Sept 21 | Georgia

[snoopdog]

It's number 3 vs number 7

This thread would have you believe it's number 3 vs number 77 FCS

 

[ACamp1900]

It's number 3 vs number 7

The entire country would have you believe it's number 3 vs number 77 FCS

I don't think it's an us problem in fairness snoop

 

[Dizzyphil]

It's number 3 vs number 7

This thread would have you believe it's number 3 vs number 77 FCS

I don't think it's an us problem in fairness snoop

^^This^^


It's an ESPN / Finebaum issue.... since the Irish should be banned from all playoff contention for the next 4 or 5 years right??


Clemson / ND - 27pts
Clemson / ALA - 28pts

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's number 3 vs number 7

This thread would have you believe it's number 3 vs number 77 FCS

As a ranking, the poll does a decent job of roughly ordering teams according to quality. But it obscures some pretty big gaps. There's not a linear decrease in quality from 1 to 2, then 2 to 3, etc. It's 'Bama = Clemson >> UGA = OU = OSU >> everyone else.

Georgia's FEI is nearly double ND's right now. So yes, while there may only be a four-integer difference between us in the poll, the gap is actually much wider than that.

 

[Dizzyphil]

As a ranking, the poll does a decent job of roughly ordering teams according to quality. But it obscures some pretty big gaps. There's not a linear decrease in quality from 1 to 2, then 2 to 3, etc. It's 'Bama = Clemson >> UGA = OU = OSU >> everyone else.

Georgia's FEI is nearly double ND's right now. So yes, while there may only be a four-integer difference between us in the poll, the gap is actually much wider than that.

Subtract Murray State (FCS) and what is it? Not being an a$$ - just curious. Or is that game included in the totals?

 

[Cali_domer]

^^This^^


It's an ESPN / Finebaum issue.... since the Irish should be banned from all playoff contention for the next 4 or 5 years right??


Clemson / ND - 27pts
Clemson / ALA - 28pts

Light sign! Moral victory express!

 

[Dizzyphil]

Light sign! Moral victory express!

Based on Finebaum's Memphis math - there was no reason for the Irish to have been playing against Clemson anyway.

 

[Sureal]

So we will only win this one by 15 points is what you are saying. Fine, I'll take it.

Better than losing by 900

What up killa?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Subtract Murray State (FCS) and what is it? Not being an a$$ - just curious. Or is that game included in the totals?

It's included. To be fair, this early in the season all the advanced metrics have a lot of preseason projection data in them. It'll get more accurate as more games are played and those projections are phased out for data from the actual games. But we're unlikely to see giant swings here unless one of the top 10 gets exposed as a total fraud.

Hopefully the model is underrating us and overrating Georgia right now. If the gap is smaller than reported, we could pull out a win with a good game plan and a little luck. But it's hard to argue that the gap doesn't exist. Georgia's just a lot better than us top to bottom.

 

[ACamp1900]

Would be interesting to take the pulse of our base here though. If you could ensure ND plays well but gets hosed on a bad call right at the end like the FSU game for example some years back,... do you take it and move forward? Is our expectations so low that some consider it?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Would be interesting to take the pulse of our base here though. If you could ensure ND plays well but gets hosed on a bad call right at the end like the FSU game for example some years back,... do you take it and move forward? Is our expectations so low that some consider it?

No way, we're past moral victories at this point.

I would much rather lose close than lose not close, of course.

 

[DONTH8]

Can anyone remember what our expectations were leading up to the game last time? I seriously can't remember.

 

[koonja]

Would be interesting to take the pulse of our base here though. If you could ensure ND plays well but gets hosed on a bad call right at the end like the FSU game for example some years back,... do you take it and move forward? Is our expectations so low that some consider it?

This is funny. IE mobbed me when I asked the same question for one of our major bowl games, I cannot remmeber which.

If we were offered to lose 30-27, I'd take it straight to the bank. Sign me up.

That said, ND is going to win this.

 

[snoopdog]

As a ranking, the poll does a decent job of roughly ordering teams according to quality. But it obscures some pretty big gaps. There's not a linear decrease in quality from 1 to 2, then 2 to 3, etc. It's 'Bama = Clemson >> UGA = OU = OSU >> everyone else.

Georgia's FEI is nearly double ND's right now. So yes, while there may only be a four-integer difference between us in the poll, the gap is actually much wider than that.

…..

 

[ACamp1900]

This is funny. IE mobbed me when I asked the same question for one of our major bowl games, I cannot remmeber which.

That's because no one likes you generally speaking...

If we were offered to lose 30-27, I'd take it straight to the bank. Sign me up.

That said, ND is going to win this.

That's because it's you I'm just asking because I assume some would actually take it. I'll take a shot and see what happens but I'm not going to attack anyone for taking a close loss either... except you I guess.

 

[calvegas04]

…..

I agree, ND shocks the world

 

[ACamp1900]

Can anyone remember what our expectations were leading up to the game last time? I seriously can't remember.

I think they were about what they have been for most big games like this, underdogs but cautiously optimistic and certainly not overwhelmingly defeatist as it has been this time around.

 

[Irish#1]

Although the Irish may seem that it has holes in the D-Line based on the two games they have played, I have re-watched both games and there was some serious rotations going on on the front line and line-backer crews. So hopefully Coach(es) has found a combination that will keep the run game to a minimum and force them to the air where the Irish DBs can take control.

My hope is the heavy rotation of unready players and the mobile quarterbacks have made ND look a lot worse than they are on run defense. If Tommy is correct and Georgia looks to run off tackle that would be doing the Irish a big favor. Bilal, for one, looks WAY more comfortable going inside/out than trying to go downhill.

Yes and BK had said after the UoL game they were moving guys in and out to see what worked best at the LB positions. IMO, the NM game was the last time to do this and firm things up. I think we'll see some substitutions at LB, but not nearly as much as the first two games.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Can anyone remember what our expectations were leading up to the game last time? I seriously can't remember.

The year before that game ND was 4-8 and Georgia was 8-5.

I don't think any outside observers thought those teams were going to be a combined 23-5 in 2017.

So that situation was bit different.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Kmet is a go - That's some good news.


https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/2019/09/20/notre-dame-georgia-friday-injury-report/

 

[Irish#1]

The stat I keep seeing is ND at 1-17 v. the AP top-5 since 2000. But the failures of Davie, Willingham and Weis aren't really relevant to this game.

Kelly's 0-4 against the AP top-5 since he's been here. But three of those losses came against 'Bama and Clemson, who no one else is remotely close to competing with either, and the fourth coming against FSU in 2014 where we would have won had we not gotten jobbed by the refs.

18 Stripes recently highlighted that Kelly's 8-7 against the Top-25 over the last 3 years, which doesn't sound great until you realize that's the 3rd best in the country during that period. Better than Georgia, OSU, etc.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[ulukinatme]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...y-michigan-wisconsin-week-4-biggest-game-more

I'll save you the click, the author is trying to make the case that Michigan/Wisconsin is the real big game this weekend and not Georgia/ND. Does this have anything to do with the fact the later is on CBS? Nah...

Also, Fuck Michigan.

 

[Irish#1]

This is funny. IE mobbed me when I asked the same question for one of our major bowl games, I cannot remmeber which.

If we were offered to lose 30-27, I'd take it straight to the bank. Sign me up.

That said, ND is going to win this.

Still drinking those blue volcanoes are whatever you called them?

 

[ND88]

No. Thats what ESPN GameDay wanted you to see and think. I was there and yes they had a good showing but It wasn't the reason we lost. The game was even. Officials were the outcome.

I was there too, man. There was red everywhere and their pride for Georgia was on full display. I never said it was the reason we lost.

 

[Irish#1]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...y-michigan-wisconsin-week-4-biggest-game-more

I'll save you the click, the author is trying to make the case that Michigan/Wisconsin is the real big game this weekend and not Georgia/ND. Does this have anything to do with the fact the later is on CBS? Nah...

Also, F@ck Michigan.

And why it kicks off at noon instead of primetime.

Yes, F@ck Michigan! I hope the Badgers chew them up.

 

[Irish YJ]

That said, ND is going to win this.

Give me some of that good stuff. I'm ready to get on board.

 

[greyhammer90]

As a ranking, the poll does a decent job of roughly ordering teams according to quality. But it obscures some pretty big gaps. There's not a linear decrease in quality from 1 to 2, then 2 to 3, etc. It's 'Bama = Clemson >> UGA = OU = OSU >> everyone else.

Georgia's FEI is nearly double ND's right now. So yes, while there may only be a four-integer difference between us in the poll, the gap is actually much wider than that.

The thing that gives me some hope is that:

ND Offense = .67
UGA Defense = .70

Pretty even. So even if our offensive quality stays consistent (by being inconsistent), the game between our offense and their defense should be competitive on paper. The thing that's causing the huge difference:

UGA Offense = 1.16
ND Defense = .42

If I had to bet on which side of the ball I expect to see a marked improvement from tomorrow in terms of effort, intensity and scheme, it's the defense. If it was reversed I'd have zero faith, because I don't think Long can be trusted to consistently put out a good coordinating product, but I think our defense has shown in the past that when they are dialed in they can raise their game significantly.

Obviously I still think the odds are highly against us, but its our shot to take.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The thing that gives me some hope is that:

ND Offense = .67
UGA Defense = .70

Pretty even. So even if our offensive quality stays consistent (by being inconsistent), the game between our offense and their defense should be competitive on paper. The thing that's causing the huge difference:

UGA Offense = 1.16
ND Defense = .42

If I had to bet on which side of the ball I expect to see a marked improvement from tomorrow in terms of effort, intensity and scheme, it's the defense. If it was reversed I'd have zero faith, because I don't think Long can be trusted to consistently put out a good coordinating product, but I think our defense has shown in the past that when they are dialed in they can raise their game significantly.

Obviously I still think the odds are highly against us, but its our shot to take.

Agreed. Kelly's teams have usually exceeded expectations and competed well in this sort of situation, and I trust Lea to keep us in the game. If Long can figure out how to hang 3-4 TDs on the Dawgs, we should be in it until the end. But it's that last part that I'm not confident about.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I think Dan Lanning will try to emulate what Clemson did on defense to try to slow down the Irish offense. Be aggressive on 1st and 2nd down by taking away the zone read early and force Book to make decisions quicker. On 3rd down have a spy on Book. Long struggled adjusting to this against Clemson. He will have to do better Saturday night.

On the flip side, the Ga defense hasn't proven to me that they can stuff the run just yet. They struggled at times last season to slow down better teams and gave up a healthy run average to these teams. Their DL hasn't proven that they are in the upper elite yet. If the Irish OL can hold their own and not allow the inside pressure to disrupt Book, I believe there will be some running room available. A three to four yard gain is a win for the Irish. But Long has to be committed to that. He will struggle with his over the top passes he loves to call a lot if he can't consistently put the Irish offense in 3rd a short situations. Running the ball is key for the Irish offense to work. The fact that they are thin there right now is one reason I believe the pundits are not giving them much chance. Time for that Irish OL and Chip Long to prove them wrong.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

The thing that gives me some hope is that:

ND Offense = .67
UGA Defense = .70

Pretty even. So even if our offensive quality stays consistent (by being inconsistent), the game between our offense and their defense should be competitive on paper. The thing that's causing the huge difference:

UGA Offense = 1.16
ND Defense = .42

If I had to bet on which side of the ball I expect to see a marked improvement from tomorrow in terms of effort, intensity and scheme, it's the defense. If it was reversed I'd have zero faith, because I don't think Long can be trusted to consistently put out a good coordinating product, but I think our defense has shown in the past that when they are dialed in they can raise their game significantly.
Obviously I still think the odds are highly against us, but its our shot to take.

I think this has been discussed recently but the stats against ND's defense have been compiled largely by RPOs and option offenses. Georgia runs more of a traditional pro-style offense against which I believe ND's defense matches up well. The elite pass rushing DE, Okwara and Kareem, should have more of an impact in a matchup like this which gives me hope. Also I believe we will stack the box at times and other times come out in nickle to keep Georgia guessing. Hopefully we also have some blitz packages, including run blitz, to unleash as well.