Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[gkIrish]

Wait so Kizer and Prosise success is in part because of the coaches. Yet Golson's at FSU compared to here isn't?

And Morgan and the other linebackers can't beat out Joe Schmidt but their failure isn't the coach's fault either.

 

[kmoose]

Beating Georgia Tech who was favored at the time is not worth much if it turns out that the only reason they were favored is because nobody knew how bad they really were. I'll say the exact opposite about USC. If they win out and go 9-3 with a few blowouts, I'll be extremely impressed with our victory over them.


You can imagine a world in which Kelly can do a lot of things right without being "historically" good, right? You see the tiny bit of nuance there?

Yes. But you keep throwing that word around as if the article suggested that the record Kelly was amassing was historical. That's not the way I read it, and I don't think that anyone not already biased against Kelly would read it that way. I read it that the historic part of Kelly's performance was keeping this team focused and playing at relatively high level, despite the loss of most of the key parts of his offense. Your #1 QB and #1 tailback both transfer. Then, you lose your #2 tailback in the 1st game, and your #2 QB in the second game? A lot of teams would have packed it in and quit. For fvck's sake, you should have seen the live chat when Zaire went down; I think there was maybe 3 of us in there that DIDN'T cry about the whole season being down the toilet. THOSE were the expectations for this team without Folston and Zaire. But the team has held it together, and so far has a 2 point loss to the #6 team in the country as it's only blemish. Have they beaten a bunch of Top 25 teams? No. But have they beaten real DI-A teams? Yes! Would reasonable people have doubted that most teams could go 6-1 against that schedule with their #3 tailback and #3 QB? Absolutely! And, quite honestly, it looks very positive, that this team could well be 10-1 going into Stanford. I will grant you that historic might be a little hyperbolic, but which ND coach has done better than Kelly after losing so many key players?

 

[gkIrish]

By the way guys, Central Michigan is 6-0-1 ATS. Historic season right there. Southern Miss is 6-1 too.

Michigan State is 1-6 ATS. Historically bad season for them. Their fans must be so pissed.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Let's quit calling Kizer the #3 and Zaire the #2. That's inaccurate. Kizer came in to fall as the #2 and Zaire the #1. They were coached, prepared, and practiced as such.

 

[kmoose]

not giving guys behind a personal favorite a chance to play.

Can you provide a source for the fact that Kelly refuses to play guys because he likes the starter better?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Wait so Kizer and Prosise success is in part because of the coaches. Yet Golson's at FSU compared to here isn't?

And Morgan and the other linebackers can't beat out Joe Schmidt but their failure isn't the coach's fault either.

I won't speak for everyone. I'm personally on record blaming the offensive management on BK. He put way too much on EG coming off a suspension. When things were clicking, he was unbeatable. But when he played bad....it was really bad and BK never backed off.

Look the guy isn't a saint. But I really feel like those on this board who have mislabeled you as "BK haters that want him fired" have really caused you to put up your guard and go off on every little thing BK does w/o realizing that you're discrediting him when he actually is successful just so you can maintain the beat to your drum.

I have my issues with him too, but you have to give credit when it's due and it's certinaly due. Nitpicking LAX's article etc is pretty narrow minded and stubborn.

 

[kmoose]

Let's quit calling Kizer the #3 and Zaire the #2. That's inaccurate. Kizer came in to fall as the #2 and Zaire the #1. They were coached, prepared, and practiced as such.

The 2015 football season started with Spring Ball. Kizer was the #3 QB on the roster in the Spring.

 

[koonja]

Can you provide a source for the fact that Kelly refuses to play guys because he likes the starter better?

That's a silly question because you know unless BK comes out and says 'I play certain guys more because I trust/like them better', there's no facts behind it. But after 5 years if you're observant, you pick up on things.

 

[RDU Irish]

2012 was historic, we played for a title and put a linebacker in the running for the Heisman. We make the playoffs and this year is historic. BK has us in position to do just that. If OSU taught us anything, it is not how you start it is how you finish. You also can't write the history books when half of the material hasn't happened yet.

 

[kmoose]

For all of the people criticizing the TP piece:


How about you sack up and write your own, obviously superior article, and send it to TP for publication? I'm sure he would love to utilize your unique and obviously correct insights........

 

[yankeeND]

Let's quit calling Kizer the #3 and Zaire the #2. That's inaccurate. Kizer came in to fall as the #2 and Zaire the #1. They were coached, prepared, and practiced as such.

Let's not acknowledge that our starter transferred, his back up got injured, and the third guy was contemplating a switch of sports. Got it.

 

[IrishLax]

If we are going to use Vegas lines as a measure of our success let's dive in a little bit:

Combined Record ATS of teams we faced: 18-22-2

Texas: 2-3-1
Virginia: 2-3-1
Georgia Tech: 2-5
UMass: 2-4
Clemson: 3-3
Navy: 4-1
USC: 3-3

If you want to take out our 6-1 record against them the overall combined record is 17-16-2 if I did my math right. So basically, our opponents don't cover the spread almost exactly half the time they play anyone at all. They certainly aren't world beaters ATS.

The spread for any game is always adjusted to each team's strength... over the course of the season, every single team in the country will have their opponent's ATS record be approximately .500. Every single team. Doesn't matter if your Bama or Western Kentucky, that's just the way it works.

Now, the one piece of valuable information you can glean from ATS is how an individual team is doing relative to expectations. If that singular team is covers the spread (or mathematical projection if you're looking at statistical models and not Vegas) in a game, then they exceeded expectations. If they don't, then they performed below expectations.

Ergo, ND being 6-1 ATS is relevant. The "all play" ATS record of opponent's will never, ever be a relative data point in any context.

 

[RDU Irish]

But a real fan will always favor ND by 35 points. Anything less than that is underselling our program. How have we fared against THAT spread?

 

[Irish Insanity]

For all of the people criticizing the TP piece:


How about you sack up and write your own, obviously superior article, and send it to TP for publication? I'm sure he would love to utilize your unique and obviously correct insights........

One can disagree with some of the content of an article without bashing the person writing it. Just like they can not blindly support every aspect of our staff and BK without calling for the house to be cleaned.

 

[irishfan]

If we are going to use Vegas lines as a measure of our success let's dive in a little bit:

Combined Record ATS of teams we faced: 18-22-2

Texas: 2-3-1
Virginia: 2-3-1
Georgia Tech: 2-5
UMass: 2-4
Clemson: 3-3
Navy: 4-1
USC: 3-3

If you want to take out our 6-1 record against them the overall combined record is 17-16-2 if I did my math right. So basically, our opponents don't cover the spread almost exactly half the time they play anyone at all. They certainly aren't world beaters ATS.

There are many different 6-1 records. Just because our schedule hasn't been that tough doesn't mean we shouldn't be pleased with how we have played. This isn't the Weis start in 2009 (or even like 2012/2013 under BK) where we were beating teams by one score and were lucky to be halfway through the season with a strong record. With the exception of Virginia, we have performed how the experts projected or better. Just about every computer poll I have seen has us in the Top-10 for that reason.

Every top-25 team in the country would be 6-0 with Baylor's schedule, but none of them would come close to blowing them out like Baylor is doing. IMO you're not giving enough credit to the way that we are winning, and are focusing more on the record itself and the seemingly average SOS. The computers wouldn't think so highly of us if this was an ugly 6-1 record.

 

[kmoose]

That's a stupid question because you know unless BK comes out and says 'I play certain guys more because I trust/like them better', there's no facts behind it. But after 5 years if you're observant, you pick up on things.

You're right........... and since Jan 2011, I better that there are WAY more people on here who have picked up on your nonsense, than have picked up on the exact reason why the coaches at ND play one guy over another.

Remember when you bitched up a storm that Greg Bryant wasn't being played his Freshman year, only to find out that he had tendinitis in his knee all season long, and the coaches were trying to keep him from aggravating that and having it turn into a long term thing?

 

[IrishLax]

By the way guys, Central Michigan is 6-0-1 ATS. Historic season right there. Southern Miss is 6-1 too.

Michigan State is 1-6 ATS. Historically bad season for them. Their fans must be so pissed.

Do you not understand how ATS works? I'm asking seriously, not rhetorically. You sound like a crazy old man standing on his porch right now raving about the Government coming to take his guns or something... that is how little sense you are making.

MSU's 1-6 ATS record is absolutely indicative of them looking like crap this year. They've looked really bad against really bad teams, and lucked out against Michigan (the only time they covered the spread).

So per what you just posted, there are no Power 5 teams with an equivalent ATS to Notre Dame. Thanks for affirming the point.

 

[koonja]

You're right........... and since Jan 2011, I better that there are WAY more people on here who have picked up on your nonsense, than have picked up on the exact reason why the coaches at ND play one guy over another.

Remember when you bitched up a storm that Greg Bryant wasn't being played his Freshman year, only to find out that he had tendinitis in his knee all season long, and the coaches were trying to keep him from aggravating that and having it turn into a long term thing?

Only a troll would take an on topic post and find a way to turn it personal. Classic you, troll.

 

[Irish#1]

I will say that I said a few things now that even I don't agree with. Kelly has done exactly what everyone here wanted him to do. Build depth so that when players get hurt you don't really miss a beat. Kelly is WINNING that battle.

Not everyone. Evidently some think we should be undefeated, average 50+ on offense, given up 0 on defense, be starting 22 1st Team All Americans, selling programs before the game and playing in the band at halftime.

 

[kmoose]

One can disagree with some of the content of an article without bashing the person writing it. Just like they can not blindly support every aspect of our staff and BK without calling for the house to be cleaned.

***This was simply my opinion. If you don't agree, I don't give a fvck***

 

[kmoose]

Only a troll would take an on topic post and find a way to turn it personal. Classic you, troll.

Do you need a tissue, honey?

 

[ACamp1900]

Not everyone. Evidently some think we should be undefeated, average 50+ on offense, given up 0 on defense, be starting 22 1st Team All Americans, selling programs before the game and playing in the band at halftime and play a schedule that includes Carnegie Mellon, Kalamazoo, Mount Union, Eastern Michigan, ITT Tech, and Embry Riddle.

FIFY

 

[Monk]

Let's not acknowledge that our starter transferred, his back up got injured, and the third guy was contemplating a switch of sports. Got it.

I could be mistaken here, but isn't a big reason EG left because Zaire was going to cut into his time and possibly even start over him? To me that would make it a 1A and 1B situation.

 

[Irish#1]

I will say that I said a few things now that even I don't agree with. Kelly has done exactly what everyone here wanted him to do. Build depth so that when players get hurt you don't really miss a beat. Kelly is WINNING that battle.

Beating Georgia Tech who was favored at the time is not worth much if it turns out that the only reason they were favored is because nobody knew how bad they really were. I'll say the exact opposite about USC. If they win out and go 9-3 with a few blowouts, I'll be extremely impressed with our victory over them.


You can imagine a world in which Kelly can do a lot of things right without being "historically" good, right? You see the tiny bit of nuance there?

It could possibly be that this game was circled for a long time as a win that could propel them to the NC in the eyes of the voters. They didn't deliver and they have failed to produce because of the loss.

Note: Posted before I saw Teo's response. Great minds think alike.

 

[IrishLax]

I think by far the funniest thing about the discussion today in this thread is that the article starts with a nod to Notre Dame fans irrational bitching about coaching... and then about 50% of the anti-Kelly, anti-article posts are completely nonsensical or otherwise don't understand and/or intentionally refuse to acknowledge pertinent statistics in an accurate manner.

What a bullseye.

 

[kmoose]

FIFY

Now you're talking crazy talk, ese! Estas Loco! Embry-Riddle doesn't even have a football team, brah!!!

 

[ACamp1900]

Now you're talking crazy talk, ese! Estas Loco! Embry-Riddle doesn't even have a football team, brah!!!

So they forfeit... win's a win brah.

 

[Irish Insanity]

***This was simply my opinion. If you don't agree, I don't give a fvck***

Ha. Is that still sig? I usually only get on using my phone so I don't see it

 

[connor_in]

It could possibly be that this game was circled for a long time as a win that could propel them to the NC in the eyes of the voters. They didn't deliver and they have failed to produce because of the loss.

no no no ... that's not it... that can't be it ... that never happens

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

I could be mistaken here, but isn't a big reason EG left because Zaire was going to cut into his time and possibly even start over him? To me that would make it a 1A and 1B situation.

While technically you are correct, it also doesn't discredit his point.