Sept 24 | North Carolina

Irishdrunk

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Reading between the lines of Freeman's presser comments regarding Tobias I get "he's too good to sit and will stay on the field as soon as he stops making mental errors."
Its pretty clear that they have issues with Tobias. That discussion regarding Tobias at MF's Presser leads me to feel as though the kids isn't happy and Rees also doesn't want to play him. Meaning, Freeman is having to deal with a hard-headed kid and a hard-headed OC.

I mean, its not like Rees's veteran receivers are doing so great. Lenzy offsides?? WTF.
 

Irishdrunk

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I hope you're right, the big difference is, at least as far as App State goes, is that if you're balanced, you're going to be able to run the ball much more effectively. If Pyne doesn't start fast, UNC will load the box and we've seen that movie too many times this year already.

I don't think our D let's UNC score on us at will. If this becomes a track meet we don't stand a chance. ND must win the war in the trenches on both sides and we need to start much faster offensively. If UNC gets up early, I think we're in trouble.

It's going to be a long, stressful season boys. ND going to be in a lot of low scoring, scrappy games. But this is a quality defense, and I'm very happy to see the secondary playing as well as they have been so far this year. It was nice to see the DL finally join the party on Saturday. Going to need to feast again this weekend.
Irish Bloke - I think some of these "low scoring, scrappy games" are self-made by Rees. If he would just get some downfield passing going and take the risk of some turnovers happening then we could open up the offense a bit more.

Pyne is not a 2 star prospect. We have okay to decent receivers. There have been enough one on one matchups. With all the training in the fall, these QBs can't see obvious opportunities and make a downfield pass?? The Receivers needs to fight for the ball.

Heck even slants and shot passes can be messed up and intercepted (i.e. TB's interception in Marshall game). So why is Rees and Freeman handcuffing the offense to short, low scoring offense. Its a total turn off. This has become way more conservative since Kelly left. The talent is pretty much the same. The other difference is it is clear the QBs' confidence has been shaken - I think its the conservative play calling. Trust your talent and open the offense up. JMHO.
 

irishff1014

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“We” being ND versus the rest of the country is not. ND, previously just BK, doesn’t play freshman is a very long running misconception of a ND-centric issue. Just like off season injuries. Happens around the country.

We started a freshman CB for really no injury or poor performance reason on Saturday.

I am not questioning that. We all know the CB room is kinda like the QB room. And these freshman corners are pretty good compared to what we have been getting.

Tyree played as a freshman and so did others. But seems like we don’t get an real production until they are juniors.

Alt is a sophomore and seems to be playing pretty good. Fisher is playing but doesn’t seem to be as good.

Everyone raves about Prince and sounds like he just can’t do enough right In practice get playing time. And our LBs need some speed.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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Irish Bloke - I think some of these "low scoring, scrappy games" are self-made by Rees. If he would just get some downfield passing going and take the risk of some turnovers happening then we could open up the offense a bit more.

Pyne is not a 2 star prospect. We have okay to decent receivers. There have been enough one on one matchups. With all the training in the fall, these QBs can't see obvious opportunities and make a downfield pass?? The Receivers needs to fight for the ball.

Heck even slants and shot passes can be messed up and intercepted (i.e. TB's interception in Marshall game). So why is Rees and Freeman handcuffing the offense to short, low scoring offense. Its a total turn off. This has become way more conservative since Kelly left. The talent is pretty much the same. The other difference is it is clear the QBs' confidence has been shaken - I think its the conservative play calling. Trust your talent and open the offense up. JMHO.
I didn't mind the play calling so much on Saturday; the first quarter there were a TON of mistakes by both Pyne and the WRs, and the OL wasn't playing particularly well to start the game. I thought Rees did a good job of playing to Pyne's strengths within what Cal was willing to give us. I know from some of the articles and podcasts I listened to last week that Cal's stye of defense is mostly an "umbrella" look where they don't like to get beat over the top and will dare you to be methodical and patient all game, which is actually what Rees and Pyne showed for the most part. Killed them with short, chunk plays and moved the sticks once the offense got out of their own way after a terrible first quarter with the miscues and penalties. The two set up passes to Tyree and Estime were things of beauty, honestly.

All-in-all, I think Rees did better, still not great. I do think he was being stubborn with Buchner and wanted this offense to be ran how he wanted it to be, not how it should be to play to Buchner's strengths. Hopefully we'll see more of that moving forward, starting this weekend, because we're going to have to score some points to beat UNC.
 

irishff1014

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I'm playing devil's advocate.
But there is truth in what I said.
I agree that it is a balance that only coaches would know.
And not even they will get it right every time (or very often).

You are right too. If a freshman WR jumped offsides early in the game like Lenzy did does he get the same treatment as the upper class man?

The upper class man knows better and has experience.

The freshman knows better but doesn’t have the experience.
 

ulukinatme

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Irish Bloke - I think some of these "low scoring, scrappy games" are self-made by Rees. If he would just get some downfield passing going and take the risk of some turnovers happening then we could open up the offense a bit more.

Pyne is not a 2 star prospect. We have okay to decent receivers. There have been enough one on one matchups. With all the training in the fall, these QBs can't see obvious opportunities and make a downfield pass?? The Receivers needs to fight for the ball.

Heck even slants and shot passes can be messed up and intercepted (i.e. TB's interception in Marshall game). So why is Rees and Freeman handcuffing the offense to short, low scoring offense. Its a total turn off. This has become way more conservative since Kelly left. The talent is pretty much the same. The other difference is it is clear the QBs' confidence has been shaken - I think its the conservative play calling. Trust your talent and open the offense up. JMHO.
I certainly wouldn't say we have decent receivers, maybe "a" decent receiver. We've got Styles, an injured Colzie, a green Merriweather, and that's about it. So right now we've got one receiver we can trust. You're right though, receivers absolutely have to fight for the ball. On the TB pick 6 against Marshall it felt like Thomas could have done more to at least prevent the interception, sometimes you have to play defense as a WR. I'd like to take more deep shots, I just don't think we have the targets.

We can hit Mayer on 20 yard seam routes maybe once or twice a game. Styles isn't a burner that can take the top off a defense, but he's a good route runner that can get open rather consistently. Lenzy just isn't consistent, he just hasn't been a deep threat like people thought. Avery Davis seemed to be our occasional deep threat and he's out. Salerno and Thomas don't quite have the wheels. That's just where we are right now with the receiver room, it's not pretty. I'd like to see us get Tyree more involved. He has the speed and good hands, but we have to line him up outside so he has time to get there before pressure hits the QB.
 

Irishdrunk

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I certainly wouldn't say we have decent receivers, maybe "a" decent receiver. We've got Styles, an injured Colzie, a green Merriweather, and that's about it. So right now we've got one receiver we can trust. You're right though, receivers absolutely have to fight for the ball. On the TB pick 6 against Marshall it felt like Thomas could have done more to at least prevent the interception, sometimes you have to play defense as a WR. I'd like to take more deep shots, I just don't think we have the targets.

We can hit Mayer on 20 yard seam routes maybe once or twice a game. Styles isn't a burner that can take the top off a defense, but he's a good route runner that can get open rather consistently. Lenzy just isn't consistent, he just hasn't been a deep threat like people thought. Avery Davis seemed to be our occasional deep threat and he's out. Salerno and Thomas don't quite have the wheels. That's just where we are right now with the receiver room, it's not pretty. I'd like to see us get Tyree more involved. He has the speed and good hands, but we have to line him up outside so he has time to get there before pressure hits the QB.
Thanks Mrs. Rees. I still think the play calling is way too conservative. I think if we got a premier OC we would have a better QB Room and WR Rooms than we have now.
 

Grahambo

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Dan Orlovsky on the call this week. I’m slightly looking forward to this game.
 

tko

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Sad to feel like we're just going to get embarrassed at UNC this weekend. I have very little faith in us playing sound football. 1-3 is such an ugly record.
 

IrishLion

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Dan Orlovsky on the call this week. I’m slightly looking forward to this game.

Same. I really like Orlovsky. He's an accessible/route-tree-centric version of Mayock in how he gets into the details and relays it to the audience.

Sad to feel like we're just going to get embarrassed at UNC this weekend. I have very little faith in us playing sound football. 1-3 is such an ugly record.

UNC's offense terrifies me at first glance... but then you realize our defense has been respectable outside of allowing two long drives at bad times.

I expect the defense to make some plays and give May more trouble than he's seen yet.

And the best cure for an ailing offense is a chance to rep against a shitty defense... and Tommy has shown the ability to feast on crappy, poorly-coached defensive teams.

I think ND will be okay.
 

BleedBlueGold

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$5 on UNC -6.5 and the over.

34-27 UNC.

ND defense holds UNC's potent offense to well below their season average, but ND's offense continues to struggle to break 30.

Tuesday gut feeling. Check back on Friday.

*I reserve the right to accept an outcome where ND puts together two solid halves with continued improvement on the OL and Pyne not shitting his pants for an entire half. If so, 37-34 ND. GO IRISH!
 

Some Irish Bloke

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$5 on UNC -6.5 and the over.

34-27 UNC.

ND defense holds UNC's potent offense to well below their season average, but ND's offense continues to struggle to break 30.

Tuesday gut feeling. Check back on Friday.

*I reserve the right to accept an outcome where ND puts together two solid halves with continued improvement on the OL and Pyne not shitting his pants for an entire half. If so, 37-34 ND. GO IRISH!
Where the heck are you seeing UNC -6.5? I saw ND open as a -1.5 favorite and now it's UNC -2.0 via Draft Kings

1663694902593.png
 

Irish#1

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Same. I really like Orlovsky. He's an accessible/route-tree-centric version of Mayock in how he gets into the details and relays it to the audience.



UNC's offense terrifies me at first glance... but then you realize our defense has been respectable outside of allowing two long drives at bad times.

I expect the defense to make some plays and give May more trouble than he's seen yet.

And the best cure for an ailing offense is a chance to rep against a shitty defense... and Tommy has shown the ability to feast on crappy, poorly-coached defensive teams.

I think ND will be okay.
Agree. UNC hasn't faced a good defense and if the D-line performs like they did Saturday UNC's O-line will look like a turn style at King's Island.
 

BleedBlueGold

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Where the heck are you seeing UNC -6.5? I saw ND open as a -1.5 favorite and now it's UNC -2.0 via Draft Kings

View attachment 3051519
Sorry. I should've clarified that's a hypothetical line for me. That's my bad. On DK, that's an alternate spread. UNC -6.5 is +200 and IF I were to put money on it, I'd throw $5 bucks on a SGP: UNC -6.5, over 58 points.
 

BleedBlueGold

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UNC's defense is awful, but until ND's offense shows it on the field, I refuse to anticipate them scoring over 35 points. It's certainly possible this game. But they have to show me first.
 

BleedBlueGold

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The O/U at 58 should tell us all that Vegas doesn't trust ND's offense. UNC is averaging over 51 ppg by themselves. The expectation is that they'll struggle against a good defense like ND's, but even if they put up 34 like they did last year, ND's offense is expected to hover around 24 points in that scenario. O/U of 58 in a pick'em game is basically a race to 30, right? I'm not 100% confident our D will keep them to under 30, just as I'm not 100% confident the offense can score over 30. Which is why I picked a score of 34-27.
 

arrowryan

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The O/U at 58 should tell us all that Vegas doesn't trust ND's offense. UNC is averaging over 51 ppg by themselves. The expectation is that they'll struggle against a good defense like ND's, but even if they put up 34 like they did last year, ND's offense is expected to hover around 24 points in that scenario. O/U of 58 in a pick'em game is basically a race to 30, right? I'm not 100% confident our D will keep them to under 30, just as I'm not 100% confident the offense can score over 30. Which is why I picked a score of 34-27.
If Notre Dame can keep Ohio State to 21, they sure as hell keep UNC under 30. Doesn't mean they will though.

To answer the bolded question though. If you consider the O/U and that it is a pick em, they're predicting a final score of 30-28 (or something similar).
 

Dale

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The O/U at 58 should tell us all that Vegas doesn't trust ND's offense. UNC is averaging over 51 ppg by themselves. The expectation is that they'll struggle against a good defense like ND's, but even if they put up 34 like they did last year, ND's offense is expected to hover around 24 points in that scenario. O/U of 58 in a pick'em game is basically a race to 30, right? I'm not 100% confident our D will keep them to under 30, just as I'm not 100% confident the offense can score over 30. Which is why I picked a score of 34-27.

Not really understanding this math. The implied team totals are 30 - 29
 

ACamp1900

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I know a few different UNC alums,... one is a former running back for them. They all think they are going to completely shit stomp us,... they're giddy over it.
 

BleedBlueGold

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Not really understanding this math. The implied team totals are 30 - 29
I think UNC goes over and ND goes under.

I gave a hypothetical scenario in which UNC scores 34 (like they did against ND last year) and for the game to push or stay under the projected 58 total points, ND's offense needs to hover around 24. I think ND's defense will keep UNC to around 34 points and I think ND's offense can score more than 24, which is why I'd pick the over for this game. I'm picking a score of 34-27, UNC.
 

Dale

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I think UNC goes over and ND goes under.

I gave a hypothetical scenario in which UNC scores 34 (like they did against ND last year) and for the game to push or stay under the projected 58 total points, ND's offense needs to hover around 24. I think ND's defense will keep UNC to around 34 points and I think ND's offense can score more than 24, which is why I'd pick the over for this game. I'm picking a score of 34-27, UNC.

I get that’s you’re take I just wouldn’t agree the line says Vegas doesn’t trust NDs offense.
 

BleedBlueGold

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I get that’s you’re take I just wouldn’t agree the line says Vegas doesn’t trust NDs offense.
IMO, of these two teams, one has proven it can score points and the other has not. Therefore, the O/U is set accordingly. Otherwise, I think we'd see a much higher point total, don't you? This same game last year totaled 78 points. UNC's offense is still good, so what changed? I'd argue it's that ND's offense hasn't proven trustworthy enough to bank on them scoring over 30 points.
 

Dale

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IMO, of these two teams, one has proven it can score points and the other has not. Therefore, the O/U is set accordingly. Otherwise, I think we'd see a much higher point total, don't you? This same game last year totaled 78 points. UNC's offense is still good, so what changed? I'd argue it's that ND's offense hasn't proven trustworthy enough to bank on them scoring over 30 points.

SP+ has ND offensively ranked 32nd. Vegas isn’t directly using SP+ but uses very similar power rankings in general. I think you certainly could be correct in the over, but I just don’t really get the Vegas is telling us part. If anything, Vegas is telling us NDs offense is better than we’ve seen.

ND being successful on offense, while meaning ND scores, likely suppresses the score due to possessing the ball more than the better offense.
 

EvilleIrish

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SP+ has ND offensively ranked 32nd. Vegas isn’t directly using SP+ but uses very similar power rankings in general. I think you certainly could be correct in the over, but I just don’t really get the Vegas is telling us part. If anything, Vegas is telling us NDs offense is better than we’ve seen. ND being successful on offense while meaning ND scores likely suppresses the score due to possessing the ball more than the better offense.
You're correct. Power ratings are simply predictive and only slightly take into account past results. Case in point...USC is -6.5 against Oregon State this weekend. Based on the eye test so far you would think that number should be north of 14.
 

stpeteirish

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Recent history certainly favors ND. We've won and covered the last 3 games vs UNC including 2 in Chapel Hill. In 2017 we beat them 33-10 as 17 point favs. UNC was a total mess then so not much to go by there but in 2020 we were favored by 5 1/2 at chapel hill and beat them 31-17. Irish D handled an offense that was loaded with top skill guys. They proved to be soft up front. Last year we beat them 44-34 as 3 1/2 pt favs. D had its hands full with Sam Howell but they couldn't stop us. Maye can run some but he's no Sam Howell who could beat tacklers like a RB.

If you look at the depth charts from last year to this they have actually lost more than we have. They've also ditched their D coordinator for Gene Chizek who has been out of coaching for years. I'm not convinced they're a well coached defense based on the App St and Georgia St games. We have better players than those two teams do one would think.

So there's reason for optimism here. To me it'll come down to if ND can improve their fundamentals again this week. Our coaching staff have been dreadful so far this year but they certainly improved between week 2 a nd week 3. So I think we can win if we don't go negative on turnovers.
 

Blazers46

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Its pretty clear that they have issues with Tobias. That discussion regarding Tobias at MF's Presser leads me to feel as though the kids isn't happy and Rees also doesn't want to play him. Meaning, Freeman is having to deal with a hard-headed kid and a hard-headed OC.

I mean, its not like Rees's veteran receivers are doing so great. Lenzy offsides?? WTF.
Have a feeling even with the additions of incoming freshmen next year the WR room will be just as empty, if not more, next season. Why would he even want to stay? Why would any WR want to?
 

ab2cmiller

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Even if we hold them defensively to a respectable point total, it will still likely mean that we stop them after a couple of first downs. Our starting field position will be similar to when we played pOSU. My prediction is our average starting position will be the 15 yard line. This means that we will likely have to drive the length of the field on numerous occasions. Maybe we can do that, but color me skeptical.
 
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