CFB Playoff

[RallySonsOfND]

I want utter chaos.

Go Mizzou

Wreck 'em Tech

Bear Down Wildcats

Go KSU

On Wisconsin

 

[phork]

Isn't that what they're already doing?

No. Because everyone was still using the polls and MissSt and OleMiss got their by shit stomping bad TexasAM and SCarolina teams.

 

[IrishLax]

Total Score: TCU: 58 BU: 61
First downs: TCU: 23 BU: 39
Total Yards: TCU: 485 BU: 782
Yards per pass: TCU: 7.2 BU: 9.3
Yards per carry: TCU 3.4 BU: 5.0
Turnovers: TCU: 1 BU: 3

If head to head games mean anything anymore, Baylor deserves to be in over TCU

Did you watch the game? Serious question, not rhetorical.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Did you watch the game? Serious question, not rhetorical.

Only parts and highlights. And yea, the no-call/call on the PIs at the end of the game were bad, but questionable calls are part of the game. It would be one thing if TCU had a clearly more difficult schedule than BU (like FSU did compared to ND in 92-93) but playing Minnesota shouldn't be a better tie breaker than a head to head win, even if a couple calls weren't the best.

As it is, it might not matter. Baylor plays a 9-2 team this week, TCU plays a 2-9 team. Given the committee's willingness to shuffle teams around, I would not be shocked to see Baylor jump TCU if they win convincingly against KSU.

At this rate they could both get in over FSU.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

If the apocalypse happens I would want it to be Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Arizona. Reward conference champs. Of course they would never pass on the big money schools like Bama and FSU.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I thought going in to last weekend that if Ohio State won out they could get to the #4 slot. I also thought that if Baylor and TCU won out, Baylor would get the nod over TCU, simply due to winning the head to head. Neither team's OOC schedule was very good, although I would give the nod to TCU there. But Minn does not trump the fact Baylor did beat TCU. The eye test says TCU is better but does the win by Baylor not count? Plus, a big win by Baylor over K State - a top 10 team coming in - should be enough to give them the last slot.

In the end, if everything stays as it is and everyone wins who is in contention, my prediction would be:

1. Oregon
2. Bama
3. Fla St
4. Baylor
5. TCU
6. Ohio St

 

[BleedBlueGold]

This weekend will either help the committee or it will royally fuq them. I actually look forward to the chaos.

Notable SOS (currently):

Oregon - 34
Arizona - 35 (and they beat Oregon...but fuq head-to-head, right? Yes, I know they have two losses. I'm not arguing AZ to be in the Top 4. I'm just saying that it's worth noting)

TCU - 31
Baylor - 66 (Baylor has the head-to-head but a much weaker SOS. KState will help that while ISU will hurt TCU a little)

FSU - 49
OSU - 60
Mich St - 58 (Seriously why are they in the top 10? They've played two good teams and got killed by both. Their "quality win" is against an un-ranked Nebraska team that just fired their coach)


As a reminder, here's the protocol: College Football Playoff

 

[ND NYC]

back to FSU, slotted at #4, with no losses:

in the future, lets say an ND team is 12-0 and is slotted 4th (just like FSU now) with a chance to slip due to no Championship game, then what do we do?

take a look at our schedule next year, do you think running the table vs that schedule is enough to these people?

my point is t hat: if an undefeated, regining national champ who plays in my view a perfectly ok SOS, in theory may not make this playoff how the hell should we think we would at 12-0 much less 11-1.

this whole committee is a g-ddam joke. its basically an "eyeball test" only IMO. subjective to the max. bias everywhere.

ND never "wins big", has no conf champ game, is hated by just about every member of that committee, and if need be they could look at the navy, umass, temple games next year as reasons we didn't play enough good teams.

 

[IrishLax]

Only parts and highlights. And yea, the no-call/call on the PIs at the end of the game were bad, but questionable calls are part of the game. It would be one thing if TCU had a clearly more difficult schedule than BU (like FSU did compared to ND in 92-93) but playing Minnesota shouldn't be a better tie breaker than a head to head win, even if a couple calls weren't the best.

As it is, it might not matter. Baylor plays a 9-2 team this week, TCU plays a 2-9 team. Given the committee's willingness to shuffle teams around, I would not be shocked to see Baylor jump TCU if they win convincingly against KSU.

At this rate they could both get in over FSU.

Yeah, despite stats, TCU had complete control of that game until the 4th quarter got a bit whacky. And they got hosed on some calls.

If both schools win this weekend, TCU will have a MUCH better 'loss' and Baylor will have better-ish 'wins' and the H2H. I think the final SOS rankings will have TCU anywhere from 10-30 spots ahead of Baylor, which is significant. It'll be intriguing to see what the committee does.

 

[wizards8507]

The College Football Playoff Is Already Amazing «

 

[ickythump1225]

Nebraska and nine other teams. They're 10-2. You don't win ten games without being halfway decent at football as much as you'd like so shit on them.

The Big Ten has five quality teams. Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska. I guess I'm sorry they don't hold up to NFL standards. It's college football we're dealing with here. It's arguably a better conference than the ACC. The Pac-12, SEC, and Big 12 have separated themselves from the rest of course.

Yeah but none of those teams could hang with the greatest 6-6 team of all time: Arkansas.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Yeah but none of those teams could hang with the greatest 6-6 team of all time: Arkansas.

Sniping early today icky....

 

[ickythump1225]

back to FSU, slotted at #4, with no losses:

in the future, lets say an ND team is 12-0 and is slotted 4th (just like FSU now) with a chance to slip due to no Championship game, then what do we do?

take a look at our schedule next year, do you think running the table vs that schedule is enough to these people?

my point is t hat: if an undefeated, regining national champ who plays in my view a perfectly ok SOS, in theory may not make this playoff how the hell should we think we would at 12-0 much less 11-1.

this whole committee is a g-ddam joke. its basically an "eyeball test" only IMO. subjective to the max. bias everywhere.

ND never "wins big", has no conf champ game, is hated by just about every member of that committee, and if need be they could look at the navy, umass, temple games next year as reasons we didn't play enough good teams.

Though a rather large part of me enjoys the schadenfreude of watching those POS scumbags win and continue to slid in the rankings...another part of me is very concerned as to what this says about the integrity of the CFP committee. ND could very easily find itself in FSU's shoes and I certainly would be pissed then. I hate this committee and I've hated it since it was first announced. It's like they make crap up as they go along and what they reward one team for, they punish another. I miss the BCS.

 

[irishfan]

This committee pretty much has shot themselves in the foot the whole way. They shouldn't have released rankings so early in the season if they were going to release them every week.

--They were so influenced by early season rankings in their initial Top 25 and have been hesistant to drop teams since then despite these schools having weaker resumes now than in Ocotober. Case in point, TCU being this far ahead of Baylor still...or Miss St at #4 last week with one Top-25 win.

--Since they released their rankings in October, wins over teams like A&M, LSU, Oklahoma all carried very serious weight. TCU and Miss St were the two main beneficiaries of this.

--Because of this, they've had to do ridiculous reasoning. Such as Long saying that Miss St played teams that were previously ranked, or played a close game at Bama (when he said Bama clearly won). Or still finding a way to prop up that TCU win over Minnesota. And completely ignoring the fact that not only did Baylor beat TCU, but they out-gained TCU by 297 yards! They've talked about game control, but just a simple glance at the Baylor/TCU box score would show that Baylor is by far the better team.

--I think they have tailored their rankings to predictions as well. They tried to make a statement early by having teams like ND or Baylor rated much lower than the pollsters had them due to weak schedules. I honestly think they assumed NdD and Baylor would lose again, but wanted to make examples out of them while they were still playoff relevant. They've crucified Baylor for their OOC schedule, and Baylor is still being hurt by it depsite the fact that they're schedule is pretty much exactly on par with TCU/OSU right now.

--Finally, their 3-6 rankings this past week made absolutely no sense, and they're really setting themselves up for some serious backlash when the Final 4 comes out. I'm preidcting its going to be 1) Bama 2) Oregon 3) FSU 4) Baylor 5)TCU. It's going to be tough to justfy dropping TCU two spots in one week. It would have made much more sense to have them at #4 and Baylor at #5, so that Baylor jump would be much easier to explain.

--I'd also love to hear an argument for OSU>Baylor right now. Baylor has wins over #3 and #20. And a loss at WVU. OSU has a win over #8 MSU and previously ranked Minny. And a worse loss at home.

So, ya. I think they should have come out with 3 rankings. Week 10 (10/28), Week 13 (11/18), and Week 16 (12/9). It would have been much easier to justify jumps and drops in rankings if they had done this.

 

[T Town Tommy]

The fundamental responsibility of the committee is to place the four best teams in the playoff. That's it. What makes the committee's decisions questionable is who they think the four best teams are. That's it.

Wins, losses, who beat who in September, where they were ranked, etc. is really just clutter to their overall responsibility. The four best teams, according to them. That's why an undefeated Fla St sits at fourth.

What is open for debate is all the reasoning they throw out there. If I were Jeff Long, I would say the same thing each week and it would be this simple phrase.

"This is who the committee feels is the four best teams right now. Our job is to decide who we feel is the four best teams and that is what we have done. It may change next week but for now, these are the four. Have a nice day."

I am not saying this is right. I am not saying I agree with it. But that is the mandate the committee was given.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Though a rather large part of me enjoys the schadenfreude of watching those POS scumbags win and continue to slid in the rankings...another part of me is very concerned as to what this says about the integrity of the CFP committee. ND could very easily find itself in FSU's shoes and I certainly would be pissed then. I hate this committee and I've hated it since it was first announced. It's like they make crap up as they go along and what they reward one team for, they punish another. I miss the BCS.

I don't think many of us are wild about the committee and how they've done so far, but I understand that this is all a new process. They're learning as they go, working the bugs out, and trying to figure out how to determine the 4 best teams in a season where things have been unusually muddled. I'm hoping they'll do a better job in the future. That being said, I'd much rather just see the conference champ from the Power 5 plus the next 3 highest rated teams according to something like the BCS formula or some reasonable combination of various polls.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I don't think many of us are wild about the committee and how they've done so far, but I understand that this is all a new process. They're learning as they go, working the bugs out, and trying to figure out how to determine the 4 best teams in a season where things have been unusually muddled. I'm hoping they'll do a better job in the future. That being said, I'd much rather just see the conference champ from the Power 5 plus the next 3 highest rated teams according to something like the BCS formula or some reasonable combination of various polls.

Every year this sort of thing happens. This isn't unusual to have 4-6 teams vying for the top spots and best bowls.

Completely agree with the second bolded part. It's become blatantly obvious that they need to 1) extend to 8 teams and 2) incorporate computer rankings. Humans just aren't that capable of analyzing that much data and processing it objectively.

 

[koonja]

What happens if FSU wins a really close game and either OSU or Baylor blowout their opponent?

I really don't see what problem this committee solves. They add in the 'eye test'? No thanks. Remember when ND and Texas AM were top 5 teams?

Use the freaking BCS system. It's unbias and its only 'flaw' was that the point differentials were so small in some cases (.9897 vs. .9889) and only 2 teams got into the tournament.

Expand the # of teams. Don't change the system. This committee is the worst.

 

[ND NYC]

in the old BCS computer what the ranking be today?

just wondering who would be the final 2 in the "old" system as of right now.

I'm confident FSU would be #1 in the old BCS

they should have just taken the best 4 of the old BCS computer ranking system...

 

[MNIrishman]

Every year this sort of thing happens. This isn't unusual to have 4-6 teams vying for the top spots and best bowls.

Completely agree with the second bolded part. It's become blatantly obvious that they need to 1) extend to 8 teams and 2) incorporate computer rankings. Humans just aren't that capable of analyzing that much data and processing it objectively.

They absolutely are. They just chose the wrong humans. I've said it before: if you insist on having people on the process, choose some NFL-loving data scientists from the Northeast.

 

[Rocket89]

in the old BCS computer what the ranking be today?

just wondering who would be the final 2 in the "old" system as of right now.

I'm confident FSU would be #1 in the old BCS

they should have just taken the best 4 of the old BCS computer ranking system...

Here’s What The BCS Standings Would Look Like Right Now, After Week 14 | College Spun – Social. Local. Consumable. College Sports.

1. Alabama, Alabama
2. Florida State, Oregon
3. Oregon, TCU
4. TCU, Florida State

Same 4 teams. Argh, what will everyone rage about now?

 

[HoosierMP33]

Just a quick thought....but is it possible that they (the committee) are strategically ranking the top 4 based upon geographic location and travel for fans? I mean, 'Bama vs FSU in New Orleans gets more fans to travel; as it is local compared to going across country to take a spot against Oregon vs TCU/Baylor?? Just makes more sense that way...but if that were the case, would it not be smart to set-up a regional semi-final and just call it that (as much as is possible depending on the teams involved)? Just sayin'....FSU students aren't going across country to see FSU play Oregon/TCU/Baylor.....but they would prolly go to New Orleans to see FSU play 'Bama.....rankings are irrelevant once you're in the top 4....all that matters is getting in.....

Now if they moved to 8 teams (5 conf champs and 3 at-large) then the first round could be played at the higher ranked schools home stadium; thus making rankings relevant....but under this current 4 team playoff, neutral site, type of format, rankings mean nothing.

 

[Emcee77]

I meant that, by selecting people who are experts at handling large data sets instead of sitting AD's, you'd get a much more balanced view of how things are. They can watch games, but would likely rely on statistical analysis (what the BCS generally failed to do with its arcane and confusing methods). This is what you really want from the 'computers', (poorly designed algorithms) right?

+1. It would be a better system than the current one. I really dislike this "panel of experts" approach.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Just a quick thought....but is it possible that they (the committee) are strategically ranking the top 4 based upon geographic location and travel for fans? I mean, 'Bama vs FSU in New Orleans gets more fans to travel; as it is local compared to going across country to take a spot against Oregon vs TCU/Baylor?? Just makes more sense that way...but if that were the case, would it not be smart to set-up a regional semi-final and just call it that (as much as is possible depending on the teams involved)? Just sayin'....FSU students aren't going across country to see FSU play Oregon/TCU/Baylor.....but they would prolly go to New Orleans to see FSU play 'Bama.....rankings are irrelevant once you're in the top 4....all that matters is getting in.....

Now if they moved to 8 teams (5 conf champs and 3 at-large) then the first round could be played at the higher ranked schools home stadium; thus making rankings relevant....but under this current 4 team playoff, neutral site, type of format, rankings mean nothing.

Entirely possible and has been discussed as one of the reasons why Fla St was dropped to fourth. Will be interesting to see if they beat Ga Tech if they will move back up over TCU. I would think they would and if so, that would eliminate the geographical theory.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I'm against completely throwing out the eyeball test. It's very easy to envision a situation where the Big Bang guys or the computers have Team X in the playoffs, but almost every knowledgeable fan in the country believes they'd get dominated by the next team just outside the playoff bubble. It's why the BCS used a mixture of computers and human polls.

 

[Circa]

Ohio State vs Alabama
FSU vs Oregon

NCAA College Football Teams, Scores, Stats, News, Standings, Rumors - College Football - ESPN

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Just read Bama has been the favorite in their last 68 straight games. That's insane.

 

[MNIrishman]

Sugar bowl home game for Bama. Lame.

 

[wizards8507]

I thought they were supposed to mix and match the seeds to make sure nobody had home field advantage. It should be Bama vs. FSU in California and Oregon vs. Ohio State in Louisiana. Bama and Oregon have stupid geographic advantage.

 

[MNIrishman]

I thought they were supposed to mix and match the seeds to make sure nobody had home field advantage. It should be Bama vs. FSU in California and Oregon vs. Ohio State in Louisiana. Bama and Oregon have stupid geographic advantage.

Oregon's advantage is limited compared to Alabama. 12 hrs away vs. 4 hrs. An Alabama fan could make a day trip out of that, not even counting the fact that the game is solidly in their overly enthusiastic conference footprint. Alabama is the last team needing an unfair advantage.