Path to the CFP?

[Irish2155]

College Football Final at least has us on their board this week.

MSU is still there too, along with scUM.

 

[dad4aa]

College Football Final at least has us on their board this week.

MSU is still there too, along with scUM.

We were on it last week as well. They put their top 10 teams on the board.

 

[Irish2155]

We were on it last week as well. They put their top 10 teams on the board.

No, Palmer and Galloway didn’t have us on the board/hence their top 10 last week

 

[dad4aa]

No, Palmer and Galloway didn’t have us on the board/hence their top 10 last week

You are right, I was thinking of a different show.

 

[BeatSC]

Watching the espn wrap up show last night and seeing how Bama and Cincy were fortunate not to lose their games should start to neutralize some of their rep/style points. Bama’a wins are looking less impressive now and Cincy hasn’t looked like a top 25 team since playing and ill prepared ND team. We would beat Cincy 5 times in a row if we played them again. I am convinced that if we cover the spread in our final 3 games and Cincy doesn’t light it up and loses one game we 100% get in ahead of them. Sadly we dinners Oregon to wet the bed and Ok to lose one. Bama should have one more loss and they will be done and Finebaum can spend the offseason getting his ears pinned while Saban gets some more hair plugs.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The close games and losses this week have me intrigued with the rankings show. I'll be infuriated by the results, w/o question. But I'm at least intrigued.

I may never be a bigger Purdue fan that I am right now. If they can beat OSU, they will undoubtedly get ranked in the top 25, which helps ND's SOS (same if Wiscy keeps winning). I can't imagine having 3 top 5 wins in a single season as an unranked team. Bravo, Boilers.

 

[Rogue219]

Georgia is the North Star right now. They have consistently defeated everyone they have played soundly. Everyone else has either lost or has squeaked by someone at least once. Georgia is by far the one team that can say they're deserving of the playoff. If they stay in this form for another month and Alabama stays in theirs, that SEC Championship Game will not be much to look at.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Georgia is the North Star right now. They have consistently defeated everyone they have played soundly. Everyone else has either lost or has squeaked by someone at least once. Georgia is by far the one team that can say they're deserving of the playoff. If they stay in this form for another month and Alabama stays in theirs, that SEC Championship Game will not be much to look at.

You underestimate Kirby Smarts ability to lose big games.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Maybe... but we beat Purdue is my argument

Agreed; Coaches and AP poll got it right, IMO. ND should be one and two ahead of MSU and Michigan, respectively, at 7. We'll see if the Committee follows suit.

Doesn't make any sense to me any other way; MSU has the worst loss of the three, but has the head to head over scUM. Common opponents, ND beat the team that just railroaded Sparty. Common sense should prevail.

All that being said, #7 is still a longggg ways from this Irish squad making the playoff. I don't think it'll be as simple as needing three teams ranked ahead of us to lose;

• If OU eventually goes down, but still wins the Big 12, they're in ahead of us.
  • I'd go as far to say that even if they lost the Big12 Championship in a close game, they'd probably land ahead of us due to our lack of quality Ws.
• Cincy has to lose (twice? I don't think so, but it's a possibility), and I don't see that happening.
• If Bama loses a close one to UGA, I could honestly see a scenario where we have our first 2 loss representative. The only thing that might prevent that is that they'd have to put them at 4, which would mean back-to-back games against UGA.
  • Still think the most likely scenario in the SEC is Bama beats UGA in the SECCG (Kirby always chokes in big games like this) and both teams get in; Bama #1, UGA 2 or 3).
• Even with the above three scenarios, we'd need one, if not both, pOSU and Oregon to lose again. I could see pOSU going down, but not Oregon. Not enough fire power in the Pac12 to knock them off.

So the short of it: I'm not getting my hopes up, nor do I believe we are playoff worthy. AND, I'm going to laugh a bit when we finish 5th or 6th and people are going to think we somehow got cheated. Unfortunately, our schedule turned out to be a paper tiger (thanks UNC and USC) and our one legit chance to make a statement, we beat ourselves in late September.

 

[Rogue219]

You underestimate Kirby Smarts ability to lose big games.

He's lost to Saban and that 2019 LSU team that is one of the best assembled in recent years. I recall a beating at Auburn recently too. I don't believe he's lost a home game since his first season at UGA.

 

[drayer54]

Georgia is the North Star right now. They have consistently defeated everyone they have played soundly. Everyone else has either lost or has squeaked by someone at least once. Georgia is by far the one team that can say they're deserving of the playoff. If they stay in this form for another month and Alabama stays in theirs, that SEC Championship Game will not be much to look at.

Bama is going to get wrecked. I'm not convinced Auburn doesn't pull one over them first and then Aggies get the nod.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Bama is going to get wrecked. I'm not convinced Auburn doesn't pull one over them first and then Aggies get the nod.

Oh man please don't give Aggies anything to boast about.

 

[CHIDomer9]

I think if ND has a chance to get into the playoff it will back its way in. I think there will be committee members looking for reasons to include ND and there will be others looking to exclude ND. Even assuming he does not return for Virginia, I think the promise of Kyle Hamilton playing would greatly improve the chances. Assuming there are 4 teams with like resumes under consideration for the final spot, if Hamilton by then has declared that he will not play college ball again, then that is a good reason to leave ND out.

 

[Rogue219]

Bama is going to get wrecked. I'm not convinced Auburn doesn't pull one over them first and then Aggies get the nod.

It's at Auburn and Alabama has looked more than beatable as of late.

It's been a weird season. Nothing would quite shock me at this point, including UGA losing. They go to Knoxville this weekend. Who knows what Vols team shows up. I would not expect UGA to have any issues with Charleston Southern and GT, however.

 

[RDU Irish]

Lots of football left to play and conference championships leave room for some upsets.

- B1G should have one ticket punched but very possible they all end up with 2 losses or more and end up odd man out. OSU has Purdue, MSU and UM to finish before playing God knows who out of the West for the championship. Or MSU/UM win out - those are the only three paths to a one loss B1G champ.

- Cincy could get snubbed b/c $$ talks. I think they win out and lock in a spot.

- They don't call it Choklahoma for nothing- @Baylor, ISU and @ OKST might be the three best teams they play all year to finish and I wager they lose at least one of those.

- Only thing going for the Ducks is beating OSU early to possibly claim a transitive B1G 'ship. Stanford loss tho.... oooofff. Seems like an easy path to win out but losing to a currently 3-6 team? Nobody else ranked in the entire conference? OSU picks up a couple more losses and they suddenly look paper thin at 12-1.

- ACC is out so one of five Big 5 conferences already gone with a third of the season left to play.

- SEC - UGA needs to win out or else we have a second team vying for a spot assuming it is a one loss Bama. Hard not to bring in 2 one-loss SEC teams with the current landscape.

We make the playoffs and it will absolutely be at #4 to be emasculated. I would love to be in the 2vs3 game this year - winnable for anyone in the Top 10 and UGA has less prep time for the follow up game. Our path is max chaos in UGA undefeated, Oklahoma drops at least one game and an Oregon WTF loss to make it UGA, Cincy, B1G champ and ND in that order, which sucks b/c we can play with anyone but UGA, IMO.

 

[ACamp1900]

The ND gets destroyed argument doesn’t hold much with me,… ND is a top ten program by any objective measure,… the haters will hate regardless until ND beats someone meaningful in a big game. Yes, there is a huge difference currently between the best 5-6 programs and top 2-3. Sadly there just is, much more than in decades past it seems. If ND makes it they’ll have to beat one of those 2-3 at least once to win anything. Won’t matter too much which round it’s in. Our boys will have to punch way above their weight at least once, probably twice. Whoever that fourth team in is,… they’re most likely getting euthanized,… ND or no ND. Which is another reason why I’m against expansion but that’s another issue.

 

[Irish2155]

You underestimate Kirby Smarts ability to lose big games.

He’s beat ND twice I do believe. Those were some pretty big games I think.

 

[GATTACA!]

The ND gets destroyed argument doesn’t hold much with me,… ND is a top ten program by any objective measure,… the haters will hate regardless until ND beats someone meaningful in a big game. Yes, there is a huge difference currently between the best 5-6 programs and top 2-3. Sadly there just is, much more than in decades past it seems. If ND makes it they’ll have to beat one of those 2-3 at least once to win anything. Won’t matter too much which round it’s in. Our boys will have to punch way above their weight at least once, probably twice. Whoever that fourth team in is,… they’re most likely getting euthanized,… ND or no ND. Which is another reason why I’m against expansion but that’s another issue.

The gap honestly seems to have shrunken a bit. Georgia is the only juggernaut this year. Alabama and OSU are still capable of dismantling us, but I actually would give ND a chance to win either of those matchups right now vs giving it a 5% chance the past few years. OU sucks, Oregon and the whole pac12 sucks, the rest of the big10 sucks, Clemson has gone down the shitter.

Feels like if the staff can keep recruiting at the level 22 and especially 23 are shaping up to be we might find ourselves with a window where we're actually competing for a title.

 

[Dale]

The gap honestly seems to have shrunken a bit. Georgia is the only juggernaut this year. Alabama and OSU are still capable of dismantling us, but I actually would give ND a chance to win either of those matchups right now vs giving it a 5% chance the past few years. OU sucks, Oregon and the whole pac12 sucks, the rest fo the big10 sucks, Clemson has gone down the shitter.

Feels like if the staff can keep recruiting at the level 22 and especially 23 are shaping up to be we might find ourselves with a window where we're actually competing for a title.

Devils advocate the only thing stronger than Bama in a normal Bama year is Bama after an uncharacteristic Bama year. Not going anywhere they will be the clear #1 team in the country more than likely again in the next 1-2 years.

OSU with a DC with a pulse could also be frightening the way the O is going. Like #1, could be as soon as next year.

The main reason the path seems clearer to me is Clemson

 

[T-Boone]

He’s beat ND twice I do believe. Those were some pretty big games I think.

both games were at home for Georgia

 

[Dale]

He's lost to Saban and that 2019 LSU team that is one of the best assembled in recent years. I recall a beating at Auburn recently too. I don't believe he's lost a home game since his first season at UGA.

Lost to South Carolina at home. It’s a nice tidbit but when you’re essentially scheduled for your two biggest games of the year to be neutral field not sure it is getting the job done

 

[T-Boone]

I really want to see:
ND demolish Virginia
Baylor beat Oklahoma
WSU beat Oregon
Purdue beat OSU
PSU beat Michigan
Minnesota beat Iowa

 

[Irish#1]

I think if ND has a chance to get into the playoff it will back its way in. I think there will be committee members looking for reasons to include ND and there will be others looking to exclude ND. Even assuming he does not return for Virginia, I think the promise of Kyle Hamilton playing would greatly improve the chances. Assuming there are 4 teams with like resumes under consideration for the final spot, if Hamilton by then has declared that he will not play college ball again, then that is a good reason to leave ND out.

I can't see the committee making a decision based on Hamilton's status.

Lots of football left to play and conference championships leave room for some upsets.

- B1G should have one ticket punched but very possible they all end up with 2 losses or more and end up odd man out. OSU has Purdue, MSU and UM to finish before playing God knows who out of the West for the championship. Or MSU/UM win out - those are the only three paths to a one loss B1G champ.

As much as I would love it, I can't see Purdue beating OSU. Even with wins against two top five teams, I don't think an unranked team has ever beat three top five teams in the same year. You never know though.

 

[Irish du Nord]

If the following happens:

1. We win out.
2. Wisconsin wins the Little 10
3. UVA wins ACC
4. Undefeated UGA wins SECCG

we will be snubbed despite deserving to be in the playoff.

 

[Rogue219]

Lost to South Carolina at home. It’s a nice tidbit but when you’re essentially scheduled for your two biggest games of the year to be neutral field not sure it is getting the job done

You said he doesn't win big games, now you've brought up what was essentially an upset. I'll just repeat that if Georgia remains in the form they are currently in, it's going to be difficult seeing him screw that up. They have yet to sniff adversity yet. I suppose we'll see what happens when and if they face it.

Guess we'll see how it goes in the next few months.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

If the following happens:

1. We win out.
2. Wisconsin wins the Little 10
3. UVA wins ACC
4. Undefeated UGA wins SECCG

we will be snubbed despite deserving to be in the playoff.

What about Oregon, Oklahoma, and Cincy winning out...

"Snubbed" and "deserving" don't seem to fit for this ND team at the moment. A lot needs to happen beyond what you just listed.

 

[Irish du Nord]

What about Oregon, Oklahoma, and Cincy winning out...

"Snubbed" and "deserving" don't seem to fit for this ND team at the moment. A lot needs to happen beyond what you just listed.

UGA, Oklahoma, and Cincy would all be deserving ahead of us. As far as Oregon, our win over Wisconsin would be better than their win over OSU and we would have a win over a common opponent that they lost to.

What else would need to happen? A two loss Bama doesn’t deserve it, even if their loss is in the SECCG.

 

[Dale]

You said he doesn't win big games, now you've brought up what was essentially an upset. I'll just repeat that if Georgia remains in the form they are currently in, it's going to be difficult seeing him screw that up. They have yet to sniff adversity yet. I suppose we'll see what happens when and if they face it.

Guess we'll see how it goes in the next few months.

First, I didn’t say anything prior.

Second, I was responding to what read “I don't believe he's lost a home game since his first season at UGA.” That isn’t true because he lost to South Carolina. That doesn’t say he hasn’t lost a big home game, it just says home game.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

UGA, Oklahoma, and Cincy would all be deserving ahead of us. As far as Oregon, our win over Wisconsin would be better than their win over OSU and we would have a win over a common opponent that they lost to.

What else would need to happen? A two loss Bama doesn’t deserve it, even if their loss is in the SECCG.

Everything you've mentioned in these two posts, imo, can be defined as "a lot."

 

[Rogue219]

First, I didn’t say anything prior.

Second, I was responding to what read “I don't believe he's lost a home game since his first season at UGA.” That isn’t true because he lost to South Carolina. That doesn’t say he hasn’t lost a big home game, it just says home game.

Apologies. It was InKellyWeTrust who said Smart loses big games.