The case for an 8 Team Playoff

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

just looked at UCF's future sched

2019, FCS FL A&M, @FAU, @Pitt, and Stanford. Not bad OoC.
2020, UNC, @GT, still need two more games
2021, @Louisville, needs 3 more
2022, Louisville, GT, needs 2 more
2023, need all 4 OoC
2024, GT
2025, UNC


If you look at their past scheds, there's several big and decent names (OSU, PSU, scUM, Stanford, SC, BYU, Louisville, BC, NCst, KSst, Miami, TX)

Yep, and now they'll start losing and we can finally stop hearing their complaints. Win-Win

 

[Irish YJ]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brian Kelly said he’d vote for College Football Playoff expansion to eight teams. Would give the five Power 5 conferences a bid, plus three at-large bids.</p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1073991656611987456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2018</a></blockquote>

we can all debate if 8 is good for CFB.
there's no debate though that 8 is good for ND.

 

[Irish YJ]

Yep, and now they'll start losing and we can finally stop hearing their complaints. Win-Win

But if they run the table next year? still not good enough?

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

But if they run the table next year? still not good enough?

It all depends on how that schedule looks after the year. If there are 5 undefeated teams and UCF had the weakest schedule, then no, it still wouldn't be good enough.

Or if they had the lowest margin of victory or if any of their other advanced stats didn't stack up to the others.

The good news is they'll finally have a chance at significant, in-season, victories.

 

[Irish YJ]

It all depends on how that schedule looks after the year. If there are 5 undefeated teams and UCF had the weakest schedule, then no, it still wouldn't be good enough.

Or if they had the lowest margin of victory or if any of their other advanced stats didn't stack up to the others.

The good news is they'll finally have a chance at significant, in-season, victories.

They've been victims of weather twice in the last two years (P5 cancels).
If they beat #11 LSU this year in the bowl after losing their QB, and after beating #7 Auburn last year, and run the table next year..... it would be criminal IMO to leave them out if there aren't 4 undefeated P5 teams.

 

[Irish YJ]

Nothing new here if you watched the PC

Notre Dame's Brian Kelly sees 'appetite' to expand CFP, favors 8 teams
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...xpand-college-football-playoff-favors-8-teams

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

They've been victims of weather twice in the last two years (P5 cancels).
If they beat #11 LSU this year in the bowl after losing their QB, and after beating #7 Auburn last year, and run the table next year..... it would be criminal IMO to leave them out if there aren't 4 undefeated P5 teams.

So, you believe we "owe" them next year if they are undefeated? You don't believe a one-loss Georgia or ND could deserve it more if their SOS is top 10 and UCF is in the 60s?

I hate this idea of a team deserving something because of previous years, I think that's a mistake. Each year needs to be viewed under it's own microscope.

Last year, they may have been one of the top 4 teams but we can't say that definitively. All we can say is they beat everyone put in front of them and that includes a stout Auburn team.

If they beat LSU, it tells me they were at least a top-15 team. It still doesn't tell me they deserved to be in the playoffs. I don't think LSU is legit, I think their defense is very good but their offense would be ravaged by a good defense.

 

[Irish YJ]

So, you believe we "owe" them next year if they are undefeated? You don't believe a one-loss Georgia or ND could deserve it more if their SOS is top 10 and UCF is in the 60s?

I hate this idea of a team deserving something because of previous years, I think that's a mistake. Each year needs to be viewed under it's own microscope.

Last year, they may have been one of the top 4 teams but we can't say that definitively. All we can say is they beat everyone put in front of them and that includes a stout Auburn team.

If they beat LSU, it tells me they were at least a top-15 team. It still doesn't tell me they deserved to be in the playoffs. I don't think LSU is legit, I think their defense is very good but their offense would be ravaged by a good defense.

Any playoff system is flawed that allows for undefeated teams to be left out over defeated teams. It's like the NFL allowing a minor league or a Euro division in, counting wins against those teams, but telling them it doesn't matter how well you do, you'll never be a playoff team.

If LSU isn't legit, is UGA who got creamed by LSU? And UGA per the only unbias indicator (vegas) is a top 4.
That's why I want 8.
And if you believe vegas is the least bias, we're (ND) 2+ TDish dogs vs Bama in their hypothetical lines, and we were only like 2 pt favs over UCF.

 

[wizards8507]

Any playoff system is flawed that allows for undefeated teams to be left out over defeated teams. It's like the NFL allowing a minor league or a Euro division in, counting wins against those teams, but telling them it doesn't matter how well you do, you'll never be a playoff team.

If LSU isn't legit, is UGA who got creamed by LSU? And UGA per the only unbias indicator (vegas) is a top 4.
That's why I want 8.
And if you believe vegas is the least bias, we're (ND) 2+ TDish dogs vs Bama in their hypothetical lines, and we were only like 2 pt favs over UCF.

I agree with your first paragraph, but that doesn't mean we need 8. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, UCF is 4.

 

[Irish YJ]

I agree with your first paragraph, but that doesn't mean we need 8. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, UCF is 4.

8 is good for ND, no?

 

[wizards8507]

8 is good for ND, no?

No.

It makes it easier to MAKE the playoff. It makes it mathematically twice as difficult to WIN the playoff.

Make the playoff now, 25% chance of a title. Make a playoff with 8, 12.5% chance of a title.

 

[Irish YJ]

No.

It makes it easier to MAKE the playoff. It makes it mathematically twice as difficult to WIN the playoff.

Make the playoff now, 25% chance of a title. Make a playoff with 8, 12.5% chance of a title.

you do know that the logic you just used is purely "opportunity" based on 4 vs 8 teams. an 8 team playoff doubles our chances of getting in, so it's a wash.

But as you know, odds once you get in aren't "opportunity"

Current odds...
Alabama: -225
Clemson: +300
Oklahoma: +1000
Notre Dame: +1200

And, I'd say our opportunity beating Bama for instance, is much greater the more teams they have to play ahead of us, and the less time they have to plan for us.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Any playoff system is flawed that allows for undefeated teams to be left out over defeated teams. It's like the NFL allowing a minor league or a Euro division in, counting wins against those teams, but telling them it doesn't matter how well you do, you'll never be a playoff team.

If LSU isn't legit, is UGA who got creamed by LSU? And UGA per the only unbias indicator (vegas) is a top 4.
That's why I want 8.
And if you believe vegas is the least bias, we're (ND) 2+ TDish dogs vs Bama in their hypothetical lines, and we were only like 2 pt favs over UCF.

This isn't sound logic. An undefeated team, no matter how difficult the schedule, deserves to be in the playoffs whether it has 4 or 8 teams?

UGA has proven they are legit by playing quality opponents.

You want to force the evolution of the system. Evolution takes time. If they keep winning, they'll continue building out their schedule so they can be compared adequately.

UCF isn't one of the best 4 teams this year. Their game is one of the few times I'll be rooting for the SEC. I hope LSU dismantles them so they shut the f.v.ck up.

A team with the 72nd ranked SOS hasn't earned it. I don't care if their average margin of victory is 40 pts. It gets exponentially harder to win each week when you are playing top 30 competition multiple times during a year.

 

[wizards8507]

you do know that the logic you just used is purely "opportunity" based on 4 vs 8 teams. an 8 team playoff doubles our chances of getting in, so it's a wash.

Incorrect. That would only be true if the proposed 8-team playoff were 8 at-large bids. It's looking like all the momentum would be for automatic bids for Power 5 champions. Our chances of getting in would decidedly NOT be doubled.

 

[wizards8507]

UCF isn't one of the best 4 teams this year. Their game is one of the few times I'll be rooting for the SEC. I hope LSU dismantles them so they shut the f.v.ck up.

That's a great argument to put Georgia in over us. Lots of computer models say they're better. Hell, lots of models say Michigan and Ohio State are better than us, too. There's no credible argument to be made that we deserve to be in and UCF doesn't.

A team with the 72nd ranked SOS hasn't earned it. I don't care if their average margin of victory is 40 pts. It gets exponentially harder to win each week when you are playing top 30 competition multiple times during a year.

Teams don't get to choose their SOS. Shame on UCF for scheduling an FCS program, but Alabama and Clemson do that too, so I'm not sure you can hold it against them.

 

[IrishLax]

Teams don't get to choose their SOS. Shame on UCF for scheduling an FCS program, but Alabama and Clemson do that too, so I'm not sure you can hold it against them.

Yes, you can. When 80% of your schedule is cream puff and you electively go schedule an FCS team instead of a Power 5 program that is all on you. That is completely different than playing 9-10 power conference teams with a couple cupcakes sprinkled in.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Yes, you can. When 80% of your schedule is cream puff and you electively go schedule an FCS team instead of a Power 5 program that is all on you. That is completely different than playing 9-10 power conference teams with a couple cupcakes sprinkled in.

But you're considering the big picture, others seem intent on driving a specific point.

Undefeated does not equal undefeated

 

[BobbyMac]

Incorrect. That would only be true if the proposed 8-team playoff were 8 at-large bids. It's looking like all the momentum would be for automatic bids for Power 5 champions. Our chances of getting in would decidedly NOT be doubled.

I'm not a stats guy but I'm not sure that the adjusted probability doesn't double when you consider:

Earning a spot in a 4 game playoff vs everybody

vs.

Earning 1 of 3 spots in an 8 game playoff when Bama/UGa, Clemson, OU & OSU are removed from the equation.

 

[Legacy]

An eight team playoff, teams that play their conference championship could play fifteen games and through Dec and Jan.

What impedes that playoff are the FCS games and conferences. Their better ways for the FCS teams to get the revenue - the P5 teams donate directly to their in-state FCS teams in their states they may have played or the G5 teams in their areas. More efficient. Eleven games.

The conference championships are very popular and lucrative. You have to keep those. Conference teams could have the option of tentatively schedule a twelfth game, which they can fulfill if they do not make the championship. So there's no problem for non-conference championship teams have the chance to get to six wins for bowl qualifications. An in-state FCS game if they want. Seven home games.

If they schedule a FCS team, it means nothing for qualifying for those three non-championship extra spots. That extends the season one week for the playoff teams and brings in the extra media revenue to college football and possibly attendance.

 

[wizards8507]

Yes, you can. When 80% of your schedule is cream puff and you electively go schedule an FCS team instead of a Power 5 program that is all on you. That is completely different than playing 9-10 power conference teams with a couple cupcakes sprinkled in.

Are you firmly convinced that the American is significantly worse than the ACC this year, outside of Clemson?

I'm not.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm not a stats guy but I'm not sure that the adjusted probability doesn't double when you consider:

Earning a spot in a 4 game playoff vs everybody

vs.

Earning 1 of 3 spots in an 8 game playoff when Bama/UGa, Clemson, OU & OSU are removed from the equation.

One of the three would likely be guaranteed to the highest ranked Group of 5.

And you can't lump Bama/UGA together as if they're only one slot. They could very easily grab two.

In any given season, not necessarily this one, the most likely seeds in an 8 team playoff look something like:

1. Alabama
2. Big 10
3. ACC
4. Pac 12
5. Big 12
6. Group of 5
7. SEC East team that lost to Bama in the SECCG.
8. SEC West team that lost to Bama in the regular season.

Not to mention that the Big 10 is also tremendously imbalanced, so whoever of Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State doesn't win the East will have a strong shot without even making the title game.

Also, if a team from the weaker side of the conference pulls an upset, a one-loss ND is extra fucked. Pitt wins? Pitt and Clemson are both in, and there goes another potential slot.

An eight team playoff with automatic bids for conference champions is the absolute worst case scenario for us and will probably mean the end of Independence.

 

[Irishize]

An eight team playoff, teams that play their conference championship could play fifteen games and through Dec and Jan.

What impedes that playoff are the FCS games and conferences. Their better ways for the FCS teams to get the revenue - the P5 teams donate directly to their in-state FCS teams in their states they may have played or the G5 teams in their areas. More efficient. Eleven games.

The conference championships are very popular and lucrative. You have to keep those. Conference teams could have the option of tentatively schedule a twelfth game, which they can fulfill if they do not make the championship. So there's no problem for non-conference championship teams have the chance to get to six wins for bowl qualifications. An in-state FCS game if they want. Seven home games.

If they schedule a FCS team, it means nothing for qualifying for those three non-championship extra spots. That extends the season one week for the playoff teams and brings in the extra media revenue to college football and possibly attendance.

I agree. They need to simply adopt the FCS/DII playoff model b/c it’s been proven to work & no kid is adversely affected when it comes to Final Exams & other academic pursuits.

They’ll never agree to this b/c they’re too greedy but they would need to cut regular season back to 10 games. Then eliminate FCS opponents. Like Legacy stated, if they truly feel sorry for them, stroke them a check & STFU. Or they could schedule them for their Spring Game. Playing a 63-scholarship team in mid-November is beyond insulting to any fan’s intelligence. Or...how about not EVERY institution in America is entitled to have a football program if they require subsidies from FBS programs.

No more 6-6 teams going to bowls. Instead require every 6-6 or worse school to buy each kid a PS4 & a pair of Beats by Dre along w/ a Fossil watch. They can use the money they’d end up overspending to travel their team & band to a bowl game. (This is part sarcasm b/c it would also never happen)

Quit putzing around w/ a 4-team & then an 8-team idea and go all in b/c it would just keep expanding anyway like every other post season tournament. No one wants to see a 3-5 loss team win their respective conf champ game & get into an 8-team format.

 

[Irish YJ]

Incorrect. That would only be true if the proposed 8-team playoff were 8 at-large bids. It's looking like all the momentum would be for automatic bids for Power 5 champions. Our chances of getting in would decidedly NOT be doubled.

In that situation (if they go to 5 auto bids), it depends on the year. This year, we're undefeated, and we were more or less playing for two spots (3rd and 4th spots). The CFP committee said as such saying Bama was an obvious one, and Clemson and obvious two.

So you're either competing with 5 P5 conference front runners for 4 spots, or competing with non-P5s and second place P5 hopefuls for 3 spots. An undefeated ND is a lock for 8, maybe not with spots in a year when you have 4 or 5 P5 undefeated teams, or even a one loss team like Bama or UGA. A one loss ND chances are extremely improved in an 8 team playoff.

If you can't see the benefit of 8 for ND over 4, BK has some words for you.

 

[Irish YJ]

Are you firmly convinced that the American is significantly worse than the ACC this year, outside of Clemson?

I'm not.

or the PAC

IIRC the AAC was something like 3-1 vs P5s last year in bowls, and only a one point loss away from being 4-0. They are not world beaters, but there's not a lot of separation from either the PAC or ACC (minus Clemson). And UCF gave ACC coastal champion an equal thumping as Clemson.

 

[wizards8507]

In that situation (if they go to 5 auto bids), it depends on the year. This year, we're undefeated, and we were more or less playing for two spots (3rd and 4th spots). The CFP committee said as such saying Bama was an obvious one, and Clemson and obvious two.

So you're either competing with 5 P5 conference front runners for 4 spots, or competing with non-P5s and second place P5 hopefuls for 3 spots. An undefeated ND is a lock for 8, maybe not with spots in a year when you have 4 or 5 P5 undefeated teams, or even a one loss team like Bama or UGA. A one loss ND chances are extremely improved in an 8 team playoff.

If you can't see the benefit of 8 for ND over 4, BK has some words for you.

An undefeated ND is a lock in either scenario so I agree the focus is on our best interest in a one loss situation.

I see two flaws in your argument. First, one slot is likely to go to a Group of 5, so we're competing for two at large, not three. Second, you're assuming conference front runners and conference champions are the same team. That works this year, but if things go screwy in conference championship games, you're looking at a situation where the ACC sends Pitt and Clemson.

 

[Irish YJ]

I agree. They need to simply adopt the FCS/DII playoff model b/c it’s been proven to work & no kid is adversely affected when it comes to Final Exams & other academic pursuits.

They’ll never agree to this b/c they’re too greedy but they would need to cut regular season back to 10 games. Then eliminate FCS opponents. Like Legacy stated, if they truly feel sorry for them, stroke them a check & STFU. Or they could schedule them for their Spring Game. Playing a 63-scholarship team in mid-November is beyond insulting to any fan’s intelligence. Or...how about not EVERY institution in America is entitled to have a football program if they require subsidies from FBS programs.

No more 6-6 teams going to bowls. Instead require every 6-6 or worse school to buy each kid a PS4 & a pair of Beats by Dre along w/ a Fossil watch. They can use the money they’d end up overspending to travel their team & band to a bowl game. (This is part sarcasm b/c it would also never happen)

Quit putzing around w/ a 4-team & then an 8-team idea and go all in b/c it would just keep expanding anyway like every other post season tournament. No one wants to see a 3-5 loss team win their respective conf champ game & get into an 8-team format.

I believe the sentiment is to have round one games the week following the conference championships.

I'm not sure you have to reduce games at all. But I'm perfectly fine with reducing one by eliminating all FCS games. I do like the ideal of a "scrimmage" early pre-season or spring game that doesn't count.

 

[Irish YJ]

An undefeated ND is a lock in either scenario so I agree the focus is on our best interest in a one loss situation.

I see two flaws in your argument. First, one slot is likely to go to a Group of 5, so we're competing for two at large, not three. Second, you're assuming conference front runners and conference champions are the same team. That works this year, but if things go screwy in conference championship games, you're looking at a situation where the ACC sends Pitt and Clemson.

I could give you tons of hypothetical scenarios where ND isn't a lock in a 4 game scenario. With four or more undefeated P5s, or even a one loss SEC... There are zero hypothetical scenarios in an 8 team playoff.

 

[wizards8507]

I could give you tons of hypothetical scenarios where ND isn't a lock in a 4 game scenario. With four or more undefeated P5s...

That has literally never happened.

 

[Irish YJ]

That has literally never happened.

Hasn't happened yet with all the conference changes. It will though given all the scheduling BS of FCS and byes. You can argue it will never happen, but it certainly could. And with SEC love, you might as well count a one loss Bama as a lock if someone else in the SEC is undefeated or a one loss CC.

 

[wizards8507]

Hasn't happened yet with all the conference changes. It will though given all the scheduling BS of FCS and byes. You can argue it will never happen, but it certainly could. And with SEC love, you might as well count a one loss Bama as a lock if someone else in the SEC is undefeated or a one loss CC.

I disagree. Undefeated carries a certain cachet. I have no doubt a two-loss SEC will one day get in over a one-loss team, but I don't see an undefeated power five team being left out.