Post Game Observations (BYU)...

[koonja]

FYI - we average the 17th best class per year since BK's been here according to 247sports.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

FYI - we average the 17th best class per year since BK's been here according to 247sports.

Is that removing transfers or not?

 

[kmoose]

In most of those Holtz years, Notre Dame only played 11 regular season games. It's not quite a fair comparison.

Fair enough. 10-3 is a .769 winning percentage. Holtz's winning percentage was close, but not quite, at .765. In fact, you have to go back to Parseghian (.836) to find an ND coach who posted a .769 or better. And the parity in College Football has grown exponentially, since the days of Parseghian.

As for the semantics, this is getting a bit silly. Obviously "expectations" vary based on the situation. I downgraded mine by a game after Golson got suspended, for instance. And yet we came pretty close to winning 10, despite a raft of injuries on defense.
All I'm saying is Kelly has developed the program to a level where 10 wins should be attainable more often than not. Nine is not a firing offense. But Shreveport Bowls (that we deserve, unlike this year on a technicality) and seasons that are all but over by Veterans Day should be behind us at this point.

I agree with this. But many other people are saying that this season is a disappointment, based on the expectation that we would go to a BCS bowl.

 

[IrishLion]

I agree with this. But many other people are saying that this season is a disappointment, based on the expectation that we would go to a BCS bowl.

That's something that gets lost in all of the arguing about wins/expectations/etc.

ND could lose their three toughest games every season, go to a crappy bowl and beat a bad opponent, and still finish 10-3. The record looks good, but every person on this board would get tired of "10 wins" if some of those wins weren't against the best teams on the schedule.

People want to win a big bowl game against a big opponent. It is simply unrealistic to expect that every season with the college football landscape though.

 

[Catholics_Rule]

I said that a while ago but was just being negative. Just goes to show either the coach really likes him or Max is a slow learner.

I try not to be negative towards players but I do agree.

 

[stlnd01]

Fair enough. 10-3 is a .769 winning percentage. Holtz's winning percentage was close, but not quite, at .765. In fact, you have to go back to Parseghian (.836) to find an ND coach who posted a .769 or better. And the parity in College Football has grown exponentially, since the days of Parseghian.



I agree with this. But many other people are saying that this season is a disappointment, based on the expectation that we would go to a BCS bowl.

I didn't miss a game from 1997 through 2010. I know disappointment. This isn't it.
Frustrating, yes, because with a few more breaks our way, we're 10-1 and BCS-bowl-bound. But not disappointing considering how much adversity our guys fought through. They've come a long way in mental toughness.
That's why I think Kelly's got us to a place where we can win 10 games with some regularity.

 

[kmoose]

I didn't miss a game from 1997 through 2010. I know disappointment. This isn't it.
Frustrating, yes, because with a few more breaks our way, we're 10-1 and BCS-bowl-bound. But not disappointing considering how much adversity our guys fought through. They've come a long way in mental toughness.
That's why I think Kelly's got us to a place where we can win 10 games with some regularity.

But not EVERY year.

 

[stlnd01]

But not EVERY year.

No. I expect us to be "in the hunt" for a BCS Bowl (i.e. 10 wins). Some years that'll mean 9. Maybe 8. Not 6. Obviously it's early but do you think 10 is achievable next year?

 

[N_D_Fighting_Irish]

You're a liar if you're saying you expected us to be anywhere close to 12-0 last year. Or you're crazy optimistic

Liar? Really?

Tomorrow is another day. I ALWAYS expect an undefeated season until the first loss...then I expected a one loss season until the second loss...and so on. 2007 made me question my sanity, but I endured.

 

[koonja]

Is that removing transfers or not?

Not removing transfers. Every team had transfers, so it'd be a lot of homework to move everyone around and determine final rankings. I'd guess were around 20th average after transfers because I believe nd has been hit harder by transfers than most, but idk.

 

[kmoose]

No. I expect us to be "in the hunt" for a BCS Bowl (i.e. 10 wins). Some years that'll mean 9. Maybe 8. Not 6. Obviously it's early but do you think 10 is achievable next year?

Sure, I think it's possible. But it depends on a lot:

1. Golson has to come back and be sharp, plus show improvement.

2. Someone is going to have to step up, on the O-line, and become a solid LT.

3. Who is going to be the "go to' receiver?

4. Will the Secondary and the Linebackers be improved, or will they continue to be a weakness?

5. Will Jarron Jones, et al, be able to anchor the middle of the Defensive line?

6. Will the coaches get the red zone play calling figured out?

Those are just a few of the things, off the top of my head, that could keep the Irish from winning 10 games next year. If they all come together, then next year's Irish football team could very well contend for a Championship. But we won't know until they actually take the field, and play a few games.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Not removing transfers. Every team had transfers, so it'd be a lot of homework to move everyone around and determine final rankings. I'd guess were around 20th average after transfers because I believe nd has been hit harder by transfers than most, but idk.

When you include transfers 2012 was a disaster as far as recruiting, even though a decent number of the players have panned out quite nicely. 2011 wasn't much better. This freshman class is far and away better across the board, and this year's is shaping up quite nicely. Talent wise this team is definitely on the way up IMO.

 

[IrishLax]

Sure, I think it's possible. But it depends on a lot:

1. Golson has to come back and be sharp, plus show improvement.

2. Someone is going to have to step up, on the O-line, and become a solid LT.

3. Who is going to be the "go to' receiver?

4. Will the Secondary and the Linebackers be improved, or will they continue to be a weakness?

5. Will Jarron Jones, et al, be able to anchor the middle of the Defensive line?

6. Will the coaches get the red zone play calling figured out?

Those are just a few of the things, off the top of my head, that could keep the Irish from winning 10 games next year. If they all come together, then next year's Irish football team could very well contend for a Championship. But we won't know until they actually take the field, and play a few games.

I'm not really worried about #1 and #6. Red Zone offense in a spread basically requires a mobile QB as it's very hard to punch it in with "power" football. So I assume Golson will be back and sharp with all the bowl practices plus all spring plus all fall to shake off the rust, and that will lead to a much more effective red zone O.

#3 is interesting, because the beauty of TJ Jones is that he runs good routes and has sure hands. He's not very explosive, and we have a lot of guys in the '13 class + Daniels who should be more than capable WRs. I don't know if we need a true "go to" guy.

#4 and #5 we'll have to wait and see, but I tend to believe that removing Jackson won't be a big drop off and that our safeties can only improve. Linebackers? Grace + someone if they stay healthy should be better, and Jaylon + Councell should be darn good at DOG. What about CAT?

#2 is what terrifies me. You're losing two NFL caliber players in Watt and Martin. I like our prospects, but it's hard to imagine there not being a drop off initially before the line learns how to get on the same wavelength. If you gave Golson this year's pass protection he would shred teams. Tommy has all day to throw on virtually every drop back.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Obviously it's early but do you think 10 is achievable next year?

I mean, we don't even know the schedule yet haha

 

[stlnd01]

I mean, we don't even know the schedule yet haha

True. Though it appears we'll be playing, among others, FSU, Michigan, Stanford, USC Arizona State and maybe Louisville, correct? That is pretty rugged. On the other hand, you're basically just swapping Oklahoma for FSU and Michigan State for Louisville. So, it could be worse.

Anyway: Of KMoose' six factors, I worry most about 4 and 5.
Golson will be fine. If not, we are fucked regardless of the rest. At WR and OL, turnover is part of college football and we've got enough depth that I'm confident someone will emerge. And Golson being fine coupled with our WR/TE talent and emerging tough running backs should help us punch it in in the red zone.
For a change, our defense is more likely to be the limiting factor next year. Jarrett Grace needs to come back strong and we've got no safety net at ILB. And while Farley and Collinsworth seem like fine young men they are not elite safeties. Someone's got to step up there or we're going to continue to give up too many big plays.
It would help a lot if Tuitt comes back and Ishaq and Okwara play like they're capable of. A pass rush does wonders for our coverage scheme.

 

[rocket66]

Louisville will be pretty average next year with Bridgewater gone.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I think the WR and OL groups will be flooded with talent. OL's will be okay with Harry. The talent and actualized talent level there is going through the roof.

Wide receivers is going to be like fighting the Chinese. Be prepared to take on a million. New guys that will take over James Onwualu, Corey, Torri Hunter Jr, Will Fuller, CJ, not including the freshman (14) class and DD, CB, et all. No position group has made the dynamic improvement that WR has. QB is about to, and O-line is on a steady basis. But I think the rules are going to start changing as the overall talent level goes up. Like tight end next year; Troy, Ben, do you keep Alex, with the 13's and 14's, are you kidding me, baby?

 

[BGIF]

FYI - we average the 17th best class per year since BK's been here according to 247sports.

'10 17th
'11 9th
'12 19th
'13 5th

Avg = 12.5

 

[IrishLax]

Can't even count 2010... that class wasn't Kelly's... average of his past 3 classes = 11th... but it should be lower in practicality. 2012 was a true disaster when you account for attrition.

 

[BGIF]

Can't even count 2010... that class wasn't Kelly's... average of his past 3 classes = 11th... but it should be lower in practicality. 2012 was a true disaster when you account for attrition.

Every school has attrition which was KU's transfer point.

More significantly at many other schools (SEC) are those that sign LOI's but don't enroll in September be it for academics, MLB, etc. Rivals use to post a ranking after NSD and then again in September after school started to reflect those that actually enrolled in the school. ND frequently moved up in the Enrolled Ranking as they usually had 100% and most others didn't.

The volume of recruits in a class also skews the rankings. ND usually takes a smaller size class on average. In the current class UK is ranked higher than ND due to a lot of bodies with lesser individual talent. Only 11 get to play at a time.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Louisville will be pretty average next year with Bridgewater gone.

When Charlie Strong takes the Florida job, Louisville will become horrendous.

 

[irishff1014]

When Charlie Strong takes the Florida job, Louisville will become horrendous.

Truth!!!!

 

[woolybug25]

When Teddy Bridgewater goes pro, Louisville will become horrendous.

FIFY

 

[IrishLion]

Louisville actually has a decent nucleus of players that will allow them to stay competitive against good teams regardless of what happens with Strong or Bridgewater. If Strong leaves and they make a decent hire, they'll be okay. If Bridgewater is gone and they get serviceable QB play, they will be decent, much like ND this year with the Golson/Rees conundrum.

 

[IrishLax]

Louisville actually has a decent nucleus of players that will allow them to stay competitive against good teams regardless of what happens with Strong or Bridgewater. If Strong leaves and they make a decent hire, they'll be okay. If Bridgewater is gone and they get serviceable QB play, they will be decent, much like ND this year with the Golson/Rees conundrum.

You think so? I haven't been impressed by them this year, and you have to think:
1. "next man in" behind Bridgewater will be a huge dropoff.
2. They'll have a tough time luring a coach of Strong's abilities.

But I don't really know much about their team. Have they been recruiting well? Who are some of the good players they have coming back?

 

[Bluto]

You think so? I haven't been impressed by them this year, and you have to think:
1. "next man in" behind Bridgewater will be a huge dropoff.
2. They'll have a tough time luring a coach of Strong's abilities.

But I don't really know much about their team. Have they been recruiting well? Who are some of the good players they have coming back?

I was talking with a Louisville fan on the plane to the USC game this year. He said something to the effect that even one loss this year would be a disappointment considering how weak their schedule was. He also seemed to think that losing Strong was inevitable and would be bad news for the program. With all that in mind he seemed to think that if they weren't contenders this year they might never be for the foreseeable future.

 

[IrishLion]

You think so? I haven't been impressed by them this year, and you have to think:
1. "next man in" behind Bridgewater will be a huge dropoff.
2. They'll have a tough time luring a coach of Strong's abilities.

But I don't really know much about their team. Have they been recruiting well? Who are some of the good players they have coming back?

Well they're loaded at WR and they should return five starters along the offensive line. They'll return 3 of their top 4 RBs as well, so their only offensive question should be replacing Bridgewater. I have a couple friends that are equipment managers for the U of L football team, and they swear that Will Gardner is legit and will do well at QB once Teddy leaves. I mean, of course there is going to be a dropoff when you lose a Teddy Bridgewater lol, but if Gardner is even serviceable he will be throwing to an amazing group of WRs and he'll have a decent line protecting him.

Defensively they could be hurting, as they lose their stud MLB in Preston Brown and a DE that's top 5 in sacks right now. Their secondary was supposed to be a liability coming into the season but they've actually performed well and should return everybody, but it helps that Louisville has a tremendous front 7 to take the pressure off (much like ND last season).

They've got plenty of young OL and DL to build a team around moving forward for whoever may end up coaching them, but they are basically all those "high-potential" three-star prospects. If Gardner plays decent at QB and they find a coach that has a good history with developing unheralded players, they should be okay.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

It's way too early to be predicting for next year. Our toughest opponent's QB might be in prison, we haven't finished our recruiting class, our schedule isn't complete, players still need to decide between college and the pros, we will surely have some transfers...

 

[woolybug25]

It's way too early to be predicting for next year. Our toughest opponent's QB might be in prison, we haven't finished our recruiting class, our schedule isn't complete, players still need to decide between college and the pros, we will surely have some transfers...

I thought we couldn't get out of the Arizona St game, thus killing the FSU game?

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I thought we couldn't get out of the Arizona St game, thus killing the FSU game?

If a game is killed, it will have to be a non-ACC home game to make the schedule work I believe.