The Road to the Playoff

[MPClinton22]

If Miss St beats A&M, they will probably jump the Irish in the rankings. They will have beaten LSU and A&M, and unfortunately with how overrated those two are, will get the benefit of the SEC bias.

I'm probably being overly cynical here, but I just don't see a world where pollsters don't overvalue a win against an over-hyped A&M team and launch Miss St. well into the top 10.

 

[T Town Tommy]

If Miss St beats A&M, they will probably jump the Irish in the rankings. They will have beaten LSU and A&M, and unfortunately with how overrated those two are, will get the benefit of the SEC bias.

I'm probably being overly cynical here, but I just don't see a world where pollsters don't overvalue a win against an over-hyped A&M team and launch Miss St. well into the top 10.

I dunno. If State wins, I think they would have as good an argument to be in the top 10 as anyone at this point in the season.

 

[Cali_domer]

I dunno. If State wins, I think they would have as good an argument to be in the top 10 as anyone at this point in the season.

They would...

I just want to beat Stanford. lol

 

[MPClinton22]

I dunno. If State wins, I think they would have as good an argument to be in the top 10 as anyone at this point in the season.

Yeah I wouldn't really have a problem with them being in the top 10, just disagreeing that them winning would move the Irish up in the rankings. Although I very highly doubt the Bulldogs make it through their schedule undefeated, so in the long run that would be helpful I suppose. Frankly the only team in the SEC West I can see making it through their schedule unscathed is Bama, and even that is asking a lot.

I'm very interested to see how TCU plays against Oklahoma. The Frogs haven't really played anyone of note yet this year, with their best win coming over Minnesota. But they've dominated every team they've played, so I'm curious if they can keep up with the Sooners.

 

[Rhode Irish]

If Miss St beats A&M, they will probably jump the Irish in the rankings. They will have beaten LSU and A&M, and unfortunately with how overrated those two are, will get the benefit of the SEC bias.

I'm probably being overly cynical here, but I just don't see a world where pollsters don't overvalue a win against an over-hyped A&M team and launch Miss St. well into the top 10.

You might be right, but even if it happens, Mississippi State's stay in the top-10 will either be short-lived or they will have really earned it by the end. It will all come out in the wash, IMO. The real sin is not having an SECw team ranked too high, because they have to run a gauntlet and the pretenders will be weeded out. The real sin would be a team like Ohio State playing nobody and getting to just hang out near the top and eventually going to the playoff. If they had just beat an extremely mediocre VaTech team they would have only had to play MSU in the B1G championship for a chance to be in the Playoff. That is absurd, because they are probably realistically the 20th or so best team in the country.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Yeah I wouldn't really have a problem with them being in the top 10, just disagreeing that them winning would move the Irish up in the rankings. Although I very highly doubt the Bulldogs make it through their schedule undefeated, so in the long run that would be helpful I suppose. Frankly the only team in the SEC West I can see making it through their schedule unscathed is Bama, and even that is asking a lot.

I'm very interested to see how TCU plays against Oklahoma. The Frogs haven't really played anyone of note yet this year, with their best win coming over Minnesota. But they've dominated every team they've played, so I'm curious if they can keep up with the Sooners.

Some great games on tap for sure. Good luck against Stanford... I think you guys get 'em.

 

[BobbyMac]

What if ND, Oregon and OU or Baylor go undefeated, FSU has one loss and a 2 loss Georgia beats a formerly undefeated and #1 SEC-W team in the SEC Championship game. Who gets the #4 seed?

FSU, the SEC team or wait for it - - - - BYU? (I think I'm kidding about BYU)

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[T Town Tommy]

What if ND, Oregon and OU or Baylor go undefeated, FSU has one loss and a 2 loss Georgia beats a formerly undefeated and #1 SEC-W team in the SEC Championship game. Who gets the #4 seed?

FSU, the SEC team or wait for it - - - - BYU? (I think I'm kidding about BYU)

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FSU obviously wins the ACC conference title game, and they would get the # 4 IMO. Their lone loss would have come at the hands of an undefeated Irish team.

 

[BobbyMac]

FSU obviously wins the ACC conference title game, and they would get the # 4 IMO. Their lone loss would have come at the hands of an undefeated Irish team.

I'm glad YOU answered this. lol

 

[T Town Tommy]

I'm glad YOU answered this. lol

Ha... sometimes I can be objective.

 

[ickythump1225]

FSU obviously wins the ACC conference title game, and they would get the # 4 IMO. Their lone loss would have come at the hands of an undefeated Irish team.

This. FSU is still the defending national champions and that will earn a lot of sway with the voters.

 

[ACamp1900]

Ha... sometimes I can be objective.

Bama doesn't have anywhere near 15 national titles and the SEC is vastly overrated...






















this is only a test.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Bama doesn't have anywhere near 15 national titles and the SEC is vastly overrated...






















this is only a test.

Alabama has nine national titles and the SEC always gets vastly overrated in the polls. Nothing like having the #2,4,5,7,9,and 10th ranked team on your schedule every year- even though they shouldn't be ranked any better than top 30 at best. Throw in the #4,5, and sometimes 8th ranked FCS teams and there is no doubt the SEC rules. I personally think we could do better getting rid of the 8th ranked FCS team in favor of instate opponent Jax State or Faulkner. UAB would be too tough.

How did I do?

edit: Forgot this... ACamp not getting IE Member of the Year in 2013 was some straight up IE East Coast bias.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Down goes Oregon. I only had Oregon with a degree of difficulty of 5, with games @UCLA and against Stanford. Does not seem they have the caliber of schedule to overcome a loss at home against an unranked team.

This is kind of like the Hunger Games haha. The first of the contenders to eliminate itself is Oregon.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Down goes Oregon. I only had Oregon with a degree of difficulty of 5, with games @UCLA and against Stanford. Does not seem they have the caliber of schedule to overcome a loss at home against an unranked team.

This is kind of like the Hunger Games haha. The first if the contenders to eliminate itself is Oregon.

If the Ducks run the table... which I think is unlikely however.... they would probably get in. Their main competition for the spot if they do run the table would probably be Mich State and they at least beat them.

 

[woolybug25]

Down goes Oregon. I only had Oregon with a degree of difficulty of 5, with games @UCLA and against Stanford. Does not seem they have the caliber of schedule to overcome a loss at home against an unranked team.

This is kind of like the Hunger Games haha. The first if the contenders to eliminate itself is Oregon.

 

[Rhode Irish]

If the Ducks run the table... which I think is unlikely however.... they would probably get in. Their main competition for the spot if they do run the table would probably be Mich State and they at least beat them.

I guess it depends on where everyone else is. It is true that a lot of the teams ahead of them now will cannibalize each other. But as unpopular as it probably is here, I'd take a second SEC team before I took a one-loss Pac12 champion. It is probably moot, however, since Oregon has rarely passed the eye test and, as you said, is unlikely to go unbeaten the rest of the way. I also may be guilty of just never having believed in Oregon so there is probably some confirmation bias here.

 

[IrishLion]

I'll be shocked if Oregon doesn't lose again. I watched the Oregon-WSU game last week, in which WSU was robbed of a chance to win the game, and Oregon's o-line was an embarrassment to offensive lines everywhere.

At some point Mariota is going to get knocked out/too beat up to play, or else the offensive line is going to blow another game or two against any of the decent defenses Oregon faces.

God help Mariota when that line is dealing with Stanford's front 7.

 

[RDU Irish]

As usual, there will be few if any unbeaten at the end of the year.

13 teams in the Top 25 are unbeaten right now, Make it 14 if you count Arizona moving into the rankings. By conference:

SEC - 5 (Bama, Auburn, TAMU, Ole Miss, Miss State)
Big 12 - 3 (OK, Baylor, TCU)
Pac 12 - 2 (UCLA, Arizona)
Independent - 2 (ND, BYU)
ACC - 1 (FSU)
B1G - 1 (Nebraska)

Only one unbeaten can come out of each conference plus NDvsFSU so we are left with only possible unbeaten of:

SEC
B1G
Big 12
Pac12
ND/FSU
BYU


UCLA/Arizona I think are least likely to produce an unbeaten. With Stanford and USC on both schedules plus Oregon yet on UCLA's schedule I don't think either team is anywhere close to good enough to beat all the above and probably Oregon a second time in a championship.

Close second, Nebraska surviving the B1G unbeaten. Probably will fall this weekend AT Mich State but also have to go to Wisconsin and win on top of a B1G championship game. Overall schedule is not that imposing but winning AT their two toughest opponents I don't think is happening.

Next is the SEC, I have a hard time seeing any of those teams run the gauntlet. TAMU, ole Miss and Miss St are all overrated so might make it look tougher than it is for Bama and Auburn but they also have LSU and the East champ to contend with. I won't be at all surprised if we have a two loss SEC champ enter the playoffs. Pretty low chance of unbeaten IMO.

Big 12 really comes down to Oklahoma and Baylor. TCU gets their shot at home against OK this weekend. Then Baylor and OK play in November. Easy to see the winner going undefeated, especially since they don't have a conference championship.

FSU/ND - If we don't beat them who will? Probably nobody. If we do win (and come into the game undefeated) we look pretty good coming off our toughest three game stretch. We have to beat Stanford first though.

BYU might have the easiest path to zero losses. If there are no other unbeaten teams that makes it really hard to exclude them. It also makes it harder to let a one loss ND into the mix and pinch two conference champs.

At the end of the day. Pretty good odds that nobody is undefeated, which completely changes the dynamic of this conversation.

 

[Rhode Irish]

As usual, there will be few if any unbeaten at the end of the year.

13 teams in the Top 25 are unbeaten right now, Make it 14 if you count Arizona moving into the rankings. By conference:

SEC - 5 (Bama, Auburn, TAMU, Ole Miss, Miss State)
Big 12 - 3 (OK, Baylor, TCU)
Pac 12 - 2 (UCLA, Arizona)
Independent - 2 (ND, BYU)
ACC - 1 (FSU)
B1G - 1 (Nebraska)

Only one unbeaten can come out of each conference plus NDvsFSU so we are left with only possible unbeaten of:

SEC
B1G
Big 12
Pac12
ND/FSU
BYU


UCLA/Arizona I think are least likely to produce an unbeaten. With Stanford and USC on both schedules plus Oregon yet on UCLA's schedule I don't think either team is anywhere close to good enough to beat all the above and probably Oregon a second time in a championship.

Close second, Nebraska surviving the B1G unbeaten. Probably will fall this weekend AT Mich State but also have to go to Wisconsin and win on top of a B1G championship game. Overall schedule is not that imposing but winning AT their two toughest opponents I don't think is happening.

Next is the SEC, I have a hard time seeing any of those teams run the gauntlet. TAMU, ole Miss and Miss St are all overrated so might make it look tougher than it is for Bama and Auburn but they also have LSU and the East champ to contend with. I won't be at all surprised if we have a two loss SEC champ enter the playoffs. Pretty low chance of unbeaten IMO.

Big 12 really comes down to Oklahoma and Baylor. TCU gets their shot at home against OK this weekend. Then Baylor and OK play in November. Easy to see the winner going undefeated, especially since they don't have a conference championship.

FSU/ND - If we don't beat them who will? Probably nobody. If we do win (and come into the game undefeated) we look pretty good coming off our toughest three game stretch. We have to beat Stanford first though.

BYU might have the easiest path to zero losses. If there are no other unbeaten teams that makes it really hard to exclude them. It also makes it harder to let a one loss ND into the mix and pinch two conference champs.

At the end of the day. Pretty good odds that nobody is undefeated, which completely changes the dynamic of this conversation.

This is a good way to look at it. I think - with the exception of BYU - if you do finish unbeaten, that punches your ticket (as it should be). Among one loss teams (assuming there are more of them than there are spots) it is going to come down to SOS. Who is playing the toughest schedule this year? Outside of the SEC, I think it is still a little difficult to distinguish between them at this point.

 

[wizards8507]

Only one unbeaten can come out of each conference plus NDvsFSU so we are left with only possible unbeaten of:

SEC
B1G
Big 12
Pac12
ND/FSU
BYU

You're missing one. If Georgia Tech goes undefeated and wins the ACC, you can have ND plus the ACC champion.

SEC
B1G
Big 12
Pac 12
ND
BYU
ACC (Ga. Tech)

 

[RDU Irish]

My scenario for a completely FUBAR playoff picture:

BYU only undefeated
FSU only loss to ND who only loses to Stanford
USC wins Pac12 with two losses overall
two loss SEC East team gives the West opponent in championship their second loss, negating argument for one loss West runner up
OK and Baylor are both 1 loss teams
Nebraska only loss is in title game to a two loss OSU

At that point, ND and BYU look

 

[RDU Irish]

You're missing one. If Georgia Tech goes undefeated and wins the ACC, you can have ND plus the ACC champion.

SEC
B1G
Big 12
Pac 12
ND
BYU
ACC (Ga. Tech)

Fair enough, but I would then place them #1 in lowest probability of running the table given they won 42-38 over Georgia Southern. They lose in two weeks to Duke and NCST, Clemson and Georgia to finish the season will add some losses to that total for sure.

 

[BobbyMac]

Things have really worked themselves out for the Irish's path to the playoffs.

Their schedule is full of the 3 biggest dumpster fires in the nation. UM, UNC and SC, they get to go on the road to play the #1 team in the country who isn't playing like it up till now and the other teams in the hunt all have to play each other: Auburn, MSU Ole Miss and Baylor has to play TCU and @ OU.

It's getting to the point where ND could make the playoffs with a good loss in Tallahassee.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

With 10 undefeated teams left with the highest number of unbeatens possible being 6 (ND v FSU, TCU v Baylor, Miss St v Auburn, winner of Miss St v Auburn v Ole Miss) and one being Marshall, there is essentially no chance an undefeated who played a D1A level schedule can be left out.

I'm hoping for chaos where a pretty unimpressive team that snuck through with 1 loss can get in.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

IMO, 2 SEC teams will get in regardless of whether or not they are deserving unless all of the potential 2nd teams have 2 losses and even with that they might get a 2nd team in.

Best case scenario is Auburn winning out (13-0) which would give Bama 2 losses, and hope that both Mississippi teams lose one other game each (which is all very possible).

That would put the Auburn as the #1 playoff team most likely.

 

[BobbyMac]

IMO, 2 SEC teams will get in regardless of whether or not they are deserving unless all of the potential 2nd teams have 2 losses and even with that they might get a 2nd team in.

Best case scenario is Auburn winning out (13-0) which would give Bama 2 losses, and hope that both Mississippi teams lose one other game each (which is all very possible).

That would put the Auburn as the #1 playoff team most likely.

The best case scenario is to have a 2 loss Georgia / USC / Mizzou team beat a 1 loss SEC-W team in the SEC championship. The thought of that has Viagra like effects upon this hater.

.

 

[ulukinatme]

I might be okay with 2 SEC teams in the playoff if they were both one loss teams, if those losses were close and neither team faced the other. I laugh when I see ESPN predicting 3 SEC teams in the playoff, just ridiculous. At that point you might as well call it the SEC Road to the Playoffs. Playoffs are meant to take out the "what ifs" that the voters have tried to eliminate via polls and speculation. It's all about deciding on the field at that point. If two playoff teams have already played each other in the regular season and that happens to be one of their losses, I'm not sure they deserve to get another crack at them. I'd rather see a matchup that hasn't occurred yet, something fresh. I would definitely put a 2 loss conference champion from a different conference in before a 1 loss team that already has a representative from their conference in the playoff. The only way I'd back down from that is if the 2 loss team had a very weak schedule in comparison to the 1 loss team.

 

[koonja]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I think I figured out how ESPN handles Notre Dame on their segments... <a href="http://t.co/YCQPjCIWrh">pic.twitter.com/YCQPjCIWrh</a></p>— Knute Rockne (@Rocknes_Ghost) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rocknes_Ghost/status/519242185016107009">October 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[ickythump1225]

The best case scenario is to have a 2 loss Georgia / USC / Mizzou team beat a 1 loss SEC-W team in the SEC championship. The thought of that has Viagra like effects upon this hater.

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I am a certified UGA hater, can't stand that program or that fanbase. But if they have 2 or 3 losses and made it to SECCG I would cheer my brains out for UGA.