'12 NV OT Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame Signed LOI)

[Grahambo]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Stanley still undecided on NFLMichiganfuture <a href="http://t.co/CTgpNXeaB9">http://t.co/CTgpNXeaB9</a></p>— Keith Arnold (@KeithArnold) <a href="https://twitter.com/KeithArnold/status/544610865886945280">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“He needs another year,” Kiper said, according to Lou Somogyi. “I didn’t see the consistency week to week. Some games he had some struggles in pass protection, there were other games where he played really, really well. Flashing it and being consistent is different.

“In another year he could be a top 10 pick. Would he be that this year? No. I think he would probably be a late first or second round pick …[maybe] mid-second round. He’s got to go back.”

That opinion was echoed by former NFL personnel man Greg Gabriel. When talking to Prister, Gabriel was fairly emphatic that Stanley would do himself well by returning for another season.

“I think he’s a mid-round pick on talent. He’s athletic, but I don’t think he’s strong enough, I don’t think his technique is good enough and there’s lackadaisical play. There’s not a consistent, aggressive approach.”

Gabriel cited the benefits Zack Martin derived from not only returning for his senior season, but a fifth year as well.

“Let’s put it this way: (Stanley) ain’t no (Zack) Martin,” Gabriel said. “There’s not that down after down effort and tenacity. He doesn’t finish, and Martin is a perfect example of that. He was a fifth-year guy and got better all the time.

“Somebody could take (Stanley) high for what he could be, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to succeed and that doesn’t mean it’s right to leave. Guys get fired by making picks for what a guy could be.”

But after watching Tuitt, Niklas and Louis Nix all decide to leave South Bend without completing their eligibility and slide outside the Top 50 picks, it’s a datapoint that should give Stanley pause when seeing his player evaluation.

An even bigger one? The lack of impact that trio has made on Sundays.

Only Tuitt has started a game, with just 11 tackles on the year, and those starts came after injuries hit the Pittsburgh defensive front. Niklas made just three catches before going on the season-ending I.R., the same place where Nix has spent the entire season.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Stanley still undecided on NFLMichiganfuture <a href="http://t.co/CTgpNXeaB9">http://t.co/CTgpNXeaB9</a></p>— Keith Arnold (@KeithArnold) <a href="https://twitter.com/KeithArnold/status/544610865886945280">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

All great points by the experts but how do we know what kind of situation Stanley is in? Does his family desperately need his payday? Does he have anyone he's personally supporting (baby, girlfriend, parents, etc)? Yeah, he could secure a high first round slot by staying another year, but he could also blow his knee out (we saw what happened this year to the defensive side of the ball) and have to rely on being a FA. Maybe 3rd/4th round money will satisfy his immediate needs. After Niklas bailed early, I won't be surprised by anyone leaving early.

 

[Grahambo]

All great points by the experts but how do we know what kind of situation Stanley is in? Does his family desperately need his payday? Does he have anyone he's personally supporting (baby, girlfriend, parents, etc)? Yeah, he could secure a high first round slot by staying another year, but he could also blow his knee out (we saw what happened this year to the defensive side of the ball) and have to rely on being a FA. Maybe 3rd/4th round money will satisfy his immediate needs. After Niklas bailed early, I won't be surprised by anyone leaving early.

I get all that and so do they but they are talking strictly from a football stand point and they are right. Just because you grade out as a 1st-2nd round talent doesn't mean you are getting selected there.

 

[irishroo]

I obviously have no idea where Ronnie will end up being drafted, but much of what I've read recently seems to disagree with what's been posted here from Kiper. One article I read not long ago quoted a scout as saying that he's the best OT in all of college football, and several mocks I've seen have him as the first OT off the board and a top 10 overall pick. I don't know that I necessarily agree with that assessment, but I don't scout football players for a living. If he's legitimately looking at top half of the first round money, I think he'd be crazy to not go.

 

[Grahambo]

I obviously have no idea where Ronnie will end up being drafted, but much of what I've read recently seems to disagree with what's been posted here from Kiper. One article I read not long ago quoted a scout as saying that he's the best OT in all of college football, and several mocks I've seen have him as the first OT off the board and a top 10 overall pick. I don't know that I necessarily agree with that assessment, but I don't scout football players for a living. If he's legitimately looking at top half of the first round money, I think he'd be crazy to not go.

Part of the problem has to do with coaching staffs and GMs not being set. So many changes yet to be made so predictions are more useless now then they typically are.

I agree with Kiper and the other scout however. He needs more time. This was year 1 at LT. He needs more reps.

 

[stlnd01]

If Stanley's really a top ten pick (as opposed to a solid offensive lineman from a name brand school who can attract clicks on mock drafts in December), then he should go. But I just don't see it.
Dude's a redshirt sophomore at a position where age and experience and time in the weight room help a lot. He might get drafted on potential now. Or he can stick another year (or two) and get drafted higher on results.

As for Day, I love the guy. But if going after this year was his plan, his plan should change.

 

[koonja]

Per Rivals, if he chooses to leave to the NFL this year, he will be doing so without his degree. SIAP.

 

[MNIrishman]

All great points by the experts but how do we know what kind of situation Stanley is in? Does his family desperately need his payday? Does he have anyone he's personally supporting (baby, girlfriend, parents, etc)? Yeah, he could secure a high first round slot by staying another year, but he could also blow his knee out (we saw what happened this year to the defensive side of the ball) and have to rely on being a FA. Maybe 3rd/4th round money will satisfy his immediate needs. After Niklas bailed early, I won't be surprised by anyone leaving early.

Leaving without a degree is a terrible, terrible financial decision. This is especially true when you consider that three out of five NFL players ultimately end up in bankruptcy within a few years of leaving school. If he has external dependents, he would be doing them a grave disservice by "taking the money" now, as opposed to sitting tight and guaranteeing he'll have income for a good long time.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Leaving without a degree is a terrible, terrible financial decision. This is especially true when you consider that three out of five NFL players ultimately end up in bankruptcy within a few years of leaving school. If he has external dependents, he would be doing them a grave disservice by "taking the money" now, as opposed to sitting tight and guaranteeing he'll have income for a good long time.

Not going pro is a terrible decision IMO. College is ALWAYS available, regardless of age.

 

[phork]

Not going pro is a terrible decision IMO. College is ALWAYS available, regardless of age.

College is always available, but seldom returned to. Its one of those things that if you don't do it now, you aren't gonna do it.

 

[wizards8507]

Leaving without a degree is a terrible, terrible financial decision.

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

 

[MNIrishman]

Not going pro is a terrible decision IMO. College is ALWAYS available, regardless of age.

How are you going to support dependents if you go back to school, especially if you're bankrupt like most NFL players eventually are. If you can't live the rest of your life on that first contract, you shouldn't go until you have a solid plan B. If that's not college, that's fine (Know a trade? Military route sound good?), but if your plan A has a 60% failure rate, and you don't have a backup plan, it's an objectively bad decision to leave early.

 

[wizards8507]

How are you going to support dependents if you go back to school, especially if you're bankrupt like most NFL players eventually are. If you can't live the rest of your life on that first contract, you shouldn't go until you have a solid plan B. If that's not college, that's fine (Know a trade? Military route sound good?), but if your plan A has a 60% failure rate, and you don't have a backup plan, it's an objectively bad decision to leave early.

You CAN live the rest of your life on the first contract. You can live the rest of your life on the SIGNING BONUS alone.

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

 

[MNIrishman]

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

Sure, if you have smart financial management and live within your means by operating under the assumption that your NFL earnings aren't guaranteed beyond where your contract ends. I'm not personally (that's an invitation to a counter example, gentlemen) aware of any NFL player who lives exclusively on his capital gains.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

Great post. That is the dream: get to where your capital gains keep you afloat or fill a large percentage of your yearly expenses. This isn't outside the realm of possibility for most if they make wise purchases and not over-consume. Some can do it while over-consuming.

 

[Wild Bill]

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

I don't disagree with you but these guys are actually taking home about half that after they pay taxes and their agent.

 

[MNIrishman]

You CAN live the rest of your life on the first contract. You can live the rest of your life on the SIGNING BONUS alone.

There wasn't a reading comprehension error, just a timing one. I started writing before you posted that statement.

 

[zelezo vlk]

From everything I'm seeing, the guys who like Stanley are REALLY high on him, but everyone else is saying go back to school because they're not even sure if he'd get picked in the second.

 

[wizards8507]

Sure, if you have smart financial management and live within your means by operating under the assumption that your NFL earnings aren't guaranteed beyond where your contract ends. I'm not personally (that's an invitation to a counter example, gentlemen) aware of any NFL player who lives exclusively on his capital gains.

Oh I completely agree that nobody DOES this, I'm just saying they absolutely CAN do it. But in that case I'd argue that the "poor financial decision" is living beyond your means, not leaving college early to go get millions of dollars.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't have time to research this at the moment, but Irish players who have played out their eligibility under Kelly seem to have: (1) been drafted earlier; and (2) performed better in the league, than those who came out early.

 

[MNIrishman]

Oh I completely agree that nobody DOES this, I'm just saying they absolutely CAN do it. But in that case I'd argue that the "poor financial decision" is living beyond your means, not leaving college early to go get millions of dollars.

I'm going to go ahead and say we agree then, especially since capital gains and smart financial management can be said to constitute the 'plan b' I described earlier.

There's also something to be said for Whiskey's point, that returning often allows players to attain a better financial windfall. It'd be interesting to see the analysis on this incorporating average draft position changes, injuries, etc.

 

[MNIrishman]

Oh I completely agree that nobody DOES this, I'm just saying they absolutely CAN do it. But in that case I'd argue that the "poor financial decision" is living beyond your means, not leaving college early to go get millions of dollars.

Also, can you really passively spin off more than 10% a year with low risk? I don't know anything about investing, so I'm genuinely curious here.

 

[wizards8507]

Also, can you really passively spin off more than 10% a year with low risk? I don't know anything about investing, so I'm genuinely curious here.

Long-term, yeah you should be able to average that. It'll be volatile from year to year but a 40 year investment life should give you something in the 8-12 percent range if you're in really solid funds.

 

[RDU Irish]

No. It isn't.

Zack Martin got a $4.8M signing bonus. Even if he never played a single down in the NFL, he could stick that money in some vanilla mutual funds and spit off about $500,000 every single year in perpetuity without ever touching the principal. How many Mendoza grads will ever earn $500,000 a year even once, let alone for ever and always for their kids and grandkids as well.

Louis Nix was drafted in the third round and got a signing bonus of $575,000. Again, if he never plays a snap of professional football and invests it wisely, that's $60,000 a year in capital gains without doing a lick of work.

Not even freaking close.

#1) Taxes - He might see $3 million of that $5 million signing bonus if he is lucky.

#2) If you try to live off of a 10%+ withdrawal rate you are insane as a 60 year old. As a 30 year old you almost guarantee failure. The debate now is whether a 5% withdrawal rate is too much for retirees and 4% is more reasonable.

#3) REALISTICALLY - Martin might bank $2.5M of the $5M and have a viable long term 4% withdrawal rate that would still allow income to grow some with inflation. That puts him at $100,000 per year. That is a reasonable, baseline expectation for someone looking to live off their money. Nix needs a paycheck. $575k ain't going very far and he would be lucky if what is left could produce more than $20k/year income.

 

[RDU Irish]

That "plan" gets someone slaughtered who retires in 2007. Dollar cost averaging works the same way in reverse, to your detriment. Your 8-12% assumptions might be good long term for a 100% stock based portfolio, but then again - in the long run we are all dead! Actual income from that portfolio might be 2% if you are lucky, meaning you need to sell shares (own less) every year for 4 of every 5 dollars you are spending. In the meantime, inflation is killing you since you are spending all gains.

 

[Luckylucci]

That "plan" gets someone slaughtered who retires in 2007. Dollar cost averaging works the same way in reverse, to your detriment. Your 8-12% assumptions might be good long term for a 100% stock based portfolio, but then again - in the long run we are all dead! Actual income from that portfolio might be 2% if you are lucky, meaning you need to sell shares (own less) every year for 4 of every 5 dollars you are spending. In the meantime, inflation is killing you since you are spending all gains.

I don't usually comment on these topics but very very well said. Reps, for your first post as well.

 

[Grahambo]

That "plan" gets someone slaughtered who retires in 2007. Dollar cost averaging works the same way in reverse, to your detriment. Your 8-12% assumptions might be good long term for a 100% stock based portfolio, but then again - in the long run we are all dead! Actual income from that portfolio might be 2% if you are lucky, meaning you need to sell shares (own less) every year for 4 of every 5 dollars you are spending. In the meantime, inflation is killing you since you are spending all gains.

No idea what you said but I like it.

 

[wizards8507]

Remind me not to let RDU manage MY mutual fund investing. 4%?

 

[koonja]

Remind me not to let RDU manage MY mutual fund investing. 4%?

Hey man, I followed your advice and have a YTD return of -.56%, lol.

 

[wizards8507]

Hey man, I followed your advice and have a YTD return of -.56%, lol.

That's Obama's fault, not mine. I'm at 5%. Plus, I'm talking long term AVERAGE.