The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

Dale

Well-known member
Messages
16,113
Reaction score
27,371
Not a fan of jumping on the FCS train, especially since we don't have the conference championship to offset it like other potential playoff teams do. I suppose it was just a matter of time before the bridge got burnt, but I don't think it helps us in any way. Lose/lose situation: win and it's considered a glorified BYE, lose and you've got egg on your face. At the very least it's nice that they scheduled an HBCU for the first FCS game.

I suppose if Cinci/G5 teams can finally get in when we were the only game on their schedule, then we should have no problem getting in if we run the table with an FCS. Lose a game with an FCS on the schedule...probably not in over a P5 one loss champ.
Tbh I don’t really understand giving legitimate thought to losing the game haha. Sure App St and another example exist out there but you’d be talking about one of the biggest upsets in college football history it seems odd to weigh it as one of the “cons” at all. Yes that would certainly hurt a playoff chance in a given year haha. So would losing to New Mexico or whoever they booted off the schedule and that is 100x more likely to lose than this.
 

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,044
Reaction score
6,110
Tbh I don’t really understand giving legitimate thought to losing the game haha. Sure App St and another example exist out there but you’d be talking about one of the biggest upsets in college football history it seems odd to weigh it as one of the “cons” at all. Yes that would certainly hurt a playoff chance in a given year haha. So would losing to New Mexico or whoever they booted off the schedule and that is 100x more likely to lose than this.
I think the App St game showed how a really talented FCS school could pull off the upset of a blue blood if everything broke their way:

1. Opponent is overlooking FCS opponent
2. FCS opponent is able to keep it close entire game
3. FCS opponent is one of the more dominant programs in FCS (I think App St jumped to FBS a few years after that upset)

I love dunking on scUM as much as any Irish fan but that same scUM team that will forever be memorialized as being upset in the Big House by an FCS team went on to beat the infallible Tim Tebow and the indestructible Urban Meyer-led Florida Gators in that year’s bowl game.
 

ACamp1900

Counting my ‘bet against ND’ winnings
Messages
48,947
Reaction score
11,226
Is Eddie George getting a degree from ND currently?? Did I miss something?
 

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,044
Reaction score
6,110
Not a fan of jumping on the FCS train, especially since we don't have the conference championship to offset it like other potential playoff teams do. I suppose it was just a matter of time before the bridge got burnt, but I don't think it helps us in any way. Lose/lose situation: win and it's considered a glorified BYE, lose and you've got egg on your face. At the very least it's nice that they scheduled an HBCU for the first FCS game.

I suppose if Cinci/G5 teams can finally get in when we were the only game on their schedule, then we should have no problem getting in if we run the table with an FCS. Lose a game with an FCS on the schedule...probably not in over a P5 one loss champ.
Big picture: it’s no big deal. I had moved on from the ”never played an FCS school” having any significance. It was more about defending ND’s schedule when they were a one loss team vying for a CFP spot vs a one loss team w/ a CCG. Other than the 2012 win over OU and the 2020 win over Clemson, ND hasn’t been able to show they can beat a current power thus validating their resume. IF they beat tOSU & Clemson next season, the TSU game will be an afterthought.
 

Some Irish Bloke

Five foot nothin', a hundred and nothin'
Messages
6,346
Reaction score
5,922

notredomer23

Staph Member
Messages
17,636
Reaction score
17,563

6. Clemson at Notre Dame, November 5
5. Notre Dame at USC, November 26
4. Alabama at Texas, September 10
3. Cincinnati at Arkansas, September 3
2. Georgia vs. Oregon in Atlanta, September 3
1. Notre Dame at Ohio State, September 3


Pretty questionable top 25 list, especially putting Cincy at Arkansas in the top 10 seems pretty egregious. They also include Baylor vs BYU and Arkansas vs BYU but not ND vs BYU... Overall a good glimpse as what's to come this fall.
 

IrishBoognish

Well-known member
Messages
2,344
Reaction score
3,619
I think the App St game showed how a really talented FCS school could pull off the upset of a blue blood if everything broke their way:

1. Opponent is overlooking FCS opponent
2. FCS opponent is able to keep it close entire game
3. FCS opponent is one of the more dominant programs in FCS (I think App St jumped to FBS a few years after that upset)

I love dunking on scUM as much as any Irish fan but that same scUM team that will forever be memorialized as being upset in the Big House by an FCS team went on to beat the infallible Tim Tebow and the indestructible Urban Meyer-led Florida Gators in that year’s bowl game.


Crazy how nobody remembers the latter, but everybody remembers the former.
 

Irish du Nord

Well-known member
Messages
3,416
Reaction score
3,065

6. Clemson at Notre Dame, November 5
5. Notre Dame at USC, November 26
4. Alabama at Texas, September 10
3. Cincinnati at Arkansas, September 3
2. Georgia vs. Oregon in Atlanta, September 3
1. Notre Dame at Ohio State, September 3


Pretty questionable top 25 list, especially putting Cincy at Arkansas in the top 10 seems pretty egregious. They also include Baylor vs BYU and Arkansas vs BYU but not ND vs BYU... Overall a good glimpse as what's to come this fall.
Also underrating Clemson imo, do they seriously think SC will be the better team or is it due to the rivalry etc that they’re 5th
 

DONTH8

Definitely not Coach BD
Messages
1,583
Reaction score
1,667
Also underrating Clemson imo, do they seriously think SC will be the better team or is it due to the rivalry etc that they’re 5th
2 new coaches, one of which is a offensive darling who took teams to the CFP, in a major rivalry game is much more interesting a game than Clemson.
 

Rogue219

Well-known member
Messages
5,430
Reaction score
1,080
This is the first and only FCS opponent to have been scheduled. It really isn't a trend or "train" until they decide they're doing it again.

Everyone is going to get over it and move on with life. There are recruits that are must gets to who have not been offered in addition to other pressing matters that must be dealt with between now and when wheels go down from Ireland in 2023.
 

dankgesang

Troll Tide
Messages
448
Reaction score
681
The cultural value of this game is significant and should not be underestimated. It comes at an appropriate time in American history. Make no mistake. Notre Dame is a beneficiary of this move, and as a long time fan, I support it.
Better ways to do it that aren't transparently self-serving, if that's what it's about. Schedule a home and home with Grambling, someone with actual football cachet. Anyway I'm well aware I'm yelling at a cloud and that these fights are long since settled. Agree that everyone should move on with life.
 

BrownerandFry

Banned
Messages
1,141
Reaction score
198
Better ways to do it that aren't transparently self-serving, if that's what it's about. Schedule a home and home with Grambling, someone with actual football cachet. Anyway I'm well aware I'm yelling at a cloud and that these fights are long since settled. Agree that everyone should move on with life.
Do Richard Dent, Claude Humphrey and Too Tall Jones constitute Cachet?
 

dankgesang

Troll Tide
Messages
448
Reaction score
681
No, three nameable players in the history of the program do not constitute football cachet. Obviously. But fine, schedule a home and home with Tennessee state. Make it a real act of service. We all know what this is, let's not try and dress it up.
 

ACamp1900

Counting my ‘bet against ND’ winnings
Messages
48,947
Reaction score
11,226

6. Clemson at Notre Dame, November 5
5. Notre Dame at USC, November 26
4. Alabama at Texas, September 10
3. Cincinnati at Arkansas, September 3
2. Georgia vs. Oregon in Atlanta, September 3
1. Notre Dame at Ohio State, September 3


Pretty questionable top 25 list, especially putting Cincy at Arkansas in the top 10 seems pretty egregious. They also include Baylor vs BYU and Arkansas vs BYU but not ND vs BYU... Overall a good glimpse as what's to come this fall.
NoTRe dAmE plAyS CuPCakEs!!!
 

NDPhilly

Philly Torqued
Messages
16,441
Reaction score
16,721
No, three nameable players in the history of the program do not constitute football cachet. Obviously. But fine, schedule a home and home with Tennessee state. Make it a real act of service. We all know what this is, let's not try and dress it up.

We might as well have written the school a $2m check and saved them the trip and 50 point loss.

Also TSU is a public school right? At least they have government funding. A better act of charity would have been scheduling a small college like St Francis University in Loretto, PA which likely won't exist in 20 years.
 

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
idk-what-hbcu.jpg
 

Blazers46

Adjectives: wise/brilliant/handsome.
Messages
8,107
Reaction score
5,459
Curious what conference realignment, the impending doom and bankruptcy of the NCAA and other moving parts might do to scheduling FCS/HBCU teams in the future. I think it would be cool to have a spring game against a team like Tenn St.
 

Irishnuke

CFB Message Board Guy
Messages
8,238
Reaction score
3,950
I don’t love playing an FCS school but whatever, not gonna bitch and moan either. Too bad there aren’t any HBCUs in FBS we could have scheduled.
 

ulukinatme

Carr for QB 2025!
Messages
31,518
Reaction score
17,387
Big picture: it’s no big deal. I had moved on from the ”never played an FCS school” having any significance. It was more about defending ND’s schedule when they were a one loss team vying for a CFP spot vs a one loss team w/ a CCG. Other than the 2012 win over OU and the 2020 win over Clemson, ND hasn’t been able to show they can beat a current power thus validating their resume. IF they beat tOSU & Clemson next season, the TSU game will be an afterthought.

Right, any other year it probably would be a concern with a 12 game schedule and no conference championship to play for, but considering we have both Clemson, tOSU, and of course a likely improved USC next season the schedule will be fine. I'm still not crazy about scheduling FCS teams, but if we're going to be scheduling them anyway I like that they're going the HBCU route.
 

dublinirish

Everestt Gholstonson
Messages
27,326
Reaction score
13,091
Army is going back to a pure triple option offense, another reason not to schedule them in 2024..
 

phork

Raining On Your Parade
Messages
9,863
Reaction score
1,019
I am all for scheduling the easiest games possible from here on out. Never once did Michigans shitty schedule get mentioned as an anchor to their playoff hopes. Hardest games were a Penn St team whos got their name etched as the sponsor for 3rd place on the BIG East trophy and a degraded OSU team.
 

NumbersGuy0520

Well-known member
Messages
960
Reaction score
1,344
I am all for scheduling the easiest games possible from here on out. Never once did Michigans shitty schedule get mentioned as an anchor to their playoff hopes. Hardest games were a Penn St team whos got their name etched as the sponsor for 3rd place on the BIG East trophy and a degraded OSU team.
Especially true moving to a 12-team playoff.

Easy schedule + blue blood means you’re probably a 0-2 loss team and a virtual lock to make it. Hard schedule puts playoff odds in jeopardy.

If 12-team playoff were this year, we would’ve been right on the cusp at 9-3, but probably in if we had Michigans schedule.

It sounds soft, and probably is, but I’d rather the slightly easier schedule that puts us in playoffs almost every year than a more difficult one that puts us in every 2-3 years.
 

Pops Freshenmeyer

Well-known member
Messages
5,112
Reaction score
2,457
Especially true moving to a 12-team playoff.

Easy schedule + blue blood means you’re probably a 0-2 loss team and a virtual lock to make it. Hard schedule puts playoff odds in jeopardy.

If 12-team playoff were this year, we would’ve been right on the cusp at 9-3, but probably in if we had Michigans schedule.

It sounds soft, and probably is, but I’d rather the slightly easier schedule that puts us in playoffs almost every year than a more difficult one that puts us in every 2-3 years.
Yeah, I expect the expanded playoff to completely nuke OOC schedule difficulty.
 

stlnd01

Was away. Now returned.
Messages
13,386
Reaction score
10,247
Yeah, I expect the expanded playoff to completely nuke OOC schedule difficulty.
That plus expanded B1G/SEC could make it harder for us as an independent to schedule that annual marquee home-and-home game too. Why would Ohio State or A&M play us when they’ll have more tough conference games and losing one to us could knock them out of the top 12?
 
Top