Oct 26 | Michigan

[Irish#1]

Looks like up to an inch of rain will fall during the game. This heavily benefits Michigan, IMO, because it makes it harder for ND to hit explosive plays.

Getting close to locking in a big fatty on Michigan +1 if the line stays where it is.

Well considering we don't hit explosive plays much, it shouldn't hurt. If scUM has to run, that plays better into our defense and I like our O-line to dominate as the game goes on.

 

[Luckylucci]

I just think ND's main advantage is coaching, and Harbaugh secretly loves to play these kinds of "no one can score" games. The coaching advantage against Don Brown's hilariously aggressive and vanilla defense goes out the window if we can't throw the ball down the field.

The big advantage is using their aggression against themselves. Not sure that necessarily means it has to be deep shots. A lot of it is on putting the LB's and S's in man coverage. That could mean shallow crossing routes, rb's out of the backfield, etc.

And, those can turn into explosive plays.

 

[ACamp1900]

I kind of like us in a bogged down game... it puts more on the fronts on either side, though their back could have a day.

 

[Luckylucci]

Well considering we don't hit explosive plays much, it shouldn't hurt. If scUM has to run, that plays better into our defense and I like our O-line to dominate as the game goes on.

I didn't have the numbers the other day when I disagreed with Piombino but I didn't think this was necessarily true that we lack explosive plays and in Jamie U's '6 Thoughts on a Thursday' article he explains that we've had 42 plays of 20 yards or longer which is the most for any team with 6 or fewer games played. We just don't have a lot of plays over 40 yards. Again, a TE avg 12/rec, a RB avg. 7/carry, and a WR avg. 15/rec. is pretty darn good.

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10773/6-thoughts-on-a-thursday

 

[ThePiombino]

I didn't have the numbers the other day when I disagreed with Piombino but I didn't think this was necessarily true that we lack explosive plays and in Jamie U's '6 Thoughts on a Thursday' article he explains that we've had 42 plays of 20 yards or longer which is the most for any team with 6 or fewer games played. We just don't have a lot of plays over 40 yards. Again, a TE avg 12/rec, a RB avg. 7/carry, and a WR avg. 15/rec. is pretty darn good.

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10773/6-thoughts-on-a-thursday

We don't have home run hitters. Or at least none that are being regularly (or correctly) utilized. Is that fair to say?

 

[Luckylucci]

I would say though my one major drawback to a sloppy game is it probably means we don't play the younger WR's as much. BK tends to be cautious in these scenarios. And with how everyone was drooling over Hamler against UM, I think Keys out of the slot would be the same type of recipe for success. Put Lenzy on that list as well.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I would say though my one major drawback to a sloppy game is it probably means we don't play the younger WR's as much. BK tends to be cautious in these scenarios. And with how everyone was drooling over Hamler against UM, I think Keys out of the slot would be the same type of recipe for success. Put Lenzy on that list as well.

Cautious like in 2016 at NC State when he threw the ball more than he ran...

 

[Irishize]

Based on recent matchups w/ scUM, f ND wins the TO battle, they should win the game.

 

[NDRock]

Cautious like in 2016 at NC State when he threw the ball more than he ran...

I have PTSD from that game.

 

[ThePiombino]

Cautious like in 2016 at NC State when he threw the ball more than he ran...

Not sure if you're being facetious or not, but that's not true. We ran 38 rushing attempts to 26 passing attempts. It just feels like we threw more often because of how obvious it seemed that running it would have been the prudent decision.

 

[ThePiombino]

Based on recent matchups w/ scUM, f ND wins the TO battle, they should win the game.

Yes, turnovers are killer. I think Brian Kelly teams have only lost 3 games in which they won the turnover batter.

 

[Luckylucci]

Cautious like in 2016 at NC State when he threw the ball more than he ran...

With personnel.

 

[notredomer23]

Looks like up to an inch of rain will fall during the game. This heavily benefits Michigan, IMO, because it makes it harder for ND to hit explosive plays.

Getting close to locking in a big fatty on Michigan +1 if the line stays where it is.

While that may be the case, I think if anything a rainy game favors the team that has better ball security. ND is 8th in the country in that regard. Michigan is 124th.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Not sure if you're being facetious or not, but that's not true. We ran 38 rushing attempts to 26 passing attempts. It just feels like we threw more often because of how obvious it seemed that running it would have been the prudent decision.

With personnel.

Understood guys. My mistake.

 

[koonja]

Guys, you've been around long enough to know Lax is a chronic doomsday poster as game day approaches. Specifically more for big games and/or hated rivalry games.

I guarantee if the script was reversed Lax, you'd say something along the lines of "Our only chance to move the ball was through the air, and now our WRs who already have issues with dropped passes have to catch a wet ball. Furthermore, our QB has coughed it up 7 times in dry environments and is about to play the best defense he's faced in the pouring rain. We have no shot because we're going to be forced to run and the only thing we have on offense is a passing game that shows up OCCASIONALLY. On the flip side, ND WRs are good but cannot separate. Having rain gives the WRs an advantage and now they're actually going to get separation while having an experienced QB and what looks to be a solid running game. I seriously think ND might win like 31-10".

Come on, you guys know this is how it'd go.

 

[Irishize]

Yes, turnovers are killer. I think Brian Kelly teams have only lost 3 games in which they won the turnover batter.

I think you’re right. 2010 Stanford & the other two were during the forgettable 2016 season.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I just think ND's main advantage is coaching, and Harbaugh secretly loves to play these kinds of "no one can score" games. The coaching advantage against Don Brown's hilariously aggressive and vanilla defense goes out the window if we can't throw the ball down the field.

2017: Michigan State 14, scUM 10, downpour in Ann Arbor

 

[Irish#1]

I didn't have the numbers the other day when I disagreed with Piombino but I didn't think this was necessarily true that we lack explosive plays and in Jamie U's '6 Thoughts on a Thursday' article he explains that we've had 42 plays of 20 yards or longer which is the most for any team with 6 or fewer games played. We just don't have a lot of plays over 40 yards. Again, a TE avg 12/rec, a RB avg. 7/carry, and a WR avg. 15/rec. is pretty darn good.

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10773/6-thoughts-on-a-thursday

Thanks, I was thinking more in terms of 30+ yards as explosive.

I would say though my one major drawback to a sloppy game is it probably means we don't play the younger WR's as much. BK tends to be cautious in these scenarios. And with how everyone was drooling over Hamler against UM, I think Keys out of the slot would be the same type of recipe for success. Put Lenzy on that list as well.

Cautious like in 2016 at NC State when he threw the ball more than he ran...

Beat me to it. Edit: Did not realize the run vs. pass plays were that close. Sure seemed like it was pass, pass, run, pass.

I do wonder how many plays BK actually calls during a game because it looks to me that he pretty much lets Long do his thing while on the field. With the forecast, I have to think BK is emphasizing the run during practice.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

We don't have home run hitters. Or at least none that are being regularly (or correctly) utilized. Is that fair to say?

it is, but again, we didn't have that last year either and we won much more handily than a 7pt victory would suggest.

Dex was out. We didn't have Kmet. We had a QB coming into the game with < 50% completion percentage.

Not sure where this WE NEED AN EXPLOSIVE HR HITTER to beat scUM fairy-tale came from but we did it last year against a better team in scUM.

 

[ThePiombino]

it is, but again, we didn't have that last year either and we won much more handily than a 7pt victory would suggest.

Dex was out. We didn't have Kmet. We had a QB coming into the game with < 50% completion percentage.

Not sure where this WE NEED AN EXPLOSIVE HR HITTER to beat scUM fairy-tale came from but we did it last year against a better team in scUM.

Wimbush was an x-factor in the home run hitter department, but I otherwise agree with your sentiment. I don't think we NEED a home run, but we need a QB that keeps the D on its heels OR at least makes them pay when they pin their ears back. Hoping Book stays strong in the pocket on Satuday and takes what Michigan gives him, which SHOULD be plenty of opportunities to gash em.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I didn't have the numbers the other day when I disagreed with Piombino but I didn't think this was necessarily true that we lack explosive plays and in Jamie U's '6 Thoughts on a Thursday' article he explains that we've had 42 plays of 20 yards or longer which is the most for any team with 6 or fewer games played. We just don't have a lot of plays over 40 yards. Again, a TE avg 12/rec, a RB avg. 7/carry, and a WR avg. 15/rec. is pretty darn good.

https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10773/6-thoughts-on-a-thursday

Over half of those 20+ yard plays came against New Mexico and Bowling Green however. That stat line is a bit misleading IMO.

 

[Irishize]

I heard O’malley compare Shea Patterson to 2014 Everett Golson and thought that was a fair comp. Elusive dual threat w/ a big arm but prone to turnovers. Mind you, I didn’t go back and do a deep dive on Everett vs Shea stats but as a snap judgement, I could see that.

 

[NDdomer2]

If the rain is THAT bad, Michigan will also be forced to run it more than they'd like. You really see their POS line pushing ours around?

i just hope we dont see half the team trying to strip the ball and giving the extra yards to keep the chains moving.

 

[Luckylucci]

Over half of those 20+ yard plays came against New Mexico and Bowling Green however. That stat line is a bit misleading IMO.

I'd be interested in seeing the game by game breakdown. Do you have that handy?

 

[Irish2155]

I heard O’malley compare Shea Patterson to 2014 Everett Golson and thought that was a fair comp. Elusive dual threat w/ a big arm but prone to turnovers. Mind you, I didn’t go back and do a deep dive on Everett vs Shea stats but as a snap judgement, I could see that.

Patterson reminds me of a Gunner Kiel or Dayne Christ type....5 star "stud" everyone wanted out of HS that turned out to not be very good.

EG, IMO, is a much better QB than Patterson who helped his team to a NC game. Or maybe I'm just not giving Shea enough credit?

 

[T Town Tommy]

I'd be interested in seeing the game by game breakdown. Do you have that handy?

No but I am sure somebody could probably look it up. I remember reading somewhere after the NM game that the Irish had something like 12 plays of +20 yards or more. And, iirc, just watching the BG game, I would say the Irish had close to 10 or more.

 

[Luckylucci]

No but I am sure somebody could probably look it up. I remember reading somewhere after the NM game that the Irish had something like 12 plays of +20 yards or more. And, iirc, just watching the BG game, I would say the Irish had close to 10 or more.

Haha, well you said that as a statement of fact. You got me.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Haha, well you said that as a statement of fact. You got me.

So according to the ESPN game stats for play by play ND had 12 plays of 20+ yards against NM and 12 plays of 20+ yards against BG. I am too lazy to look up the other games.

Not being negative as I think the Irish will beat Michigan, explosive plays or not. Just thought the stat line was a bit misleading.

 

[Luckylucci]

Don't care about being negative was genuinely curious in the numbers. Assumed you'd have that.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Wimbush was an x-factor in the home run hitter department, but I otherwise agree with your sentiment. I don't think we NEED a home run, but we need a QB that keeps the D on its heels OR at least makes them pay when they pin their ears back. Hoping Book stays strong in the pocket on Satuday and takes what Michigan gives him, which SHOULD be plenty of opportunities to gash em.

Agree 100% that Book needs to get out of his perceived comfort zone and take a shot down the sidelines, preferably early. Claypool can win a 50/50 ball against Lavert Hill or Ambry Thomas, just have to have the faith to let him go up and get one.

I am interested to see how much attention Brown pays to Kmet. Not sure if Khaleke Hudson at LB is a good match up for them to cover him, and if you take away Josh Metellus to cover him, I would assume that would come out of a cover zero look which is when they are susceptible to the quick crossing routes, which Book can thrive on.

I expect them to mix in some zone too, but Book is going to have to identify some potential mismatches pre-snap to counter the pressure Don Brown will inevitably bring early and often. I expect/hope Kmet will serve him well in that regard.