Politics

Politics

  • Obama

    Votes: 4 1.1%
  • Romney

    Votes: 172 48.9%
  • Other

    Votes: 46 13.1%
  • a:3:{i:1637;a:5:{s:12:"polloptionid";i:1637;s:6:"nodeid";s:7:"2882145";s:5:"title";s:5:"Obama";s:5:"

    Votes: 130 36.9%

  • Total voters
    352

phgreek

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You dudes still aren't getting it. Obama stated in his acceptance speech that he knows that almost half the country voted against him. But he wanted them to know that he hears them, that he will work for them just as hard as the rest of the people that did vote for him.

Romney on the other hand, clearly stated that those that don't vote for him are not only lazy and dependant, but also not his problem to worry about.

It's much different.


Words, all words...from both.

...both men were pandering and reving up their base...both men said degrading and unpresidential things which were divisive and irresponsible...finding more fault in one is indication of an inability to connect with those Obama disparaged...nothing new here. If Romney wins I'm sure HIS acceptance speach will have a conciliatory nut in it for those he hurt...but will his actions as president support what he said or help to dispel it as rhetoric.

...and no I don't think Mr. Obama has done much to dispell the guns and bibles comment as being in his belief system.
 

RDU Irish

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"Elections have consequences, I won."

Bet nobody here know who said that?

phgreek - like you are saying actions speak louder than words and Obama's actions after initial election, and even mid terms were partisan and divisive. Only one way to find out if Romney would do the same thing.

Don't worry though, Obama has his eye on Jack Ryan.
 

phgreek

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PH, a chara,

I been thinking about this and talking with some really smart people. History almost doesn't apply to this situation; at least not the way most want to apply it. In our current situation, a single group within one party has been in charge all but 12 years of the last 32. They have set finacial policy. During a single 8 year run, they have implemented much of the policy that led to the crash of 2008. What makes this time unique, is that these people were never fired. In the past, the party that screwed the pooch, has either had a blood-bath, house cleansing, or so much time has elapsed that the varmits died or went senile. Look at every major economic downturn, (TR counts as a change because he was such an outsider). This time the Republicans are running the poster boy for the bad economic policy at the candidate. Coupled with the fact that MR could not find a way to communicate himself as anything less than a sexist, racist, elitist if his life depended upon it, and I don't think that you have to worry about the talking heads, conventional or historical political wisdom, this cycle.


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Here is the perfect example. Most of the negatives on this list fall under the Clinton explanation for the Republicans strategy this cycle.


Beir bua agus beannacht,

Grehar the Bogtrotter

maybe I've not said this...but I don't think anyone tunes in to much more than "how am I doing", and who is in the chair right now..... unless its an election for an open seat, ala '08people don't look to media when they have their own experiences with the man in the chair... Mr. Obama suffers from being the incumbant when it sucks...Bill Clinton's "logic" doesn't change it...Clinton was prreaching to the choir. I'm not smart enough to tap into your logic, nor am I an expert...I see this differently...we'll see how it goes.
 

RDU Irish

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Taking apart the federal budget (washingtonpost.com)

Don't have time to dig to far for a good chart on actual expenditures and collections but this covers it close enough.


Currently collecting about $1 trillion of FICA incoming and spending about $1.5 trillion on SS, Medicaid and Medicare. Even putting 4 million back to work at $50K/year salaries might be lucky to increase FICA collections $30 billion and probably reduce expenditures a little bit. Nowhere close to closing a half trillion gap in funding versus spending.

Not going to get better any time soon with boomers hitting retirement age as we type. That will blow through the $5 trillion "trust fund" pretty quick. Can someone educate me on Obama's plan to fix this? Or is borrowing to oblivion a perfectly acceptable option?

Personally, it is strange they just don't move Social Security retirement ages back already. People use to spend less than 5% of their life collecting SS and now they spend over 20% on average. Shave two months off eligiblity for every year under 60 so that a 12 year old today will have to wait 8 years longer for early, full or late retirement (70, 75 and 78). Plenty of time for everyone to adjust.
 
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Bogtrotter07

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72% of wealth controlled by the top 5%. $300K or so is the breakpoint for 1% income versus an Amecan average of $50K. Not sure if they are breaking that down per American or per household. Either way it seems the 1% earn about 14% of all wages (51K times 100 divided by 717K) yet pay 35% of all income taxes.


I will be the first to admit that ignoring FICA as a tax is disingenuous. FICA collections are on par with income tax collections which would almost cut in half the percentage of revenue collected from the 1% (35% on income is probably more like 20% overall). Still, paying 20% of taxes for 14% of the income doesn't seem to me like either side is playing the gimp roll here.

Note lumping of capital gains and dividends equally with productive wages conflates the argument dramatically.

DRINK

What are you talking about? It doesn't matter if you are talking about income, or wealth (which is even worse). The top (whatever) pays disproportionately less than any other group.
 

Mr. Larson

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72% of wealth controlled by the top 5%. $300K or so is the breakpoint for 1% income versus an Amecan average of $50K. Not sure if they are breaking that down per American or per household. Either way it seems the 1% earn about 14% of all wages (51K times 100 divided by 717K) yet pay 35% of all income taxes.


I will be the first to admit that ignoring FICA as a tax is disingenuous. FICA collections are on par with income tax collections which would almost cut in half the percentage of revenue collected from the 1% (35% on income is probably more like 20% overall). Still, paying 20% of taxes for 14% of the income doesn't seem to me like either side is playing the gimp roll here.

Note lumping of capital gains and dividends equally with productive wages conflates the argument dramatically.

DRINK

HAHAHA- did you just make this thread a "conflation" drinking game?

As long as people are reading up my job here is done. Can't ask for much more than that when, to throw a number out there like, 48% of the people on one side aren't going to see eye-to-eye with the other 47% anytime in the near future. We are unfortunatley living in a divided county, with two sides of people that really aren't that different being connviced that they polar opposites and engaged in a Kenny Powers-esque "I'm not going to stop yelling 'cause that would mean I lost the fight" dialogue. Step one to ending that is getting informed. End Chicken F*cker rant.

images
 

RDU Irish

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What are you talking about? It doesn't matter if you are talking about income, or wealth (which is even worse). The top (whatever) pays disproportionately less than any other group.

Mathematics must not be your strong suit. 35% is more than 14%. 20% is also more than 14%.


If you really hate math, then you'll love this rationale for allocating 25% of total tax revenue to the top 1%:
Credit corporations (owned by wealthy) full credit for their half of FICA then you can say 29% of Federal revenues are credited to companies (9% corporate income tax + 20% FICA). Since 1% own 43% of wealth, shouldn't they get "credit" for paying 43% of corporate taxes? So 12.5% from corporate plus 12.5% of the other FICA+Income taxes would make 25% of total government revenue attributable to the 1%. (42% income tax + 20% remaining FICA = 62% times a conservative 20% share of said taxes = 12.4% of total government revenue).
 

connor_in

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Since nobody seems to be hanging anyones mind…I have a question on the "horserace" itself. Why do you think so many polls are using the sample splits they are? It seems many are using party splits in many cases greater than the recorded split from 2008. Why is this? I really am trying to understand this. I would think that the enthusiasm of D's in 2008 would have been higher than now and the enthusiasm now for R's seems to be way higher than 2008.

Also...who's polls do you tend to trust more?

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2
 

autry_denson

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Since nobody seems to be hanging anyones mind…I have a question on the "horserace" itself. Why do you think so many polls are using the sample splits they are? It seems many are using party splits in many cases greater than the recorded split from 2008. Why is this? I really am trying to understand this. I would think that the enthusiasm of D's in 2008 would have been higher than now and the enthusiasm now for R's seems to be way higher than 2008.

Also...who's polls do you tend to trust more?

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

I follow Nate Silver's 538 blog. That's it. He has by far the most rigorous interpretations of the multiple polls that are put out each week.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
 

phgreek

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I follow Nate Silver's 538 blog. That's it. He has by far the most rigorous interpretations of the multiple polls that are put out each week.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

I've read some of his stuff...but honestly, I want to know how each poll is constructed, and also the makeup of the stats...he seems to do a nice job assessing polls as a whole if you take them at face value...is there an area where he digs into the individual polls, and the sample makeups, and the justifications for the adjustments each employs???
 

Rhode Irish

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I also like RealClearPolitics. The Poll of Polls is generally pretty darn close to the actual results.

RCP is a great aggregator, and their RCP Average poll is one of the most cited polls among politicos. But they are really doing a little bit of a different function than Nate Silver, who is a math guy and does his own analytics. I read both daily, but for different purposes.
 

BobD

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I can't believe Fox News hasn't mentioned our poll!
 

jason_h537

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Since nobody seems to be hanging anyones mind…I have a question on the "horserace" itself. Why do you think so many polls are using the sample splits they are? It seems many are using party splits in many cases greater than the recorded split from 2008. Why is this? I really am trying to understand this. I would think that the enthusiasm of D's in 2008 would have been higher than now and the enthusiasm now for R's seems to be way higher than 2008.

Also...who's polls do you tend to trust more?

I don't think sample split polling is being used more than before but the reason I believe it is used is to give better understanding of why people are voting (or plan to vote) the way they do.

As for polls I look at several because each has it's flaws and biases. I usually go to Real Clear Politics RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls because they gather all the polls into one convenient place. Also, as bad as Romney has looked and as flawed as his campign has been, there are still 3 debates, the October jobs report, and any number of things that can happen. National polls do not really mean much because it will come down to Ohio and Florida for Romney. Obama can win without those states, there is no way Romney wins if he loses even one of those two.
 
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Bogtrotter07

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Check daily show (Chaos on Bull Shiit Mountain.)

To funny. Plus the Democrat that Jason Jones got to point his finger at the Republican finger pointing, and then he tried to get that guy to stop, (pointing his finger). That may have been the funniest spontaneous thing I have seen in a long time.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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I don't think sample split polling is being used more than before but the reason I believe it is used is to give better understanding of why people are voting (or plan to vote) the way they do.

As for polls I look at several because each has it's flaws and biases. I usually go to Real Clear Politics RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls because they gather all the polls into one convenient place. Also, as bad as Romney has looked and as flawed as his campign has been, there are still 3 debates, the October jobs report, and any number of things that can happen. National polls do not really mean much because it will come down to Ohio and Florida for Romney. Obama can win without those states, there is no way Romney wins if he loses even one of those two.

Really solid site.
 

IrishInFl

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Here's the current composite poll map from electoral-vote.com

Sep20.png


The only state it looks like a lock the President Obama will lose is Indiana (which was a complete coup to get in 2008). There's still a lot of time left, and Romney may still be looking to turn it around, but it's not looking good.

In even worse news for the GOP, the Democratic Party looks like it may maintain the senate, when it looked like a lock that the GOP would gain control.

ElectoralVote
 

IrishMoore1

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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/d6fUgISSkq8?list=UU1yBKRuGpC1tSM73A0ZjYjQ&hl=en_US" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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Mitt's campaign is a disaster. Everything that comes out of his mouth is later reversed by his staff. He's still trying to be on all sides of all issues. I can't wait for the debates.
 

Irish Houstonian

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If you can, sign up for your Obama Phone:

Obama Phone —

Apparently everyone in Cleveland's already got one.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tpAOwJvTOio" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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