Playoff Picture

[phillyirish]

This isn’t just a thread on our Playoff outlook, obviously we control our destiny, but the field as a whole.

Here’s the latest AP poll:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...-no-1-notre-dame-climbs-and-clemson-falls?amp

Top 4:
1 Alabama (59)
2 Notre Dame (2)
3 Ohio State (1)
4 Clemson

After that you have a couple of SEC teams in #5 Texas A&M and 6 Florida. A&M holds a win over Florida, but already lost to Bama in the SEC west so has little chance of making the SEC title game. Florida has a pretty easy stretch to get there, with their toughest game next week against Arkansas, followed by Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. A&M has Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and ends at Auburn. If Florida does win out and beat Bama, things could get real messy with 3 one loss SEC teams.

After these two, you got #7 Cincinnati and #8 BYU. Unfortunately, unless everyone else has 2 losses I don’t think these teams have a strong enough schedule to make the top 4.

#9 Miami is the third ACC team in the top 10. They got throttled by Clemson and probably aren’t in contention unless they somehow sneak in and win the ACC Championship game.

#10 Indiana they play at OSU and Wisconsin, so they will be likely to fall off.

#11 Oregon plays absolutely no one. I don’t think finishing as 7-0 conference champion gets them in.

Last wild card is #13 Wisconsin. They are down to only 6 games this year, they looked good and all their games are winnable. They would likely get in at 7-0 with wins over Indiana and a conference championship over OSU.

From what I‘ve been reading, the sentiment is that with Clemson and ND, the ACC has a good shot of getting two teams in with a close Clemson victory in the ACC championship. Obviously, we want to beat them again to keep them out. But how iconic would a potential 3 game trilogy be if we played them again in the playoffs?

Going to be real weird and unfair comparing teams who play only 7 games with those who play 12. Imo a two loss 12 games season should be comparable to a one loss 7 game season. And a one loss 7 game team shouldn’t be ahead of an undefeated Cinci or BYU.

 

[GATTACA!]

Who the fuck voted for OSU? What a complete crock of shit. They're 3-0 with wins over 0-2 Nebraska, 0-3 PSU, and 1-2 Rutgers.

 

[NorthDakota]

Who the fuck voted for OSU? What a complete crock of shit. They're 3-0 with wins over 0-2 Nebraska, 0-3 PSU, and 1-2 Rutgers.

It really makes zero sense

 

[BabyIrish]

Who the fuck voted for OSU? What a complete crock of shit. They're 3-0 with wins over 0-2 Nebraska, 0-3 PSU, and 1-2 Rutgers.

If we were 3-0 with that resume we would be #6 if we were lucky

 

[calvegas04]

I think byu should be ahead of cincy and the 1 lose sec schools

 

[BabyIrish]

This isn’t just a thread on our Playoff outlook, obviously we control our destiny, but the field as a whole.

Here’s the latest AP poll:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...-no-1-notre-dame-climbs-and-clemson-falls?amp

Top 4:
1 Alabama (59)
2 Notre Dame (2)
3 Ohio State (1)
4 Clemson

After that you have a couple of SEC teams in #5 Texas A&M and 6 Florida. A&M holds a win over Florida, but doesn’t not play Bama in the SEC west so has little chance of making the SEC title game. Florida has a pretty easy stretch to get there, with their toughest game next week against Arkansas, followed by Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. A&M has Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and ends at Auburn. If Florida does win out and beat Bama, things could get real messy with 3 one loss SEC teams.

A&M’s loss is to Bama correct?

 

[BobbyMac]

My Top 7

Bama
OSU
Clemson
ND
FL
A&M
Ore

I don't see anything changing the Top 4 unless FL beats Bama in the SEC CG.

**And a LOT of covid based weirdness would have to happen for the Ducks to get consideration from me.

 

[GATTACA!]

My Top 7

Bama
OSU
Clemson
ND
FL
A&M
Ore

I don't see anything changing the Top 4 unless FL beats Bama in the SEC CG.

**And a LOT of covid based weirdness would have to happen for the Ducks to get consideration from me.

You're on crack if you think OSU deserves to be ahead of us right now.

 

[phillyirish]

A&M’s loss is to Bama correct?

Yea it is. My bad I missed that. Fixed it.

 

[BobbyMac]

You're on crack if you think OSU deserves to be ahead of us right now.

These are based on who ARE the best teams in regards to full strength at the end of the season, not who has earned the highest ranking at this time. If that were the case, ND would be #1 for beating #1.

 

[phillyirish]

Edit. Disregard I was off.

 

[zelezo vlk]

How badly would the ACC Championship need to go for ND to drop out of the top 4? Who else is gonna have a better win than the Irish?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I was curious as to how they would handle all the new teams showing up after the ACC and SEC teams were 6 games deep. My suspicion was confirmed after OSU's first game when they were immediately placed at #3. that is where they were in the pre-season polling.

TBF though our record was 6-0 against opponents with a sum total 10-24 record prior to Clemson game. Seems pollsters are relying on eyeball test.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

How badly would the ACC Championship need to go for ND to drop out of the top 4? Who else is gonna have a better win than the Irish?

Has any team ever lost in a conference championship game and gotten into the playoff?

I realize things are different this year. But... if Cincinnati is housing everybody on their schedule like they did through the first half of the season they should get in over a Notre Dame team who falls to Clemson in the rematch.

 

[notredomer23]

The ideal scenario is this for ND, Clemson, and the ACC:

-ND wins out
-Miami wins out
-Clemson wins out, but a game gets canceled because of COVID(whether their fault or an opponent is irrelevant).
-Tie breakers for the ACC are based upon win percentage
-ND beats Miami in the ACC championship
-ND makes it as the 1 seed, Clemson as the 2 or 3
-ND-Clemson meet in the final.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

The ideal scenario is this for ND, Clemson, and the ACC:

-ND wins out
-Miami wins out
-Clemson wins out, but a game gets canceled because of COVID(whether their fault or an opponent is irrelevant).
-Tie breakers for the ACC are based upon win percentage
-ND beats Miami in the ACC championship
-ND makes it as the 1 seed, Clemson as the 2 or 3
-ND-Clemson meet in the final.

Oh, shit, I hadn't thought of that possibility.

The pressure on the ACC to bend over backwards for Clemson would be immense.

 

[zelezo vlk]

The ideal scenario is this for ND, Clemson, and the ACC:

-ND wins out
-Miami wins out
-Clemson wins out, but a game gets canceled because of COVID(whether their fault or an opponent is irrelevant).
-Tie breakers for the ACC are based upon win percentage
-ND beats Miami in the ACC championship
-ND makes it as the 1 seed, Clemson as the 2 or 3
-ND-Clemson meet in the final.

It would be so nice to absolutely boat race Miami in the ACC Championship game. NGL, that would be so cathartic to the point where I want this scenario to play out exactly as you said.

 

[arahop]

I believe that if we win out regular season and play Clemson with Lawrence in the ACC Title game and lose within 10 points, I think ND has a really good chance of still making the playoffs

 

[notredomer23]

It would be so nice to absolutely boat race Miami in the ACC Championship game. NGL, that would be so cathartic to the point where I want this scenario to play out exactly as you said.

The only way to complete the revenge tour after beating Miami would be having a semifinal match up with Bama.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

The ideal scenario is this for ND, Clemson, and the ACC:

-ND wins out
-Miami wins out
-Clemson wins out, but a game gets canceled because of COVID(whether their fault or an opponent is irrelevant).
-Tie breakers for the ACC are based upon win percentage
-ND beats Miami in the ACC championship
-ND makes it as the 1 seed, Clemson as the 2 or 3
-ND-Clemson meet in the final.

Is that the first tie breaker for inclusion into the ACC championship game? I’m asking as I have not looked it up. I would think the first tie breaker would be head to head and then the second would be win percentage. If that was the case and Clemson wins out they go in over Miami.


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[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Is that the first tie breaker for inclusion into the ACC championship game? I’m asking as I have not looked it up. I would think the first tie breaker would be head to head and then the second would be win percentage. If that was the case and Clemson wins out they go in over Miami.


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Dang, you're right. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

https://theacc.com/sports/2020/9/23/FB_0923200510.aspx

 

[notredomer23]

Is that the first tie breaker for inclusion into the ACC championship game? I’m asking as I have not looked it up. I would think the first tie breaker would be head to head and then the second would be win percentage. If that was the case and Clemson wins out they go in over Miami.


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The ACC Champion will be decided by a game between the two postseason eligible teams with the highest percentage of wins during all regular season conference competition.

https://theacc.com/sports/2020/9/23/FB_0923200510.aspx

I think the tie breaker rules only take effect if they have same winning percentage

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Is that the first tie breaker for inclusion into the ACC championship game? I’m asking as I have not looked it up. I would think the first tie breaker would be head to head and then the second would be win percentage. If that was the case and Clemson wins out they go in over Miami.


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I just looked it up and the first tiebreaker is head to head. Which Clemson has over Miami.


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[notredomer23]

I just looked it up and the first tiebreaker is head to head. Which Clemson has over Miami.


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My scenario is obviously bunk if that is accurate, but Clemson and Miami are not tied if Clemson plays one less game.

 

[nsisk157]

Who the fuck voted for OSU? What a complete crock of shit. They're 3-0 with wins over 0-2 Nebraska, 0-3 PSU, and 1-2 Rutgers.

Agreed. But the "eye test" and the fact that they are perennially in the mix and a natty in hand helps.

 

[BobbyMac]

It would be so nice to absolutely boat race Miami in the ACC Championship game. NGL, that would be so cathartic to the point where I want this scenario to play out exactly as you said.

I don't care how it happens, this would make my life. Miami still sits up top with teams I hate with MI, OSU and good FSU teams. The difference between Miami and FSU is, I still hate Miami when they are 2-10. I guess throw dominant SC teams on there too. But it's odd that I find myself rooting for SC once they've lost 2 games. Can't have them bums messing up ND's SOS.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Here is the preamble:

However, for any team to be eligible for the ACC Football Championship Game, or to be considered in a tiebreaker, such team must have played within one (1) total conference game of the average number of conference games played by all conference teams (rounding up/down at .5) during the 2020 season. For example, if the average number of conference games played in the 2020 season is 9.25 (value of nine (9) when rounded down), a team would be eligible to participate in the ACC Football Championship Game, or be considered in a tiebreaker, if that team played eight (8) or more conference games. Furthermore, in the event there is an unequal total number of conference games played among teams tied in the loss column, head-to-head results will take precedence over win-percentage.

If teams remain tied, existing procedures will be applied to determine the ACC Football Championship Game representative(s). Overall conference standings will be calculated on a percentage basis, using the ten conference games which are part of the schedule. If teams are tied for the best win percentage or second best win percentage in its conference games then, in order to determine the Championship Game representative, the procedures listed below will be followed.

If I am reading this correctly:

1) Win percentage determines standings.
2) BUT teams tied in the loss column, but with unequal numbers of conference games, will use head-to-head rather than win percentage.

 

[notredomer23]

Here is the preamble:



If I am reading this correctly:

1) Win percentage determines standings.
2) BUT teams tied in the loss column, but with unequal numbers of conference games, will use head-to-head rather than win percentage.

The damned fine print got me.

Would have been nice

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

If it makes you feel better, I am a lawyer

 

[IHateMarkMay]

How badly would the ACC Championship need to go for ND to drop out of the top 4? Who else is gonna have a better win than the Irish?

I also think it depends on what else happens in other conferences. One conference is getting two teams in (Big 12 is out, I doubt Oregon can do enough to make a claim). If OSU and Bama win out, and we lose to Clemson by 10 or less, I like our chances (Florida is a two loss SEC C loser, Wisconsin might be in the BigC game, but will have played 6 games or so).

The issue might be if Wisconsin or Florida wins out. You're looking at undefeated Wisconsin, one loss and SEC Champ Florida for sure. Clemson will almost undoubtedly get in as ACC champ. Then you pick one of Alabama, Notre Dame, and OSU. I know you can point at OSU not playing anybody, but I think the committee leaves ND out in that situation.