The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[koonja]

I was all for having a shitty schedule that all but guaranteed 10 + wins.... But living in Ohio and seeing that these fans are the only ones that care about OSU this year really turns me off to a shit schedule.

Every Monday the intern comes in 'man, did you watch OSU?'... And not trying to be mean, I'm like 'No. When Cincinnati is a big game for you, you're not going to make my 3 way remote rotation much this year'.

And it dawned on me, no one outside of OSU fans will be watching them and their games this year. I don't want to be that school.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Are they calling that the Big East Division?

I would hope so.

 

[Black Irish]

I hope Notre Dame does not join the ACC full time. The only benefit I can see is that the Irish have the opportunity to play in a Conference Championship game. Aside from that, I don't see the benefit in ND giving up its independence and be able to schedule new, interesting match-ups while still be able to hold onto traditional rivalries.

 

[koonja]

I'm for staying independent, but I wouldn't hate fighting for a conference title every year.

 

[BeauBenken]

An open challenge: find a better scheduling model than one consisting of:

- Five ACC teams
- Three or four 99%-wins FBS teams
- Four or three rivals (Michigan State and Purdue?)

An example:

1- vs. Miami (OH)
2- vs. Ball State
3- vs. Michigan State
4- vs. Rice
5- vs. Duke (ACC #5)
6- at Florida State (ACC#1)
7- BYE
8- vs. Southern Cal
9- at Navy
10- at Pittsburgh (ACC #3)
11- at Virginia (ACC #4)
12- vs. Virginia Tech (ACC #2)
13- BYE
14- at Stanford
C- BYE

Can I please see ND come to BSU? hahaha

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

If we join a conference full-time it's because it's essentially necessary to make the playoffs. Let's say we lose this weekend and win out. Florida State wins the ACC and Stanford wins the Pac-12. If both of those teams get in the playoffs over us I bet it is at least considered.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Also I was thinking about this 16 team ACC hypothetical a little bit ago. I think the best way to schedule this conference would be four 4-team clusters and the divisions are ever-changing. Something like:

Notre Dame
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse

Florida State
Miami
Georgia Tech
Clemson

North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke

Virginia
Virginia Tech
Navy
Pittsburgh

Every year you play your cluster, another cluster, and one "rival" from the one you don't play. So, for example, this year it could be the North Carolina & Mid-Atlantic clusters as a division and Southeast and Northeast clusters as a division. It would be very unbalanced, but that's already a thing in the ACC. ND would play FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT, Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse, and their rival Navy. For years where they play the Mid-Atlantic Cluster they would have a secondary and tertiary rival, let's say Miami and North Carolina. I think this idea would be the perfect one for a 16 team conference. It keeps things fresh without repeating opponents except for geographic rivals, and it perserves rivalries as well as introducing rotating divisions. Sure, some years it would be super unbalanced but it would always change.

 

[gkIrish]

Also I was thinking about this 16 team ACC hypothetical a little bit ago. I think the best way to schedule this conference would be four 4-team clusters and the divisions are ever-changing. Something like:

Notre Dame
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse

Florida State
Miami
Georgia Tech
Clemson

North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke

Virginia
Virginia Tech
Navy
Pittsburgh

This "cluster" is way too good and the NC State cluster is way too bad.

 

[woolybug25]

The playoffs will make things interesting. In competitive years, I fear that our lack of championship game will hurt us with the voters?

If so, what do you y'all think about this? (hear me out here). An annual game with Hawaii, in Hawaii? I know it is probably something we would never consider, but I would see it as a great opportunity.

- Recruits are guaranteed a free trip to Hawaii every year.
- Almost a guaranteed win.
- We could demand the lions (if not damn near every penny) share of revenue both tv and ticket revenue.
- Recruiting advantage with the Samoan population.
- Get an additional game on our schedule to replace a championship game.
- Pretty dope Shamrock Series spot.

I know... pretty much a pipe dream. But it does seem pretty cool.

 

[gkIrish]

The playoffs will make things interesting. In competitive years, I fear that our lack of championship game will hurt us with the voters?

If so, what do you y'all think about this? (hear me out here). An annual game with Hawaii, in Hawaii? I know it is probably something we would never consider, but I would see it as a great opportunity.

- Recruits are guaranteed a free trip to Hawaii every year.
- Almost a guaranteed win.
- We could demand the lions (if not damn near every penny) share of revenue both tv and ticket revenue.
- Recruiting advantage with the Samoan population.
- Get an additional game on our schedule to replace a championship game.
- Pretty dope Shamrock Series spot.

I know... pretty much a pipe dream. But it does seem pretty cool.

All your points are valid IMO except the bolded. I don't it adds anything at all to our resume. And it would HAVE to be played at the end of the season so travel won't affect other games.

 

[woolybug25]

All your points are valid IMO except the bolded. I don't it adds anything at all to our resume. And it would HAVE to be played at the end of the season so travel won't affect other games.

We could have it as our last game, when the championship games are being held. Our schedule is typically more difficult than the rest of college football. So it adds another win to our total. It certainly adds more than the cupcakes other leagues are adding to their schedules. It's at least a D1 team, a road game and a 13th game. Some teams don't have any significant wins until they get to their championship game. At ND, we have 3-4 opportunities for signature wins throughout the season. I'm not sure adding another loseable game is the answer either.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

This "cluster" is way too good and the NC State cluster is way too bad.

Right now it is, but in 2007 it would have been a weak cluster with Clemson being the only team to win more than 7 games in it. It's all cyclical.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Irish Bama in the Big Easy. They need to play each other in the regular season at some point. Ticket prices would be crazy.

 

[gkIrish]

We could have it as our last game, when the championship games are being held. Our schedule is typically more difficult than the rest of college football. So it adds another win to our total. It certainly adds more than the cupcakes other leagues are adding to their schedules. It's at least a D1 team, a road game and a 13th game. Some teams don't have any significant wins until they get to their championship game. At ND, we have 3-4 opportunities for signature wins throughout the season. I'm not sure adding another loseable game is the answer either.

How does adding a non-signature win help when the other teams we are competing with will be playing in conference championship games the same week? If we win but play poorly it could hurt us.

 

[gkIrish]

Right now it is, but in 2007 it would have been a weak cluster with Clemson being the only team to win more than 7 games in it. It's all cyclical.

That's probably the one exceptional year. Duke is perennially the worst team in the ACC despite a good year last year. The other three teams have combined for 2? ACC championships the last 25 years off the top of my head while the FSU cluster has the vast majority.

 

[woolybug25]

How does adding a non-signature win help when the other teams we are competing with will be playing in conference championship games the same week? If we win but play poorly it could hurt us.

Because we still play more top tier opponents. We aren't fighting the fact they play a championship game, we are fighting the fact that conference champions have an additional win on their schedule. It's quite possible that an 11-1 Notre Dame team eventually gets passed by a 12-1 conference champion because of that additional win. They will overlook the fact that an 11-1 season could still be a season where we defeat 1-3 conference champions during our regular season.

I don't believe that we need some arbitrary championship game against an opponent that could oftentimes be our 3rd or 4th best opponent during a season. We play more high profile games than the rest of the NCAA, so a championship game is overkill. A simple victory at the end of the season will mitigate the lack of 13 games vs the rest of the NCAA. We aren't in need of another difficult matchup, we are in need of a 13th game.

 

[gkIrish]

Because we still play more top tier opponents. We aren't fighting the fact they play a championship game, we are fighting the fact that conference champions have an additional win on their schedule. It's quite possible that an 11-1 Notre Dame team eventually gets passed by a 12-1 conference champion because of that additional win. They will overlook the fact that an 11-1 season could still be a season where we defeat 1-3 conference champions during our regular season.

I don't believe that we need some arbitrary championship game against an opponent that could oftentimes be our 3rd or 4th best opponent during a season. We play more high profile games than the rest of the NCAA, so a championship game is overkill. A simple victory at the end of the season will mitigate the lack of 13 games vs the rest of the NCAA. We aren't in need of another difficult matchup, we are in need of a 13th game.

So in your scenario ND is 11-1 and say Ohio St. is also 11-1 going into conference championship week. You think beating Hawaii will make up for Ohio St. getting a win over say, Nebraska? I don't see it helping and it could only hurt if we look terrible. And of course we could lose...

 

[woolybug25]

So in your scenario ND is 11-1 and say Ohio St. is also 11-1 going into conference championship week. You think beating Hawaii will make up for Ohio St. getting a win over say, Nebraska? I don't see it helping and it could only hurt if we look terrible. And of course we could lose...

You're looking at it in a vacuum. Do I think in a vacuum, that Hawaii is better than Nebraska? No, I don't think any reasonable person would argue that. But the game wouldn't be in a vacuum like that.

Do I think an 11-1 Notre Dame team that has defeated the Pac12 Champ, the ACC Champ and another top 10 ranked team would benefit of a game that would allow them to match the win total of say... a weak conference champ like OSU? Absolutely yes.

We aren't comparing a game against Hawaii to a championship game. We are comparing Notre Dame not having a championship game at all and depending on having either 1) More overall wins or 2) More overall quality wins. We operate at a disadvantage if we are forced to play one less game than the rest of the playoff contenders.

 

[wizards8507]

So in your scenario ND is 11-1 and say Ohio St. is also 11-1 going into conference championship week. You think beating Hawaii will make up for Ohio St. getting a win over say, Nebraska? I don't see it helping and it could only hurt if we look terrible. And of course we could lose...

It's not Hawai'i versus Nebraska. In your example, Ohio State is going to play Nebraska no matter what we do. It's Hawai'i versus sit at home and play no one. If Notre Dame and Ohio State are an "equal" 11-1, then obviously the conference championship gets the tiebreaker over a Hawai'i game. However, what if Notre Dame's 11-1 is more impressive than Ohio State's? They might pass us with a conference win if we sit at home, but not if we get that 12th win. We wouldn't be trying to leapfrog anybody with a semi-cupcake, just prevent getting leapfrogged ourselves.

 

[gkIrish]

You're looking at it in a vacuum. Do I think in a vacuum, that Hawaii is better than Nebraska? No, I don't think any reasonable person would argue that. But the game wouldn't be in a vacuum like that.

Do I think an 11-1 Notre Dame team that has defeated the Pac12 Champ, the ACC Champ and another top 10 ranked team would benefit of a game that would allow them to match the win total of say... a weak conference champ like OSU? Absolutely yes.

We aren't comparing a game against Hawaii to a championship game. We are comparing Notre Dame not having a championship game at all and depending on having either 1) More overall wins or 2) More overall quality wins. We operate at a disadvantage if we are forced to play one less game than the rest of the playoff contenders.

My point is that if our resume is good enough across a 12 game schedule to be competitive with a conference champ, the voters likely won't give a flip that we played a 13th game against Hawaii. It can only hurt.

 

[woolybug25]

It's not Hawai'i versus Nebraska. In your example, Ohio State is going to play Nebraska no matter what we do. It's Hawai'i versus sit at home and play no one. If Notre Dame and Ohio State are an "equal" 11-1, then obviously the conference championship gets the tiebreaker over a Hawai'i game. However, what if Notre Dame's 11-1 is more impressive than Ohio State's? They might pass us with a conference win if we sit at home, but not if we get that 12th win. We wouldn't be trying to leapfrog anybody with a semi-cupcake, just prevent getting leapfrogged ourselves.

EXACTLY!

Every year that we play one less game than everyone else, we will watch their championship games and possibly watch a team that should be behind us, pass us simply for having more victories. Wizard hit the nail on the head.

 

[woolybug25]

My point is that if our resume is good enough across a 12 game schedule to be competitive with a conference champ, the voters likely won't give a flip that we played a 13th game against Hawaii. It can only hurt.

See Wizard's point above.

Also, even in a loss, this game could never hurt. If we are bad enough to lose to Hawaii, the playoffs are a moot point. In that situation, at least we are making headway in recruiting. It's a win-win for the program if you ask me.

 

[T Town Tommy]

There is something to be said for conference championship games. First off, it usually is a pretty marquee matchup. That alone will give an otherwise even team with ND more exposure. Season long resumes will matter but let a a couple of top 20 teams square off in a showcase game and get a lot of publicity while Notre Dame is sitting home watching the tube. I don't think a committee will remember the Irish not playing... but they will sure remember the conference championship game.

 

[gkIrish]

It's not Hawai'i versus Nebraska. In your example, Ohio State is going to play Nebraska no matter what we do. It's Hawai'i versus sit at home and play no one. If Notre Dame and Ohio State are an "equal" 11-1, then obviously the conference championship gets the tiebreaker over a Hawai'i game. However, what if Notre Dame's 11-1 is more impressive than Ohio State's? They might pass us with a conference win if we sit at home, but not if we get that 12th win. We wouldn't be trying to leapfrog anybody with a semi-cupcake, just prevent getting leapfrogged ourselves.

If ND is more impressive at "11-1" it makes essentially no difference if we play Hawaii or not. Getting a 12th win against a bad opponent does nothing. Presumably, the committee isn't simply picking the team with the most wins. Either:

A) OSU beating Nebraska is enough to jump us or
B) It's not

 

[gkIrish]

EXACTLY!

Every year that we play one less game than everyone else, we will watch their championship games and possibly watch a team that should be behind us, pass us simply for having more victories. Wizard hit the nail on the head.

When has Notre Dame every not made a big bowl game because they were idle in conference championship week? Honest question.

Also what about the risk of injury to our players ahead of the bowl game?

 

[woolybug25]

If ND is more impressive at "11-1" it makes essentially no difference if we play Hawaii or not. Getting a 12th win against a bad opponent does nothing. Presumably, the committee isn't simply picking the team with the most wins. Either:

A) OSU beating Nebraska is enough to jump us or
B) It's not

Yeah... I just disagree with that. I think you are grossly underestimating the value of another check in the win column. If there wasn't a value there, then we wouldn't see all of these SEC teams paying big money to play teams like North Texas Armadillos.

It's fair if that's your opinion. But I disagree. I think voters will look at strength of schedule, but we will have to overcome less actual games every year. Other teams, media, etc will accuse us of not having to accomplish as much as conference affiliated teams. A win is a win.

 

[woolybug25]

When has Notre Dame every not made a big bowl game because they were idle in conference championship week? Honest question.

The playoff system is custom built for the Big 5. Do you really believe that a 11-1 Notre Dame team would go to the playoffs if (regardless of SoS) say, Florida State wins the ACC? What one of the Power 5 are we supposed to pass? Big10 (Rose Bowl), SEC (haha), Pac12 (Rose Bowl), Big12 (Sugar Bowl) or the ACC (Orange Bowl). There is a reason that all of the teams shuffled rapidly as playoffs loomed. The writing is on the wall, and that is why Notre Dame affiliated ourselves with the ACC. Too bad the conference still has the ability to trump us come playoffs.

Just like in '12, where there were a lot of people that didn't think we should be in the title game. Most pointed to the fact that other teams played in a championship game. It was main argument against us and many people wanted certain 12-1 teams to pass us. Then we fell on our faces, installing credence to their arguments in some people's opinions.

Also what about the risk of injury to our players ahead of the bowl game?

So it's ok for every other playoff team to risk injury in a 13th game in order to get in, but we shouldn't have to? I'm not sure that passes the smell test.

 

[gkIrish]

Yeah... I just disagree with that. I think you are grossly underestimating the value of another check in the win column. If there wasn't a value there, then we wouldn't see all of these SEC teams paying big money to play teams like North Texas Armadillos.

It's fair if that's your opinion. But I disagree. I think voters will look at strength of schedule, but we will have to overcome less actual games every year. Other teams, media, etc will accuse us of not having to accomplish as much as conference affiliated teams. A win is a win.

...which will be severely harmed by playing Hawaii.


Look, from what I understand, the committee isn't meeting at the very end of the regular season to make these decisions. I think they are even releasing rankings as the season goes on. Therefore, we have to assume that going into championship week, the committee will have their top 6 teams in order. Your argument is therefore that beating Hawaii could mitigate the effect of an OSU Big Ten championship win. That makes no sense to me. Either a) we had enough of a cushion going into that game for OSU's win to be irrelevant or b) we were tied or behind OSU before the game and we aren't going to pass them no matter what.

It's theoretically possible, I suppose, for our "cushion" to be at a magic number that makes a win over anyone at all important. It's possible, but unlikely. And that possibility isn't enough to warrant risking a loss, injury, or a bad performance which actually could destroy any cushion we already had.

 

[gkIrish]

The playoff system is custom built for the Big 5. Do you really believe that a 11-1 Notre Dame team would go to the playoffs if (regardless of SoS) say, Florida State wins the ACC? What one of the Power 5 are we supposed to pass? Big10 (Rose Bowl), SEC (haha), Pac12 (Rose Bowl), Big12 (Sugar Bowl) or the ACC (Orange Bowl). There is a reason that all of the teams shuffled rapidly as playoffs loomed. The writing is on the wall, and that is why Notre Dame affiliated ourselves with the ACC. Too bad the conference still has the ability to trump us come playoffs.

Just like in '12, where there were a lot of people that didn't think we should be in the title game. Most pointed to the fact that other teams played in a championship game. It was main argument against us and many people wanted certain 12-1 teams to pass us. Then we fell on our faces, installing credence to their arguments in some people's opinions.



So it's ok for every other playoff team to risk injury in a 13th game in order to get in, but we shouldn't have to? I'm not sure that passes the smell test.

Your argument is that an 11-1 ND team isn't good enough to make the playoffs because they didn't win a conference championship. But somehow a 12-1 ND with an extra win against Hawaii somehow now would make the playoffs? I just don't agree.

 

[IrishLion]

Every year that ND is in double-digit wins, potentially with a playoff birth on the line, and then has to travel all the way to Hawaii to play their final game of the year has "heartbreak" written all over it.

Sure, ND should win that game every time, but the long plane flight, plus a potentially fired-up Hawaii that's ready to try and play spoiler, plus the fact that no one is going to care/watch that game while conference championship games are on anyway, sounds terrible.