USC recruiting and everything else

[TorontoGold]

But they'll get drafted as is. Draft position is all relative to the player. People act like the #1 picks should protect themselves, but you dont think the player that has a shot at round 3 but also risk of dropping to round 5 has as much on the line, relative to their future.

Unsurprising, this take is completely off.

The 3rd round to 5th round salary is not that different. Dropping from #1 to #10 you're only make 54% of what you would have made at #1. Dropping from the first pick of the 3rd round to the first pick of the 5th round you're still making ~74% of what you would have made.

Top ten talent level players have completely different decisions.

NFL Draft

A real-time, sortable list of NFL draft including total value, guaranteed money, and complete salary breakdowns.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Lberry]

Unsurprising, this take is completely off.

The 3rd round to 5th round salary is not that different. Dropping from #1 to #10 you're only make 54% of what you would have made at #1. Dropping from the first pick of the 3rd round to the first pick of the 5th round you're still making ~74% of what you would have made.

Top ten talent level players have completely different decisions.

NFL Draft

A real-time, sortable list of NFL draft including total value, guaranteed money, and complete salary breakdowns.

www.spotrac.com

You're missing the concept. Fill in the blank on rounds to use as an example, it's irrelevant. The guys barely getting drafted have as much if not more incentive to sit since at full health. They might get drafted, but with a serious injury, they don't.

If Caleb Williams tears an acl he goes 4th overall instead of 1st. The later round guys are risking more.

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

It’s a really unpopular take, but not a terrible one for specifically this kid.

He’s a mercenary playing for a mercenary coach at a mercenary program. He’s always come off as a me-first kid with me-first decision makers around him, so why would doing this be out of character? We know who Caleb Williams is, and I’m sure the NFL does too.

Someone will roll the dice on him at #1 if he never plays another snap.

Starting at 38:00

On the same train of thought. And Cowherd is a B I G USC guy.

Paraphrasing:
“What I don’t like what I see about the Colorado and USC programs, this is still college football and I’m for NIL, but they’ve become coach, quarterback dominate. ‘I’m the man.’ Oregon, Washington have first round quarterbacks; they’re about the program. And it was so refreshing, I want there to be a gap between pro and college football. I like the cheerleaders. The bands. The collegiate feel. I don’t have a problem with NIL, but I think USC has gotten sloppy. I think they’re about Caleb. Making great plays. Too much Heisman talk. Part of what I love about college football is its history. USC feels a bit boujee to me. They’ve fallen in love with the brand USC and they really don’t do anything well. They don’t run well. They don’t pass block. They don’t tackle. In a strange way when I watched them play Notre Dame I thought ‘they deserve this.’ They’ve gotten a little too much love too quickly. Washington and Oregon are buttoned up. Well coached. NFL players. But it’s about the community. The programs. The stadium. The fans. As I watched the Oregon and Washington game, and then the Notre Dame USC game, I felt the former teams were really easy to root for, and USC increasingly a tough watch and hard to root for.”

Followed by the guest:
“What happened to the NBA? It kinda became a mercenary league. People don’t care as much. When you get 53 transfers you lose a game you’re up 29-0 you had no business in losing at home. To me, 48-20, it’s one thing to lose but USC losing 48-20? It’s an indictment on the program.”

 

[Irish#1]

Another element to consider is if he shuts it down, he and his father lose the leverage they have been building to try to manipulate what team he goes to in the draft.

They have very little influence or leverage on where he ends up.

 

[TorontoGold]

You're missing the concept. Fill in the blank on rounds to use as an example, it's irrelevant. The guys barely getting drafted have as much if not more incentive to sit since at full health. They might get drafted, but with a serious injury, they don't.

If Caleb Williams tears an acl he goes 4th overall instead of 1st. The later round guys are risking more.

What's your point? You said that a player dropping from #1 to #10 has the same risk as a 3rd to 5th, which we know is not true. That's false. If you're advocating for players in the mid round range for shutting it down midseason then you're again wrong, because they don't have the name brand value to carry them through the season and combine to maintain their draft spot.

Brandon Joseph signed a deal worth 2.7M as UDFA, compared to a 7th round pick signing for $3.9M. That's 69% of the contract value of getting picked in the 7th round. Still better than if Williams dropped from #1 to #10.

It only becomes comparable if you were going to be solidly picked in the 3rd round and then dropped out completely.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Lincoln Riley on the loss to Utah: “As gut wrenching of a defeat as I can remember in my career.”

What about the game before this one where your spine was ripped out by some Blue and Gold leprechauns Mortal Kombat style on national television?

Yeah but he knew he was losing that game.,…LOL. He thought he was gonna run the table once he got back to P12 play

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

On paper, you'd expect them to beat Cal and then probably lose their last three.

Riley can make kings, but kings need walls and armies.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Lincoln Riley on the loss to Utah: “As gut wrenching of a defeat as I can remember in my career.”

What about the game before this one where your spine was ripped out by some Blue and Gold leprechauns Mortal Kombat style on national television?

This one was close, they stood no chance on that night against us.

 

[NDdomer2]

But they'll get drafted as is. Draft position is all relative to the player. People act like the #1 picks should protect themselves, but you dont think the player that has a shot at round 3 but also risk of dropping to round 5 has as much on the line, relative to their future.

The likelihood that a team views the 3rd rounder the same AFTER the sit position is less likely than someone considered worthy of a #1 overall tho and that player also could play himself into MORE money. Caleb can't.

 

[Lberry]

The likelihood that a team views the 3rd rounder the same AFTER the sit position is less likely than someone considered worthy of a #1 overall tho and that player also could play himself into MORE money. Caleb can't.

Agree, obviously, that Caleb can not move up so there's little/no rewards. But there's also very little risk - if he tears an ACL he's still a top 5 pick. Teams will be happy to tank another year if they get a franchise QB for the next 12.

But the 3rd-5th rounder has higher risk (possibly not drafted at all with ACL) and I'm not sure the reward is high because they could stay healthy and play themselves into the 2nd round, sure, but just as easily play themselves into the 4th round or get hurt and lose the draft all together. I may not be making it clear but there's a very strong argument those on the fence of a mid rouns draft have much more to lose than a top 5 pick

 

[calvegas04]

 

[IA4irish]

Troy is burning. I listened to some national podcasts and they feel like things are “off” At SC. This program as currently built will not handle failure well. I would look for at least 2 more losses this year. Good chance Caleb shuts it down. Lincoln could look to move on as well as I don’t think he wants to put in the work to rebuild

 

[dublinirish]

oh god did another of his extra martial affairs get rumbled

 

[RipWheeler]

Taking a page out of the Urban Meyer play book.

 

[Calabrese's People]

Doctors orders....

 

[Irish#1]

Troy is burning. I listened to some national podcasts and they feel like things are “off” At SC. This program as currently built will not handle failure well. I would look for at least 2 more losses this year. Good chance Caleb shuts it down. Lincoln could look to move on as well as I don’t think he wants to put in the work to rebuild

Hell, he doesn't want to even put in the work to have an average defense let alone a rebuild! lol

Mentioned on the radio this morning that Williams didn't show up for his NIL appearance.

 

[stlnd01]

Maybe it happens all the time and flies under the radar because most programs aren't watched as closely as USC after two brutal losses but I can't really ever remember hearing about a (young, healthy) coach missing back-to-back practices on a mid-season game week because of "an illness."

 

[Irish#1]

Maybe it happens all the time and flies under the radar because most programs aren't watched as closely as USC after two brutal losses but I can't really ever remember hearing about a (young, healthy) coach missing back-to-back practices on a mid-season game week because of "an illness."

After the last two weeks, probably takin a couple of "mental health" days.

 

[Huntr]

Maybe it happens all the time and flies under the radar because most programs aren't watched as closely as USC after two brutal losses but I can't really ever remember hearing about a (young, healthy) coach missing back-to-back practices on a mid-season game week because of "an illness."

maybe Covid

maybe bullshit

maybe fuck USC

 

[brewdog_14527]

Take this with a grain of salt, but a friend texted me that his USC alum friend said that they think Lincoln is gone. Said he was cancelling appearances and was not talking with some recruits. Now, this does coincide with him missing practice due to "illness," but thought I would throw it out there. Again, take it with a grain of salt, as it is hearsay. I would assume that, if true, it would be at the end of the season vs a Bobby Petrino/Falcons thing. He may wait til the end of the year to see who gets the number one pick so he can start lobbying for that job to go with Caleb.

 

[Lberry]

Perhaps he got his booster.

 

[Irish#1]

Take this with a grain of salt, but a friend texted me that his USC alum friend said that they think Lincoln is gone. Said he was cancelling appearances and was not talking with some recruits. Now, this does coincide with him missing practice due to "illness," but thought I would throw it out there. Again, take it with a grain of salt, as it is hearsay. I would assume that, if true, it would be at the end of the season vs a Bobby Petrino/Falcons thing. He may wait til the end of the year to see who gets the number one pick so he can start lobbying for that job to go with Caleb.

Seems weird that he would cancel appearances if he's not leaving until the end of the year, but it would be weirder for him to quit now. If he is a no show at practice today, rumors are going to fly.

 

[mango4]

Perhaps he got his booster.

Stop bringing politics and Covid shit into every thread.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Michigan and SC having terrible weeks, "but Gerraldo Porque can't call plays."

Life is all about what's relative.

 

[Calabrese's People]

Take this with a grain of salt, but a friend texted me that his USC alum friend said that they think Lincoln is gone. Said he was cancelling appearances and was not talking with some recruits. Now, this does coincide with him missing practice due to "illness," but thought I would throw it out there. Again, take it with a grain of salt, as it is hearsay. I would assume that, if true, it would be at the end of the season vs a Bobby Petrino/Falcons thing. He may wait til the end of the year to see who gets the number one pick so he can start lobbying for that job to go with Caleb.

Maybe he's weighing up the cost benefit of quitting now vs quitting after getting pumped by Washington, Oregon & UCLA. Hard to see an NFL owner selling a fanbase on an exciting new coach coming off 5 losses in his last 6 games....

 

[PolishDomer]

Perhaps he got his booster.

In a medical context, or female context?

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Maybe he's weighing up the cost benefit of quitting now vs quitting after getting pumped by Washington, Oregon & UCLA. Hard to see an NFL owner selling a fanbase on an exciting new coach coming off 5 losses in his last 6 games....

Another guy who will want stupid money that the McCaskeys won't pay. Not the least bit interested in seeing this guy in Chicago.

There was a time when Riley really intrigued me, mostly early in his tenure at OU, but the guy has zero clue as an HC how to come up with a middle of the road defense and he's an arrogant paranoid jackass on top of his coaching faults.

Never expect much and you'll never be let down.

 

[ulukinatme]

Maybe he's weighing up the cost benefit of quitting now vs quitting after getting pumped by Washington, Oregon & UCLA. Hard to see an NFL owner selling a fanbase on an exciting new coach coming off 5 losses in his last 6 games....

I feel for whatever team gets Caleb. It's not going to be Johnny Football 2.0, but it's close. Williams has wheels, but that's what's kept him alive and successful. He can't break down a defense and pass his way out of situations in a pocket as we saw two weeks ago.

 

[Calabrese's People]

Caleb has ridiculous skills. The challenge will be projecting his toughness, resiliance and leadership. He's been designated a star-to-be since a young age and his team has been very selective in positioning him in situations where his personal success has been a primary requirement (ie following a coach renowned for producing Heisman winning seasons for QB's, with a playstyle that pads stats but doesnt win big, evenly matched, gritty, all-or-nothing games).
How does that translate to an NFL locker-room situation where accountability, mental toughness and sacrifice are demanded. He's most probably going to go to a place where the perception will be that he will be missing link that will fix all the issues with roster building, locker-room harmony and coaching performance, and its going to hit a wall early on (as it does for every young QB). How he will respond is the franchise-pivotal question, considering the pressure to sign him is going to be immense.
NFL GM's right now:

 

[stlnd01]

I feel for whatever team gets Caleb. It's not going to be Johnny Football 2.0, but it's close. Williams has wheels, but that's what's kept him alive and successful. He can't break down a defense and pass his way out of situations in a pocket as we saw two weeks ago.

Yep. His wheels won't save him in the NFL. Every team will do to him what we did, except with better athletes.