Path to the CFP?

[phork]

With our luck we won’t make the playoffs and get a 2-loss Bama.

Bama will go to the Sugar Bowl vs OkST or OU.

And someone said there are endless scenarios where ND gets in. There really isn't. ND has to win with style, again. OkSt and OU need a second L (More OkSt than OU) and Alabama/Cincy has to lose. Assuming OSU takes out UM.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

With our luck we won’t make the playoffs and get a 2-loss Bama.

The top SEC who is not in the CFP goes to the Sugar Bowl. I figure Georgia is already a lock for the CFP so in order to be an at large Bama would have to fall behind Ole Miss.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Speaking of, Notre Dame vs. Ole Miss is a bowl matchup I could get behind.

 

[NDdomer2]

I updated what I said the other day, no chance Bama gets in now since they're slated at #3, even if they lose 34-31. They lose and they are fully out, regardless of circumstances. It's not just OSU crushing but Bama looking very so-so against Arkansas too.

espn seems to disagree: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...cincinnati-stay-top-four-how-alabama-drop-out

3. Alabama


Remaining schedule: Saturday at Auburn, Dec. 4 vs. Georgia in the SEC championship

How they get in: Win the SEC. The Tide have already clinched a spot in the conference championship game, so even if they lose to Auburn, they can still win the SEC. A two-loss Tide team that beats the No. 1 team in the country to win the league is in. A two-loss Alabama that doesn't win the SEC is a great debate. Alabama would have to lose a close game to Georgia in this scenario. The committee would have to deem Alabama "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country, and it would be measured in exactly the same way as one-loss Notre Dame, which also wouldn't have a conference championship.

Why they could be left out: A loss to Auburn on Saturday could do it. If the Tide don't beat Auburn, they will absolutely have to win the SEC to finish in the top four.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Honestly I would rather us not make the playoff, Give me a bowl game against PITT, WAKE, or Michigan State. This team would get beat like a drum against Georgia and Ohio State. Part of the reason why we have looked so good lately is because we've been playing teams that aren't that good. Yes we spanked Virginia but if their QB plays its most likely a different game.

Hate to break it to you, but if you ever want to win a NC, you better get used to the matchups against Bama, Georgia, OSU, Clemsons of the world.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I still think there is no way that a 2 loss Alabama gets in over any one loss ND or P5 conference champion.

 

[dad4aa]

A few weeks ago we needed a lot of chaos to possibly make the CFP. Now, IMO, we are down to needing just two losses. OSU or Michigan (most likely scUM) will drop below us after this weekend. We only need Alabama OR Cincy to lose and we need Ok St to lose so they do not jump us. We move to #5 next week after OSU blows out scUM and then we move to #4 if we get the two other losses. It's not a long shot for us to make the CFP anymore.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Bama will go to the Sugar Bowl vs OkST or OU.

And someone said there are endless scenarios where ND gets in. There really isn't. ND has to win with style, again. OkSt and OU need a second L (More OkSt than OU) and Alabama/Cincy has to lose. Assuming OSU takes out UM.

You're right about the losses ahead of ND. "Endless" wasn't meant to be taken literally, but a lot of people are acting like it's impossible for ND to get in and I was trying to point out that there are a lot of tough games ahead and anything can happen.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

A few weeks ago we needed a lot of chaos to possibly make the CFP. Now, IMO, we are down to needing just two losses. OSU or Michigan (most likely scUM) will drop below us after this weekend. We only need Alabama OR Cincy to lose and we need Ok St to lose so they do not jump us. We move to #5 next week after OSU blows out scUM and then we move to #4 if we get the two other losses. It's not a long shot for us to make the CFP anymore.

Here's a potential problem. If Ok State wins, it's possible they leap frog ND in the rankings next week. Say OSU wins, you're looking at Georgia, OSU, Bama, Cincy, Ok State, ND. You still need two of OSU, Bama, Cincy, Ok State to lose in CC week. Definitely possible.

 

[Dizzyphil]

This standing issue IMO - Let's say the stars align after this weekend and all goes to plan and next Tuesday the Irish 'SIT' in the 4th spot in the BCS standings.

Then the Irish 'SIT' in the 4th spot while all these other teams play in Conference Championship games. Then get fooked......

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

This standing issue IMO - Let's say the stars align after this weekend and all goes to plan and next Tuesday the Irish 'SIT' in the 4th spot in the BCS standings.

Then the Irish 'SIT' in the 4th spot while all these other teams play in Conference Championship games. Then get fooked......

I was just about to post that concern but got to thinking. has that actually happened before?

 

[MacIrish75]

Alabama still has to navigate the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare. The way the Tide have been playing lately, Auburn could reasonably play spoiler here with their rushing attack. If Finley can at least prove serviceable at QB, War Eagle has more than a chance to pull an upset.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I was just about to post that concern but got to thinking. has that actually happened before?

2014 TCU was #3 going into the final week. Big12 had no Conference Championship, but had laid out their schedule so that all teams were playing that final week. TCU killed Iowa St. 55-3 only to have 3 teams leapfrog them in the final rankings. Florida St. and Ohio State played in conference championships while fellow Big 12 team Baylor leapfrogged them by beating Kansas St. who was #9 at the time.

TCU was actually playing that final week and killed their opponent. ND will be watching from the sidelines.

 

[AKRowdy]

Ideally a combination of loses and Cinci remaining undefeated, puts them at 1 and then us at 4. Rematch that I want and we’d win handedly with how the team is playing right now.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Ideally a combination of loses and Cinci remaining undefeated, puts them at 1 and then us at 4. Rematch that I want and we’d win handedly with how the team is playing right now.

There is nothing more I would like than to see cincy again.
The realistic situation tho they would never be 1. No chance there. Unless Georgia and bama lose this week and then Georgia loses in SECC. And Ohio st would need to lose Big ten championship game. Definitely won’t happen

I’m sick of the narrative of wanting to go to a NY6 bowl over the playoffs. Only way to win a championship is to get in the playoffs. You have 0% chance to do that if you go to NY6 bowl. We would have 5% to beat Georgia but last time I checked 5% was better than 0%. Like Bleedbluegold said earlier the NY6 bowl is a lose lose situation. We won’t gain anything from beating a ACC champ other than we stop the losing streak of a major
bowl. But is the media and other outlets going to be impressed that we bet a ACC team that beat up on a weak ACC conference this year? No

Would we get crap for getting destroyed by Georgia? Ya absolutely we will but how many schools can say they made the playoffs 3out of the last 4 years? 4 schools?

And if ppl remember correctly the last two times we went to playoffs we lost to the national champion and in the national championship game they beat the team by more than they did us in semis. So every year we have made it we are playing the best team in the country and statistically those teams had some of the best offenses ever in college football.

Go to Playoffs end of story

 

[RDU Irish]

2014 TCU was #3 going into the final week. Big12 had no Conference Championship, but had laid out their schedule so that all teams were playing that final week. TCU killed Iowa St. 55-3 only to have 3 teams leapfrog them in the final rankings. Florida St. and Ohio State played in conference championships while fellow Big 12 team Baylor leapfrogged them by beating Kansas St. who was #9 at the time.

TCU was actually playing that final week and killed their opponent. ND will be watching from the sidelines.

Yeah but nobody gives AF about TCU. "They" can engage in mental gymnastics to make the most profitable outcome viable. We benefit from being in the "most profitable outcome" category 11 times out of 10.

Big 12 is trash - look at their overall records prior to these manufactured Top 10 matchups to finish the year creating, pretty much their only quality wins. It really is stealing a page from the SEC. Plus Baylor and OK State don't draw like Oklahoma making it harder for them to leap frog - Oklahoma being so far below them sets the whole conference up for disappointment.

Just need Bama and Cincy to lose and make our life so much easier.

 

[RDU Irish]

There is nothing more I would like than to see cincy again.
The realistic situation tho they would never be 1. No chance there. Unless Georgia and bama lose this week and then Georgia loses in SECC. And Ohio st would need to lose Big ten championship game. Definitely won’t happen

I’m sick of the narrative of wanting to go to a NY6 bowl over the playoffs. Only way to win a championship is to get in the playoffs. You have 0% chance to do that if you go to NY6 bowl. We would have 5% to beat Georgia but last time I checked 5% was better than 0%. Like Bleedbluegold said earlier the NY6 bowl is a lose lose situation. We won’t gain anything from beating a ACC champ other than we stop the losing streak of a major
bowl. But is the media and other outlets going to be impressed that we bet a ACC team that beat up on a weak ACC conference this year? No

Would we get crap for getting destroyed by Georgia? Ya absolutely we will but how many schools can say they made the playoffs 3out of the last 4 years? 4 schools?

And if ppl remember correctly the last two times we went to playoffs we lost to the national champion and in the national championship game they beat the team by more than they did us in semis. So every year we have made it we are playing the best team in the country and statistically those teams had some of the best offenses ever in college football.

Go to Playoffs end of story

I am to the point I 95% agree that making the playoffs is always preferred regardless of outcome. Once there - big difference b/w playing UGA first or second. You are getting their best shot when they have a month to prepare. Shorter turn around time, IMO gives us a better chance at going the distance. Plus we have a more winnable first game which would be a rhetoric destroyer as well. That said - I would rather play UGA first than Bama, dramatically higher probability of being outcoached on a one month lead time IMO.

If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.

 

[GATTACA!]

The winner of the OSU Michigan game also has to beat Wisconsin. I think people are acting like it’s a forgone conclusion that the Big10 gets a team in, but I think particularly if Michigan pulls off the miracle against Ohio State Wisconsin is capable of beating them.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I am to the point I 95% agree that making the playoffs is always preferred regardless of outcome. Once there - big difference b/w playing UGA first or second. You are getting their best shot when they have a month to prepare. Shorter turn around time, IMO gives us a better chance at going the distance. Plus we have a more winnable first game which would be a rhetoric destroyer as well. That said - I would rather play UGA first than Bama, dramatically higher probability of being outcoached on a one month lead time IMO.

If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.

Yeah I'd rather face Smart than Saban after a month to prep. But Bama seems vulnerable this year though. Tough one.

 

[irishff1014]

The problem is we would end up most likely playing Georgia. Their DL will sack Coan 10 or more times. I believe our defense matches up better against their offense than Ohio State. We have seen year after year how bad our DB's get torched against good teams with good WR's we haven't played a team this year with a WR has good as the 3 Ohio State have.

The defense won’t be our problem the offense will. The offensive line will struggle with the more talented defensive lines. And the improvement of the QB position is clearly a result of them teams we played down the stretch.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The defense won’t be our problem the offense will. The offensive line will struggle with the more talented defensive lines. And the improvement of the QB position is clearly a result of them teams we played down the stretch.

I think Coan has improved - some - he clearly still has a problem with the leading the receiving core but - the receiving core also needs to get some separation early and catch the damn ball. Some drops this year have made Coan look bad.

As for the line, sticking in an extra TE would help. I believe KW could produce fairly well. But as you said, the O-Line right now is the weakest link and needs to vastly improve in the next few weeks wherever the Irish land in the Bowl game(s).

Rees needs to be at his best as well. As Weis used to say, "These are some really smart guys"... the only statement he ever made that made sense to me... So, dig into the playbook and let's go!!

 

[Irish#1]

The winner of the OSU Michigan game also has to beat Wisconsin. I think people are acting like it’s a forgone conclusion that the Big10 gets a team in, but I think particularly if Michigan pulls off the miracle against Ohio State Wisconsin is capable of beating them.

Even though they seem to have found their mojo, I'm not convinced Wiscy can beat either OSU or scUM. Although, if scUM were to upset OSU, I could see Hairball and Co. having a major let down after that win.

 

[Irishize]

I think Bama runs the score up on Auburn in the Iron Bowl before either upsetting UGA or losing a close one in SEC CG. Even if they lose a close one, I predict CFP Committee puts Bama at 3 and keeps undefeated Cincy at 4.

 

[dad4aa]

Here's a potential problem. If Ok State wins, it's possible they leap frog ND in the rankings next week. Say OSU wins, you're looking at Georgia, OSU, Bama, Cincy, Ok State, ND. You still need two of OSU, Bama, Cincy, Ok State to lose in CC week. Definitely possible.

Not sure what you read in my post but that is exactly what I said, after OSU wins we need two losses between Bama, Cincy and Ok State.

 

[drayer54]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/dannykanell/status/1463500873951236099?s=20[/TWEET]

Agree?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/dannykanell/status/1463500873951236099?s=20[/TWEET]

Agree?

It would get ND a second bye during the season, which would be nice. Though I wonder if the rules prohibit scheduling games on this weekend. I assume Army/Navy happens through a special exemption.

 

[Dizzyphil]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/dannykanell/status/1463500873951236099?s=20[/TWEET]

Agree?

I wouldn't be opposed to it. Play it at 'Jerry's House' and call it the 'Battle Between Belief's'....

 

[pumpdog20]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/dannykanell/status/1463500873951236099?s=20[/TWEET]

Agree?

I say schedule a FCS team as our 13th data point like everyone else.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/dannykanell/status/1463500873951236099?s=20[/TWEET]

Agree?

This would end the special restrictions on ND being ranke no better than 5th in a 12 team playoff?

 

[ACamp1900]

I say schedule a FCS team as our 13th data point like everyone else.

I respect the hell out of BYU and would LOVE this,… but I like your idea more, let’s get Georgia Southern and get all our players custom BMWs like we all know who,….