Russia Invades Ukraine

[drayer54]

 

[IrishLax]

 

[IrishLax]

 

[domer13]

So what are the likely outcomes here? Is it actually possible that they take Putin out?

 

[IrishLax]

So what are the likely outcomes here? Is it actually possible that they take Putin out?

I read some dude on Twitter who said historically it’s very rare for a coup like this to be successful because it’s hard to sustain. And that the traditional path is: coup fails -> authoritarian regime falters within a matter of months from actors on the inside that take advantage of the weakness.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Seems like this is what an actual coup attempt looks like.

 

[domer13]

I read some dude on Twitter who said historically it’s very rare for a coup like this to be successful because it’s hard to sustain. And that the traditional path is: coup fails -> authoritarian regime falters within a matter of months from actors on the inside that take advantage of the weakness.

Got it. So Wagner Group's public resistance destabilizes Putin's perceived grip enough that the other real movers and shakers can assert themselves. Makes sense. Is the thought that the new regime would likely also be authoritarian, or is there a chance that Russia becomes more democratic?

 

[greyhammer90]

Seems like this is what an actual coup attempt looks like.

This is what a coup with *actual military support* looks like.

What a funny time to make your weird little distinction though.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'm very interested to see what the Wagner group leader's thought process is. He either thinks he can win, or thinks he was going to be blamed for a failure and this was his last best shot.

 

[Irish#1]

This is crazy.

 

[Irish#1]

I'm very interested to see what the Wagner group leader's thought process is. He either thinks he can win, or thinks he was going to be blamed for a failure and this was his last best shot.

Remember not that long ago, he complained that they couldn’t advance because they were short of ammunition because Putin wasn’t delivering as promised.

 

[Sea Turtle]

This is what a coup with *actual military support* looks like.

What a funny time to make your weird little distinction though.

Coup is a serious word. This is the perfect time to make the distinction since.. ...an actual coup attempt is taking place.
A couple hundred drunk, shirtless rioters breaking into the Capitol to cause trouble isn't.....this. But if you want to cling to the fantasy of it being a coup that was met with "everyone, please leave the building' then be my guest.

 

[GATTACA!]

Remember not that long ago, he complained that they couldn’t advance because they were short of ammunition because Putin wasn’t delivering as promised.

It appears that he was bluffing and actually stockpiling the ammunitions. Russia is so fucked up and corrupt the Kremlin probably couldn't even tell that he was lying.

 

[greyhammer90]

Coup is a serious word. This is the perfect time to make the distinction since.. ...an actual coup attempt is taking place.
A couple hundred drunk, shirtless rioters breaking into the Capitol to cause trouble isn't.....this. But if you want to cling to the fantasy of it being a coup that was met with "everyone, please leave the building' then be my guest.

Coup isn't a "serious word", it's a word. It has a definition. A coup attempt is an attempted violent and unlawful seizure of power from a government. It's synonyms are insurrection, mutiny, revolution, insurgence.

You're doing the intellectual equivalent of saying that a poltical nutjob who shoots-up a government building but gets shot by the cops after killing a few civilians "isn't really terrorism" by pointing to September 11th.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Coup isn't a "serious word", it's a word. It has a definition. A coup attempt is an attempted violent and unlawful seizure of power from a government. It's synonyms are insurrection, mutiny, revolution, insurgence.

You're doing the intellectual equivalent of saying that a poltical nutjob who shoots-up a government building but gets shot by the cops after killing a few civilians "isn't really terrorism" by pointing to September 11th.

We can agree to disagree and that's ok. The FBI said that there was no coup. Constitutio al scholars hesitate to call it a coup and more like a domestic insurrection like the Bonus Army crisis where the U.S. army actually had to attack U.S. veterans.

But again, we differ on our views of what happened.

 

[Sea Turtle]

So apparently russia is sicking th Chechens on Wagner.

 

[greyhammer90]

We can agree to disagree and that's ok. The FBI said that there was no coup. Constitutio al scholars hesitate to call it a coup and more like a domestic insurrection like the Bonus Army crisis where the U.S. army actually had to attack U.S. veterans.

But again, we differ on our views of what happened.

Alright, don't use an unrelated thread to push your position and we won't have to disagree any further.


I honestly thought this was some 5d chess by Putin to save face and blame everything on the Defense Ministry when this all started, but this has taken a much more interesting turn.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Alright, don't use an unrelated thread to push your position and we won't have to disagree any further.


I honestly thought this was some 5d chess by Putin to save face and blame everything on the Defense Ministry when this all started, but this has taken a much more interesting turn.

Alright, don't use an unrelated thread to push your position and we won't have to disagree any further.


I honestly thought this was some 5d chess by Putin to save face and blame everything on the Defense Ministry when this all started, but this has taken a much more interesting turn.

Yeah, youre right.

There are reports that Putin got into a plane and headed to Kahzakstan but was turned away. But there is also word that is going to impose a curfew in Moscow. I guess they both could be true.

 

[calvegas04]

So apparently russia is sicking th Chechens on Wagner.

Oh no, tik tok videos on the way

 

[INLaw]

That’s my boa this morning laughing after i told him about Putin

 

[ndfanatic78]

Well I will be the first one to fully admit I didn’t think there would be a military coup in Russia. If this means there is going to be a full pull out of Ukraine I will be the first to admit that I was 100% wrong on what I thought the out come would be but man I do not know if this makes us safer or more insecure. I guess we shall see. This is crazy times for sure. Hopefully the military made a deal with NATO that if they remove Putin Russia could be brought back into the international community. Hopefully this means an end to death and destruction in Ukraine and the US will stop supporting the nazi brigades in Ukraine’s military. Peace to all and hope for a better tomorrow and that Russia’s nuclear arsenal stays secure.

 

[jprue24]

I think that Russia should just scede Rostov to Wagner, it will save so many lives.

 

[IrishLax]

Got it. So Wagner Group's public resistance destabilizes Putin's perceived grip enough that the other real movers and shakers can assert themselves. Makes sense. Is the thought that the new regime would likely also be authoritarian, or is there a chance that Russia becomes more democratic?

If I was a betting man, I would guess that the new regime will have a “strong man” but that the initial action to gain support/legitimacy would be to reverse many recent Putin missteps - withdraw from Ukraine, reestablish economic ties with Europe (re: natural resources), scale back exterior meddling and focus on domestic power consolidation. Would a real democracy be established within a decade or two? Most likely, arc of governance in the 20th and 21st century is towards democracy not autocracy.

 

[IrishLax]

Well I will be the first one to fully admit I didn’t think there would be a military coup in Russia. If this means there is going to be fu pull out of Ukraine I will be the first to admit that I was 100% wrong on what I thought the out come would be but man I do not know if this makes us safer or more insecure. I guess we shall see. This is crazy times for sure. Hopefully the military made a deal with NATO that if they remove Putin Russia could be brought into the international community. Hopefully this means an end to death and destruction in Ukraine and the US will stop supporting the nazi brigades in Ukraine’s military. Peace to all and hope for a better tomorrow and that Russias nuclear arsenal stays secure.

Agreed. Wagner is not the “good guys” and could be worse than Putin. They have done some barbaric shit in Russia’s proxy wars. But at the same time, it’s an opportunity reestablish some normalcy that has been lost with Russia over the past decade. Russia does not “need” to be outwardly expansionist and hopefully they’d realize the easiest way to consolidate power is by domestic economic improvement. It would present a deesclaation and face-saving for both NATO and Russia with new leadership… or it could end in Russia becoming a larger and more dangerous version of North Korea… but fingers crossed.

 

[drayer54]

This coup doesn’t guarantee a full withdrawal from Ukraine. It could be a more dangerous situation.

 

[jprue24]

I do not know if this makes us safer or more insecure. I guess we shall see. This is crazy times for sure. Hopefully the military made a deal with NATO that if they remove Putin Russia could be brought back into the international community. Hopefully this means an end to death and destruction in Ukraine and the US will stop supporting the nazi brigades in Ukraine’s military. Peace to all and hope for a better tomorrow and that Russia’s nuclear arsenal stays secure.

This coup doesn’t guarantee a full withdrawal from Ukraine. It could be a more dangerous situation.

IMO, Prigozhin is not an improvement. He is plenty belligerent towards the west, i.e. 2016 US election, and Ukraine. His issue is with the prosecution of the war, not the war itself.

 

[GATTACA!]

This coup doesn’t guarantee a full withdrawal from Ukraine. It could be a more dangerous situation.

Prigozhin has admonished the invasion several times. Feels like it would be weird if he gets control to continue an invasion he’s said was unjustified.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Time will tell how this all shakes out, but don't get too excited about Putin being overthrown. Yeah, it sounds good at first and he's a bad actor in every way, but it's Russia. They love their corrupt strongman rulers. It's pretty much all they know and it's what they're comfortable with... and it may be what it takes to run such a CF of a country. In other words, even if Putin gets sent packing, his replacement isn't likely to be any better.

 

[ulukinatme]

Time will tell how this all shakes out, but don't get too excited about Putin being overthrown. Yeah, it sounds good at first and he's a bad actor in every way, but it's Russia. They love their corrupt strongman rulers. It's pretty much all they know and it's what they're comfortable with... and it may be what it takes to run such a CF of a country. In other words, even if Putin gets sent packing, his replacement isn't likely to be any better.

Probably a good point. The man that ultimately kicks Putin out isn't likely to be a sweet a cuddly Teddy Ruxpin. Maybe he ends an unpopular war with Ukraine for support from the local community, but he could end up leading them down a worse path in the end.

 

[Sea Turtle]

I saw that Wagner has entered Moscow Oblast and have recalled all mercenaries from Africa and the Middle East.