Hey, Michigan fan here, I sometimes read this site since I like to know what's going on with one of our biggest rivals, and this place is infinitely more sane than NDNation.
You guys seem to have a lot of confidence that ND will flip several of Michigan's current commits, and who knows, that may come true - 2013 NSD is obviously a long way off. Especially if Michigan falls flat on its face this year.
That said, as a counter-point, Michigan had most of its verbal commitments very early last year as well (majority of the class was full by summer). Out of all those players, all but two ended up signing with UM, and the two that didn't were booted by the staff, not the other way around. This was despite the Urban Meyer poaching extravaganza, other top schools working hard to flip our best commits, etc. So there is a (small) track record of Hoke + co. being pretty successful at retaining early commitments. They make it clear that visiting other schools = you are not part of the class, and have a major "family" atmosphere/vibe going on (feel free to laugh at that, but multiple recruits have cited it as the preeminent reason they stuck with Michigan). On-field success will obviously play a huge role in whether 2013 commits stick or not, but the above factors give some additional measure of confidence that they will.
Guess we'll see.
