A Song of Ice and Fire (Spoilers! Only enter if you have read all books)

[Whiskeyjack]

We are shown numerous times in GoT how much love has been built between the two and Cat makes it clear numerous times in Clash and SoS how she basically died with Ned and how caring he was... all of this after their rather poor beginning and yet nothing can be inferred from that other than 'we know very little about the marriage'?? Then your last two paragraph's speak to my point as much as anyone else's... if he is so reluctant and knows she is jealous could that not support Jon simply being a bastard as much as anything else???

Yes, Catelyn harps on how close she and Ned had grown to be in several of her POV chapters. You feel that makes Ned's presumed failure to disclose Jon's parentage to Catelyn, especially in light of the distress it caused her, difficult to swallow. That's a coherent argument, though one I disagree with. If the conventional wisdom about Ned's promise to Lyanna is correct, his choice to keep her in the dark makes perfect sense. But it's pretty clear we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

But to the extent you think the above is a stretch by those hoping to justify the R + L = J theory, there's a ton of evidence for it. Of those fan theories for which there isn't definite proof yet (like the recently substantiated Baby Aegon Survived theory), it has the most support.

 

[ACamp1900]

Yes, Catelyn harps on how close she and Ned had grown to be in several of her POV chapters. You feel that makes Ned's presumed failure to disclose Jon's parentage to Catelyn, especially in light of the distress it caused her, difficult to swallow. That's a coherent argument, though one I disagree with. If the conventional wisdom about Ned's promise to Lyanna is correct, his choice to keep her in the dark makes perfect sense. But it's pretty clear we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

But to the extent you think the above is a stretch by those hoping to justify the R + L = J theory, there's a ton of evidence for it. Of those fan theories for which there isn't definite proof yet (like the recently substantiated Baby Aegon Survived theory), it has the most support.

Thing is I agree with most all of this… and have, both prior to, and including, yesterday… My purpose was not to argue the theory as a whole, just mention a nagging thought that occurred to me when I considered it in full… Since finishing the books I have spent some time on the very boards and sites you continue to reference and I still have trouble with Ned saying nothing over 15 years when it would be easy to say one day something to the effect of, “I am faithful and always have been. You must know that. I do not consort with whores behind your back. I swore to raise a child as my own and protect him, that child is Jon Snow. Please help me do this and stop bearing him ill. You must also never repeat what I have just spoken and you must promise to never ask me anything pertaining to this issue again, or to never bring it up with anyone else. I only tell you what I have now to lift this black cloud that has hung over an otherwise happy marriage.” Done.

I honestly don’t think anything in the books infers, or suggests that the above could not or should not have taken place… This does not derail the theory, it’s just a problem I have with it… beyond that Lax disagreed with me and it was fine, I took your tone and wording as overly insulting, not simply disagreeing.

New day, generally speaking I have always felt you and I get along reasonably well here and that there has often been at some degree of mutual respect… I’ll leave it at that.

 

[Emcee77]

Thing is I agree with most all of this… and have, both prior to, and including, yesterday… My purpose was not to argue the theory as a whole, just mention a nagging thought that occurred to me when I considered it in full… Since finishing the books I have spent some time on the very boards and sites you continue to reference and I still have trouble with Ned saying nothing over 15 years when it would be easy to say one day something to the effect of, “I am faithful and always have been. You must know that. I do not consort with whores behind your back. I swore to raise a child as my own and protect him, that child is Jon Snow. Please help me do this and stop bearing him ill. You must also never repeat what I have just spoken and you must promise to never ask me anything pertaining to this issue again, or to never bring it up with anyone else. I only tell you what I have now to lift this black cloud that has hung over an otherwise happy marriage.” Done.

I honestly don’t think anything in the books infers, or suggests that the above could not or should not have taken place… This does not derail the theory, it’s just a problem I have with it… beyond that Lax disagreed with me and it was fine, I took your tone and wording as overly insulting, not simply disagreeing.

New day, generally speaking I have always felt you and I get along reasonably well here and that there has often been at some degree of mutual respect… I’ll leave it at that.

This debate is interesting. I feel like I have a version of it all the time with a couple of my friends. ACamp, honest question: why does it matter that Ned didn't behave as you would have done or as most reasonable husbands would have done? I mean, I agree that it's crazy that Ned would allow a black cloud to hang over his marriage and allow Jon to grow up with Cat hating him unnecessarily. But literature and drama are JAM-PACKED with heroes with tragic flaws, from the plays of Sophocles to Hamlet to Scarface. I mean, Hamlet's probably the greatest work of literature in any language, and it consists entirely of a character doing borderline inexplicable things because he can't make up his mind (that's his tragic flaw), to the point that T.S. Eliot said it was a sucky play because no one would act like Hamlet and you therefore can't relate to him. To me it's very much the same thing with Ned Stark ... he is honorable TO A FAULT -- it's the fault that killed him -- so even though it is objectively absurd for him to refuse to tell Cat that Jon is not his son just to keep a promise to his dying sister, that's what he did. The very thought is maddening, but that's drama for you.

 

[ACamp1900]

It really doesn't matter... as it's just a book with 90 different story lines going on at once... I guess it comes down to if we are to believe it's a story as tightly woven as is often implied I still think you have to say something... The best explaination is Ned is just a dumbshit... which also has evidence to support it... doesn't mean I have to like it, or that it has to sit well.

 

[Emcee77]

It really doesn't matter... as it's just a book with 90 different story lines going on at once... I guess it comes down to if we are to believe it's a story as tightly woven as is often implied I still think you have to say something... The best explaination is Ned is just a dumbshit... which also has evidence to support it... doesn't mean I have to like it, or that it has to sit well.

Oh there's no way it's as tightly woven as is often implied. I fully believe that Martin has no idea where he is going with some of his plotlines. As for Ned being a dumbshit, don't really disagree there either, but to me that doesn't make the theory less likely to be true. Ned was killed off because he is such a dumbshit who clings blindly to honor.

 

[mgriff]

But to the extent you think the above is a stretch by those hoping to justify the R + L = J theory, there's a ton of evidence for it. Of those fan theories for which there isn't definite proof yet (like the recently substantiated Baby Aegon Survived theory), it has the most support.

Baby Aegon did not survive. Young Griff, or baby Aegon as some have decided, is in fact a Blackfyre. The male Blackfyre line died out, but the female line still existed. Varys and his sister were sold. Varys is one day suddenly taken for a ritual with his man parts. What's so special about Varys? He's got Kings Blood, something required for magic and reinforced through numerous Melisandre references. This also means his sister has royal blood as well.

Now Varys the street rat meets this guy Illyrio. Illyrio and Varys form a great partnership, they rescue Vary's sister, Illyrio falls in love, and they have a son. That son's clothes are in fact what Tyrion wears when he goes to Pentos. Illyrio then makes an awfully long, and uncommon trek, to see this boy off. Along the way Tyrion remarks that the fat cheesemonger never did anything but for gold. Illyrio responds with a cryptic answer about debts of the soul or heart. Either way, young Aegon is a black dragon, not a red. But it doesn't matter because there is a saying in the books, "Black or Red a dragon is still a dragon."

Varys and Illyrio are playing the game, and trying put Varys' nephew on the throne. They've got the support of the Golden Company, founded by Blackfyres. Explains why Varys just crippled the Lannisters and successfully holds the heir to Casterly Rock; Tyrion Lannister.

I think Jaime is the valonquar who will kill Cersei. She's older by a few moments remember...

 

[ACamp1900]

If a Stark doesn't kill a Lannister at some freakin point in this series I will be gravely dissapointed...

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If a Stark doesn't kill a Lannister at some freakin point in this series I will be gravely dissapointed...

There might not be any left by the time the Starks are in position to start taking revenge.

Varys and Illyrio are playing the game, and trying put Varys' nephew on the throne. They've got the support of the Golden Company, founded by Blackfyres. Explains why Varys just crippled the Lannisters and successfully holds the heir to Casterly Rock; Tyrion Lannister.

Interesting stuff. First coherent argument I've read for the motives of Varys and Illyrio. Any hint as to Varys' spot in the family tree? Who's his sister? Where is she?

I think Jaime is the valonquar who will kill Cersei. She's older by a few moments remember...

That's my intuition as well. Cersei's paranoia over Tyrion pretty much rules him out, which leaves Jaime-- a much more poetic and less obvious choice. Unless, of course, you consider Maester Aemon's comment about Valyrian nouns being gender neutral. If valonquar in fact means "little sister", it opens up a whole host of possibilities (Margaery, Sansa, Arya, etc.)

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Baby Aegon did not survive. Young Griff, or baby Aegon as some have decided, is in fact a Blackfyre. The male Blackfyre line died out, but the female line still existed. Varys and his sister were sold. Varys is one day suddenly taken for a ritual with his man parts. What's so special about Varys? He's got Kings Blood, something required for magic and reinforced through numerous Melisandre references. This also means his sister has royal blood as well.

Now Varys the street rat meets this guy Illyrio. Illyrio and Varys form a great partnership, they rescue Vary's sister, Illyrio falls in love, and they have a son. That son's clothes are in fact what Tyrion wears when he goes to Pentos. Illyrio then makes an awfully long, and uncommon trek, to see this boy off. Along the way Tyrion remarks that the fat cheesemonger never did anything but for gold. Illyrio responds with a cryptic answer about debts of the soul or heart. Either way, young Aegon is a black dragon, not a red. But it doesn't matter because there is a saying in the books, "Black or Red a dragon is still a dragon."

Varys and Illyrio are playing the game, and trying put Varys' nephew on the throne. They've got the support of the Golden Company, founded by Blackfyres. Explains why Varys just crippled the Lannisters and successfully holds the heir to Casterly Rock; Tyrion Lannister.

I think Jaime is the valonquar who will kill Cersei. She's older by a few moments remember...

I'm intrigued but why the deception? Weren't the Blackfyres legitimized? If Dany can't inherit due to her sex then who would be next in the Targaryen line? Varys? If he can't inherit due to being a eunuch then wouldn't it fall to Griff anyway?

 

[mgriff]

Yes they were legitimized, which led to the Blackfyre Rebellion, which they lost. Some supporters went to Essos and formed the Golden Company. The actual Blackfyres were killed or sold into slavery, hence Varys and his sister. Dorne follows female lines of succession, and since Elia was Rhaegar's wife, there shouldn't be a problem. Thanks Nymeria.

Varys is a Blackfyre but they are passing Illyrio's son off as Rhaegar and Elia's child Aegon, so it doesn't matter. Rhaegar's son comes before his sister, and certainly before some defunct Blackfyre branch of the Targaryen dynasty. They have a Blackfyre but they aren't advertising it. It gets their man on the throne and the power that comes with it. Red or black, a dragon is still a dragon.

 

[mgriff]

Interesting stuff. First coherent argument I've read for the motives of Varys and Illyrio. Any hint as to Varys' spot in the family tree? Who's his sister? Where is she?

Serra is Varys' sister and she's dead. Illyrio married a wealthy woman and she died very shortly after they were wed. It legitimized Illyrio in many ways, and he promptly wed a Lysene pillowhouse worker named Serra.

Illyrio Mopatis - A Wiki of Ice and Fire

Source material for this theory.

Aegon, Varys, and Serra-- the Backfyre Triangle - General (ASoIaF) - A Forum of Ice and Fire

 

[mgriff]

Also if you guys aren't reading a book and you get off on trying to figure out all the **** hidden within a A Song of Ice and Fire, I would recommend going to read through all of the Heresy threads. on westeros.org.

 

[IrishinTN]

I've read through this stuff...several times...and now I'm really confused. Which freaking kid got scorched by the dragon?

 

[mgriff]

I've read through this stuff...several times...and now I'm really confused. Which freaking kid got scorched by the dragon?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I've read through this stuff...several times...and now I'm really confused. Which freaking kid got scorched by the dragon?

Quentyn Martell.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

There might not be any left by the time the Starks are in position to start taking revenge.

If Arya doesn't turn into a killing machine out for vengeance then I am going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If Arya doesn't turn into a killing machine out for vengeance then I am going to be sorely disappointed.

Her story arc doesn't have many plausible endings other than "killing machine returns to Westeros for vengeance".

 

[ND NYC]

i think the hbo series will tell us more (provide more foreshadowing) abut how this all turns out while we wait on books 6 and 7.

that "sorcerer in a wooden box" in the hbo series (not in books) could mean that our IE member mgriff theory etc on blackfyre-aegon-varys-illyrio has some legs. (settng up for lots of Varys stuff in hbo series)

 

[ACamp1900]

Her story arc doesn't have many plausible endings other than "killing machine returns to Westeros for vengeance".

Arya kills anyone and everyone playing a hand in her family's downfall... Except Cersei, and maybe Theon... then Jon meets up with her again and rustles her hair and she instantly regains her innocence...

Bran mind controls Cersei forcing her to spill all the beans from past deceptions on the steps of The Great Sept of Baelor, they he makes her choke herself out and she shits herself just before dying... Everyone rushes the steps because apparently Lannisters **** gold… Bran then turns into a tree...

Davos takes over as Lord of Storm's End after Stannis' final downfall and lives happily after as a just and noble lord, despite his underlings back talking about his supposed low birth... his relationship with the Starks is a good one.

Tyrion and Sansa connect finally and have a bunch of ginger-imp babies... They live out their years in the Vale... Tyrion still consorts with whores whom he has raised up to the keep in buckets...

Jon rides a dragon and burns Jamie to cinders... If Arya already killed him then the dragon burns the body, I really don’t care. Death to the Lannisters…

Theon tries to repent his sins and make peace with the Stark family but Jon's dragon burbs at the wrong time and burns him too...

Everyone else... who cares?

BOOM ,.. what’s taking this guy so long?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Jon rides a dragon and burns Jamie to cinders... If Arya already killed him then the dragon burns the body, I really don’t care. Death to the Lannisters…

Jaime's likely headed for a tragic demise, but I'm not sure how you can be rooting against him at this point. One of the few truly likable characters by the end of ADwD.

 

[returnofthemack]

Have any of you guys read the "Tales of Dunk and Egg"? I saw some people referencing them in the forums mgriff linked to. They're insanely expensive though, I think I might have to download them.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Have any of you guys read the "Tales of Dunk and Egg"? I saw some people referencing them in the forums mgriff linked to. They're insanely expensive though, I think I might have to download them.

Type "Hedge Knight pdf" into Google. You can at least get the first one for free.

Edit: You can find all three in pdf form online. The 2nd is titled "The Sworn Sword", and the third is "The Mystery Knight". I've got my reading material for tonight.

 

[IrishLion]

It's crazy to see the evidence for Varys-Illyrio-Aegon-Blackfyre when it's all mapped out... There are just subtle, tiny bits and pieces throughout each of these expansive books, but when connected it seems to fit. The only not-subtle part is in the first book, when Arya hears Varys and Illyrio talking deep under the Red Keep when she gets lost.

(By the way, how did Illyrio sneak into Kings Landing? Never thought about that, considering he had just recently seen Dany get married to Drogo).

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

Have any of you guys read the "Tales of Dunk and Egg"? I saw some people referencing them in the forums mgriff linked to. They're insanely expensive though, I think I might have to download them.

I've got The Hedge Knight and Sworn Sword on audio.
They're very short and really not worth spending much on.

 

[ACamp1900]

Jaime's likely headed for a tragic demise, but I'm not sure how you can be rooting against him at this point. One of the few truly likable characters by the end of ADwD.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

(By the way, how did Illyrio sneak into Kings Landing? Never thought about that, considering he had just recently seen Dany get married to Drogo).

Varys has little trouble smuggling people in and out of the city. And as for the journey from Pentos to King's Landing, it's not called the Narrow Sea for nothing.

 

[returnofthemack]

I've got The Hedge Knight and Sworn Sword on audio.
They're very short and really not worth spending much on.

That's what I figured. I downloaded them on pdf and they're ~80 pages each. But just the first one is $100 on Amazon!

 

[IrishLax]

Here are some things I'm still pondering:

What are each of the 3s in Dani's prophecy thing? I can see multiple explanations of each.

Is Dani eventually going to go to Asshai and then sail east to land on Westeros? That'd be pretty boss... and Caterly Rock would be effed.

What exactly is the deal with shade of the evening?

How exactly, with the way the map is constructed, is someone supposed to sail from anywhere into slaver's bay without getting dangerous close to Valyria? Seems like a ridiculously perilous trip.

Is Arya going to end up going full darkside?

Why is Jaquen H'ghar in Oldtown/what exactly is the deal with the maesters/did the maesters actually bring down the dragons the first time around? And do the Faceless Men have some sort of allegiance that isn't obvious right now?

Is R'hlorr bad, good, or inbetween? Do the Seven exist? The parallels between the Seven and early Catholicism is striking. What about other gods... is the Drowned God real (see: Patchface), are the Old Gods actually "gods"? There is a lot of the religious/god stuff that is intriguing to me.

Is Tyrion a Targ? The "you are no son of mine" thing from Tywin had me do some digging... interesting theories out there.

 

[IrishLion]

Varys has little trouble smuggling people in and out of the city. And as for the journey from Pentos to King's Landing, it's not called the Narrow Sea for nothing.

Never did pay much attention in my geography classes.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Is Tyrion a Targ? The "you are no son of mine" thing from Tywin had me do some digging... interesting theories out there.

When Tywin sends Tyrion to King's Landing, doesn't he answer Tyrion's question by telling him "because you are my son" or words to that effect? I might be mixing the show with the books here but I'm pretty sure it's a similar scene in both. I also think it fits because Tywin seems to feel a particularly strong shame about Tyrion.

The one thing that has never stopped bugging me is how Petyr was able to convince the singer to confess to killing Lysa. I am pretty sure THAT was never explained.