2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Buster Bluth]

My breakdown of those GOP candidates...

The "kill me now.." group":

Ted Cruz
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Paul Ryan

The "oh fuck please no" group:

Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker

The "warmer...warmer...." group:

Chris Christie

The "I can live with that" group:

Rand Paul
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Mitt Romney

 

[Buster Bluth]

How would the Socialist and the Libertarian end up on the same ticket?

#StandWithRand

Yeah that's why it won't happen obviously. But they do have plenty of similarities, mainly the dismantling of the corporatist state, which in my opinion is the single biggest problem in America. They are the only two people who have better than 1% odds of getting a party nomination.

Ralph Nader latest book is all about convergence points where the Right and Left agree. You might want to check it out. It's called Unstoppable.

Here's an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal review:

In the battle to defend free markets, it is not always easy to know who your friends and enemies are. In "Unstoppable," Ralph Nader argues that there are in fact surprising areas of convergence between the left and the right in the battle against corporate statism. Convergence, he believes, is especially needed now: Statist forces have grown dramatically in recent years, pushing for massive bailouts of financial institutions and taxpayer subsidies to major corporations.

Mr. Nader, the consumer crusader who ran for president to the left of Al Gore, is perhaps the last person one would expect to admire a libertarian critique of the corporate state. But in "Unstoppable" he respectfully describes the views of Ludwig Von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek, Milton Friedman, George Stigler and other free-market economists. He praises their distrust of politicians, lobbyists and businessmen who seek to put government power in the service of corporate profit.

Not that the Republican Party is always guided by such thinkers. Mr. Nader neatly describes how corporatist RINOs (Republican In Name Only) co-opt the party's anti-statist crusaders. "The corporatist Republicans," he writes, "let the libertarians and conservatives have the paper platforms . . . and then move into office, where they are quick to throw out a welcome mat for Big Business lobbyists with their slush funds." He cites Adam Smith's suspicion of regulations that benefit special interests: "Such restraints favor the privileged interests that want to entrench their economic advantages through the force of law."

Simply saying, even someone who considers themselves primarily a socialist has plenty to agree with when it comes to libertarianism at the federal level.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Does anyone truly think Biden is a viable candidate? That is outside of (God forbid)anything happening to Obama and Biden getting the sympathy/continuation of government vote so close after taking over.

Biden would be a pathetic candidate but I do admire his willingness to speak the truth more than other politicians. That's a positive trait and people sometimes knock it solely as being gaffe-prone.

Part of me thinks he'd be a better President than Obama.

 

[ND NYC]

This thread is to have a snap shot of who is running for president; and what and how they are doing. I'll update this OP as things change so people have easy reference to who's in and who's out.

The first caucuses are currently scheduled for Jan. 18, 2016 in Iowa; and the first primary is scheduled to be in New Hampshire on Jan. 26, 2016.

Early Front-runners:

Republican:
Jeb Bush (former Gov - FL)
Chris Christie (Gov - NJ)
Ted Cruz (Sen - TX)
Rand Paul (Sen - KY)
Rick Perry (Gov - TX)
Marco Rubio (Sen - FL)

Democrat:
Joe Biden (VP - DE)
Hillary Clinton (former Sec. of State; former Sen - NY)
Elizabeth Warren (Sen - MA)


Next Tier

Republican:
Ben Carson (neurosurgeon)
Mike Huckabee (former Gov - AR)
Bobby Jindal (Gov - LA)
John Kasich (Gov - OH)
Mitt Romney (former Gov - MA)
Paul Ryan (Rep - WI)
Rick Santorum (former Sen - PA)
Scott Walker (Gov - WI)

Democrat:
Andrew Cuomo (Gov - NY)
Kirsten Gillibrand (Sen - NY)
Amy Klobuchar (Sen - MN)
Martin O'Malley (Gov - MD) *did not run for re-election/lame duck
Brian Schweitzer (former Gov - MT)
Mark Warner (Sen - VA)


Sleepers/Longshots

Republican
Michelle Bachman (Rep - MN)
Marsha Blackburn (Rep - TN)
John Bolton (former UN ambassador - MD)
Jan Brewer (Gov - AZ) *did not run for re-election/lame duck
Scott Brown (former Sen - MA)
Bob Corker (Sen - TN)
Carly Fiorina (businesswoman)
Lindsey Graham (Sen - SC)
Nikki Haley (Gov - SC)
Pete King (Rep - NY)
Steve King (Rep - IA)
George Pataki (former Gov - NY)
Mike Pence (Gov - IN)
Rob Portman (Sen - OH)
Brian Sandoval (Gov - NV)

Democrat
Joe Manchin (Sen - WV)
Jim Webb (former Sen - VA)

Independent / 3rd party
Tom Hoefling (Am Ind Party) (IA)
Gary Johnson (Lib) (former Gov - NM)
Bernie Sanders (I) (Sen - VT)
Dr. Jill Stein (Green) (MA)

is this the best we have as a country?

where are the five stars?

 

[Booslum31]

Biden would be a pathetic candidate but I do admire his willingness to speak the truth more than other politicians. That's a positive trait and people sometimes knock it solely as being gaffe-prone.

Part of me thinks he'd be a better President than Obama.

I'd agree he'd be better than obama and he does say what's on his mind...you don't have to ever wonder where he really stands on a topic. There's something refreshing about that.

 

[BGIF]

GOP eyes 32 presidential candidates including Cruz, Palin, Ron Paul | WashingtonExaminer.com

The List

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte

Former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush

Businessman Herman Cain

Dr. Ben Carson

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz

Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal

Ohio Gov. John Kasich

New York Rep. Peter King

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul

Former Rep. Ron Paul

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence

Texas Gov. Rick Perry

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan

Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

South Dakota Sen. John Thune

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker

Former Florida Rep. Allen West

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

GOP eyes 32 presidential candidates including Cruz, Palin, Ron Paul | WashingtonExaminer.com

The List

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte

Former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush

Businessman Herman Cain

Dr. Ben Carson

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz

Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal

Ohio Gov. John Kasich

New York Rep. Peter King

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul

Former Rep. Ron Paul

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence

Texas Gov. Rick Perry

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan

Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

South Dakota Sen. John Thune

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker

Former Florida Rep. Allen West

I would love to see Palin run because it would be hilarious. She won't run, but will be like Donald Trump constantly saying he's thinking about it just to keep his name out there.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Can't claim to love any of the democratic candidates and I'm not endorsing any of them, but quite honestly I don't see how whoever is nominated doesn't win. That has nothing to do with the candidates and everything to do with electoral politics and demographics. Hell, if Obama could run again 2016 he would win regardless of the polls and approval ratings today (we are basically in the exact same situation as we were in 2010 only with a slightly better economy).

Republicans will continue to dominate midterm elections because of those same demographics and voting tendencies and successful gerrymandering, but I don't think the Republican Party as currently constituted will win another presidential election. If they concentrate on economics and foreign policy they eventually could turn a purple state red, but the right wing social issues are so toxic and voting habits and identity politics are so ingrained I just don't see how the math can work. I think we are stuck with democratic president and republican congress for the foreseeable future, which means years and years of horrible approval ratings for everyone and absolutely nothing of any real significance being accomplished in Washington.

 

[connor_in]

My breakdown of those GOP candidates...

The "kill me now.." group":

Ted Cruz
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Paul Ryan

The "oh fuck please no" group:

Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker

The "warmer...warmer...." group:

Chris Christie

The "I can live with that" group:

Rand Paul
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Mitt Romney

Don't know anything about Carson. Why is he part of the kill me now group?

 

[tussin]

Don't know anything about Carson. Why is he part of the kill me now group?

Probably a combination of lack of credentials and notoriety based off one major speech. He'd be the least experienced candidate the GOP can throw out there.

 

[GATTACA!]

My breakdown of those GOP candidates...

The "kill me now.." group":

Ted Cruz
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Paul Ryan

The "oh fuck please no" group:

Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker

The "warmer...warmer...." group:

Chris Christie

The "I can live with that" group:

Rand Paul
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Mitt Romney

Why do you have Rubio in the oh fuck please no group? Florida will be a key state again of course.

Also i would drop Romney from the i can live with that group. It didnt work the first time it certainly wont work a second. He is far too rich and white. I think you can pretty much drop all of the failures from 2012 Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum (FUCK NO), Rick Perry, Romney.

 

[Booslum31]

Why do you have Rubio in the oh fuck please no group? Florida will be a key state again of course.

Also i would drop Romney from the i can live with that group. It didnt work the first time it certainly wont work a second. He is far too rich and white. I think you can pretty much drop all of the failures from 2012 Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum (FUCK NO), Rick Perry, Romney.

Yep. nobody from the last race...nobody!

 

[Buster Bluth]

Why do you have Rubio in the oh fuck please no group? Florida will be a key state again of course.

Also i would drop Romney from the i can live with that group. It didnt work the first time it certainly wont work a second. He is far too rich and white. I think you can pretty much drop all of the failures from 2012 Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum (FUCK NO), Rick Perry, Romney.

I'm not judging them as national candidates but as how I would react if they won.

 

[ACamp1900]

Ben Carson?

 

[Catholics_Rule]

I'm a poly sci grad ad and was a member of the college republicans at WMU. In 2006 we were named the best college republican charter in the country. We had a good influence on campus and brought in several high profile names to speak at campus, Pat Buchanan, Ann Coulter, Dinesh D'Souza, Michelle Malkin, John Ashcroft, and Judge Roy Moore and some others. I had a good time in college with the group and it was a good experience. I interned for a state Rep. in Michigan and since graduation I've really can't stomach the republican establishment. I describe myself an independent Catholic conservative.

I can't believe it, but I think its about time for a third party. I got a call from the GOP asking for money, etc; and the conversation did NOT end well. We went back and forth and I finally told the guy, "look, there's two parties in this country that represents two classss of people. If your poor the Democratic Party is for you, if your rich, there Republican Party is for you, if your in the middle get your ass to work because you've gotta pay for those two groups. Click".

With my eduaction and experience I just don't care anymore.

 

[irishog77]

I guess some see Carson's lack of experience working for the government as a bad thing. I see that as a good thing.

I guess I find it more curious that people who want to see more candidates that are independent thinkers and not mired in the same ole, same ole of d.c. bullshit want to see candidates that are, well, veterans of party politics and comfortable in the d.c. bullshit.

 

[wizards8507]

On the "Hillary would win in a landslide because of the female vote" argument, I'm not buying it. Anyone who would vote for Mrs. Clinton just because she's a woman is voting Democrat no matter what, just like anyone who voted for Obama just because he's black would have voted Democrat no matter what. Obama won because he was the "cool" candidate for white Gen Xers and Millennials. Hillary is more like Mitch McConnell (old and boring) than she is like candidate Obama (young and hip). Worse, she'll have to defend Obama's policies or find some way to pivot around them, because "eight years of Democratic policies" is what the Republican candidate will be campaigning against.

 

[NDohio]

I guess some see Carson's lack of experience working for the government as a bad thing. I see that as a good thing.

I guess I find it more curious that people who want to see more candidates that are independent thinkers and not mired in the same ole, same ole of d.c. bullshit want to see candidates that are, well, veterans of party politics and comfortable in the d.c. bullshit.

So true. The old guard are always the ones that make it through the primaries and the new, fresh, non-political type can't get past that step.

 

[tussin]

I guess some see Carson's lack of experience working for the government as a bad thing. I see that as a good thing.

I guess I find it more curious that people who want to see more candidates that are independent thinkers and not mired in the same ole, same ole of d.c. bullshit want to see candidates that are, well, veterans of party politics and comfortable in the d.c. bullshit.

My concern is less about party politics or domestic issues, it's about his ability to respond to a potential geopolitical threat. I may be wrong and he'd be a great president, I really don't know. It's just a risky potential pick by the GOP.

 

[Rhode Irish]

On the "Hillary would win in a landslide because of the female vote" argument, I'm not buying it. Anyone who would vote for Mrs. Clinton just because she's a woman is voting Democrat no matter what, just like anyone who voted for Obama just because he's black would have voted Democrat no matter what. Obama won because he was the "cool" candidate for white Gen Xers and Millennials. Hillary is more like Mitch McConnell (old and boring) than she is like candidate Obama (young and hip). Worse, she'll have to defend Obama's policies or find some way to pivot around them, because "eight years of Democratic policies" is what the Republican candidate will be campaigning against.

I don't know of any person anywhere who follows this stuff to any degree advancing an argument that Hillary would win because of the "female vote." There are slightly more nuanced variations of that argument based on demographics and macro-level voting patterns, but nobody is telling you that Hillary starts with 50% of the total vote before we even start count men's votes.

My concern is less about party politics or domestic issues, it's about his ability to respond to a potential geopolitical threat. I may be wrong and he'd be a great president, I really don't know. It's just a risky potential pick by the GOP.

People worry too much about this. Sitting on the Senate Finance Committee for two terms or being governor of even a large state doesn't give you any real experience responding to geopolitical threats. You're either smart enough and composed enough to do it or you aren't. The experience piece is drastically overrated, IMO.

 

[irishog77]

I don't know of any person anywhere who follows this stuff to any degree advancing an argument that Hillary would win because of the "female vote." There are slightly more nuanced variations of that argument based on demographics and macro-level voting patterns, but nobody is telling you that Hillary starts with 50% of the total vote before we even start count men's votes.



People worry too much about this. Sitting on the Senate Finance Committee for two terms or being governor of even a large state doesn't give you any real experience responding to geopolitical threats. You're either smart enough and composed enough to do it or you aren't. The experience piece is drastically overrated, IMO.

That's where I am. Hell, I guess our last 3 president's (all 2 termers) weren't qualified. George H. Bush certainly was. Reagan, Carter? No. The list could go on.

 

[connor_in]

On the "Hillary would win in a landslide because of the female vote" argument, I'm not buying it. Anyone who would vote for Mrs. Clinton just because she's a woman is voting Democrat no matter what, just like anyone who voted for Obama just because he's black would have voted Democrat no matter what. Obama won because he was the "cool" candidate for white Gen Xers and Millennials. Hillary is more like Mitch McConnell (old and boring) than she is like candidate Obama (young and hip). Worse, she'll have to defend Obama's policies or find some way to pivot around them, because "eight years of Democratic policies" is what the Republican candidate will be campaigning against.

I think the one area it could help her would be the increase in turnout among D women. Obama did get the "cool" vote, but there was also a dramatic increase in (black, african-american, whatever) turnout. However, while HRC might increase D women turnout, it is not a given as she and her family have a history...something Obama did not have in 2008. HRC as D candidate could also increase voter turnout for R's. Part of that is what I think happened this past week. People keep talking about voter suppression. But i think many voters suppressed themselves. I think many D's (as many R's have done before too) were not up for this election especially with their particular choice and stayed home themselves, not tied up or pinned down by R's as various political pundits will have you believe. While R's made sure to put Obama's agenda on the ballot, Obama himself was not and many D candidates ran away from him in an obvious manner. Thus you weren't feeling like you were voting for him again if you were a D, but R's definitely felt like they were voting against him, trying to stop his agenda so they were energized while D's were not (especially in the Senate).

My 2 cents

 

[Black Irish]

I don't know of any person anywhere who follows this stuff to any degree advancing an argument that Hillary would win because of the "female vote." There are slightly more nuanced variations of that argument based on demographics and macro-level voting patterns, but nobody is telling you that Hillary starts with 50% of the total vote before we even start count men's votes.



People worry too much about this. Sitting on the Senate Finance Committee for two terms or being governor of even a large state doesn't give you any real experience responding to geopolitical threats. You're either smart enough and composed enough to do it or you aren't. The experience piece is drastically overrated, IMO.

I agree. If experience was the most important quality in a candidate, then Joe Biden would be a home run of a president. I think that plenty of people on both sides of the political spectrum feel that Biden would be, um, not that.

 

[ulukinatme]

I think Gov. Kasich is one of the Republican front runners already. He got a ton of publicity on election night and the talking heads talked about him quite a bit. And Ohio likes him and he can deliver the state.

That's an idea. What about pairing Kasich and Bush? Could help deliver two big states that have been on the fence in recent Presidential elections.

 

[wizards8507]

That's an idea. What about pairing Kasich and Bush? Could help deliver two big states that have been on the fence in recent Presidential elections.

Everyone hates Bush. The "deliver Florida" nominee would be Rubio.

 

[connor_in]

Everyone hates Bush. The "deliver Florida" nominee would be Rubio.

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh

 

[ickythump1225]

Can't claim to love any of the democratic candidates and I'm not endorsing any of them, but quite honestly I don't see how whoever is nominated doesn't win. That has nothing to do with the candidates and everything to do with electoral politics and demographics. Hell, if Obama could run again 2016 he would win regardless of the polls and approval ratings today (we are basically in the exact same situation as we were in 2010 only with a slightly better economy).

Republicans will continue to dominate midterm elections because of those same demographics and voting tendencies and successful gerrymandering, but I don't think the Republican Party as currently constituted will win another presidential election. If they concentrate on economics and foreign policy they eventually could turn a purple state red, but the right wing social issues are so toxic and voting habits and identity politics are so ingrained I just don't see how the math can work. I think we are stuck with democratic president and republican congress for the foreseeable future, which means years and years of horrible approval ratings for everyone and absolutely nothing of any real significance being accomplished in Washington.

This. The fact that Obama could even win re-election tells me everything I need to know about presidential elections for the foreseeable future. Republicans dominate mid-terms because their constituency comes out to vote reliably during every election cycle. However all of the young voters, minorities, etc. who vote Democratic stayed home this time but will turn out in the Presidential election. Republicans are just setting themselves up for disappointment believing that the tide has turned.

Speaking of Republican disappointment...though I don't think it would actually happen I would love to see Rand Paul elected so I can see Republicans spin in circles justifying Rand Paul becoming George W. Bush v.2.0. Rand is hailed as "pragmatic now but that is code word for "sell out." Watch him get elected and start another war and enlarge the government.

Rand Paul is no Ron Paul. Rand will end up being the more successful politician but that is what he is: a politician. Ron Paul at least had the courage of his convictions and went down fighting for what he he believed in, hell at least he really believed in something. I find most politicians to be spineless cowards and while Rand showed some promise at first has pretty much turned out to be another politician except with more libertarian-ish boilerplate in his speeches.

 

[dwshade]

I agree. If experience was the most important quality in a candidate, then Joe Biden would be a home run of a president. I think that plenty of people on both sides of the political spectrum feel that Biden would be, um, not that.

Experience in government is not important IMO. But certain skills are a must. Leadership skills, communication skills, decision making skills, ability to hire competent people and the ability to listen to advisers who tell you the truth even if it isn't what you want to hear. These are areas that are weaknesses for Obama and it has shown. Yes he has good communication skills when it comes to a campaign but not as a president. Count me in with Dr. Ben Carson. I'm so sick of politicians and Carson would be a refreshing change. And as Chief of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins he has all the skills I listed above. This is a guy who has to process information quickly and sometimes make life altering decisions. His background from rising from the ghettos of Detroit to Johns Hopkins is inspiring. A black, conservative president would be very intriguing.

As to Hillary Clinton, anyone who thinks she has an advantage simply because she's a woman is crazy. There are just as many women who dislike her as like her. She's also a lousy campaigner and certainly lacks the charm of her part-time husband Bill. She has no record of success as a senator or as Sec. of State. Add in Obama fatigue in 2016 and she'll be in the same position McCain was in after 8 years of Bush fatigue. People are going to want to go in a new direction in 2016 and that isn't Hillary.

 

[pumpdog20]

Rand Paul running away from controversy... is this really someone you want leading you? No thanks. Steve King at least stood his ground, even if I disagree with his stance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI8rCleTbSo

 

[Cackalacky]

As to Hillary Clinton, anyone who thinks she has an advantage simply because she's a woman is crazy. There are just as many women who dislike her as like her. She's also a lousy campaigner and certainly lacks the charm of her part-time husband Bill. She has no record of success as a senator or as Sec. of State. Add in Obama fatigue in 2016 and she'll be in the same position McCain was in after 8 years of Bush fatigue. People are going to want to go in a new direction in 2016 and that isn't Hillary.

Hillary is already trying to out left Elizabeth Warren. And she is not doing very well at it. She is pretty much the status quo for Beltway politics and I personally hope she does not make it out of the first few primaries. I will be real sad if she sgets the nod.