Sep 7 | Michigan

[dublinirish]

I have a back strain I've been dealing with.... Much pain... Sucky, sucky pain... It came out of nowhere Monday...


Michigan week

Michigan stole yo spinal fluid! /Shembo voice

 

[rocket66]

Also the fact that they lost the most prolific offensive player in their history and no one discusses that drives me crazy. I just think UM, a team coming off an 8-5 season, who has lost Denard and is without their best defensive player is getting waaaaay too much undeserved respect. I don't get why our expectations for ND in this game seem so low this year.

 

[phork]

I can't help but look back at UTL1. ND was on the verge of going up 31-7 and ending the game and then Rees mysteriously dropped a pass and the rest is history. The defense is 10x better than it was that night and we still don't have Gary Gray. 14 points, count it.

 

[WakeUpEchoes]

I am posting because this GIF is hilarious.

 

[koonja]

I can't help but look back at UTL1. ND was on the verge of going up 31-7 and ending the game and then Rees mysteriously dropped a pass and the rest is history. The defense is 10x better than it was that night and we still don't have Gary Gray. 14 points, count it.

I like it!

I re-watched the ND game again last night, and the 3rd time through I was more impressed with our DL. I thought they had a 'lazy effort' watching it live, but the more you see it, they were 1 second from serious pressure, but the young QB was playing hot potato big time.

We finally have 3 solid WRs that can go one on one if they stack the box against Rees, and if they don't stack the box, I think we will have success on their front 7. They're LBs are undersized (~230 pounds) although their DL is fast.

We'll know a lot about Rees and the season he'll have after this game.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The past 4 years, we have had the superior squad. We got beaten 3 out of 4 times. Once by refs (2009), once by a freak injury to Dayne Crist that forced Nate-freaking-Montana into the game (2010), and once by a ridiculous series of bad breaks (2011).

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/tXsxvdF481I" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Got to get over this beaten fan syndrome.

I don't see how we are definitively the better side this year. I only see a couple position groups where we have an edge, and see a couple where we don't.

Really? Which position groups does UM have us clearly outmatched? I can't think of a single one.

We could also get steamrolled by Michigan.

As Patulski noted, that's extremely unlikely. We could win comfortably, win close, or lose close. But I'd bet large sums against UM winning comfortably.

I'm with phork and NDWorld247. This turns out to be a surprisingly comfortable win for us. Rees' last two games against UM have been among his best, and Diaco effectively contained Robinson in both 2011 and 2012. We win with at least a two possession lead; mark it down.

 

[phork]

Also the fact that they lost the most prolific offensive player in their history and no one discusses that drives me crazy. I just think UM, a team coming off an 8-5 season, who has lost Denard and is without their best defensive player is getting waaaaay too much undeserved respect. I don't get why our expectations for ND in this game seem so low this year.

Don't forget that Kovacs and Ryan are gone or out for this game. 2 of their best defensive players.

 

[tussin]

I'm going to bring some optimism into this thread.

With the exception of an ND mental meltdown, there is no chance ND loses this game. They are the objectively more talented team or just as talented as Michigan at every position except for LBs and STs. Their strengths match up well with Michigan's weaknesses. Kelly didn't open up the playbook at all last week and I think the ND offense will dominate.

I also don't think there is any production gap whatsoever between Gardner and Tommy Heisman; Gardner is no world beater and has been prone to turnovers himself.

30-17 ND. Book it.

EDIT: Also want to mention that Kelly has proven to be a very improved, very good coach on the road. The Big House won't phase them.

 

[koonja]

I'm setting the W/L based on turnovers at 1.

If we only give it up once, we win. Any more than that and we're playing with serious fire and depending on the circumstances of the turnovers, we lose.

 

[Patulski]

Don't know if this has already been posted, if so apologies.

I checked outs Hoke's wins at home. Here's the list:

2011

WESTERN MICH. 34 - 10
NOTRE DAME 35 - 31
EASTERN MICH. 31 - 3
SAN DIEGO ST. 28 - 7
MINNESOTA 58 - 0
PURDUE 36 - 14
NEBRASKA 45 - 17
OHIO ST. 40 - 34

2012

AIR FORCE 31 - 25
MASSACHUSETTS 63 - 13
ILLINOIS 45 - 0
NORTHWESTERN 38 - 31 OT
IOWA 42 - 17

2013

Central Mich. W 59 - 9

Lots of cupcakes, but wins nevertheless.

Here's the losses on the road:

2011

@ Michigan St. 14 - 28
@ Iowa 16 - 24

20112

@ Alabama 14 - 41
@ Notre Dame 6 - 13
@ Nebraska 9 - 23
@ Ohio St. 21 - 26

Hoke is 3-3 in night games.
He is 2-0 in overtime games.

Bowl Games

2011
@ Virginia Tech 23 - 20 W OT

2012
SOUTH CAROLINA 28 - 33 L

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If we only give it up once, we win. Any more than that and we're playing with serious fire and depending on the circumstances of the turnovers, we lose.

Bold prediction, Jake!

"If we turn the ball over multiple times, depending on the circumstances of said turnovers, our chances of winning will decrease dramatically."

 

[koonja]

Bold prediction, Jake!

"If we turn the ball over multiple times, depending on the circumstances of said turnovers, our chances of winning will decrease dramatically."

Well some people think that IF we turn it over, we lose. I think we're that much better than Michigan that we can survive one. I know, not much, but this is what I mean lol.

 

[irishog77]

My prediction is that we win by 2 TDs.

My man!

 

[T Town Tommy]

Good grief... beat these basta*rds. I just got to spend 15 minutes with one of our UM engineers and how they had five rbs that would start at ND, how ND doesn't have one skill player that would start for UM, yada yada, yada.

Please.... beat that Wolverine as* for me.

 

[IrishLax]

Really? Which position groups does UM have us clearly outmatched? I can't think of a single one.

Their linebackers are vastly superior to ours, depending on how you want to look at Shembo. I am terrified of what might happen to our ILBs in this game. I think the "talent" at QB is definitely a huge check mark for Michigan too... although I'm a fan of what Rees can do, some matchups worry me here if Daniels isn't 100%. This game will prove whether or not he has put the turnovers behind him, but the last time he was in the Big House he had the "little hands" fumble for the ages when he could've iced the game and I reserve the right to be terrified of what might happen. I also think Michigan might have a debatebale slight edge on the OL. Lewan is better than anyone we have, and I'm still skeptical of three of our players much like how we might be skeptical of their interior OL.

I give us a BIG edge on the DL and at WR. Michigan's WRs suck something awful compared to ours but if we play zone all night to contain Gardner it really doesn't matter that they are all undersized and/or suck... they can find ways to get open. TE, DB, RB all seem to be a wash.

I also don't know what to think of Chuck Martin calling plays yet because he basically kept the whole playbook under wraps from the first half onward against Temple. He could be awesome or he could not be awesome. Just like how Gardner could be awesome at QB or could be less than awesome. LOTS of uncertainty in this game, IMO.

The scenario where we get steamrolled is bad play calling + turnovers from Tommy + our ILBs get abused by an athletic QB/power run game... we fall behind early from a couple turnovers setting up short fields, the fans get really raucous, and we're forced to play aggressive D to try to get back into the game. Michigan converts on some broken plays in the second half due to our aggressive nature and wins 42-14.

 

[Patulski]

I'm going to bring some optimism into this thread.

They are the objectively more talented team or just as talented as Michigan at every position except for LBs and STs.

I don't think UM has an edge at Linebacker or safety. I realize we use a 3-4 a lot, but I'll compare our 4-3 alignment because we use that alot as well:

At linebacker, Morgan and Gordon have tons of experience and are good, not great, but Ross was lousy last year. Carlo/Fox have tons of experience and are good, not great with Grace as a 3rd LB who is better than anybody they have as depth inside. At OLB, Councell/Smith are untested, but they don't have to be that great to match Ross imo. At Safety, Farley is better than Avery/Wilson (and I'll be surprised if Avery plays a lot) at FS. I think Gordon is better than Collingsworth/Shumate.

So, I really don't see them more talented at either position group.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Rush three, play zone coverage so the CBs and safeties can keep eyes on Gardner, and bring timely blitzes. The key is not sacking him... the key is contain pressure and timely heat to keep him off balance. Just my thoughts...

 

[irishfan]

If this were just a random game against Michigan and there was not a history of wackiness recently in this series, I'd predict ND to win by 10+. However, its just too hard to feel confident with the recent history.

 

[UmphreakDomer]

Their linebackers are vastly superior to ours, depending on how you want to look at Shembo. I am terrified of what might happen to our ILBs in this game. I think the "talent" at QB is definitely a huge check mark for Michigan too... although I'm a fan of what Rees can do, some matchups worry me here if Daniels isn't 100%. This game will prove whether or not he has put the turnovers behind him, but the last time he was in the Big House he had the "little hands" fumble for the ages when he could've iced the game and I reserve the right to be terrified of what might happen. I also think Michigan might have a debatebale slight edge on the OL. Lewan is better than anyone we have, and I'm still skeptical of three of our players much like how we might be skeptical of their interior OL.

I give us a BIG edge on the DL and at WR. Michigan's WRs suck something awful compared to ours but if we play zone all night to contain Gardner it really doesn't matter that they are all undersized and/or suck... they can find ways to get open. TE, DB, RB all seem to be a wash.

I also don't know what to think of Chuck Martin calling plays yet because he basically kept the whole playbook under wraps from the first half onward against Temple. He could be awesome or he could not be awesome. Just like how Gardner could be awesome at QB or could be less than awesome. LOTS of uncertainty in this game, IMO.

The scenario where we get steamrolled is bad play calling + turnovers from Tommy + our ILBs get abused by an athletic QB/power run game... we fall behind early from a couple turnovers setting up short fields, the fans get really raucous, and we're forced to play aggressive D to try to get back into the game. Michigan converts on some broken plays in the second half due to our aggressive nature and wins 42-14.

Player Bio: Chuck Martin - Grand Valley State Official Athletic Site

Martin is smart and good. Im not nervous about him calling the plays at all.

 

[tussin]

I don't think UM has an edge at Linebacker or safety. I realize we use a 3-4 a lot, but I'll compare our 4-3 alignment because we use that alot as well:

At linebacker, Morgan and Gordon have tons of experience and are good, not great, but Ross was lousy last year. Carlo/Fox have tons of experience and are good, not great with Grace as a 3rd LB who is better than anybody they have as depth inside. At OLB, Councell/Smith are untested, but they don't have to be they great to match Ross imo. At Safety, Farley is better than Avery/Wilson (and I'll be surprised if Avery plays a lot) at FS. I think Godon is better than Collingsworth/Shumate.

So, I really don't see them more talented at either position group.

I meant special teams (I realize that's not a position). Michigan clearly has the edge there IMO.

Regarding LBs, like Lax, I think the ND ILBs might be the weakest position of both teams. I'm afraid Carlo/Fox could get abused. I do agree with you on the OLBs, not too concerned there.

 

[GoldenIsThyFame]

If anyone wants to prank call Tate Forcier, well here you go:

Forcier family, Forcier brothers include, Jason Forcier, Chris Forcier, and Tate Forcier. Jason Graduated Stanford ’09, Chris Forcier UCLA quarterback is now at Furman, while Tate Forcier Michigan quarterback, all born and raised in San Diego C

 

[Buster Bluth]

This thread needs moar **** Michigan. Thought I'd help it out.

 

[koonja]

This thread needs moar **** Michigan. Thought I'd help it out.

Ball's in your court, Irish ladies.

 

[Ndaccountant]

 

[Ndaccountant]

Oh, and Bo is dead.

 

[ClausentoTate]

Get ready to change your tune on Tommy, he's going to have 250 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions. He'll even escape the pocket once (on four tries). Bank on it.

 

[tko]

Get ready to change your tune on Tommy, he's going to have 250 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions. He'll even escape the pocket once (on four tries). Bank on it.

Talk dirty

 

[fightingirish26]

**** MICHIGAN!!!!!

 

[rocket66]

No, seriously. **** Michigan.

 

[Gauss]

Michigan has no WR talent to speak of. Their go-to receiver is a 5'8" midget. If Gardner doesn't see him open within 3 seconds, he either chucks it downfield at random, or takes off and runs. Their top 3 running backs are either coming off a ghoulish injury, are 25 lbs overweight, or have happy feet respectively.

They put up 59 points, but a lot of that was special teams and field position. They put up a very pedestrian yardage total, which is more reflective of their offensive talent. I actually expect this game to be a defensive contest moreos than anything. I don't have the heart to bet the spread here, but I'm definetly going under 51 total points scored.