Oct 18 | Florida State

[aubeirish]

I haven't seen the clip, but I think that might just be a poor choice of words. What we are at LB and in the secondary is thin, and extremely so. Between injuries and suspensions, aren't we missing something obscene like eight guys back there?

I agree, but he didn't mean that. He was talking about where FSU should attack us. Depth never came up. He said that we couldn't run the football about 4 times, that made me laugh. Teams have been stacking the box a lot this season. Yet, we still run it pretty effectively considering. I'm not saying our run game is the best there is, but it's not complete garbage either.

 

[connor_in]

no hype video this week?

 

[irishfan]

We better defer if we win the toss. Last thing we need to do is go 3-and-out and get that crowd going even more wild.

I think its the CW era that really killed all my confidence with us in big games. Seems like every time we played a ranked team under Weis, we'd receive, return the kickoff to the 12, go 3 and out, shank the punt 30 yards.

 

[NDdomer2]

We better defer if we win the toss. Last thing we need to do is go 3-and-out and get that crowd going even more wild.

I think its the CW era that really killed all my confidence with us in big games. Seems like every time we played a ranked team under Weis, we'd receive, return the kickoff to the 12, go 3 and out, shank the punt 30 yards.

and if we give them the ball to start the game and they strike early its going to be even crazier when we get the ball.

Take the ball, hope worst case scenario is get early field position battle in our favor. and play the possession game.

 

[Wild Bill]

We better defer if we win the toss. Last thing we need to do is go 3-and-out and get that crowd going even more wild.

I think its the CW era that really killed all my confidence with us in big games. Seems like every time we played a ranked team under Weis, we'd receive, return the kickoff to the 12, go 3 and out, shank the punt 30 yards.

Agree. And it seems we're more of a 3rd quarter team than a 1st quarter team. I'd rather have first crack at it after halftime.

and if we give them the ball to start the game and they strike early its going to be even crazier when we get the ball.

Take the ball, hope worst case scenario is get early field position battle in our favor. and play the possession game.

The likelihood of going three and out is far greater than them driving the field to score.

 

[Irish2155]

We better defer if we win the toss. Last thing we need to do is go 3-and-out and get that crowd going even more wild.

I think its the CW era that really killed all my confidence with us in big games. Seems like every time we played a ranked team under Weis, we'd receive, return the kickoff to the 12, go 3 and out, shank the punt 30 yards.

His schematic advantage.

CW was the one who killed my confidence against Navy, along with many other garbage football programs.

I agree, starting on defense would be wise.

 

[wizards8507]

Take the ball, hope worst case scenario is get early field position battle in our favor. and play the possession game.

What Notre Dame team have you been watching were "worst case scenario" for an opening drive is an edge in the field position battle? The worst case scenario is more like two false starts, three burned timeouts, a concussion for Tarean Folston, the first ever offensive targeting penalty on Nick Martin, and a fumble on our own 6.

 

[PANDFAN]

no hype video this week?

around 6pm et..per tp

 

[Irish2155]

What Notre Dame team have you been watching were "worst case scenario" for an opening drive is an edge in the field position battle? The worst case scenario is more like two false starts, three burned timeouts, a concussion for Tarean Folston, the first ever offensive targeting penalty on Nick Martin, and a fumble on our own 6.

This man has a great memory. I think we should defer, take the ball at half and build on the lead..."best case scenario"

 

[NDdomer2]

What Notre Dame team have you been watching were "worst case scenario" for an opening drive is an edge in the field position battle? The worst case scenario is more like two false starts, three burned timeouts, a concussion for Tarean Folston, the first ever offensive targeting penalty on Nick Martin, and a fumble on our own 6.

I said Hope worst case scenario.... I'm aware there is other worse case scenarios. But imo you take the ball thinking whoever gets more possessions wins, so why not start with first.

 

[wizards8507]

I said Hope worst case scenario.... I'm aware there is other worse case scenarios. But imo you take the ball thinking whoever gets more possessions wins

I agree with that as a general rule, however...

so why not start with first.

...we usually start poorly.

 

[ACamp1900]

ND will take an early lead and keep it... why?


....



because the last two decades have aged me beyond my years and i just can't take 1-17 against top five teams (Or whatever that f'd up stat was)

 

[Irish2155]

I agree with that as a general rule, however...


...we usually start poorly.

Plus our first true road game against the defending champs and Heisman winner. We'll need to settle into this game a bit, better to do that on defense.

 

[DillonHall]

We better defer if we win the toss. Last thing we need to do is go 3-and-out and get that crowd going even more wild.

I think its the CW era that really killed all my confidence with us in big games. Seems like every time we played a ranked team under Weis, we'd receive, return the kickoff to the 12, go 3 and out, shank the punt 30 yards.

The coaches and players are used to starting the game with the ball. Why the hell would you change that in the biggest game of the season?

 

[NDTH91]

I said Hope worst case scenario.... I'm aware there is other worse case scenarios. But imo you take the ball thinking whoever gets more possessions wins, so why not start with first.

Confused about this. Pretty sure there is an equal chance of either team having one extra possession regardless of who gets it first since the other team will get it first in the second half..

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The SBNation article by Ian Boyd (posted on the previous page) argues that FSU is weak up the middle. He expects us to come out with a steady diet of Inside Zone/ Power O from Folston to set up Play Action against their inexperienced Safeties. Should see plenty of tunnel screens to slow down their pass rush, too.

I think Farley has a surprising game. Im not 'all in' on him at all, but I'm very happy with his overall play. This is the game I've been saying he's going to get exposed, but I think he comes in and balls out, so I changed my mind.

Most analysts, even FSU guys, think they'll struggle to run against us. So Fisher is more likely to spread us out and test our thin secondary. In that case, I'd expect to see the same defensive backfield we used against UNC-- Riggs in the slot and Butler at CB.

 

[wizards8507]

ND will take an early lead and keep it.

Agreed.

And then we lose to Navy.

 

[Irish2155]

Confused about this. Pretty sure there is an equal chance of either team having one extra possession regardless of who gets it first since the other team will get it first in the second half..

If a team gets if first and last in the first half that gives them an extra possession.

 

[NDTH91]

If a team gets if first and last in the first half that gives them an extra possession.

Yes... In the first half. But then the team who gets it first in the second half also has the chance for an extra possession.

 

[DillonHall]

Yes... In the first half. But then the team who gets it first in the second half also has the chance for an extra possession.

Let it go, it's a ridiculous argument they're making. There's no schematic advantage one way or the other.

 

[wizards8507]

Let it go, it's a ridiculous argument they're making. There's no schematic advantage one way or the other.

The stats say you're wrong. It's the same reason you want to go last in college football's overtime. It's better to have a shot at the "extra possession" when the game has started playing itself out and you know "what you need."

Deferring the Coin Flip: Maybe It Is Not a Toss Up Decision | The Big Lead

In the NFL in 2010:

Combined, teams starting with the ball at the beginning of the game have won 46.2% of games.

Advanced NFL Stats Community: Kickoff or Receive?

 

[Irish2155]

Yes... In the first half. But then the team who gets it first in the second half also has the chance for an extra possession.

The total game, if a team is up two possessions (getting the ball first and having it last) in the first half the other team can't make that up with receiving the kick in the second half.

 

[PANDFAN]

Yes... In the first half. But then the team who gets it first in the second half also has the chance for an extra possession.

unless your texas So UCLA wins the toss and elects to defer. And then Texas chooses to kickoff. So UCLA will get it twice.

 

[wizards8507]

The total game, if a team is up two possessions (getting the ball first and having it last) in the first half the other team can't make that up with receiving the kick in the second half.

Getting it first and last would put you up ONE possession, not two:

A
B
A
B
A

3 As
2 Bs

 

[NDdomer2]

I agree with that as a general rule, however...


...we usually start poorly.

only the rice and unc games did we start our first posessions with 3 and outs. Rice 3 plays 1 yard punt. unc 3 plays 12 yards, fumble.

Here is how our oppenents have started their first drive against us:
3 plays - punt
11 plays - punt
3 plays - punt
4 plays - punt
3 plays punt
3 plays fumble

Florida states first drives O first and then D

OK st..........10 plays fg - 3 plays punt
citadell.......6 plays td - 6 plays to downs
clemson.....3 plays punt - 3 plays punt
NC st..........7 plays td - 2 plays td
wake .........6 plays int - 8 plays punt
cuse...........8 plays td - 11 plays int

FSU has scored on 2/3 of their opening drive and scored a TD on half. They have only forced two three and outs defensively to start games.

While our opponents have not started the game well against us, FSU seems to start game pretty well with only 1 punt.

I think us taking the ball first is the right thing to do.

 

[woolybug25]

Let it go, it's a ridiculous argument they're making. There's no schematic advantage one way or the other.

Then you must be smarter than a ton of coaches that disagree with that sentiment. Certain gameplans (spread v manball) dictate the importance of the first possession. There are absolutely a ton of strategy revolved around how you gameplan that changes depending on if you win the coin flip.

Again... if there is really no advantage ever to winning the coin flip, then you must be smarter than a bunch of coaches that include Brian Kelly, Bill Beliceck and Mike McCarthy. All of which opined on specific strategy based off of the coin toss.

 

[Irish2155]

Getting it first and last would put you up ONE possession, not two:

A
B
A
B
A

3 As
2 Bs

You are correct, having the ball first and last in the first half puts a team up two possesions. Then the other team gets the ball to start the third...ultimately a net gain of one possesion.

BTW, I still think we should defer...

 

[NDTH91]

The total game, if a team is up two possessions (getting the ball first and having it last) in the first half the other team can't make that up with receiving the kick in the second half.

Yes, but if the team who kicks off first ends up with the last possession in the first half also has the last possession in the second half (in which they received), then THAT team got an extra possession.

It can go either way. There are 4 possible outcomes for having the ball first/last possession of each half. Two result in equal # of possessions, one results in team 1 with an extra possession and the other results in team 2 having an extra possession.

Someone with a computer back me up here. Doing this from my phone is tough.

 

[DillonHall]

The stats say you're wrong. It's the same reason you want to go last in college football's overtime. It's better to have a shot at the "extra possession" when the game has started playing itself out and you know "what you need."

Deferring the Coin Flip: Maybe It Is Not a Toss Up Decision | The Big Lead

In the NFL in 2010:

Combined, teams starting with the ball at the beginning of the game have won 46.2% of games.

Advanced NFL Stats Community: Kickoff or Receive?

Well, I can't argue with stats.

 

[ACamp1900]

On the road as an underdog... always defer... last thing you want is to put a home team on the ropes on the road only to give them an 'out' by letting them start the second half with the ball...

my two cents.