College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[RDU Irish]

Agreed. I don't think it'll happen, but an undefeated Iowa deserves to be in. A 1-loss Iowa does not.

Which is why we should want Iowa to crap the bed against someone they should beat before the CCG and then put a whoopin' on OSU/MSU. I don't see how a CCG loser could possibly jump an 11-1 ND.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm gonna say it. I think the SEC might be our best shot. They have a tougher road to two losses than the Big 12 has to one loss.

 

[koonja]

Also think we're over looking how many favors USC, Temple, and Navy might end up doing us. Our most impressive wins might have already happened if USC goes HAM like we know they can, and Temple and Navy both have a shot to have GREAT seasons. Temple will end up ~12 if they win out, and Navy can get ranked this week by beating Memphis.

If Navy, Temple, and USC all win this week (Navy only one that's unlikely), we just went from being #5 in the polls with 1 win over a top 25, to THREE wins over top 25's. So we'd definitely move up.

Damn good day to be an Irishman!

 

[ab2cmiller]

The Chair of the committee point blank said the two teams are "very close" when asked about Alabama and Florida. I take almost no comfort in the #5 ranking. We are probably a few "split hairs" from being #10.

With that said, if we win out, I think we have a great chance. We need Stanford to come into our contest with them as highly rated as possible.

 

[Green Mountains]

Our perfect storm is"

AAC
Temple or Navy win out, we have W over AAC champ

ACC
Clemson wins out, stays number 1
Pitt wins Costal
GT, UVA, WF, and BC make noise going out

Big12
OKSt, TCU, BAY, and OKLA canabilize each other, and all end with at least one loss.
No conf championship, so they are sitting around like us with nothing to propel them past ND

BIG10
More cannibalization. scum beats OSU, OSU beat MSt, The East Champ beats Iowa. Takes the 4 spot.

MAC
Toledo loses to WMU or BG, or in MAC Championship

SEC
LSU wins out, gets #2 spot, or
Bama wins out and gets a spot with LSU losing also to Ole Miss

PAC12
Stanford wins out in-conference, loses to us, gets left out of the dance.
USC wins out and takes the South

What I always have to remind myself is that we don't need to finish 1, 2 or 3. Number 4 is just fine.

From my perspective:
We win out (obviously);
LSU wins out (I don't want to deal with a 1 lose LSU team with Alabama as the SEC champ);
Either MSU or OSU win out (that put Iowa out of the discussion);
Let the Big 12 hammer each other (I think this is going to happen). Ideally OU beats Baylor, TCU beats OU and Baylor beats TCU. But if OU wins out, I think they don't jump past the Irish;
Temple or Navy win out (help our SOS); and
Stanford wins the Pac 10.

That would put ND strongly at 4. I'd rather that clear top teams win out than have to deal with the committee making a determination of the strength of SEC one loss teams or a 1 loss Clemson team.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Also will help if USC finishes strong. If they win out they could still win the Pac-12 and in the top 10-15 range. They're capable.

 

[wizards8507]

I would love nothing more than to see the undefeated Big 12 left out. It would sent a skrong message of "cut it the f**k out scheduling Lamar. Ain't nobody gonna watch that." That would be fantastic for the game. Games like Alabama-USC to open the 2016 season should be the norm, not the exception.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FEI likelihood to win out regular season:
Clemson - 83%
LSU - 24%
Ohio St - 22%
Alabama - 36%
Notre Dame - 34%
Baylor - 9%</p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/661705848046006272">November 4, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FEI likelihood to win out regular season:
Clemson - 83%
LSU - 24%
Ohio St - 22%
Alabama - 36%
Notre Dame - 34%
Baylor - 9%</p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/661705848046006272">November 4, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow that metric gives FSU no credit at all, eh?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Which is why we should want Iowa to crap the bed against someone they should beat before the CCG and then put a whoopin' on OSU/MSU. I don't see how a CCG loser could possibly jump an 11-1 ND.

Nah. I want ND to beat Iowa in the championship game. Great for my two favorite teams.

 

[Irish YJ]

Wow that metric gives FSU no credit at all, eh?

Nor do they deserve it

 

[IrishLion]

I apologize, because all of these have probably been said, but:

We need LSU to win out, right? With the committee that high on Bama, Bama beating LSU probably just leads to a flip-flop of positions, and that would mean there are two one-loss SEC West teams that the committee is in love with. We could see a one-loss Bama win the SEC West and be in the playoff, followed by a one-loss LSU that didn't play for the SEC 'chip, but would be deserving of a shot in the playoff. That would be bad.

Aside from four straight games against quality opponents, it appears that ND is being propped up by their close loss to the #1 team in less-than-ideal conditions. So if Clemson falters, ND's resume suffers, and they probably start sliding behind the undefeated teams that remain (MSU, Baylor, TCU, etc). Let's go Dabo and Co.?

Last thing, ya'll should just mentally prepare and try to avoid the collective freakout when ND gets passed by Baylor or the other undefeated teams. Those teams have no resume-building wins yet for the most part, but they will soon. Baylor's got a brutal schedule remaining. If they keep winning, they will pass ND. Just be prepared lol.

 

[ACamp1900]

The best the Big 12 can do is one unbeaten because they still play true conference schedules... and all those teams at the top still play each other... I'm betting OSU, Baylor, TCU all pick up a loss in the next month (they all have to play each other AND OU I believe)...

I also think we can easily see this happen in the BIG with MSU, Iowa and tOSU also with them playing each other (kind of) and Michigan being respectable again...

 

[wizards8507]

Last thing, ya'll should just mentally prepare and try to avoid the collective freakout when ND gets passed by Baylor or the other undefeated teams. Those teams have no resume-building wins yet for the most part, but they will soon. Baylor's got a brutal schedule remaining. If they keep winning, they will pass ND. Just be prepared lol.

I disagree. Baylor is getting no love because they've only beat shit teams. Why would they all-of-a-sudden get love for beating teams that only have good records because they also beat shit teams? I don't think the Big 12 is going to get credit for beating each other.

If Baylor goes out and whups TCU by 30, then it's obviously a different story. But I think the whole college football community, including the committee, is sick of 63-54 shootouts.

 

[ACamp1900]

I disagree. Baylor is getting no love because they've only beat shit teams. Why would they all-of-a-sudden get love for beating teams that only have good records because they also beat shit teams?

Do you even SEC bro???

 

[wizards8507]

Do you even SEC bro???

Wisconsin vs. Alabama - Game Recap - September 5, 2015 - ESPN

Wisconsin is a 7-2 team from a Power Five conference. Baylor opened against SMU, Lamar, and Rice.

EDIT: And you just used that joke yesterday in the video game thread.

 

[IrishLion]

I disagree. Baylor is getting no love because they've only beat shit teams. Why would they all-of-a-sudden get love for beating teams that only have good records because they also beat shit teams? I don't think the Big 12 is going to get credit for beating each other.

If Baylor goes out and whups TCU by 30, then it's obviously a different story. But I think the whole college football community, including the committee, is sick of 63-54 shootouts.

I think they would have been ranked lower than 6 if that were the case. Jeff Long more or less said that Baylor and TCU will be truly evaluated once they start playing each other. And if they've seen enough to put Baylor at 6 without a true evaluation? I fear they will start moving up.

*For the record, I think the thing that sets Baylor apart is that they have a *decent* defense. They've played no one, and the Big 12 beats up on nobodies, but if Baylor's defense can hold TCU/Oklahoma/OKSt in relative check, that would be a good sign. So I wouldn't have a huge problem with 12-0 Baylor in the playoff. But that also eliminates a spot for ND, so hopefully they all beat each other up.

 

[ulukinatme]

I disagree. Baylor is getting no love because they've only beat shit teams. Why would they all-of-a-sudden get love for beating teams that only have good records because they also beat shit teams? I don't think the Big 12 is going to get credit for beating each other.

Despite the fact the 3 unbeaten Big 12 teams haven't played anyone of note, they're all 3 decent teams in their own right. If one of those teams runs the gauntlet, then they're obviously in at 12-0 which is bad for us. At 11-1 it's a little sketchier, but a team like TCU would certainly get lots of credit for beating 2 of the 3 between Oklahoma, OK State, and Baylor. If they go 11-1 and have a close loss to say...Baylor, and Baylor goes 11-1 again as well, things are going to be dicey. That's why our schedule is very important. A win over Stanford and keeping us at 11-1 probably gets us in over TCU in that circumstance, but if some of our better opponents start dropping games it's not going to help us.

 

[wizards8507]

Despite the fact the 3 unbeaten Big 12 teams haven't played anyone of note, they're all 3 decent teams in their own right. If one of those teams runs the gauntlet, then they're obviously in at 12-0 which is bad for us. At 11-1 it's a little sketchier, but a team like TCU would certainly get lots of credit for beating 2 of the 3 between Oklahoma, OK State, and Baylor. If they go 11-1 and have a close loss to say...Baylor, and Baylor goes 11-1 again as well, things are going to be dicey. That's why our schedule is very important. A win over Stanford and keeping us at 11-1 probably gets us in over TCU in that circumstance...

I think we beat any of them at 11-1 and I don't think it's close. But 12-0 is a definite possibility, which is why I'm rooting against Clemson. There's value in having a path to number 2 or 3 just in case one of our preferred scenarios to number 4 doesn't play out. Everyone is relying on the Big 12 to cannibalize, but if that doesn't happen we may be screwed. I think the "backup plan" is Clemson dropping and taking the ACC out of the playoff conversation all together.

...but if some of our better opponents start dropping games it's not going to help us.

...except Clemson. Their status as a team ranked ahead of us is more important than their status as a team we played hard in the rain on the road. Sacrificing the latter in order to eliminate the former is a trade I'd like to see happen. A lot of you guys are acting like losing by two to 11-1 Clemson in a hurricane somehow becomes a shitty loss in the eyes of the committee.

 

[ACamp1900]

you think we'd beat TCU and it wouldn't even be close??? I guess I get Baylor now that they lost their QB, but...

 

[Wingman Ray]

I apologize, because all of these have probably been said, but:

We need LSU to win out, right? With the committee that high on Bama, Bama beating LSU probably just leads to a flip-flop of positions, and that would mean there are two one-loss SEC West teams that the committee is in love with. We could see a one-loss Bama win the SEC West and be in the playoff, followed by a one-loss LSU that didn't play for the SEC 'chip, but would be deserving of a shot in the playoff. That would be bad.

Last thing, ya'll should just mentally prepare and try to avoid the collective freakout when ND gets passed by Baylor or the other undefeated teams. Those teams have no resume-building wins yet for the most part, but they will soon. Baylor's got a brutal schedule remaining. If they keep winning, they will pass ND. Just be prepared lol.

I just cant see LSU beating Bama. Bama has a really good run defense, suspect pass defense. LSU cant throw the ball to save their lives. And unfortunately, LSU losing wont drop them much and Bama winning would put them at #2. The question would be whether LSU loses to Ole Piss or A&M. If they win versus those ranked teams (Lord please tell me why Ole Piss is ranked after losing to Memphis), that will look better than our wins on out. Especially if that Bama game is neck and neck. If that is the case, we could very well see ND on the outside looking in even with winning out which would really be a load of crap.

 

[wizards8507]

you think we'd beat TCU and it wouldn't even be close??? I guess I get Baylor now that they lost their QB, but...

Not "we'd beat them in a game and it wouldn't even be close." I'm saying 11-1 Notre Dame would beat out 11-1 Big 12 champion for the fourth playoff spot and it wouldn't be close.

 

[Legacy]

Doomsday scenarios

Doomsday scenarios

Doomsday scenarios for how each Power 5 conference could get left out of the playoff

 

[ACamp1900]

Not "we'd beat them in a game and it wouldn't even be close." I'm saying 11-1 Notre Dame would beat out 11-1 Big 12 champion for the fourth playoff spot and it wouldn't be close.

got ya,...

 

[wizards8507]

I just cant see LSU beating Bama. Bama has a really good run defense, suspect pass defense. LSU cant throw the ball to save their lives. And unfortunately, LSU losing wont drop them much and Bama winning would put them at #2. The question would be whether LSU loses to Ole Piss or A&M. If they win versus those ranked teams (Lord please tell me why Ole Piss is ranked after losing to Memphis), that will look better than our wins on out. Especially if that Bama game is neck and neck. If that is the case, we could very well see ND on the outside looking in even with winning out which would really be a load of crap.

Except that USC is going to win out and Stanford will probably win the Pac-12. I don't think any other potential playoff team will be able to put "defeated power five conference champion" on their resume.

 

[IrishLion]

I just cant see LSU beating Bama. Bama has a really good run defense, suspect pass defense. LSU cant throw the ball to save their lives. And unfortunately, LSU losing wont drop them much and Bama winning would put them at #2. The question would be whether LSU loses to Ole Piss or A&M. If they win versus those ranked teams (Lord please tell me why Ole Piss is ranked after losing to Memphis), that will look better than our wins on out. Especially if that Bama game is neck and neck. If that is the case, we could very well see ND on the outside looking in even with winning out which would really be a load of crap.

I wouldn't say Bama's pass defense is suspect this year. And LSU's passing offense seems to be improving, as Harris has had three very efficient performances in a row now. I would give the edge to Bama vs LSU's passing offense. I think that game comes down to whether Bama's offense show up or not.

 

[wizards8507]

Doomsday scenarios for how each Power 5 conference could get left out of the playoff

Bahahaha.

[The Big 12 is doomed if i]t's left out. Could you imagine?! Art Briles and Gary Patterson just might carpool straight to CFP headquarters in Dallas and put up 60 points on Bill Hancock's desk.

 

[ACamp1900]

I wouldn't say Bama's pass defense is suspect this year. And LSU's passing offense seems to be improving, as Harris has had three very efficient performances in a row now. I would give the edge to Bama vs LSU's passing offense. I think that game comes down to whether Bama's offense show up or not.

Pretty much,... it will be interesting to see what LSU's running game does against that front, no one has been able to really run against bama in what, a couple of years? I'd expect Mr. Heisman to get pretty well bottled up... if bama can move the ball at all I think they roll... LSU needs this to be another low scoring game to have a shot.

 

[wizards8507]

Dudes. Could you imagine if the playoff was Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ohio State (or Michigan)? It just hit me that that's a legitimate possibility. That would be... I can't even...

 

[ACamp1900]

I do feel bad for the Big 12 in regards to this whole conference title game thing, (I get the OOC schedules wiz, just breathe),... for me I'll take an unbeaten team that played everyone in conference over a team that has one loss, dodged some major teams in their conference but won their conference title game... I'll put it this way, when was the last time bama had to play Florida, UGA, LSU all in the same season?? It's rarely happened and they're conference opponents... I guess I'm saying I respect that they have to go through everyone...