Russia Invades Ukraine

Cackalacky2.0

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Yes let’s get back to the war…. Between Russia. A right wing nationalistic autocracy, of which a vocal minority of Americans are actively supporting, and Ukraine, an adolescent democracy of significant geopolitical importance. One of these is on the best interest of America to help and one of them isn’t. I’d say that is important and not gaslighting but what the fuck ever.
 
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Johannes

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Back to the Eurasian Steppe...

I found this podcast episode had good insight into what we've seen thus far militarily and what Ukraine may have in store if Russia unhandcuffs itself. Sadly, it is not optimistic. (War on the Rocks - Interpreting the First Few Days of the Russo-Ukrainian War) Interpreting the First Few Days of the Russo-Ukrainian War - War on the Rocks

And another thread on the same topic:

Based on the increase in artillery usage today, I think the optimistic "it could happen!" vibes are going to come to an end this week.
 

phillyirish

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Seriously, get the the American politics out of here. We get it, your guy would of, or is doing the better job.

While all of us and most of the world are pulling for Ukraine, they are a corrupt ass country themselves. They are ranked 122 on the most recent corruption perception index, good to fall right in between two sub-Saharan African pillars of freedom Seirre Leone and Zambia. So before Russian Army groups started massing on their border, who’s to say any aid would of went were it needed to go.
 

Greenore

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So about that war....

Fair enough and my apologies. I was examining some of the peripheral issues that may have contributed to the situation we are in and Putin's bravado.

Carry on lads!

Cheers and Go Irish!!
 

Whiskeyjack

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Russia is the only U.S. enemy that we opted not to rebuild into a successful liberal democracy after its defeat. Japan, Germany, South Korea... all thriving. What could have been if we'd had a Marshall Plan for the Ruskies when the Iron Curtain came down in 1989?

Our economy allows us to outspend and out-innovate virtually any opponent. The gulf between our carrot ("We'll make you rich!") and our stick ("We'll bomb you back to the Stone Age!") is huge. Since Putin is a despot with nukes at his disposal, the trick is in finding a way to let him save face while immediately and measurably improving the lives of the Russian people.
 

Bishop2b5

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Well to start, Fox News has literally been arguing against Ukraine for years now. Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingrham and others have demonstrably been undermining Ukraine on air the last few weeks. This isnt even debatable.
There is also this from the AFPAC convention Paul Goasar and Green Taylor spoke at:

Far right personas in this country have been carrying water for Putin and pushing their agenda for a while now. If you dont see it you arent really paying attention.

Need I remind you all again that the GOP under Trump removed pro-ukranian stances from their platform, Trump denied Zelensky aid for dirt on Biden ( Impeachment #1), 8 US GOP Senators spent 4th of July Weekend in Russia during Trump Presidency, Rand Paul hand delivered messages to Putin from Trump, Mike Flynn has been very vocal recently, Candace Owens.... for real. Its a certainly a minority but they are very vocal and they are very visible.
Cack, you're off in SO many ways here, conflating completely different issues. Criticizing Ukraine's political corruption in the past is in no way support for Putin invading them. Finding a very, very, small number of vocal nutjobs does not a national movement make. Saying something positive about somebody doesn't mean you support all their behaviors.

You REALLY have a tendency to stretch, exaggerate, shoehorn, and fudge minor, inconsequential acts into something they're not if it supports your agenda or paints someone you don't like in a poor light, regardless of whether it's accurate at all. Please stop. You don't have to like Trump or the GOP or anyone else, but enough of the intellectually dishonest baloney.
 

RipWheeler

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Yes let’s get back to the war…. Between Russia. A right wing nationalistic autocracy, of which a vocal minority of Americans are actively supporting, and Ukraine, an adolescent democracy of significant geopolitical importance. One of these is on the best interest of America to help and one of them isn’t. I’d say that in point and not gaslighting but what the fuck ever.
If it’s so important to you, there is nothing holding you back from going there and picking up a rifle. I won’t disagree with you that there are whack jobs in the Republican Party pushing crazy narratives. But to come off as if the Democrats are the party of sanity is insanity in itself. Also everyone needs to stop listening to mainstream media in general. A little bit of research will show that Ukraine and Russia are both insanely corrupt. Neither are the “Good guy” here.

I also find it disingenuous that people on the left who generally are against war have become war hawks over this issue. Putting up Ukrainian flags on social media is a dumpster fire of virtue signaling. Again if people feel so compelled to support Ukraine then actually put your money where your mouth is. My guess is most calling for US military intervention there have never served in any capacity and never will.

If sovereignty and borders matter so much, why don’t we secure our own borders?

My hope is that all of the armchair quarterback keyboard warriors on here will shut the fuck up and let this thread die so it’s no longer at the top of the board.
 

Bishop2b5

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*queue video of Trump gargling Putin's sack in Helsinki*

Que video of a pointless post that brings nothing to the table and must have taken so much intellectual thought to come up with.
Putting on my blue-haired grammar Nazi hat and channeling my inner dshans, it's "cue" not queue or que. Queue means to get in line, stand in line, the line itself, or the order a number of things are to be done in. Que is just Spanish for "what?" Cue means a signal or to start something upon receiving that signal. So, que pasa, dudes? Queue yourselve's up in the queue to wait for the show to start and I'll give you the cue when it's time to go in. :)
 

Johannes

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Russia is the only U.S. enemy that we opted not to rebuild into a successful liberal democracy after its defeat. Japan, Germany, South Korea... all thriving. What could have been if we'd had a Marshall Plan for the Ruskies when the Iron Curtain came down in 1989?

Our economy allows us to outspend and out-innovate virtually any opponent. The gulf between our carrot ("We'll make you rich!") and our stick ("We'll bomb you back to the Stone Age!") is huge. Since Putin is a despot with nukes at his disposal, the trick is in finding a way to let him save face while immediately and measurably improving the lives of the Russian people.
At this point I think we have to wait out the Putin era. I don't see any way of letting him "save face" internally with this conflict when his stated goal is decapitating the Ukrainian government and installing a Lukashenko clone.

Your what-could-have-been points are really informative for what we can hope for in the next Kremlin regime. If internal pressure due to sanctions give rise to a Yeltsin-esque reformer (the best we could hope for, IMO), then we'll be have to hope that it sticks this time and another Putin doesn't come along to drag Russia back into the muck. A "Marshall Plan" and warm welcome back into the international community would hopefully mend some fences.

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic tonight.
 

Johannes

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Putting on my blue-haired grammar Nazi hat and channeling my inner dshans, it's "cue" not queue or que. Queue means to get in line, stand in line, or the line itself (or the order a number of things are to be done it). Que is just Spanish for "what?" Cue means a signal or to start something upon receiving that signal. So, que pasa, dudes? Queue yourselve's up in the queue to wait for the show to start and I'll give you the cue when it's time to go in. :)
Spoken like a true Dshans!
 

Bishop2b5

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Spoken like a true Dshans!
I truly miss dshans! He and I used to share PM's of grammatical and spelling disasters from across the Internet that made us twitch they were so bad. I loved his witty grammar and spelling corrections in here!
 

MacIrish75

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Damn, that 40 mile Russian military convoy outside of Kyiv looks entirely threatening. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but it seems like they are going to need a serious infusion of support and soon.
Need air/drone support stat.
 

IrishBoognish

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Need air/drone support stat.


Exactly! I dont know much... but I've played a lot of DCS and almost feel like I could fire up an A10 from cold and dark, do a circuit, and land it if that gives me credibility.

It seems like just one flight of relatively antiquated fighter bombers could wipe that line of sitting ducks out in one pass...

Whats up with that?
 

IrishLax

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Damn, that 40 mile Russian military convoy outside of Kyiv looks entirely threatening. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but it seems like they are going to need a serious infusion of support and soon.
Yeah Ukraine is toast. They had early success because of Russia’s incompetence/poor assumptions/etc. but given the proximity of Kyiv to Russia they are screwed if they didn’t get near immediate supplies + air support before Russia could remobilize. They clearly do not have the capability to hit this convoy or they would. Unless those promised planes and weapons get there ASAP they will lose the city by Wednesday.

The other option would be for NATO to intervene and pretend they’re not… like “lending” Ukraine some drones.
 

Ndaccountant

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Like Whiskey said, there is only one way out of this and that is Putin. Putin will not lose this fight, no matter what he has to do. Ukraine simply cannot match Russia like this for very long. If Nato get's involved now, it's only going to bring the fight elsewhere, which nobody wants. For better or worse, Ukraine will get left out to dry while everyone economically strangles Russia into submission. But that will take more time than what Ukraine has, so the writing is on the wall. What Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done for his country in the last few days is nothing short of amazing. But at some point, it stops being about toughness and resilience. I just hope more people don't have to die for the inevitable. But that is easy for me to say from where I am sitting.
 

BilboBaggins

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The real war is probably going to start after Russia has toppled the government. It's tough to keep a nation of 40+ million down when the people don't want to be subjugated and they just watched you kill their countrymen.

I watched some speaker at Stanford say based on the US military's math post-Iraq, the occupying force for Ukraine would need to exceed 300,000+ troops. That's expensive. The average Russian trooper doesn't even want this fight, so it's a tall order to ask them to occupy a place.

I don't know, it just doesn't seem like there is an off-ramp here for Putin. The more he goes in, the worse it could get. More so if they make Zelenskyy a martyr.
 

Johannes

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Cackalacky2.0

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peace walk of rival factions in ESO PvP zone. Lol. This is one of the most toxic places on console.422E95B9-DDA8-4D99-B241-17E96C666E25.jpeg
 

BilboBaggins

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This article analyzes Putin's state of mind including some intelligence on his recent interpersonal behavior with his inner circle.

On the one hand I'm skeptical that this info would get out to the media, but the Pentagon has been using transparency as a weapon in this conflict. Anyway, an interesting read: Frustrated Putin may order escalation of violence in Ukraine, U.S. officials say

Frustrated leader ---> more violent military ---> increased resistance ---> frustrated leader

We've seen this one before in history. I feel bad for Ukrainians for what they are about to go through.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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The real war is probably going to start after Russia has toppled the government. It's tough to keep a nation of 40+ million down when the people don't want to be subjugated and they just watched you kill their countrymen.

I watched some speaker at Stanford say based on the US military's math post-Iraq, the occupying force for Ukraine would need to exceed 300,000+ troops. That's expensive. The average Russian trooper doesn't even want this fight, so it's a tall order to ask them to occupy a place.

I don't know, it just doesn't seem like there is an off-ramp here for Putin. The more he goes in, the worse it could get. More so if they make Zelenskyy a martyr.
What do we think the EU will do with Ukraines application to join completed today? I wonder if they would even admit it under duress? How would Russia react to that? I’d have to think they would view that poorly considering they are attempting to occupy the nation.
 

Old Man Mike

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No one is coming physically to Ukraine's aid. The real level of War has already begun via the Global Economy and possibly some internal meddling to rev up the Russian people against Putin's behavior (By the way, Nikita Krushchev's daughter's commentary against Putin and pro the people has been riveting to me.) Putin MUST "win" this land. There is no political or psychological option for him. As he does so, he'll probably shortly realize what a f*ck-up he is, and who knows what he'll do then? But bringing out his nukes is a zero probability ploy. (unless he has gone completely mad.) My guess is that if he gave any such orders, the generals would not comply. And China would certainly NOT remain passive or in any sense supportive to him messing with their economic juggernaut.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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Anyone aware of the situation with Russias seat on the UNSC? Seeing a lot about how after the USSR dissolved Russia just took its seat. I don’t think it was ever formally codified, at least what I’m seeing but IDK.
 

Bishop2b5

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Anyone aware of the situation with Russias seat on the UNSC? Seeing a lot about how after the USSR dissolved Russia just took its seat. I don’t think it was ever formally codified, at least what I’m seeing but IDK.
Russia on the security council is a bad joke. It's like putting Nazi Germany or North Korea on a human rights council. Getting them off of it may be almost impossible, though.
 

Valpodoc85

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Great stuff over on the Reddit Ukraine war thread. Guy says he's been posting on yelp in big Russian cities. Gives updates on the war in a restaurant review. Genius
 
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