knew he was leaving. Hence, inexplicable secondary recruiting in 2014 (and 2013 too if we're being honest).
2) This is predictable, and predictability is bad. We run a lot, and already run a lot on first down. There is nothing wrong with play calling right now. Anyone who gripes isn't seeing the forest for the trees.
3) How exactly would taking two stud DL off the field in rotation not "hurt"? If there were other guys capable of gettingthe job done, they'd be playing. That's why you see rotation between Cage/Tillery and Okwara/Trumbetti because at those positions there isn't "hurt" in a rotation. You take Day or Rochelle off the field with the level they're playing at and it won't be very pretty. Can only afford to rotate them out against bad teams like BC, etc.

As for Kemp, I see a 3-star player with no upside. I think he'd be a pretty good rotational run stuffing DE. Or an undersized DT that could scrap. Seems like a poor man's Rochelle. He's a better recruit than a lot of the guys on the roster or in this class, but I'm perfectly happy passing on him because I don't see where he fits well in this defense.

I'm also perfectly happy taking him and simply oversigning.

1) We have gotten in a good place with QB, but almost skipped it again this year. However, we are skipping on DTs this year because we overloaded last year. We are overloading at DB this year. We've skipped RB a few years and overloaded the next as well and have paid the price. We did it last year with OT. We are skipping on TE this year, and getting two next year. Obviously he thinks thinks its better to wait until you get a productive player, especially when you have to fill in other holes. personally, I think you need to really try to get to a more even place..

2) We are predictable, IMO. We pass on first and run on second, even if its second and really long. It changes when we get a lead and start committing to the run more. IMO, I agree that there is a method to Kelly's madness. He's feeling out and setting up the other team. But there are strategies as well.

3) Obviously having your best guys on the field all the time would be best, if they were capable of doing it. But most guys wear down, however, and open themselves up to injury. The whole idea that the backups can't do the job is dispelled by guys like Kizer, Adams, Bars, Farley. Kelly takes a calculated risk. He bets on the better playing, even when he's worn down, over playing more fresh players. I would go a different direction.

As for Kemp, we'll see if he's a mediocre a few years from now.

 

[tko]

I'm curious what role people think he would fill in our defense.

Downfield cover guy lol

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Wonder how he will feel when his future ex-head coach replaces his uncle next year in Indy...

 

[kjones]

2) We are predictable, IMO. We pass on first and run on second, even if its second and really long.

I don't have this year's stats, but last year on first down our mix was 217/185 run to pass. I don't think we were winning enough of the time to make up for it if things are as you say. In fact, we passes slightly more when behind, but appropriately so. Here's the breakdown for close games

Situation Runs Passes
winning by 1-7 97 82
tied 113 121
losing by 1-7 61 74

Looks good to me. I think you are suffering from confirmation bias. You overlook whenever we run on first down or say "See we should do that every time!" and then we pass you say "Man this ALWAYS happens." In reality, last year it was almost 50/50 with a slight bias towards running, and only a slight change when the game was still close. I would guess this year is even more biased towards running.

 

[NDhoosier]

Looks good to me. I think you are suffering from confirmation bias. You overlook whenever we run on first down or say "See we should do that every time!" and then we pass you say "Man this ALWAYS happens." In reality, last year it was almost 50/50 with a slight bias towards running, and only a slight change when the game was still close. I would guess this year is even more biased towards running.

That is exactly what it is and that is why I dont take the criticism of playcalling very seriously. There are a few plays every now and then I dont agree with, but I think every coach has 1 or 2 a game. But some people here and on other ND sites keep harping on Kelly because he is not leading the team the way they think he should. Confirmation bias runs rampant with people who dislike Kelly's playcalling.

There are only 2 things you can do on 1st down, run or pass... and the numbers are always close to each, then you have to take into account the opponent's strengths and weaknesses, the score, and how the opponent is set up defensively on each play.

 

[Domina Nostra]

That is exactly what it is and that is why I dont take the criticism of playcalling very seriously. There are a few plays every now and then I dont agree with, but I think every coach has 1 or 2 a game. But some people here and on other ND sites keep harping on Kelly because he is not leading the team the way they think he should. Confirmation bias runs rampant with people who dislike Kelly's playcalling.

There are only 2 things you can do on 1st down, run or pass... and the numbers are always close to each, then you have to take into account the opponent's strengths and weaknesses, the score, and how the opponent is set up defensively on each play.

Everything you say is generally true. The strategy is NOT to be predictable, and this means running on some plays where that seems counter-productive, and passing on some plays where it seems like you would run.

As I've said, I think this is certainly a rational plan of attack that has its pluses and minuses.

But I also think, as do many play callers, that certain situations lend themselves to certain calls. Sure, you can run on 3 and 17 and take the other team by surprise. But this is the kind of surprise the other team wants because you are a lot less likely not to get a first down.

Throughout the game, Denbrock or Kelly passes a lot on first down and then runs on second, even if its 2 and 10 or more. To me, I think that happens too much because its takes away momentum from the running game and results in too many 3 and longs.

I think its an even worse strategy on first and goal, especially from the 5 or 6. I think you should do some kind of run on most first downs in that situation. It certainly makes you more predictable, but it also puts you in the right mentality and a better situation in second.

Its almost the difference between pros, where its all about scheme and execution, and college, where a lot is about superior talent and determination.

 

[kjones]

Throughout the game, Denbrock or Kelly passes a lot on first down and then runs on second, even if its 2 and 10 or more. To me, I think that happens too much because its takes away momentum from the running game and results in too many 3 and longs.

This really belongs in a different thread, but I am a bit astounded that you are holding this line even when it has been proven to be verifiably false.

 

[Domina Nostra]

...

 

[Domina Nostra]

This really belongs in a different thread, but I am a bit astounded that you are holding this line even when it has been proven to be verifiably false.

Has it? Seems like I can think of a bunch of pass on 1st, and a lot of them were pass on 1st, get nothing, run on 2nd. I seem to remember getting mad at my TV for that exact issue.

For example, against Pitt:

FIRST HALF
2nd drive:
1st and 10 at ND 28: DeShone Kizer sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 19
2nd and 19 at ND 19: Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 23

3rd drive:
1st and 10 at ND 38: DeShone Kizer sacked by Lafayette Pitts for a loss of 7
2nd and 15 at ND 33: DeShone Kizer shuffle pass [RUN] complete to C.J. Prosise for 10 yds

5th drive:
1st and 10 at ND 35: DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris Brown
2nd and 10 at ND 35: DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 32

7th Drive:
1st and 10: DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey Robinson
2nd and 10: Josh Adams run for 24 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST down


SECOND HALF:
First Drive:

1st and 10 at PITT 15: DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Nic Weishar
2nd and 10 at PITT 15: Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14

Second drive:

1st and 10 at 50: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49
2nd and 11 at ND 49: Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47

3rd Drive:

1st and 10 at ND 38: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 35
2nd and 13 at ND 35: Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 47


Again, I recognize the advantage here is eliminating "tendencies."

 

[NDRock]

I think the goal is to make 3rd down more manageable. When you run as well as we have this year, picking up 5 yards on 2nd down is quite common, leaving a 3rd and 5. This allows for a larger selection of plays on 3rd down (pass or run).

I guess everyone is different as it drives me crazy when we go - pass, pass, pass.

 

[Domina Nostra]

I think the goal is to make 3rd down more manageable. When you run as well as we have this year, picking up 5 yards on 2nd down is quite common, leaving a 3rd and 5. This allows for a larger selection of plays on 3rd down (pass or run).

I guess everyone is different as it drives me crazy when we go - pass, pass, pass.

Agree with all of this. I guess I just like using high percentage plays on first down, so you don't have to play as much "catch-up" on second.

While we don't run the offense, think of how triple option teams start rolling when they get positive yardage on first down, but really struggle if they get "off schedule." I think this is true of every offense, to some degree. But Kelly's maybe less than any. His teams certainly convert a lot of 3rd and longs.

 

[NDRock]

Agree with all of this. I guess I just like using high percentage plays on first down, so you don't have to play as much "catch-up" on second.

While we don't run the offense, think of how triple option teams start rolling when they get positive yardage on first down, but really struggle if they get "off schedule." I think this is true of every offense, to some degree. But Kelly's maybe less than any. His teams certainly convert a lot of 3rd and longs.

Agree. I do like when we come out running. Loved the first play to Prosise last week to get him on the edge. Our offense does seem to stall through stretches in games where we go 3 and out. Not sure if that shows up statistically. I guess it's just part of having a big play offense.

 

[kjones]

Has it?

last year on first down our mix was 217/185 run to pass.

Yes.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Yes.

I never said we don't run enough. I said that the "pass on first, run on second and long" pattern drives me crazy.

But I do understand that doing it half the time makes you very unpredictable, which leads to the defense having to stay conservative, which leads to big plays.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Im confused... Where we trying to get Carlo Kemp to come in as an offensive coordinator?

 

[dad4aa]

Im confused... Were we trying to get Carlo Kemp to come in as an offensive coordinator?

^Now that's funny!!! Reps

 

[Domina Nostra]

Im confused... Where we trying to get Carlo Kemp to come in as an offensive coordinator?

Nice! I guess I figured the mods would sort it out later.